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Hello all.
My GTC Sell on PLTR triggered today.@ $31.20.
LIFO gain of 37%.
Sold 14 % of Actual shares; 9% of the program shares, Actual + Virtual.
The GIF is pretty dramatic!
One wonders if use of Tom's 'Halfway to the Wall' approach might have faired, everything else being equal.
Hi again Tom.
1 New Program MTW (Also Wisconsin based)
As it happens, I had my first AIM Buy on MTW after hours yesterday.
Added 60% to my actual shares, 11% to the program's shares.
@ $9.20, it was 23% below my initial purchase price of $12 exactly 4 months ago.
Note:
I don't do GTC Buy orders and Schwab's Price Alerts aren't working (apparently).
Because I thought I had one in there for $10.25, which was my first Buy target for the new program.
It worked out to my favor this time, but it kind of ticks me off!
Also:
Last week during the market meltdown, PLTR dropped to a low of $21.23.
My next Buy price was $23.00.
Never got the alert at $23.00, so missed the Buy.
Yesterday at around 2:00 PM, PLTR hit a high of $30.32.
Missed having a 40+% gain!
I have to get the alert thing worked out!
Hi Tom.
Well year to date, I've had
13 Sells,
3 Buys
1 New Program MTW (Also Wisconsin based)
1 Program Closed out CALM
So I guess it's been going OK.
Overall value YTD is down about 10%, but some of that is due to a few withdrawals I've made.
I'm also lower on cash as you mentioned.
I looked at Generac a few years back after the big freeze here in Texas, but it was pretty high at that point. Then it went even higher! $500+ per share!
Of course he was!
And that he lived a good long life after going through all of that is a testament of how important a positive attitude is to to a long life.
Wow!
You uncle truly was a patriot!
Hi Jon
Good advice Jon. Thanks
So we spent all of last week at S Padre Island with our son and his family.
Didn't crack the book, but I had it with me!
Tom:
Don't be surprised if you get a bit upset by the histories presented relative to the FED, monetary policy and other such subjects
Thanks for the heads up!
At our age, we need to watch out for potential blood pressure spikes! 😉
Hi Tom.
RE: Dreman's new book...
Book was delivered last night!
'I found I had to read a section and then digest it for a few hours before moving onto the next. So, it took a while to get through the entire book.'
My review will probably take awhile as well given that it's 480 pages long; inclusive of the substantial notes, references and index.
😲
Thanks Tom.
I added the book to my list at Amazon.
Looks very insightful as you said.
Thanks Tom.
I think Ameritrade's GTC orders were also 6 months by default unless you chose a date closer when entering.
Any thoughts on the research options? Scanning, Charting, etc?
Thanks Tom.
Good info as usual.
BTW: Not sure if you're still with TD Ameritrade, but the switch to Schwab happened today.
Seemed to go well. My GTC orders are still there which was a good thing.
After all these years, it will take a bit to get used to the new interface, but that's OK I guess.
I haven't looked at any of the other features yet (especially research) but I will as necessary.
Thanks Jon.
It was truly impressive. And I saw the one in 2017 as well.
I was just better prepared this time.
Best quote of the day was from my typically cynical, little, 65 years old brother...
.
..."This is Kick-Ass!" 😆
Thanks Tom. Makes sense (as usual). ☺️
Wow!
Quite a difference!
The #'s for Technology clearly show the impact of 'The Magnificent Seven'. Valuations in the Trillions vs Millions makes quite a difference!
BTW: I know you've mentioned it before, but what was you're reasoning for going with Equal vs Cap?
You're most welcome Tom.
I did this because I wanted to get the actual facts so as to compare with all of the BS out there.
I've responded to that BS quite a few times on various sites since last Fall when I first built it.
Not a lot of replies back to me!
@factsmatter. 😊
will they start to look at other reasons to either go up or down
Apparently not.
All 3 major indices closed at record highs, for the second day in a row.
I listened to much of Powell's commentary and Q&A session yesterday.
Seems to me that his slow and steady approach to reaching the 2% target by 2027 was welcome news save for the addicts of Zero Interest Rates.
If the inflation rate continues to creep up from or match the November low of 3.1 (Dec 3.4, Jan, 3.1, Feb, 3.2), he will hold and not cut in June.
Worst case is if any month hits 4, he may need to raise by 0.25%. That could wake up the market. And not in a good way.
Here's my compounded inflation table for the last 22 four year presidential terms. 2021-2024 ranks as 17th worst of the 22 terms.
And here I thought 'Big Bird' was yellow! 😁
Great pic Tom!
Where was the pic taken?
RE: Only 3000 more until we hit 50,000!
That is true Tom. But at the current rate, it will take over 3 years to get there!
Keep 'em coming Indeed! 🙄
Thanks Jon!
Between the AIM Group's combined 65k posts on Silicon Investor & here on IHub...
I'm, STILL # 1 with 12 Grubs (2 on SI and 10 on IHub)
Codypup at #2 with 9,
You and AIMster are tied for 3rd with 5 apiece.
What's really amazing is we've crossed 65,000 posts!
Of course it's taken 27 years! 😊
SH*T !!! 🤬
Didn't notice we were close, and just now got back from walking the dogs.
However, given the distance between each of your 'Pre-Grub' posts, I probably wouldn't have gotten it anyway.
So......Congrats!
(I'll get you next time). 😁
RE: struggling with getting my Excel running again.
What kind of struggles Tom?
RE: Inflation at 4
Half your Purchasing Power
Gone in 18 years
Compound inflation 2006-2024 = 53.0%
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/
Another more sobering example:
In 1976 I purchased my first new car; Chrysler Cordoba for $5,400
Cumulative rate of inflation since then: 442.0%
That same car today should cost: $29,269.80
Maybe I got a deal! 😉
All will be clear when your Secret Decoder arrives!
Tom: What is the transit time to the UK?
😊
Hi Will. I think Tom will concur.
Assuming the "Vealie" level is at 30%, cash at 29%.
The target price of £15.00 would take the cash to 33%, instead of a sale you'd Vealie? All based on the expected trade return?
You describe it well.
So I will pre-calc a 'Potential Vealie in the tracking worksheet.
Thanks a lot Tom!
1) When a stock or fund is fully funded with cash reserve per my thinking, I don't hold any GTC Limit Sell orders open on it. I wait until the price/share hits my target (or better) and then execute the 'vealie' and update my watchlist target prices on the buy and sell sides.
This makes sense to me. Of course I've never had 'Too Much Cash'! 🙄 But if I did, I'd likely use the same approach.
2) I've been using i-Hub's "Monitor" menu item in a separate window. There I've added a "Memo" column and in there I put the next buy and sell target prices. That's my watchlist. It keeps me up-to-date at a quick glance. I've had other software in the past for such monitoring, but those have all gone "Bye Bye" now, so this is how I handle them today.
I set 'Alerts' in TD Ameritrade for both my next Buy and Sell points. I get a text notification when they trigger
3) Yes, if I'm lucky enough to have the price/share race past my next Sell target while I'm napping ( 😎 ) I ask AIM how much the current price would want me to sell and then use that value divided by 2 to add to the Portf Control. Then all's well until the next price move or check-up.
This has happened to me from time to time.
Also, if market risk moves upward so that my current cash percentage isn't satisfactory, I'll execute a sale at the next target price to bring cash up toward the new market risk cash suggestion. Going the other way on risk, if risk drops and my cash looks too fat, I'll just have a chance to do more 'vealies' until either risk rises again, or cash gets diluted by stock position growth, or a buy cycle comes along and naturally lowers cash again.
Makes sense
I'll look through my Newport histories and see if I have a good 3 year period of trades and vealies as an example.
That would be great!
Thanks Tom!
So that approach assumes you don't have a GTC Sell order sitting out there?
But maybe just an alert if it gets to your next target price?
But if it does blow past that target price, you do the Classic Lichello calc to determine the amount to add to PC to execute the Vealie?
Not sure Tom.
'minimum trade amount'?
RE: Questions for the board on 'Vealie's.
Will and I have recently been discussing 'Vealies' and I have some related questions...
Who, besides Tom of course, have used Vealies to keep a lid on cash reserve?
And if you have, How often (is it a regular part of managing your AIM program?
And if you have, is the Sell Market Order / 2 PC adjustment driven by market price (Lichello Calc), or by your pre calc'd Next Sell order?
For reference: Tom's original definition and rationale regarding 'Vealis' is below...
© VEALIE - Another change from Mr. L's origional plan I use with my AIM accounts is to limit my selling. If after an extended period of upward movement, like the '91 to '93 period, I find myself with too much cash (say over 50% for stocks and 33% for mutual funds) I quit taking AIM's sell advise. I, instead, pull a VEALIE© and take the dollar value of the sell market order divided by 2 and add that amount to Portfolio Control. This eliminates the sell order and moves the next buy and sell prices upward at the same time. I will continue doing that with each new sell order until the cash reserve is diluted to about what the Idiot Wave is suggesting at the time for stocks and funds. Then I start to sell again just as AIM would like. If cash reserve gets too fat again, I just repeat the same proceedure. This change allows me to stay more fully invested, expand my risk envelope slightly and participate in long term rallys as they come along. Using the Vealie I attempt to keep the cash reserve within about 10% of what the Idiot Wave is suggesting (IW says 33% cash, I keep my cash between 30% and 33%)
Thanks!
RE: AIMing a security across different accounts.
Hi Adam. What you say makes sense to me.
I suggest a common cash reserve for both.
Then when you want to see how the overall combined program is doing over time, add up the total 'Stock Value', #
Shares', Portfolio Control, and Total Cash and go from there.
You're most welcome Tom G.
I'll ask my 80 YO Mother in Law if she has them.
But she may not know even if she does.
I'll probably need to look myself when we take our annual trip back home in Wisconsin in early July.
Forgot!
It had cassette tapes, but my father in law didn't give those to me.
I went out to the Internet Archive and searched Videos using Lichello, AIM, etc. but got no results.
You Tube does have Jeff Webber's vids along with Michael Hicks, but no Lichello stuff..
Somebody, somewhere must have a bootleg copy!
Forgot to include the picture
IIRC, the infomercial price was $300
128 hand typed single sided pages describing the AIM System plus 6 Appendices.
- Blank AIM Forms:
- Listing of No Load Mutual Funds
- Listing of Newsletters and Advisory Services
- NYSE Stock Symbols
- Suggested Reading (Books, Newspapers and Magazines)
It was available on You Tube?
Crap!
I remember actually seeing the infomercial on TV!
Way late at night.
Watched it a few times!
No DVRs back then!
My late father-in-law saw it too. Months later when he was in town for a visit.
He handed me a thick 3 ring binder and told me to 'find the fatal flaw'.
I never could.