Niocorp Developments Ltd (NB)

[jeunke22]

Just to put dilution in perspective. I made a rough picture of the current funding perspective. Based on the latest information I think the capital required for this project could go to about $ 825 million ( mainly due to the savings for water and contingency, originally at 100 million and 109 million respectively) instead of the $1 billion in the original BFS. If Nordmin/Canada would take care of the mine and shaft financing we would have secured a total of 310 million in funding ( including 130 million German loan guarantee). The processing facilities require $ 380 million capital. I understand the selection of the EPC company for the processing facilities also depend on its capability to provide financing. If indeed successful, this would add up to a total funding of close to $ 690 million. No dilution as yet. Niocorp would need to find another 135 million in debt and equity financing. If no financing of the processing facilities comes along, this requirement would add up to a funding requirement of 525 million.
At current SP and assuming a 40/60 equity/ debt ratio, that would require a minimum of 55 million of equity or 110 million shares or a maximum of $ 210 million or 420 million shares and/or 80 million or 315 million in debt financing. Mark indicated that there was a possibility that he could find somebody prepared to finance the whole project. I assume he meant both taking an equity and a debt position. Following this line of thought this party could end up having a 33% equity share in the first option and a 67% position in the second option. Given the possible impact on existing shareholders I hope that Mark takes his time to come up with the best option for himself and the existing shareholders. My assumption is that majority ownership or 51% is Mark's minimal objective and I estimate we will end up with around 400 million shares . Given the NPV of this project ( 3 Billion?) and the EBITDA of > 500 million per year that will give us an NPV per share of $7 and a minimum market value of $ 12- 15 per share.