Am I A Junkie Or An Investor?
Good Morning
The skymark email with their numbers and expectations are at the bottom of this post as a reminder.
This is more of a self talk session in hopes to help anyone who may be thinking the wrong thoughts and asking themselves the wrong questions daily. We cannot desire to be Wise Investors who want to learn and grow and accumulate wealth , but keep thinking like a Trading Junkie at the same time.
How am I thinking this morning and every morning? Like a Trading Junkie or like an Investor?
Remember, the answer is always in the question. So the quality of the answer we get in our mind is dependent on the quality of the question we ask our mind. Conclusion : Lets start asking our minds the right questions.
If I was a Junkie, what would I think of my Trade or Investment in TSHO?
Here is what the mind of a Trading Junkie might say to self. Why is this stock not moving? Why is there no volume? This is so boring. I cant stand this. I am miserable . I am afraid I may lose money. I am missing so many other chances to make money ( In other words all the junkie penny trade ideas that come to our attention daily ). Will this stock ever move up? I hope it moves fast. Why did I ever put money in this stock, it is doing absolutely nothing. I think you get the idea. So I would urge you to arrest your thoughts and take them captive, and start asking your mind the right questions.
If you and I desire to be wise and grow and learn and exercise the virtues that are proven to help accomplish our objectives of wealth accumulation, then lets ask ourselves the right questions.
What do I know about the fundamentals of TSHO so far? How long have I had TSHO? What were my expectations when I put dollars o work in TSHO? What is an acceptable rate of return to me ? What are the facts I know about TSHO ( outstanding shares, management, PR's that have been distributed so far , how the stock price has acted so far, what the chart looks like, what the expected range of numbers are for the infomercial etc )
What would happen if the management rolled out the first already produced infomercial as they said. Would the stock go up? Is it possible that this stock has yet to be discovered? Is it possible when the actual numbers on revs come out, that there will be a noticeable increase in demand for shares? Could this stock go crazy on the upside because of an emotional rush on the buy side? What is my downside risk and can I live with the irrational sellers who may be selling because of any number of reasons including ignorance, impatience, and fear?
I really could give you 25 other questions in each category of the Junkie and the investor. But the point I want to make is we all can start thinking better and arrest our unwise and irrational thought process and then start asking ourselves more powerful questions and looking at the facts and therefore making wise , informed and convicting confident decisions rather than floating in Oblivion and feeling fearful and powerless daily and lost in the world of hopelessness and despair that is always saying , " I should have, could have , would have "....
Bottom line , I look at the analysis of Skymark research and the range of numbers expected and I have to ask myself ...Is this acceptable to me? Is this possible to my mind? Is this believable to me? For me , the answer is yes, and so I took a huge position ( for me its a relatively big position in proportion to my overall portfolio ) . What that answer is for you , ONLY you can decide.
But decide this day for yourself.....
Am I a Trading Junkie or Am I a Wise Investor?
Here are the numbers by skymark research as a reminder.
" It is time for our latest analyst recommendation, TSHO, the Tradeshow Marketing Company Ltd.
After an amazing run with our last recommendation; JAZZ from the initial entry of $0.74 to friday's close of $7.03, showing subscribers 900% gains (ref: Past Performance):
This morning we are ready to start positioning ourselves in our analysts next recommendation,TSHO.
Tradeshow Marketing Company (TSHO) announced the completion of the shooting of its first infomercial. Below is a full analysis if TSHO produces a hit on the commercials, taking into account revenue streams:
If 1 of 4 commercials hit as a successful infomercial launch:
Based on the low-end of $20 Million in Revenue:
Approximately 25% of all revenues generated through sales of the infomercial will result in bottom line profit, after all expenses, as the "net income" on the income statement.
$20M x 0.25 = $5M. <--Projected Net Income
In order to calculate projected market cap: use a P/E ratio, multiplying net-income by the P/E multiple. Price over Earnings (P/E) Ratios of 10 were used for all estimates, as to remain conservative.
$5M x 10 = $50M <-- Projected Market Cap
Finally, in order to obtain target stock price: divide 'Projected Market Cap' by 'Current Outstanding Shares'. Outstanding shares have been confirmed at 23.1 Million shares. This value has been used for all estimates.
$50M
______ = $2.16 <-- Low-End Projected Target Price, (1 Commercial)
23.1M
Using the high-end of $70 Million in Revenue, this target price upgrades to $7.57.
With this first infomercial well in sight, and managed by one of the most successful infomercial companies- Cesari Direct, TSHO is an unbelievable opportunity under $0.80.
Below we outline the projections if TSHO hits on multiple products."
The preceeding post is my opinion and self talk session and based on my beliefs as I go through my own transformation process. My hope is it helps you.