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HI Toof.
Hi again Toof.
Hiya Toof.
Good Onya!
I tried to snag some SLV the other day at $16.10, but it expired.
Now the price is around 16.60 and my highest next Buy price is 16.35.
My last buy was on 9/19 at 17.25.
BTW:
I haven't been using the 30 day rule on this program.
And as originally indicated, I've got minimum Buy % set at 5.0%, 0% Safe.
So far all Buys this year. 4 of them.
Hi jaiml.
FWIW:
I know I've posted this image before, but sometimes it bears repeating.
That is to say that the % of PC approach to doing AIM calculations is very close to Lichello's, but not exactly the same.
In addition, the insertion of Minimum $ in your settings complicates the calculation.
The AIM process, as Lichello defined it, never set a sell or buy price. His formula relied on the market price as the starting point. For those of us that wanted to put GTC orders out there, it needed to be reconstructed so that target prices and #'s to trade could be pre-calculated.
So, here is that reconstruction step by step (From LD-AIM Example):
Buy when stock price is less than or equal to
(PC-M)/[NumberOfShares * (1+SAFE)]
(10000-1000)/[1000 * (1+0.1)]
9000 / 1100
8.18
$1000 / 8.18 = 122 shares to Buy (rounded)
Sell when stock price is greater than or equal to
(PC+M)/[NumberOfShares * (1-SAFE)]
(10000+1000) / [1000 * (1-0.1)]
11000 / 900
12.22
$1000 / 12.22 = 82 shares to Sell (rounded)
The Sell side price and # is the same but the Buy side is different by 11 cents and 2 shares.
I'm really not trying to be anal about this since the different calcs don't mean much over the long term (as AIM is fairly forgiving).
But it must be stated from time to time that the % of PC approach is convenient, but it is not % of SV as Lichello originally defined it.
Hi jaiml.
Not to change the subject from the Ocroft approach to Buys, but you said...
Hi Ray!
I hope this reply from me is not repeating what you learned from someone else
Not repeating at all.
Actually a better response I think.
Being that I am a 'Certified Old Fart' (see previous thread), I had forgotten about the Chart School.
Thanks.
Thanks Allen
This is truly a great group.
Yes it is.
Certifiably so too!
As a COF (Certified Old Fart) having this kind of help is truly a blessing.
Us Old Farts need to stick together.
Hi Tom
Nice charts.
They really show how powerful of an indicator the W%r can be.
Of course the % change down or up from the crossovers may not be big enough to trigger AIM.
I don't have any idea how one would attempt to use GTC orders with Ocroft's methods.
In my mind (not that I've tried it yet), you can 'precalculate' the crossover prices and use them as a trigger. Some algebra probably needed there and I don't recall how to do all of that.
Of course you would need to do this each time you added/dropped a time period, so in your case eavery week.
Thanks for the link to NetStock, I'll need to check that out when I get a chance.
HI Allen.
Where does one find good info about the Williams %r metric?
I've used T&A A-Z when I first looked at technical analysis, but I'm not sure it's still available for free.
But the W%r is simply comparison/calculation of highest highs and lowest lows over the timeframe desired, typically 14 or 15 trading days.
So it's quite a bit more telling of near term price trend.
Defined here:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/williamsr.asp
As to alerts, what are you using for this function?
I use Yahoo Finance and Nasdaq for alerts. I also use a tablet app I found that allows you to set alerts. It's called Stock Alert from Pocketools and there are both phone and tablet versions avaiable for free in Google Play for Android devices which mine are. here are very many other apps available for this.
I also use Seeking Alpha apps on both my tablet and phone. They are a financial news feed service, also for free and you can feed news specific to your portfolio.
Of course there are abundant articles attached to each holding in your portfolio within TD Ameritrade as well.
How would GTC orders work with the Sell on first down move after an upswing and Buy on first up move after a downswing? I can't see how one would set a price, unless it was above/below a selected point that was rather wide.
You can calculate the price at which it will cross the W%r threshold and set them there. Of course the implication is that your other thresholds are in play like Minimum $ and % along with Buy or Sell signals from AIM.
Probably as a Stop Loss on the Sell side and a Stop Limit(?) on the Buy side. I don't do this specifically, but maybe ocroft does and csn provide insight.
Also, I notice VIX is trending up but I don't understand the modeling it uses. Is there a good tutorial on VIX around? All I've seen so far is the sort of generic, "measures volatility" stuff.
I don't know the answer but look here:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vix.asp
And...
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/070213/tracking-volatility-how-vix-calculated.asp
Also, I notice VIX is trending up but I don't understand the modeling it uses. Is there a good tutorial on VIX around? All I've seen so far is the sort of generic, "measures volatility" stuff.
One can actually trade the VIX!
http://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2012/trade-volatility-with-the-vix-vxx-vxz-tvix-xxv0612.aspx
Although it looks scary to me personally, but apparently very sophisticated investors, traders use it as a hedge and to reduce risk.
We AIMers reduce risk in other ways, so maybe we don't need to hedge via the VIX.
Hi Allen.
I've been following this discussion since the beginning and got caught up yesterday and this morning.
So FWIW:
One consideration you might make is to follow the Williams %r metric and (assuming other AIM settings/thresholds are met), Buy when it crosses the -80 level up from the bottom, and Sell when it crosses the -20 level down from the top.
I've not made this trigger mechanical in any simulator, but always 'validate' my trades using the W%r. Especially on the Buy side. Not so much on the Sell side as I like to take the $ when it's offered by the Greedy.
One could use other thresholds like -90 and -10. They could work just as well.
Never tested that out either but it might be worth a look.
Also I've never thought there was anything 'magic' about a month or a week. Over the last 14+ years, if I had constrained my activities to either of those two checkup points, I would have missed a lot of transactions. My Sell orders are almost always sitting out there GTC, and I have various alerts set up so I get a text message and/or email when the next Buy price is crossed.
In this way, I don't need to watch constantly. I simply get notified when I need to take a look.
Keep in mind that when Lichello wrote all 4 editions, we didn't have the communication technology available that we have today.
Hi Clive.
Hi Allen.
They have a lot more features than extended trading hours.
TD Ameritrade is the result of the merger between TD Waterhouse and Ameritrade. I had accounts with both prior to the merger and was happy with both, but TD Waterhouse really had the best on line service from an ease of use standpoint.
And I have used their local offices from time to time for account maintenance purposes mostly. Some of the folks at those offices try and drum up more business (revenue) or want to manage your money, but I have always cut that off at the pass.
They don't even call me anymore 'to touch base' because they know I'm not interested in that other stuff.
In over 15 years of working with TD on line, I can only think of 2 times I questioned a trade that didn't fill when it should have and after following up they made good and filled them even though the price had changed to their disadvantage.
Now I have literally made thousands of trades in my AIM account over those 15 years, so it is to their advantage to keep me happy.
I don't have any experience with other on line brokers so can't comment on any of them.
I also have some mutual fund holdings at Fidelity but that's mostly B&H stuff so don't interact much with them.
Hi Tom.
RE: Extended hours trades/orders.
Hi
Allen.
Nope. USA all the way baby!
I use TDAmeritrade as my broker.
Extended hours is simply a choice you have when you enter an order.
I would think that most other brokers also present that choice.
I Love Extended Hours !!!
I know I've mentioned this before but all of my GTC Sell orders are always entered as effective in extended hours along with regular hours.
Most of the big moves seem to happen pre-market or after hours.
Good example today...
YHOO has been bouncing around lately due to their significant ownership stake in Chinese Internet Giant Alibaba.
Alibaba is going public soon and there any number of different opinions out there as to what impoact that will have on YHOO.
So YHOO is pretty volatile right now.
Anyway, My GTC Sell order tripped in the pre-market today @ $42.25, selling 19% of Actual shares, 9% of the program's total shares (Actual+Virtual), for a 25% LIFO gain on actual shares purchased in April.
Interesting thing abut today was that not long after the regular opening, the bloom came off the rose and YHOO closed down $1.03 at $40.78, 3.5% below where I sold it in the premarket!
Like I said, I Love Extended Hours.
Thanks Tom.
I remember going to the local library and revewing their copy of V/L. It's like reading the Bible!
I don't recall what an annual subscrition to V/L is but it's pretty spendy right? Especially the digital version? My guess is the digital version would be way popular for screeners.
Regardless, I took a quick look at these 2 and:
Have actually managed AIM on:
BYI, CTXS, GILD and SNDK. SNDK is the only one I still own. Others sold out of actual shares profitably. GILD was a rocket!
Have considered AIM-ing:
KMX, CBI, CGNX, FAST, GME, GMCR, TSCO, and VLO.
This over the last number of yesrs (probably 8 or 10).
Don't recall reasons for not doing so, but likely various ones at the time.
Thanks Jon.
GIEW is @ 36% as of today's close.
I'm prtty comfortable with that.
Allen:
BTB = By the Book...
Straight up use of the Lichello algorithm (without our numerous tweaks).
I don't recall what AIMST means unless it was just a typo and he was referring to AIMSTER, another of our group out here.
Thanks for posting the official results Clive!
I don't have my excel sheet with those winners.
It may have been lost when my hard drive went kablooey a few years back.
I only backed up certain folders and that wasn't in one of those.
I still have that drive.
It runs, but Seagate had a problem with some counter firmware on it so even though I've tried accessing via USB and other approaches, it never gets recognized.
Ther's a very complicated way to fix that with jumper cables, etc, but I'm not qualified to attempt that and risk trashing it.
I should contact Seagate and see if they could do it.
Should do it for free since they caused the counter issue.
Allen:
Go to Post # 37000 on this board.
that has the records of 'Grubmeisters' on this board.
That will also kind of explain the grub game we've been playing hereabouts for over 12 years.
There are all types of 'grubs'; number combinations, patterns, etc. We're simple out here at AIM. We just go for the thousands.
So far I have a perfect record insofar as I've grabbed all 3 of the 10k grubs; 10, 20 and 30.
There is actually a board out here at iHub just about grubs...
http://investorshub.advfn.com/The-Grub-Board-GRUBS-2048/
This is all so we don't take ourselves too seriously.
And it helps fulfill the social needs of this group.
Hi Tom.
Hi Tom
Right you are Clive.
I failed to mention those caveats.
I don't put GTC Limit Buy orders out there unless and until the price drops close to or actually hits my next Buy Price. I use various Stock Alerts to let me know.
I get them on my phone and I also have an App on my tablet that allows me to set both high and low alert levels.
I pretty much adhere to the 30 day rule on consecutive Buys as well, but I consider that as arbitrary as weekly, monthly and even quarterly check ups. But its use does give one pause to think twice before potentially throwing good $ after bad.
I've 'thought twice' plenty of times in my portfolio.
Short and Long Term Gains are another thing that I fail think about because I do all my AIM-ing inside my IRA and already know that all Gains will be taxed at withdrawel at whatver my normal tax rate is at the time. Assuming that is after I retire, it will be at the lowest rate possible given that my earmed income in those years will be next to nil.
Here in the US Short and Long Term gains are defined as up tp 12 months for Short and greater than 12 months for Long.
Ha!
Didn't even notice the post counts.
Thanks Toof! and Best Regards,
The (sometimes lucky) Grabber
Hi again Allen:
That's becaue you didn't go back to Clive's original response to you regarding Vealies along with creating and posting images...
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=105730020
I just pulled in his worksheet from that link and ran it for a few of my holdings, just to see.
the 8 years had more to do with how long I've owned them than anything else.
I was just playing around with it.
Hi Allen.
Apologies Toof.
Who does besides Tom?
I swear I saw a post not too long ago that there was an AIM sale on CGNX.
Thought it was you.
So I did a search and it was actually AdamHelberg.
One month ago tomorrow.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=104771597&txt2find=CGNX
Again, my apologies.
Yeah.
I figured that all out Clive.
I ran a few stocks through it using weekly prices over 8 years.
It's pretty slick!
The graphs are terrific too.
Maybe I can build LD-AIM into it somehow.
Great place to start.
I tried to save it off as .xlxs but it didn't like it due to VB stuff that's changed from the .xls version.
Thanks though.
As soon as I can find some time, I'll see what I can do.
Hi Clive.
I hadn't noticed (or forgot) that your AIM template used GIEW as an example.
I'm honored! (Maybe not given the results you display)
On the other hand, that 13% annualized return ain't bad considering it averaged almost 32% Cash over the timeframe.
Hi Tom.
Thanks for posting the link back to your excellent Stock Review/Selection explanation on CGNX.
I've probably read that tens of times over the last 15 years, but hadn't for a while. It always gives me pause and not a little self-reflection on how I've stumbled on a number of stocks over the years by not doing my homework.
Are you still AIMing it? I think Toofuzzy is. Maybe one of the few single stocks he still manages with AIM.
Thanks again.
Hi again Allen.
Hi Tom.
Hi Allen.
I discovered AIM via Mr. Lichello's infomercial.
It was a middle of the night serendipitous moment for sure.
I was immediately fascinated by it.
Probbaly mid to late 80's or so. Don't recall exactly.
Some time later my father in law came to Texas for a visit and handed the cassette tapes and 3 ring binder to me, asking me "to find the fatal flaw in this system, because I can't."
I explained to him that I saw that informercial too, but didn't want to part with the $300 to buy it.
So I went to a bookstore and purchased the paperback.
Still intrigued, I hand entered stock prices in Lotus 123 to test it with real life stocks. Got the stock price history from the library!
Obviously did not find any fatal flaws, but did balk at the large trade sizes as programs grew over time. I was not an active investor back then so it seemed very risky to me.
Once I got connected to the web (mid 90's), I searched for AIM and found Tom and the rest of the gang on Silicon Investor (which has since migrated to iHub).
Both my father in law and I met up with Tom since he doesn't live very far from my hometown.
Been hanging out here ever since.
We've misplaced the tapes but I still have the binder (which I showed off at our first AIM gathering in Vegas, in May, 2000).
Geez! It's been 14 years since that get-together.
Performance looks good Tom!
Congrats!
One question however (just to show that I do pay attention).
What was with the 2 Vealies in Fall of 2012 and over the last few months this year?
My eyeballs tell me you're only at around 28-30% Cash.
Back to the market feeling 'Toppy'...
Happened to notice this article at Yahoo Finance this morning.
So FWIW:
Shorts destroyed: The risks of betting on a bubble bursting.
The jury's out on Janet Yellen as a Fed Chair but if she ran a hedge fund she'd already be out of business. Last week in her semi-annual policy report to Congress, Yellen strayed from macroeconomics into stock picking, suggesting that valuations in social media, real estate and biotech seem extended. If she was worried last week she's gotta be terrified today after a more than 4% run higher in Social Media (SOCL) and Biotech (IBB) ETFs over the last week.
On the upside Yellen probably handled her setback with more stoicism than hedge fund manager Bill Ackman. Ackman got choked up during his three hour, several hundred slide attack on Herbalife (HLF) this week. Ostensibly he was saddened by the way he claims Herbalife targets low-income entrepreneurs, but the fact that shares of Herbalife went up 25% when Ackman failed to "destroy" the company as promised probably didn't help.
Yesterday saw explosive ramps in some of the most widely shorted stocks in the market. Zillow (Z), Trulia (TRLA) ripped 15% and 30% respectively on rumors of a merger. SodaStream (SODA) jumped 10% on buzz that it might take itself private. All three of those stocks have more than 30% of the shares outstanding held short by funds and individuals. Zillow and Trulia are levered to both social media and real estate. SodaStream might as well be Sunbeam for a new millenium. Doesn't matter. If you were short those companies yesterday your fund is being fitted for a toe-tag today.
According to Hedge Fund Research, the average shorts biased fund has lost 10% a year for the last 4 years and was down another 5% at the end of June this year. I guarantee that's gotten much worse this month.
The problem with shorting a M&A frenzy is that it's all but impossible to control your risk. Months of work gets tossed out the window on a buyout rumor and stops won't help you. The truth of both the dot.com bubble and the financial meltdown is that plenty of people saw them coming and got crushed anyway.
If you hate this market the safest way to express that doubt is by taking two positions: cash and fetal. If you insist on shorting anyway I strongly recommend you first read the March 2000 letter from Tiger Management's Julian Robertson to his investors. In the note Robertson lays out the entire collapse of the internet bubble with frightening accuracy. He also announces the closing of Tiger after 20 years and an 85-fold gain. I'm not suggesting you get long stocks and ride the wave if you're not so inclined. I'm cautioning you not to confuse academic observations with an investment thesis. We've entered a dangerous period in the market for bulls and bears. Now seems like a good time to step back and do a little homework.
The link
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/shorts-destroyed--the-risks-of-betting-on-a-bubble-bursting-133723027.html
Taking the 'fetal' position as was mentioned is not a productive move. More like 'denial'.
So...
GIEW is at 40% cash as of today, and I'm thinking of liquidating or reducing some of my programs.
Right now I would realize a double+ on my remaining cost of SNDK, my largest program. It's off it's high by about 10% over the last 2 weeks.
I should also probably dump a few of my losers (deep divers). If the market does see a correction, they typically are the first fatalities.
Haven't decided quite yet but I probably should do something.
Hi Clive
Interesting you bring this up.
Oh I suppose so.
Forgot that he's all registered and everything now.
And the reason why Tom won't share the pick?
Must be angling for the 2014 Shot Myself in the Foot award.
And I'm still in possesion of it (somewhere).
Hi Ray.
Yes, we do.
It would be nice if all of us could get together someday for an AIM Gathering.
Last time was in 2001!