is ... YES - Another Profitable Day!
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SAVW is not the only company that will benefit from that. Exactly how much business they will get and when is still and unknown A market rally simply cannot continue based entirely on a need. Given their current EPS, the stock is overvalued at its current price and until that EPS changes, the market will be subject to wide market swings. This rally was founded largely on the need for a product of the type that SAVW produces and on three news articles (according to the way most of you appear to believe). Those news articles largely state that one installation of a product was completed, a grand opening was announced, and the stock was mentioned as being among the actively traded stocks in their category. NONE of that information contributes significantly to the bottom line of the company. Therefore, in my opinion, that is not sufficient information upon which to sustain a rally that will break a major long term trend. However, this rally is significant in that it was mounted on significant volume so, there is some evidence no that the trend could be coming to an end. But, I seriously doubt that we are going to see a trend break in the coming week. Yeah, yeah, I know but, WHAT IF a news articles come out? Well what if a news article does come out? What if that news article is about a power failure that will shut down operations for more than a week? I live in the real world and do not pin my hopes on what a news article may say or not say or if there will be one at all. I look at the chart from a purely technical point of view and from my point and in my opinion we will not see this rally continue on Monday. You can continue to argue with me all you want and you can tell me how wrong I am and how great the future is for this company and I will still say to you that is not going to make a huge difference today unless there is a drastic change in the EPS. So, I suggest you wait until Friday of next week and take another look at what's happening with this market.
What you are saying here makes sense. I'm taking all that into consideration. But, there are certain other factors which I believe are missing and I'm waiting for those to show up.
Good advice! I am a swing trader but, you have to be very careful when you pick the bottom and the top and I've learned a few tricks that work well for me so, I don't just jump into anything unless it's a no lose situation and I do have a few of those. This one is just too iffy in it's current market state.
As ye believe, so shall it be done unto you. If you choose to believe that any market moves on the printed word, that's just a carry over from Charlotte's Web when you were very little. You should try to get over that, you know?
Now that philosophy makes very good sense!
PLEASE Do Not Misquote me! I NEVER Said that the Trend NEVER Changes!
Kevin, SAVW has been trending up for 8-days. In those 8-days of trending up, it has FAILED to break the longer, stronger trend that have been DOWN now since December of 2010. Before that, you can go all the way back to 2008 on the monthly chart and see that the over all trend for this stock has been DOWN since 2008. So, you are saying my analysis is wrong because for the last 8-days and failing to break the prevailing trend, it's been going up???? Are you reading what you are typing here?
That's right! But, the difference is a stock can only stay oversold for long periods of time in a BEAR market. We're in a BEAR market. A market can only remain overbought for long periods of time when it's in a BULL Market (that's a strong ESTABLISHED uptrend). We are NOT in that kind of market at the present time.
So, to enlighten me, you offer ALL Hype and NO substance?
You're the one who brought it up. What do you mean? Look. Two things can happen on Monday. The price closed right at the top of the bear channel. So, either it closes above or below the channel on Monday. Are you telling me that after 8 days of the market struggling and closing higher every day, now that it's managed to finally reach the one major resistance point for it over the last year (that being the downtrend line) that it will somehow miraculously leap above it now because that resistance is now going to disappear? If that were true, it would have closed above the trend on Friday. No, I believe it is more likely that there will be, at the very least, the start a normal Fibonacci correction on Monday. The market is not in a strong uptrend here. An 8-day rally in a bear market does not an uptrend make. First we'll see some kind of a market bottom formation and then we'll see the beginning of a rally that will have the momentum to break the trend line. All we have today are rumors and clues and volume and the volume is as much short covering as it is new longs. Don't forget that for every hare of stock that is bought, someone had to sell that share. So while you were buying because you believe the market will go higher, someone else was selling because they believe it will most likely go lower. When I look at the price movement and the market indices associated with this stock, it appears to me that the sellers are overall still the more aggressive of the two so, while the market does appear to be getting ready to change it's trend, that trend is still down.
So, if I understand you correctly, you have been buying into this market now because some day they may announce a big contract and you believe that will cause the price to go up? Is that what you are telling me here? That newspaper announcements are the reason why a stock goes up in value? Perhaps you are the one lacking in understanding here. Ok, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. Maybe I can learn something in the process. Where is your evidence that any financial analysts have ever written or taught that news announcements are the cause and substance of the value in a stock price? I'm all ears.
You easily see red on Monday.
So, enlighten me. What do you see on the chart that I'm missing and why is that a reason to jump in now?
What you say is true but only in a strong uptrend. Look at the Stochastics going back to November of 2010. They were NEVER Overbought. But there are long periods of Oversold readings. So, what does that tell you? Uptrend? Or Downtrend? Do you see a market bottom formation anywhere? There are clues that the market is turning around here. But, not yet.
Markets turn slowly. Only in the minds of men do they turn quickly. There is evidence on the charts of a market turn but, it has not happened yet. The last two rallies met resistance at the top of the bear channel. This one did not break out yesterday either. I doubt if it will on Monday. Patience! There is not sense in rushing into a rally only to see it fall a part the day after you buy. Some times I think you folks argue with me just to justify your own reasons for rushing in. They don't matter. You did it, it's a done deal. When I'm ready, when the market tells me it's time, I'll get in. But, I'm not a crowd follower.
And ... if there is no announcement ... the stock is sitting at the top of a bear channel and it's very overbought at the moment so, it's more likely to go down then up over the short-term. Even if there is an announcement, the price could still go down on Monday because the anticipation of a possible announcement has driven the price up a lot this week. It's due for a correction.
Read my entire post. Don't jump to conclusions in the first few words. I said not to worry unless it was still there at the end of the day. 60-minute charts don't always stay the way they appear for very long. But, I like to watch them because it helps me make decisions faster. I'm not even in this market yet. Except for some rather interesting volume, the market still appears to be in a downtrend so, I'm not that excited about it yet.
It's not there anymore. It was a possibility on the 60-minute chart but, it didn't last long. I just mentioned it to Wolverine to emphasize a point that if it remained a double top that would confirm my suspicions but, it did not.
The understand the current market trend, you really need to look at the Weekly Chart. Since this is the first I've looked at the SAVW Weekly Chart, I did see some pretty interesting things here.
You can see however that the trend is DOWN. You can also see some pretty good evidence of a market bottom. But, I don't see that as clearly on the Daily Chart. All in all, I still think there are likely going to be better places to buy into this market.
SAVW - Weekly Candlesticks
May not be Double Top after all because the Stochastics do not confirm it as one. So, not to worry as I said. The last sell signal I identified apparently satisfied itself when the market fell back and filled the gap. Since then it's been hard to read. It's hard to trade on the 60-minute chart anyway and that's what I've been talking about here.
On the daily chart nothing has changed and I still see no market bottom so, I still expect the price to come back down. Currently on the daily chart the market is becoming rapidly overbought so, it won't be long before we see a correction in the price. We are still in the confines of a bear channel. Without a market bottom in place, the trend will usually prevail.
See no reason to get excited here. Most of the volume yesterday was won by aggressive selling and today's price action so far confirms that. I would have to say that this looks more like just a bounce in a bear market. As of right now, there is no sign of a market bottom on the chart. The chart does appear to show a shift in momentum but that is neither significant nor does it really change anything. Therefore, in my opinion, the trend will prevail.
I see a Double Top on the 60-Minute Chart this morning for SAVW. Not to worry yet and it only the 60-minute chart not the daily but, if it's still a Double Top at the end of the day, that just confirms my suspicions that we're still in a bear market and the support at the bottom of the trend will be tested. Maybe that will give us the market bottom I've been looking for.
Amazing support shown for EMKR. The market forms a rising wedge (60-minute chart) which is always an indication that the price has gone up too far, too fast and the price falls out of the wedge (which is what it will always do) and then a normal Fibonacci retracement takes place and buy orders are already waiting there to gobble it back up again. I'm inclined to say that for the time being, you can just hold on for the ride and not bother with the intraday swings here.
When you have as many outstanding shares as this company has, you are not going to manipulate the price very easily. Manipulation is what News watchers call it when the market does not move according to their interpretation of the news. But, the reality is, the market always moves in accordance with the buying and selling that takes place according to how the majority of investors interpret the news as it relates to the sound fundamentals of the company. But, manipulation? No such thing!
Right now the Status is Quo Pete. But, if OTOW closes below the Trading Range, then it can drop all the way to $0.003 or below.
OTOW Is still in it’s trading range so officially nothing has changed. However, if OTOW should break out of the trading range to the Downside, that would change everything. Based upon the Weekly chart (the BIG picture) for OTOW I'm seeing a very bearish Descending Triangle and also seeing confirmation on the daily chart as well, I now believe that OTOW will break DOWN out of its trading range and also eventually FAIL support at the 200 day SMA. Using Triangle Price Prediction Methodology, I believe the price could drop below $0.003 where it should find support and develop a base of accumulation. That is MY OPINION. You might consider taking profits if you have them and/or consider protecting yourself from further loss if the market does break down out of its trading range.
Here is another look at the Daily and the Weekly charts ...
OTOW - Daily Candlesticks
OTOW - Weekly Candlesticks
So, now we have a Double Top and a break in the UP TREND. In any case, looks like my analysis yesterday was correct. The market is going lower for whatever reason.
On the daily chart I can see that things are beginning to change but, for the most part, the trend is still down, the price is still in the bear channel, and there is no market bottom in place. So, I have not changed my opinion. This stock will probably go back down and perhaps then we'll see some kind of market bottom formation.
My chart comments: SAVW - Daily Candlesticks
On the 60-minute chart, it looks like the price has settled into a trading range - SAVW - 60 min Candlesticks
Well pray tell, what are the earnings for this company? Don't keep it a secret? What's your source?
I just call them as I see them. I never make predictions or forecasts based upon what some court may or man not decide. In most cases, the market knows where it's going and it always leaves clues.
OMG! What if BAD news comes out and the market opens at $0.00001???
Well, I hear you but the direction of the market is almost always reflected in the stocks because the people who know what's going on take the appropriate position well in advance of the news. You know, the earnings could be great, but, if the market considers that the PE is too high it can fall in price because of that. I don't presume to know why it's going down, I can only tell you that it is.
You got a crystal ball? You bribe the judge? The chart says sell, so what can I tell you?
Actually I like this stock so, I'm going to continue to try and find a place to buy it. Thanks for the comment - much appreciated!
Well, the charts are telling me to sell. So, I can only conclude that someone (or a lot of someones) already knows what those financials are likely to show and has concluded that the market is overbought in relation to what those financials will show. And, that is usually the case.
Tell you what, I'm gonna start putting the moon on my charts so you can see what I'm talking about!
Well, if that's true then my analysis is correct. SELL! That what the chart shows!
All that stuff sound good but, my charts usually do not lie to me so, I need to be on the sidelies for now.