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Boilermaker, in this case Niocorps engineers, the independent engineering companies who did the feasibility study and the third party ' bank' engineers were involved in the final version. This process started early october 2017 after the provisional report included mistakes and misrepresentations! These are my words as I understood them from public statements made by Mark Smith. It is now 5 month later. I am pretty sure that this report should be ready, also because to pay and engage these people would be expensive! Again the report is meant for the debt financing option, which is just one - important- financing option! A strategie alliance or partnership would not require such a report!
Agree! I have stated the same several times! You have several financing options of which debt financing is an important one! Another theoretical option is a strategic alliance with a party interested in niobium and scandium or super alloys! We will only know when see an announcement! Meanwile the company moves forward on all controlable aspects of the project not to loose any time!
Thx Steve! Good intro to conference! There is no escape for the industry: data and communication industry purchasing criteria will be completely met by LWLG's polymer photonics chips. The agenda narrows the options for photonic chips! Polymers are compatible with silicon and as 'stand alone'chips!
Agree. I would question managements credibility if they would reveal their negotiation tactics and preferences before sealing a deal. We need some more patience.
The condensed report was ready in January! Company did not make a public announcement!
They are still producing 5000 tons annually! Imo they never invested 2 billion! They were sold to Magris in 2015 for 530 million dollars with 8 years mine life left! Now the decision to make by the current owners is, do we invest in this 'old mine' or do we buy a new mine for less money!
Understand they started production in 1976. That is 42 years ago. Their shaft goes beyond 800 meters deep! I came away with impression that their mine life was limited to another 5 years and required major investments to go even deeper! So they would have to decide to invest in an risky and complex old mine or in a new one!
Nebraskan, Niobec's vision is to be a global leader for niobium! Are your messages about Niobec implying that they maybe interested in the Elk Creek Project? That would mean private equity financing and a strategic alliance across borders! With Trump's tariffs in the making ( also for Canada's steel) that could make sense for a lot of diffferent reasons! Interesting thought!
Welcome back as moderator! Steve, with hiring going on I believe we will be able to execute all plans! LWLG is still ahead of its time table! I expect news before Brussel! Hope I am right!
You must be valuating your home every day to see if the price is up ! Buying shares in Niocorp is an investment like buying a house ( from Warren Buffett)!
Superbly written PR! Fantastic news!
Walter, with Jim Sims Niocorp has an first class investor
-and government relations person! His contacts in Washington are of decisive significance! Happy to have him on the team!
Agree. Excellent point. That makes Niocorp's super alloys immune for any future dumping practices as in the case of rare earths.
Thanks for clarifying! I am sure that a major share participation / purchase will come at a negotiated SP and will be higher than current SP.
Thanks. I agree, this could be next move for Niocorp.
Thanks TODD!!
Agree.
Of course that is just one option. The loan from a banking syndicate is still an open option as well and with EBITDA improving and time to production shortened as well as renewed technical endorsement from Nordmin and several loan guarantees in place , dilution may even be lower in this case. Making NIOCORP even more attractive to its current shareholders. It seems Mark has alternatives. As he said: we need to find the best one for our shareholders.
Just to put dilution in perspective. I made a rough picture of the current funding perspective. Based on the latest information I think the capital required for this project could go to about $ 825 million ( mainly due to the savings for water and contingency, originally at 100 million and 109 million respectively) instead of the $1 billion in the original BFS. If Nordmin/Canada would take care of the mine and shaft financing we would have secured a total of 310 million in funding ( including 130 million German loan guarantee). The processing facilities require $ 380 million capital. I understand the selection of the EPC company for the processing facilities also depend on its capability to provide financing. If indeed successful, this would add up to a total funding of close to $ 690 million. No dilution as yet. Niocorp would need to find another 135 million in debt and equity financing. If no financing of the processing facilities comes along, this requirement would add up to a funding requirement of 525 million.
At current SP and assuming a 40/60 equity/ debt ratio, that would require a minimum of 55 million of equity or 110 million shares or a maximum of $ 210 million or 420 million shares and/or 80 million or 315 million in debt financing. Mark indicated that there was a possibility that he could find somebody prepared to finance the whole project. I assume he meant both taking an equity and a debt position. Following this line of thought this party could end up having a 33% equity share in the first option and a 67% position in the second option. Given the possible impact on existing shareholders I hope that Mark takes his time to come up with the best option for himself and the existing shareholders. My assumption is that majority ownership or 51% is Mark's minimal objective and I estimate we will end up with around 400 million shares . Given the NPV of this project ( 3 Billion?) and the EBITDA of > 500 million per year that will give us an NPV per share of $7 and a minimum market value of $ 12- 15 per share.
JWR, agree. If we advance project with 12-14 month, no dewatering expenses, less capex, lower contingency our EBITDA will be up to 500 - 600 million plus 10% lower corporate tax rate will move NPV direction 3B. Reputable EPC companies, off takes for 75% niobium! German and Canadian export and debt financing, reduced time to production and improved project financials will make ultimate financing less risky and easier!
All reads is total universe in this case and daily trading just 20% of outstanding shares! I have no idea if such a statistic is meaningful. I agree that limited supply of shares/ volumes may cause bumps in SP either way.
Just keep in mind that there are imo about five big pools of shares: Lind, Mark Smith, Elysée,The Northern Europeans and Nebraska's, all long and not selling and imo good for 80% of outstanding shares. Your predictor would be based on the renaining 20%.
Agree, Walter! Moreover such a public commitment will only be signed off by the EC (executive committee) of a company after verification it can be done! I would not like to be the Head of Engineering to tell my CEO " I screwed up"! This means total commitment to get it done.
Agree! Sometimes I wonder if pointing at Lind as the main culprit is a smoke screen for hiding own malpractices!
Max, marketmakers need to create liquidity ! They buy shares ( as cheap as possible) at multiples of 500 shares to avoid to unsettle the marketprice too much.
Let the SP go up slowly. Amongst ourselves we own 200 million shares. If nobody wants them , we are to divide most profit amongst ourselves , a minimum of up to 2 dollars dividend per share. If dewatering is no longer needed EBITDA goes up ( + 65 million in dewatering expenses and a a large part of the contingency provision) and this one year earlier than anticipated . This is a huge game changer for \Niocorp and a windfall for patient investors.
Fantastic news! Earlier production, better EBITDA due to lower opex, less capex, credit financing , possible debt financing! Off takes...more good news to come! Specialist engineering technical endorsememt, Canadian and German government support, US strategic minerals confirmation, off takes! This thing Will attract smart money!
Your post makes business sense!
Todd, fully agree.
Great article.Interview is very specific on timing, financing aspects and construction. I think that Mark's interview implies that things are moving in the right direction! We may see news in the next weeks!
Great article.Interview is very specific on timing, financing aspects and construction. I think that Mark's interview implies that things are moving in the right direction! We may see news in the next weeks!
Thx Steve for the article! Nice to see media exposure. Møre to come soon!
Since Mark spoke about huge interest and multiple options in his latest video, I like to think he leads us to 'the best option' as he stated. Let me elaborate what I think this best option would be.
As stated in the BFS this project will create huge long term value for its owners. Moreover the critical elements Niocorp ( scandium, niobium, titanium and other critical REE) will mine are of strategic importance to major global industries and geopolitical consideration and therefore , to put it simple, a contest between public financing/interests ( US, Germany, China) and private financing/ interests I would not be surprised if Chinese companies ( read Chinese government) have already been offering to finance Elk Creek. I remember somebody referring to that a while ago ( they finance strategic raw materials in every corner of the world). The Germans have already offered eligibility to their loan guarantees. The US Senate is about to formalize its critical elements. My bet is that (US) private equity ( with US govt. support) will be faster in capturing the strategic and financial value of this mine. Therefore the best option in my humble opinion would be a strategic partnership or better even a financial partnership with a private equity firm without need for other banks or loan guarantees ( no doubt an important additional security). This would see the value of Niocorp rise over time to production and beyond. A major and controlled equity participation by such a partner and at the same time the willingness to provide most of the funds for capital investment could see the value of all of our shares increase in various steps and keep dilution at a minimum.
Has Nio moved into ' the driving seat' ? Listening to Mark carefully, I understand Nio negotiation position has improved significantly! Huge interest and different options! Problem is not financing, but best choice for company! Imo best choice= (financial or strategic) partnership at minimal dilution! For me Mark's remarks imply that we will see the best choice for Nio and its shareholders! Not if, but when! Seems question of going through the normal process of due diligence by both parties! How long will that take?
Many names here on Ihub have become familiar to me over the years. Some people I have been able to meet 'in the flesh', some I hope to meet in future. To all of you I extend my best wishes for Xmas and for 2018. I hope that we can carry the positive mood of the last week into 2018. Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
Himmelhoch jauchzend und zum Tode
betrübt! Like the huge mood swing in a matter of two days.
Mars,Jupiter and Saturnus will make 2018 a powerful and explosive year.
Freedom's model, astrology and religion all come to THE same prediction now.LMAO. Like Trump's executive order.That helps. Long and strong.
During 2017 LWLG has continuously been able to move faster and to exceed expectations in terms of final device capabilitities. LWLG has been able to leapfrog their own initial product development plans and in the process to outperform potential competitors. I expect that they can continue to exceed our expectations. Fasten your seatbelts seems appropriate in this context. Yesterday's update is truly more promising than I throught.
Reading the update again it looks there is important news. Most of us may have miss it, like I did. Whereas sofar they talked of packaging the 25Gpbs, they are now implying the packaging and 50Gpbs prototypes ( 8x50= 400) will be ready. That would be huge progress.