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Did you get your .14's on the open?
NETE - Matt, ka, $H...care to share any of your DD on this one? I picked up 3k shares early this morning based off your alerts and a quick look at the chart. Other than that I was flying blind.
I've done some quick looking tonight, and it looks like they've paid their debt down a ton this past year. Giving a look at their past 10-K's, it looks like it will be mid-April before we see year-end results. I didn't see any PR's last February about Q4 results, but was kind of curious if they'd maybe release something here in the next couple of weeks as just a Q4 overview?
I also noticed mega-insider ownership on this one...to the tune of ~80%. But I could have swore in trying to do some quick DD at work that someone (maybe multiple insiders) sold a good chunk of shares. Anything that you guys happen to know about that? I need to start reviewing some of those SEC filings, but thought you guys may have the answer already.
Thanks in advance!
NETE - Jumped in on yours, ka's and matt's alerts. Chart looks good.
That eps would be great!
Yeah, that sounds great. Thank you very much for that information.
Below is what Naomi sent me on January 6th. In bold is Naomi's response regarding dilution.
The corporate structure is as follows (from the Q3 MD&A):
252,100,672 common shares
15,807,349 options
63,000,000 convertible preferred shares (owned by Blackrock, Banro’s largest stakeholder)
116,000 preferred shares – Series A
At this point, there is no discussion regarding an equity offering. At the current share price, an equity offering wouldn’t bring in the funds we would like to have to go forward this year. Forward gold sales make much more sense.
Here is an overview of debt and repayment terms for 2015:
BCDC loan – approx. $4.5 million – making monthly payments of $500,000, ending October 2015 (so, $1.5 million in Q1)
Rawbank loan – approx. $1 million – now paying $125,000/month (so, $375,000 in Q1)
Ecobank loan - $15 million – paying only interest right now. Beginning May 2015, will make 4 quarterly payments of $3.8 million into Q1 2016.
Gramercy liquidity backstop - $35 million + accruing interest. Making no payments now but will start making interest payments (at least) in August 2015 (roughly $500,000/month).
Bond interest payments - $8.7 million due February 28, 2015 and Aug 30, 2015
Thanks for that post. I opened the link and was trying to click on the $10M and $7.5M transactions to Banro, but maybe there isn't a further link? I was just hoping to find some dates that go along with those transactions, as that would help us continue to put the pieces of the Banro puzzle together.
I don't recall that, but may have missed the post. I'll need to look back at my email from Naomi, but she had provided the breakdown of the debts that were due quarter by quarter for 2015. I could see where smaller deals such as what you mentioned would be a great way to cover their short term needs.
BAA is not being diluted. I posted an email response from Naomi a couple of weeks back that stated that at the current pps, dilution wasn't a feasible option and was not even being considered by management. Unless something has drastically changed, which I'm confident it has not, then you are full of it.
Just going back since the new year, we are looking at roughly 35M shares traded. Even if you did the math, and said all of those 35M shares were diluted shares sold at the top price of ~$0.18, Banro would have only raised $6.3M. $6.3M isn't even in the same area code as the $121M they are looking to raise via a forward gold sale.
False claims should not be tolerated on this board. It would be much appreciated if you stopped using your "analysis" to mislead new investors and contributors to the BAA board.
I heard about that from one of my friends today. The scary part is that I'm pretty much tied up in meetings all day, so I won't get to watch much. Just going to have to cross my fingers and pray I guess.
Kicking myself for not getting back in UWTI yesterday on that sub-$3 dip. I was looking for $2.90, but it only hit $2.93. On a side note, back into UGAZ this morning at $2.59, so maybe this one will run for me.
Well, it would be great to have you back. They have had good news as far as a great Q4, and they could also announce their forward gold sale and/or that Namoya is up and running at design capacity any day. The bad news is that anyway you look at it, they have ~$300M in debt that has to be paid back in some way, shape or form.
I just thought maybe in your years of trading that you've maybe seen a stock with incredibly low volume like this, and that you might remember what ended up happening in the coming days.
As always, thanks for your opinion.
Yeah, I can think of a few other F words to go along with frustrating. I've just never seen this kind of low volume before. Earlier this morning (at open) I was concerned it was halted...but the last time they halted, it jumped from .18 and ran up to .30ish on good news. Just shocked that through half a day of trading that there hasn't been 100k of volume.
Hey Vlisp - Would like your opinion on B A A really quick. Today's volume is extremely low...does this mean a bottom is in? There has been about a .005 spread between the bid and ask all day. Also worth note is that the bid has slowly been climbing towards the ask. My gut tells me that this is a good sign, but I want an experts opinion.
I'm out of UGAZ and UWTI at this time. Am looking for re-entry. I agree on UWTI, think that one could drop if $50 breaks again. UGAZ might look for a low $2.50's entry.
These ETF's are treating me good, but not great...but only because of my early exits. This goes back to 2014 with TVIX, and selling a day early before the huge run up to $6 or $7...Then I played UGAZ, sold a day early and missed a run to $4...Now this week, I sold my UWTI, only to see it run up to $4+...The only thing more painful was that I bought my UWTI last week, and that kept me from buying CSIQ. CSIQ booming today on news, so I missed those profits...and sold my UWTI too early...
In UGAZ again now since yesterday...Up 15%, but hesitant to sell given my recent history of exiting too early.
Water drip torture is right with BAA. I'll keep you posted. A couple of other things worth mentioning are that there has been some insider activity (which I believe helped that push up to .18), and from what I've seen it institutional ownership is on the rise again.
Yeah, I got caught again trying to hold for a few extra pennies. Should've dumped all my .125's at .165-.175, but held. Oh well...financing news should send that back up to that range and possibly beyond.
BAA back down in the .13's...You said to notify you, so FYI.
UWTI - Keep me posted. I added today at $2.55 and brought my average to $2.68...Shortly after it made its little run to $2.71 or so, and now I'm right back down in the dumps. Had I been smart I would've just averaged down and set a sell order at my average.
I just keep believing that one of these days we have to get a bounce.
Last night I had a dream that there was news about Banro getting bought out. The pps jumped to $2.50 before it started pulling back, then started a new run to $3.50. Just as I was going to check what my account value was, I woke up.
I don't think that would cause them to stall on the Twangiza deal. I still believe (speculation of course) that Gold Holding tried to sweeten the deal for a second time and Banro pushed back.
My trailing stop triggered on UWTI...Out for now...Will watch for re-entry. Was a little disappointed to see crude break $50 and UWTI have a PM high over $4, but yet we opened $3.50's. Crazy.
UWTI - Do you have a target in mind? I threw in a .20 trailing stop to take profit off of my $2.90's...but maybe that's not a good plan.
That was a really nice spike up. Starting to pull back some now, but we'll see if she starts running again here shortly.
UWTI is looking good. Hopefully it is ready to run!
$UWTI with a nice move up here in the last few minutes.
Yeah, I've been on a bit of a bad streak. Some missed opportunities, but also some selling too early.
I picked up a starter in UWTI this morning in low $2.90's. Kicking myself though for selling UGAZ yesterday...Ughhh!!!
Hopefully UWTI will make the same move.
UWTI - I picked up a starter this morning in the low 2.90's. I also hope to see $3.30's. A bounce in oil will send this one...it's just trying to time that bounce.
Yeah, I've just been on a bad streak. Probably started with Matt's alert on IMRS. Got greedy at .30, and tried an order for a gap fill to .27, missed what would've easily been 100% to 200% for me.
MNGA - The news that I've waited months and months for, comes a week after I dump out.
And now UGAZ, which I sold yesterday started blowing up toward the end of the day and is going crazy today. So missed another 33% or so there.
Just a bad stretch here that I'm mis-timing everything.
$MNGA - Wow. I sure wish they would've started pumping out this kind of news a week ago. Like rubbing salt in an open wound.
Damn...I was just looking at this one at the end of last week, and saw how oversold it was. Was thinking about jumping in, as that was my big winner from 2014.
$BAA - AF, there is your .171 break.
$BAA - 8x34 cross on the daily taking place now.
LOL...If that were really $19, I'd probably die from a heart attack and never get to enjoy my BAA riches.
Welcome to the board.
As for the $19.00, I believe that is a typo.
I believe someone else responded regarding the institutional holdings, and their response is spot on. Most institutions were in well before this dropped below $1/share.
The story about the finance deal is a forward gold sale with Gold Holding. They first announced this a few months back, and the forward gold sale would provide Banro with upfront cash to be paid back over time by gold mined from Twangiza and Namoya. The deals for each of those mines was slated to be $41M and $80M, respectively. You can dig back through their PR's, but as you can see from their latest PR, the deal is still in the works, and seems to be held up from the Gold Holding end.
I've been in for about 1 year now, and the book value has always been around $2 per share. The problem that I've seen and have heard other longs talk about is that Banro has had a history of debt issues, and that they often fell short on delivering on their promises. I truly believe now, after the last 2 Q's, the tides are turning.
Best of luck to you.
Braised - I agree completely. The news is out there. The only thing I wouldn't agree upon is if on Monday morning they come out and post a PR saying the Gold Holding deal has been signed, sealed and delivered...and was done at the end of last week. I don't think that's the case though, and that it's still in the works.
Hey Vlisp - $BAA
You might be interested to check out this post I made to AF on the Orions board. I know you've been in BAA before, but there are a lot of things that happened this past week that make me believe something good is going to happen soon.
There was some insider buying on Thursday and Friday (the link is in the post below). There was an uptick in volume, with higher lows each day. BAA also closed above the 50 dma on Thursday and Friday, and there is an 8x34 cross in the making.
I know you have a love for metals, so just incase BAA was no longer on your radar, I thought I'd let you know that it is worth a look again.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=109811179
$BAA - I saw the link below posted on the BAA board. I'm excited to see this. Yes, it's only 500k shares total, but still, it's a start. In the ~ 1 year I've been invested in BAA I've often seen posts complaining about the lack of insider ownership. Well, here we go.
https://canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=BAA+%7C+Banro
As for pending news, they have been in the works with Gold Holding for a forward gold sale. The first transaction for $41M in forward gold sales is for the Twangiza mine. After the Twangiza transaction there is supposed to be a second transaction for $80M in forward gold sales for the Namoya mine. Unless you are an insider, no one can really be sure why the deal hasn't been done. Banro's last PR seems to throw Gold Holding under the bus, and the way I read it, seems to say that Gold Holding is the reason the transaction(s) hasn't closed. We already know that Gold Holding sweetened the original deal once, perhaps they tried sweetening it again and Banro said no.
One last thing I'd like to point out is the uptick in volume this past week. I know it's not the 8M shares at .171 during one trading day that you've been wanting to see, but each day this past week we traded near or over 2x the average (90 day) daily volume. If you look at the weekly, you have to go back to Sept 22 to see a week that had this kind of volume.
All I know is I'm excited for Monday morning. A week of trading has gone by with higher gold prices, increased volume, insider buying, higher lows set each of the 5 trading days, a green candle at the close Tues thru Fri, and closes on Thurs and Fri above the 50dma. There is also an 8x34 cross on the daily about to occur.