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I was hoping that you'd give up on you .265 gap fill. LOL. Good choice my friend. Still have all of my shares, still waiting for this one to find its book value or better.
That was a nice buy a few minutes ago!
Disappointing volume today. Hopefully we'll start seeing some big buys come in.
I think we have consolidated nicely as well. Unfortunately, with the retrace to the low .30's and the current POG, I'm a bit concerned that even with solid Q2 mining results that we will struggle to get any higher than .385. Even that might be a stretch if the POG flatlines here, or goes down further.
I really expected the Q2 mining results this past Monday morning, so hopefully they come tomorrow morning. The Q4 and Q1 results were both released on Monday in the first full week of January and April, respectively. I'm unsure if the holiday or world events (Greece) could have contributed to the company choosing to hold off with a Monday release, but I am hopeful that gold has an up-day when the results are released so we can get a healthy jump and at least back up to .35+.
I posted a few weeks ago that about 1 year ago now we sat comfortably in the high .40's to low .50's with Namoya (supposedly) coming online, but with the POG ~$1350. That $200/oz difference is weighing in heavily, so I really don't see a PPS of .50+ until we get one of the following:
1) $1350 gold (probably not likely anytime soon)
2) An announcement that Namoya is online, and in commercial production
3) A "knock it out of the park" Q2 ER (I don't even think a .03-.04 EPS would do this...double that, and it might be enough to move it to .50)
4) Some other piece of significant news from the company (i.e. JV, plans for a 3rd mine, buyout, etc)
5) I wasn't going to add a #5, but I also think a combination of #1 and/or #3 and/or solid Q2 Mining Results could also get us to .50. All I mean by this is it might not take gold at $1350, but maybe $1200-$1250, with 48k+ oz produced in Q2, along with another ER for Q2 announcing .03 EPS.
I think the original PR stated that additional ounces would be delivered if POG dropped below $1100 so that a POG of $1100/oz would be realized. So I don't think it's a solid, set in stone number. It just depends on what that actual price is, and then I assume they make adjustments based off of that month's production.
Here is one thing that just crossed my mind though. I believe the gold is deliverable monthly. With that, for the Namoya transaction, it is 10% of the life of the mine. Does Banro really deliver monthly then? The reason I ask is wouldn't Gramercy be gaining insider information based off what was delivered? I mean, here we wait this week for the Q2 mining results, and if Namoya was in production now and 10% of the gold had been given in April, May and possibly now June, Gramercy would have a pretty good idea how production was going.
BAA is holding beautifully! Volume up today, and although I'd like to see the BAA pps up, I'll take it holding .30's given the surrounding markets, events and POG.
Call me crazy, but it has seemed to me as of late that BAA does better when gold is down. I'd much rather see gold at 1300 or 1400 to help with the bottom line, but 1100 might bring more eyes to BAA with their low all in costs.
No doubt...and as another poster pointed out, if you follow his posts they indicate that he is always right. That doesn't happen. Go BAA!
From what I remember from last years SH's meeting, it was pretty uneventful. I'm not sure what they can (or will) provide on Namoya, but I think that's the missing piece right now. Confirmation that things are going as planned, or are ahead of schedule, I think the price moves northward. Probably not higher than .34 or .35 though, unless they release significant news.
I did like today's action though, and believe we can get back over .33 tomorrow. I don't know if it's just me or not, but it has seemed as of late that BAA becomes more attractive when gold goes down...and there is obviously a lot of support at .31 and for most of the day today at .32.
The other good news is that many technical indicators are reset now...so we could see some traders getting back in here in the low .30's.
Not sure if you've still been watching BAA or not. Still not sure it will get to that .265 gap fill, but has pulled down to the low .30's once again. Share Holder meeting Thursday, although I expect that to be mostly uneventful unless there is a positive update regarding Namoya.
Faz, I don't think it will take waiting until ER to get this price moving northward again. I think some investors are still under the "prove it to me" impression, and want to continue to see these Q over Q improvements.
Come Thursday, if they are able to give an update on Namoya at the SH meeting, I expect the price to climb. The update I'm looking for is a more specific time frame (other than H2, 2nd half of '15) for commercial production. No update, or an update that commercial production won't start until Q4 will make us continue to trade sideways for a while, with some moves up, and some moves down. I believe an update that Namoya will be in commercial production sometime in Q3 will easily move this back into the .35-.38 range.
The next thing I'm really looking for is Q2 Mining Results, which should be out around July 6th. If they break yet another record, I expect this to go into the low .40's, maybe even higher depending on what we learn from Namoya. I am a little cautiously optimistic here, just because April last year was a month of torrential rain which really dampened their Q2 mining results. Keep in mind though, that this was prior to the improvements being installed at Twangiza which allow them to work more efficiently through the wet weather now).
Anyway, I see .40's again soon even with gold flat or down a bit. If gold goes up $50-$100, then .40's or .50's will come sooner.
For end of year, I expect we'll be over $1 as long as Namoya is running commercial production in Q3. It's really difficult to predict, simply because there are so many factors that contribute to that final PPS. For example, 1 year ago we were sitting .50ish, and that was with $1350 gold, but a really, really poor Q2. So now we are getting more solid numbers, but the POG is substantially lower.
Post 22496 has the conf call transcript. Here is the portion talking about fuel.
"We will only receive partial benefit of lower fuel prices in Q1 as we carried high levels of fuel during the wet season and we will drive down those fuel inventory levels as we move through the dry season, getting the full benefit of the lower diesel price."
Yeah, they mentioned it on their conf call, but as I recall, it was because they had to bring in a bunch of fuel prior to the big dip in prices due to having the fuel supply on hand during the rainy season (rather than needing to try to transport it in). I believe they thought the savings in Q2 would be better, but I don't think they really knew how much.
Thanks Braised.
I'm going back through Q1 now to see where this shows up. I'm not an accounte, but quite frankly it really didn't matter to me on where it hit the books, I'm just glad they made the deal.
Anyway, I found a line in Q1 on Page 6 for $19.7M. Net Proceeds from Derivative Liabilities. There is a Note 17 that pertains to this, and that note is detailed on Page 15.
There was a transaction cost of $300k, hence the $19.7M and not $20.0M.
http://www.banro.com/i/pdf/Interim-FS-Quarter-1-2015.pdf
How would it be debt with it being forward gold sales?
I imagine it is all booked as earnings. Keep in mind, $20M closed in Q1, and then $70M closed in Q2. To my knowledge though, all of that $70M is on the books. They went into quite a bit of detail on their Q1 Conf Call on where they planned to use the money, so I can't imagine it not being in their books.
I couldn't agree more. I hope folks are noticing if they are watching daily and see huge blocks dumped on the 1 minute chart that they notice the shares are often sucked right up with a very small drop in PPS. As a long, this is beautiful for me to see. It means that BAA is strong, and the consolidation as of late has formed a really strong base at .35, while also allowing some technical indicators to reset.
I don't believe this has ever shown up on the radar. I guess I could be wrong, and maybe I missed something, but that would be a pretty significant piece of info for me to forget. If you go back and dig and find something please let me know.
Yeah, very excited about that. BTW, were you in BAA when GDXJ had to unload last year? If so, do you remember that huge dump of shares AH's all in 1 block? I'm still confused on who the buyer would have been? Obviously it was something pre-arranged to make sure they were getting their ~.14/share, but that 10% of the OS changed hands...but I never recall seeing who picked them up.
Institutional Ownership
Looks like there have been some changes on a few sites, so thought I'd post.
Finviz still shows 57.10% Inst Ownership. My take is that this is on the high side (unless it is also including ownership in funds). The reason that I think this one is high, is that you'll see the Morningstar and iHub percentages for Institutional Ownership now show around 36%. The last time I checked, the 3 of these sites all were within a few percentage points of each other, so it seems that Finviz might not be quite up-to-date. One other note is that Finviz shows Insider Ownership at 8.25%, and we know they've been adding more.
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=baa
Morningstar now shows 36.72% Inst Ownership, but they also show an additional 15.84% ownership in funds for a combined 52.56%. I wish more sites would show the fund ownership, but this is the only one that I am aware of. For some reason Morningstar shows 0% Insider Ownership, and we all clearly know that isn't correct.
http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-overview.html?t=BAA®ion=usa&culture=en-US
Yahoo still shows 32.30% Inst Ownership. This has remained mostly unchanged for the past couple months or more. Another note is that Yahoo also shows 8.25% Insider Ownership, so it jives with Finviz.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BAA+Key+Statistics
iHub now shows 36% Inst Ownership which is down from the 50-something percent range from just a few weeks ago. I personally don't think institutions are selling, I think that some sites have just been tardy in updating their percentages when institutions were exiting like crazy between ~November and February.
http://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/AMEX/BAA/stock-price
Nasdaq...well, Nasdaq is wrong. They show Inst Ownership at 8.14%, and their number has pretty much been on the decline all year. I think the previous two times I've checked they were at ~18% and then ~11%, and now ~8%. I'm really not sure what is wrong with their site, but for as much as they change their percentage, I'd expect them to at least realize that Blackrock owns 10% of the common shares in just one of their entities.
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/baa/institutional-holdings
My final take is that I think that ~35% number seems accurate given 3 sites match up, and also because IR said that they estimated 20-30% ownership a month or so ago when I asked. I think institutional ownership is probably on the rise, but I'm most excited about the ownership in funds. As most of us know, as long as BAA holds .30+, GDXJ is likely to start buying upon their rebalancing here in a couple of weeks. GDXJ had to exit a 10% position last year at ~.14. So ~35% Inst Own + ~15% Fund Own + ~8% Insider Own gives us ~58% of the common shares locked in some strong hands.
The next ER should be in August. Probably the 2nd or 3rd week based off of past releases.
There needs to be some clarification on the dividend paid to the preferred shares.
The dividend is based of Q1 results, so it doesn't have anything to do with how Q2 is going. In theory Q2 could be going poorly, and they'd still pay that .75 dividend.
Now, for my opinion...I expect the week of July 6th we'll get another PR stating yet another Q of record production. I also expect some good updates on Namoya.
Hey Vlisp, BAA
Not sure if you've seen the insider buying that has been popping up on CandadianInsider.com the past couple of days. Kondrat and Clarke have bought ~375k shares between the 5th and 12th.
I know you flipped some, but have been waiting for your gap fill in the .26X range. Good luck to you if you are still camping there. I'm just not sure it will get there. Also, keep in mind that Q2 Mining Results should come out early in July (I am predicting July 6th, based off of the releases of their last 2 Q's).
Anyway, I'm sure you are watching, but just wanted to give you a heads up in case you've just been sitting on your bid.
BAA - Insider buying
More insider buying showing up on Candadian Insider. About 375k shares between Friday and Monday. Will have to keep an eye on this to see if more transactions post throughout the week.
Next expected news should be Q2 Minining Results. I'm guessing we'll see these during the week of July 6th, based off of their last two releases for mining results.
Yeah, low volume so far. But in reality, it is almost always like this. You have to think that even the average shares traded in a day are only about 1% of the companies common shares. In my opinion, this stock really isn't for trading unless you are content taking 10% profits and leaving, and then coming back at a later point.
Q2 Mining Results should be the next catalyst. I expect we'll see that PR the week of July 6th. Q2 ER should be early to mid-August, but we could get an update on the Namoya mine before then.
Very sorry to hear this my friend. My condolences.
If I was trading, I'd probably place my order at .28 or in the high .27XX range. There is a nice upward trend line there, and looks to be good for at least a 10% bounce...possibly more depending on company news, or gold price going up by a healthy amount.
What is your plan with BAA? Are you day trading, swing trading, or planning on long term? If you are planning on long term, I'd start scaling in if you are convinced the gap will fill. Whether you pay .25 or .35 will not matter long term. Gold is down today, so you might have a chance to get some more in the .2X range, but it will be interesting to see how the day goes after that 1 million share slap right at the close yesterday.
The news that caused the gap was good enough to break away in my opinion. I'm personally surprised to see that it ever touched .27 again, but I think longs and the bulls saw what was going on and just decided that it would be an opportunity for them to load again. Also, once .30 was breached, it sure appears that a ton of stops were triggered which helped that .27 be reached.
One thing I know for sure is that you have to form your own opinion. I'll give you an example of what was IMRS a few months back. It left a gap from .27 to .30. Matt was screaming buy whenever, AF said gap will fill. I waited for the gap to fill, but it never did. So instead of buying .30 and missing out on what would have been a bagger for sure and potential 4 bagger if I held to its 1.20's highs, I ended up missing out. Sadly, I ended up getting in late and passed on 20% gains, only to end up holding on too long so that I got caught up in the BK scheme.
That would be SWEET!!! My account is already quite green from BAA...that kind of run would be a whole different shade of green for me!!!
I hope you get your fill. I wouldn't say that if we were still sitting .31 or higher, but at this point, it might as well just completely close and then start the next leg up to fill that gap up above in the low-mid .40's. GLTY.
BAA - Congrats on your flip. Did you rebuy? I didn't sell a share, but I'm in my brokerage account and am planning to hold long term. Honestly, with the news, I was really surprised to see the gap fill (mostly fill, anyway).
I'm personally surprised filled. Thought we had a breakaway gap. Still haven't sold a single share.
It looks to me like once it fell through .30 that a bunch of stops triggered. Oh well, I've held through much worse times and not changing my game at this point. I'm still way in the green, and still believe we'll be closer to $1 than .30, .40 or even .50 cents when we get news that Namoya is at commercial production.
I received the same response today from Martin.
"The revised reserve estimate will be released shortly."
I also asked about institutional ownership. Back in January I asked the same question, and Naomi was able to estimate that Inst Ownership was ~40%, and that the 40% was probably on the low side because not all institutions are required to report.
Now they are estimating 20-30%. I know at best they can just give an estimate, but I also know they changed contract services between my January email and now. I'm not sure if those services are figuring things any differently. Also, Martin didn't give a break-down...whereas Naomi provided a detailed list to show how she got to her 40%.
Thanks Matt
So either way it works out, 5400 shares will be worth 0? Or does Deerfield have to own all the shares first? Still confused on this one. My first ride through it.
Tried learning with MNGA. Had MNGA not happened to me, I would have sold on that first retrace out of the .70's. After MNGA shook me out, I tried a different strategy with IMRS in ignoring (what I thought was) the noise, like the delay in the shareholders meeting, etc. Hell, MNGA received delisting notice for the PPS, then received another one shortly after because they had never had their shareholder meeting...they never even had it scheduled until they received the notice. So I vowed not to get shaken out, and I guess it just proves that you can't necessarily always learn from past experiences...other than to probably not play sub-$1 stocks...LOL
What would a buyout mean now though? At this point, I'm taking my shares to the grave. No reason for me to get $600 or $700 back. At some point will Deerfield just say alright ".10/share for all other shares"? or something like that?
IMRS - That sucks. Chapter 11. Two huge losses for me this year in MNGA and IMRS. Good thing I've already made that $11k back. Makes it a little easier to swallow.
I believe it is very probable that BAA will see $1 before year end. I think it could come as soon as Namoya is announced to be in commercial production, AND is hitting their projected target for gold production.
The only two things that I can foresee keeping this below $1 is 1) Another hiccup in Namoya, or delay of more than 1 quarter in hitting commercial production, and 2) The price of gold if it should collapse.
I personally don't think either of these things will happen. Anyone who has been following BAA for over the past year or longer has to admit that the company is doing a much better job in delivering on their commitments. They've also done a much better job in communicating to us common shareholders.
As for the price of gold, while there may be some downs, I believe gold will be much closer to $1400/oz by year end than it will be $1000/oz like some on this board have suggested.
I've said this before, and I'll say it again...Please tell me how you know Nasdaq Inst Own. is correct?
You morons that come to this board posting about Inst Own going down happen to pick the one website that shows 11%. You don't post that the next closest one is Yahoo which shows about 3x that...Nor you post nothing from Morningstar, FinViz or even our own iHub that show Inst Own in the 55-60% range.
So if you can please provide some proof or links showing that you know that 11% is right, I'll gladly listen. Otherwise I'd recommend that your DD involves something more than information from a single source.