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Got stopped out today for a loss of 6.8%. More details: http://shadowstocks.com/134-stopped-out-of-usg
Covered this at $14.35 for a loss of 9.5% Had it been an actual pairs trade with USEG (i.e., had I bought USEG when I shorted BEXP and sold it when I covered), that pairs trade would have gone for a 1.6% loss. I actually bought USEG a year and a half ago, at about $2.80, and continue to hold it. More details: http://shadowstocks.com/62-that-didnt-work
The point of the post wasn't to pat myself on the back for the puts going up. And I didn't make any money because I haven't sold them. I don't intend to sell them right now - it's a hedge, not a trade.
When I saw those puts drop to $3 on Wednesday, I meant to write a comment here that night letting folks here know that the price had gone down, if they wanted to piggy back on my quasi-hedge idea. I didn't get around to doing that (I've been swamped with the launch of a new business), but the puts went up in price Thursday anyway.
Just trying to help here by suggesting this quasi-hedge idea. AYSI is my largest stock holding, and I'd like a hedge against a big drop off in Chinese iron ore demand. I thought others might too. If BHP goes up in price next week, these puts will probably drop and you may be able to buy them for less than I did. I may buy more then too.
Sorry I mentioned it here. Really, I am.
Time to give this board a rest anyway. GLTA.
Wednesday wouldn't have been a bad day to piggy back on my idea for a quasi-hedge on AYSI -- those BHP puts I bought for $3.40 were down to $3. Today they're at $4.60.
Bear in mind that there are plenty of investors who screen stocks based on earnings, revenues and other fundamentals. I don't know too many who screen based on preliminary revenue or pre-tax profit announcements. The actual earnings filing will get more attention. Maybe not enough to get many new buyers at first, but once the company strings together a few consistently strong quarters, that will probably change.
Could be.
I'd have no problem giving you credit for the idea if I had heard it from you (I would have also acted on it a lot sooner in that case).
That hedge was up 17.65% today.
1) I only moderated older comments on that blog, so I'd know about them when they were posted.
2) Never saw your comment in the comment queue. Just checked it again right now.
This was the post:
http://thehackensack.blogspot.com/2009/12/what-would-have-been-spectacular-timing.html
I don't see your comment there.
What if there's a short-term drop-off in Chinese demand for iron ore?
I've been thinking about that for a while. In that case, AYSI stock would probably get hammered in the short-term (though maybe not as bad as it did last year), and I'd want to own something that had gone up in value so I could sell it and use the proceeds to buy more AYSI. I mentioned my idea for a quasi-hedge on the exogenous risk of a drop-off in Chinese iron ore demand on my blog today -- puts on BHP: http://shadowstocks.com/59-rethinking-a-quasi-hedge-on-aysi
Shorted BEXP today at $13.11. Sort of a pairs trade, as I already own USEG. More details on my blog: http://shadowstocks.com/49-new-short-position-bexp
Shorted this today at $12.45. More details on my blog: http://shadowstocks.com/57-new-short-position-usg
I had been planning to get new blogs for months. I had written about this on the old blog.
Re the response to the press release, I am not surprised the stock didn't move much on the news. When investors are screening for new stocks to buy, earnings catch their eyes; press releases generally don't.
Earnings will ultimately drive AYSI's stock price.
For those who are interested, I just spent a few minutes talking with Bud Sprouse, the fellow mentioned in the press release. I posted a few notes on our conversation on my new blog, http://shadowstocks.com/
Covered this at $4.45 today for a ~16% gain. Got stopped out of the long side of this pairs trade (OII) for a 9.5% loss today, so I netted 6.5% on the pairs trade. Details: http://thehackensack.blogspot.com/2010/01/update-on-oiitrma-pairs-trade.html
Covered this at $4.45 today for a ~16% gain. Got stopped out of the long side of this pairs trade (OII) for a 9.5% loss today, so I netted 6.5% on the pairs trade. Details: http://thehackensack.blogspot.com/2010/01/update-on-oiitrma-pairs-trade.html
When you own 60% of a company, why dilute if you want to give incentive shares? Why not just carve them out of a fraction of a percent of your own holdings?
Yeah, I was going to ask him to clarify that. I assume he was referring to fiscal '09, but it isn't entirely clear from the release.
Questions on the release?
I'm thinking of trying to reach Alan by phone tonight to clarify a couple of things re the PR. Thought I'd check first and see if anyone else had questions about the release. If so, leave them here, and I'll try to get them answered.
I think we're looking at record earnings for Q1, unless cost of sales for the quarter is off the charts for some reason.
It's actually a little unclear. From the release,
"Investors should be aware that the new Arcoplate Mill was completed and commissioned in the current financial year."
The current financial year for AYSI is 2010. Mill #2 was completed and commissioned in the last fiscal year.
Maybe they are talking about Mill #3, which Gregg Muller said was 3/4ths finished, at the time? I'm guessing that they mean that the costs of Mill #3 will reduce the bottom line in Q1 fiscal 2010.
It's Wednesday morning there, I think. But great news anyway. Looks like 37% sequential growth in revs, despite the December shutdown.
I'm working on a way to quasi-hedge the exogenous risk of the Chinese economy sputtering. I mentioned the general idea a few weeks ago on my blog, but it still looks a little expensive now: http://thehackensack.blogspot.com/2009/12/what-would-have-been-spectacular-timing.html
Shorted this today at $5.31 as half of a pairs trade going long OII at $64.70. Details: http://bit.ly/7XnKJB
To be conservative, I've been assuming similar costs with the next two mills, but that's a good question. I can try to run that by him if and when he responds to my other follow up question (about the number of new employees), or perhaps I can try to run it by Mr. Muller.
Thanks. Might have to wait for Q1 or Q2 2011 to get the full upside of the additional revenue generated by four mills without the associated costs of building them cutting into earnings. If they end up building a fifth mill in Indonesia, we might have to wait a little longer for the full effect of five mills. No reason I can see why we can't have sequential growth between now and then though, assuming demand stays strong.
Gene responded yesterday to the e-mail I had sent on 12/23, asking if the company was still on track to build two additional mills in 2010. Short answer: yes, subject to orders continuing to come in as they did in the second half of '09. You can read his full response on my blog: http://thehackensack.blogspot.com/
I don't know anything about the company, so I have no opinion either way. Just saw that and thought I'd pass it along.
FYI, yesterday someone left a long, bearish comment on JBII here: http://bit.ly/8uD76D
If he was short it when he wrote that, he had exquisite timing.
I have no position in this stock, long or short.
Before Gene puts out a press release, maybe he can remind the receptionist to record a voice mail greeting saying that the HQ is closed for Christmas break. When I tried last night it just rang. Gregg at least had his voice mail greeting set up, and he returned the call right away.
Even Alan's accounting firm has its greeting set up.
By the way, one detail from my conversation with Gregg that I forgot to mention, which helps explain why Gene is so concerned with protecting the company's intellectual property. Gregg mentioned that they shipped a small order to one company (in China, I think) and didn't get a request for a follow up order until 8 months later -- the assumption at AYSI was that the customer was trying to reverse engineer the plate and figure out how to build it themselves for most of that time, and only when they gave up did they order more.
You guys are all welcome.
If anyone wants to do me a favor in return, I could use one today. Send me an e-mail at impossibledistances@yahoo.com for details if you are so inclined. Won't cost you any money, but it will probably cost you about 10-20 minutes of your time.
If not, no worries.
Agreed on the plate, but maybe they're saving that announcement for the launch of the third mill.
As far as the proposed fifth mill in Indo, I can see how they might think it's a little too early to announce that. Let them have plans drawn and be about to break ground on it and then announce.
More generally, my guess is that Gene got caught up on the details of the construction of the third mill and/or the design of the fourth, and he didn't get around to issuing an end-of-year 8-k or press release. Then by the time they put out the 10-k it was Christmas/summer break in Australia, and the place seems to shut down for weeks. For example, before talking to Gregg I tried calling Alan's accounting firm, and the voice mail there said they were closed until 1/11.
You're welcome.
For CPT Matt,
Who can access this site but not that blog post, here is the text of that second update. Some formatting and a link may be lost on the paste, but here you go:
Second Update: Alloy Steel's Malaga headquarters is shut down for its Christmas break, but I was able to get a hold of Alloy Steel's Brisbane-based International Manager Gregg Muller. Gregg says Alloy Steel's domestic sales reps report to him and he also handles international sales, freeing up Gene to focus more on R&D and manufacturing. Gregg was kind enough to spend an hour on the phone with me just now, and he answered a number of questions. Some notes from our conversation follow.
New mills:
- The third mill is currently about 3/4ths built. Gregg says these mills take about four months to build and another two months to test. They take that long to build because Alloy Steel builds the mills itself, partly to protect its proprietary technology, and partly because they have to build components that they can't get off the shelf. Greg estimates the third mill will be producing product by March or April. After that, he believes the company will start building the fourth mill. He says the third mill will be bigger than the second mill. Not sure, but he believes the intent is to finance the construction of mills three and four out of cash flow, as the previous one was.
Additional employees:
- Greg says it only takes 3 employees per shift to run a mill. The mills are computer controlled, and not labor intensive. At maximum capacity, they would run two 12 hour shifts. Prior to the Christmas break, the mills were running about 18-20 hours per day. He anticipates they might approach 24 hours per day by the end of January. Prior to the BHP deal, they were down to about 10 hours per day. Gregg agreed that it would seem the company would need to hire more than three additional workers to run two new mills.
Current international business:
- Greg said the company has been active working with distributers in Chile and India, and he expects to close deal with a Brazilian distributer when he travels there in February. He started talking with this distributer six months ago. That distributer would be supplying Vale in Brazil, in addition to possibly other companies.
Indonesia:
- The outpost in Indonesia will start as a sales office, which is scheduled to open at the end of January. Greg says it only takes about 12 days to ship product there from Perth. If all goes well, Gregg says the company may build a mill in Indonesia toward the end of next year. If so, that would be the company's fifth mill.
Mongolia:
- Greg was last in Mongolia in October. The largest undeveloped copper mine in the world Oyu Tolgoi finally got the go-ahead from the Mongolian government a few months ago, after 7 years of delays. Gregg has heard that they are expecting to be moving dirt by 2011. Alloy Steel is looking to circle back with Geomandel in 2010 so they are ready for 2011. Also talking to OEMs that will be working on the project.
3-D cladding process:
- Not currently manufacturing or marketing it; currently focused on wear plates. Believes it could be a logical follow-up product sale to current clients down the road though. Might get more tweaking by Gene before then.
New developments with Super Arcoplate:
- Greg says they can now produce plate with a thickness of 1.25 inches, or 31 millimeters. He says they are trying to perfect producing a plate with 1.5 inch thickness, which will get them into casting, and open up new business possibilities. The 3rd mill is being set up so that it can produce plate an inch and a half thick once that level of thickness is perfected.
New info from Alloy Steel
Just spent an hour on the phone with AYSI's International Manager Gregg Muller, who was kind enough to answer some questions and fill in some blanks. I posted notes on our conversation under "Second Update" on this blog post: http://thehackensack.blogspot.com/2009/12/alloy-steels-10-k.html
The world's fastest, apparently:
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/BUSINESS/12/27/china.speed.train.ft/index.html
I have one question in to him now. I'll see if I hear back from him on that one before hitting him with more.
Looks like everyone who wanted in or out based on the 10-K made his move yesterday.