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all good points... great discussion... and as bioman reminded us last week we are ONLY talking about one indication here... whereas stellar data pretty much validates the entire pipeline...
for me personally, i plan conservatively and then if the market surprises me its all good... i am thrilled with $25 short-term and successful at much less... as we all are on this board with our early cost basis...
post good data, i think the market values this at around $20...
post stellar data... $30
key partnership announcement runs it to $40
if the market gets the bigger picture regarding the entire pipeline it may very well run towards $50 within the next twelve months leading to pdufa and official approval... my experience is that the market does not always get the bigger picture right away..
i intend to sell about half of my portfolio along the ride up at attractive price points...
the scary thing here though is that the long-run valuation may very well be triple digits... i personally don't think a triple digit price target with a 24 to 36 month horizon is unreasonable if data is stellar... a lot can go wrong... and there will certainly be challenges from the competition... but i plan to hold about half of my shares and carefully watch the unfolding of the next 36 months...
at 50 million fully diluted shares a mc of 6 bil would be a pps of $120... not saying that will happen, certainly no guarantees in a competitive market place... but it is also not out of the realm of possibilities...
i'm sitting here chuckling to myself imagining getting flamed by the posters on that site... its a heartwarming enough thought that i may just have to try it... i've been live roasted enough face-to-face in my work... that being skewered on a message board by people who i wouldn't recognize in real life if they were standing right next to me... is, well, amusing... anyway, thanks for the warning... i'll be sure and put on the flame retardant flannel pjs b4 posting over there...
btw, i really appreciate what you add to this board... i enjoy your insights... and your sense of humor...
lol... personal opinion... looks like they are having fun... might have to keep an eye on that one for sh... & giggles...
no professional opinions today... its thanksgiving and i ain't working... thanks for the peek into investors hub version of the cukoos nest... time for a flyover...
Haven't even looked at it... have no idea about that particular one... I'm not invested in treatment indications within my profession at this time... I will leave it at that...
LOL... one thing I have learned over the years is that the patients are generally saner than the professionals... including yours truly...
Psychology's bullish case...
Disclosure: I am a mental health professional.
Investing is as much a psychological game as it is a financial one...
Individuals are profoundly self-interested. Most of us learn that our self-interests are better supported through pro-social behaviors, rather than anti-social ones. We even learn to justify our self-interested behaviors by seeing them through a pro-social lense. CLSN is engaged in a wonderfully pro-social mission. It's management could easily justify pre-data dilution or partnership by appealing to the greater good. They could easily justify this behavior to themselves. So psychologically the dilution of shares pre-data is an easy case to make... "The mission is so important here that we had to take this difficult step in order to ensure the solvency of the endeavor"...
Financially the prudent thing to do is sell shares at $6, 7, 8, 9 10... this is so prudent that some savy investors will do this... why wouldn't managment do this imminently sensible thing? Especially since it is supported both financially and psychologically... Dear shareholders... I hate to burst anyone's bubble... but I assure you the reason is not that CLSN's management is looking out for you...
The ONLY reason is because they are supremely confident in the outcome... short of some type of groupthink delusion (which is always possible) one has to wonder how can they be so confident?
Enter doxy... it is a well known toxic agent... it is h311 on all living cells including cancer cells... it kills... doxy is sometimes referred to as "red devil" and for good reason... traditional chemotherapy is like building a fire in the middle of the living room to keep warm... problem is sometimes you burn down the house... doxy is a red hot fire...
T-dox is like building a fireplace... now you have a warm cozy fire... safely contained... and the house survives... anyone bring the chestnuts? There is an underappreciated genius to this approach... the age of smart drugs is upon us and CLSN is a catalyst...
You can blind the data, but you cannot blind the eyes of an experienced oncologist... give me 15-20 minutes with a mentally ill person and I will give you a pretty good idea of what is going on... experience, observation, education... I know what to look for and what to ignore... I have seen it before...
Give an experienced oncologist access to patients in a trial, some of whom are on doxy, and the oncologist will be able to tell you which is which... people talk... stories travel... management listens... and acts accordingly... in their own self-interest... as it should be... and of course, also for the greater good
Yes, thank you bioman for pounding the table...
Excellent info... soon we will see some volume days which dwarf the ones you cite... with the low float... that means big pop on the pps...
Instant replay...
Closed at 4.38 on 11/8, company announced 380 on 11/9...
The last 8 trading sessions have been a blast...
11/9 4.60 +22
11/12 4.99 +39
11/13 5.34 +35
11/14 5.49 +15
11/15 5.24 -25
11/16 5.32 + 8
11/19 5.68 +36
11/20 6.09 +41
Straight-up. To the point. 5 solid reasons without spin. Excellent.
Exactly... there was a good deal of that... and when the trial was not halted the bear argument became... "see it wasn't halted, it must not be very effective"... and the bull argument became... "it must have been a near miss"... lol...
I just try to look at the whole picture and review arguments on both sides... I am overwhelmingly bullish on clsn... but not due to any of the arguments or suppositions around the interim analysis...
I could have written that more clearly. I should have written that it wasn't halted for efficacy.
All we really know is that the trial wasn't stopped for safety, futility or efficacy... and that the DMC voted unanimously to continue the trial... both bulls and bears interpret that through their own lenses... but it really doesn't tell us anything... its not a very convincing argument either way...
I think my bear case is weak... which is why I am very bullish on CLSN... but my bear case is quite a bit stronger than yours :)
Here is my bullet point cases for CLSN Bull and Bear... would appreciate any augmentation or comments from others on this board...
Bull case:
1) doxy works, heat works - less risk than dealing with a brand new, unknown indication
2) statistically favorable regulartory path 505(b)(2) means increased approval odds
3) Nasdaq report on trend that a higher percentage of first filings are being approved by the fda
4) many considerations given by various regulatory bodies
5) collaborations already in effect with significant bio-pharm companies, clearly there is interest here
6) anectdotal evidence that T-dox was a near miss for efficacy at interim
7) trial was not stopped for futility or safety issues... unanimous vote for completion of trial
8) management buy, buy, buy... no sell, sell, sell... management risking millions of dollars in share value by not selling
9) imprudent behavior by management in not raising capital prior to data... puts company and jobs at risk
10) imprudent behavior by management in not signing partnership prior to data... company/jobs at risk
11) doxy has well know side effect profile... thus MDs, PIs not entirely blinded... while a couple of anecdotal incidents mean nothing... dozens of such across 79 PIs, multiple clinical sites and many treating physicians... might add up to something... does management know more than we do... of course, they do...
12) delays in reaching 380 may mean treatment arm is effective
13) P1 results were striking and the fda signed off on skipping P2
Bear case:
1) doxy and heat together may not have sufficient synergistic effect to meet enpoints
2) fda rejects many indications, always risky getting something through fda
3) Ratain- Feuerstein rule regarding drug indications for companies with MC less than 300 mil
4) trial was not stopped at interim
5) delays in reaching 380 may mean control arm is exceeding expectations
6) management's imprudent behavior by not raising funds or partnering may be interpreted as foolish or incompetent
7) there was no P2 trial, so not much data to evaluate until P3 data is available
8) uncertain risk of distant mets to overall outcome regarding endpoints
9) risks in the macro economic environment including fiscal cliff
I don't think it is blasphemy to point out that CLSN could fail... it is, of course, possible... in fact I am constantly following through with due dilligence and would love to hear your best bear argument... I keep a running list of bull/bear arguments to ensure that I don't get too giddy/emotional over any one stock... I just have not found great bear arguments when it comes to CLSN... but I am still looking to augment my bear list and would love to hear your best bear take...
Agree... very conservative... 25 @ 50 mil fully diluted shares is still only 1.25 bil mc... great data plus a partnership announcement and I think we get to 25 and beyond in q1 '13... fda approval in early 2014 plus indications that this is technology is transferrable in other pipeline products will likely propel it to 50 a little only a year from now (a mc of only 2.5 bil)...
indications of early adoption as soc for liver cancer when monetization begins in 2014 would indicate that MT is correct about this being a billion dollar market... market cap at 15 to 20 times earnings... approval of other indications... and the pps actually begins to get a little ridiculous... yet that is what the numbers would indicate... there are plenty of hurdles between five dollars and triple digits... but triple digits, or its equivalent in stock splits is quite possible within the next few years... imo...
I hear what you are saying and mostly agree... buying low and selling high actually require the savy investor to quiet his or her own emotions and go against the herd as well as against our emotional (lymibic system) brain... and I do not doubt that good technical analysis does reflect market sentiment in some way that may be predictive over the short run... and therefore useful to both traders and investors...
Over the long run, fundamentals are king... and with developmental biotechs... data is the biggest, baddest king... jmo... of course, as Keynes once said "in the long run we are all dead" :)
I like to own stock... ownership makes sense to me... and I have not to this point purchased options, though I have enjoyed eavesdropping on options discussions on this board... I am interested in learning more...
I have seen several posts like this one I am responding to which suggest that the writers of options have the resources to manipulate pps until options expire effectively screwing the options purchaser...
If that is the case, then options would seem to be a risky play... if the writer has the means to effectively run out the clock, then doesn't that change the risk/reward equation in a way that is unfavorable to the purchaser?
LOL... I trade on fundamentals too... and find TA to be mostly indecipherable(for me), though I know it often moves the market in the short run... glowing candles, receding triangles and such leave me clueless... though I do appreciate the guys giving us their take on such things... maybe one day I will learn... hey I only just got my first smart phone...
You raise a fair point... we should never take success for granted in equity investing (and especially in this sector)... and I will have some anxiety right there beside you when January comes... because we won't really know, until we know... I will be nervous and excited and hopeful... right there with you...
Well DNDN was actually successful in P3 data and jumped to +20 pps... its problems have come post the P3 data release...
GNVC's p3 trial was halted at a 24-month iterim review for futility as efficacy results deteriorated from 12 and 18 month reviews... prior to the halt there were warning signs about possibile futility... most notably no improvement in OS in earlier trials...
CLSN may very well fail, I don't think so, but it may... but the two you site are not particularly troubling to me...
CLSN may go it alone re: commercialization in US... seeking global and regional partners for international marketing...
Looks like roughly a million shares traded by noon...
Excellent conference call... Management is saying all the right things... optimistic regarding results... applications for multiple international markets simultaneously upon approval... partnership offers to be considered post data... other trials being slowed down pre-data in order to preserve cash and avoid unnecessary dilution... other trials will be ramped up again post data (presumption is new offering at much higher pps means much lower dilution for same cash)... pipeline looks awesome re: long-term potential...
Close above $5 today and retest $6 by the end of the week... imo...
The CC on Monday is going to really stoke the fires and get this locomotive moving...
There it is... Now the train is starting to pick up some steam...
Volume is up today... that is a good sign... CC on Monday... this is a little like a freight train... takes a minute to get the momentum going again when it's been stalled on the tracks for awhile... my guess is that there will be some shorts covering today... all aboard!!!
LOL... another 4.38 close would be both hilarious and ridiculous... if they bring it in at 4.38 again I tip my cap...
Quite possible... CLSN has already shocked me more than once with pps movement in both directions...
You might be right, but I don't think so... we will certainly find out in the days ahead... here is what I see...
1) volume picking up today
2) CC on Monday almost certain to be very enthusiastic presentation
3) Conference next week, probably more conferences to come
4) Uncertainty removed today regarding timing of 380
5) No dilution pre-data is strongly confirmed
Hedges, bashers and shorts have been playing with this stock for a month and a half now... but the next run is about to begin... I'm not saying we will make it all the way to $10 before the next round of manipulation begins... but we will move closer to $10 and further away from $2 imo...
There will be more gamesmanship following this next run and it will continue in one form or another right up to data... but higher highs and higher lows will continue to mark the upward trend... a trend which began back in June and which has not abated...
That is the critical portion of the announcement... searched my couch today for spare change... sold a bit of underperforming stock... picked up another 1,000+ shares... the boat is riding a little low in the water... this long retrenchment from late September until early November has been frustrating, but it has provided extra buy in time...
I want to give an overdue thanks to Bio and all of the knowledgeable investors on this board... I've lurked and learned here for awhile, long before posting and have built a substantial position (at least substantial for me) based on my own dd, which was signficantly aided by information picked up on this site...
I generally hate winter after the holidays... but for some reason I am really looking forward to January this year
Hold or get out... exactly right... the time to decide is at hand... data could come at any time... literally at any time... between now and the eoy... as for me... I bought a little more this morning... manipulation is frustrating, but it does create a nice price point... :)
When data comes... I will have either a very, very good day or a very bad day... there really is little chance of having an average day, on that day, for me... the funny thing is... funny, ironic... somewhere someone else will sometime thereafter have a very, very bad day... when an oncologist delivers the diagnosis of liver cancer... a tumor is found... in excess of 5 cm... it does not look good... prognosis is poor.... but wait... there is this new treatment... just recently approved by the FDA... maybe that person can have some more good days thanks to the data that we await... if you think we investors have a lot riding on this... well...
Mariah Fairre "A nauseating blend of fear and anticipation"
Over the edge
I stand on the edge of a great precipice,
A dream filling the expanse in front of me
Misty grey, entirely unsure
I rock back on my heels
It’s not too late to turn around.
Comfort, security, familiarity
Are waiting behind me,
In the small world I’ve always known
But ahead…
I don’t know what waits for me beneath the mist
If I jump off this precipice
The bottom might be hard and cold and empty
If the fall breaks me, will it hurt?
One foot out and my stomach drops
A nauseating blend of fear and anticipation
As I hang over the edge of my small world
A deep breath in,
And a quiet prayer for an adventure.
I jump
And I fly.
Volume is key to next run and catalyst is key to volume. Shorts will play all day with this piddly volume... the good news is that we seem to have bottomed out... when the next run occurs no one will have to guess whether or not it is underway... it will be self-evident... good news is close... so close... it is tantalizingly close...
LOL... it is a faithless correction to be sure... great point regarding the options action... this is a short-term play pure and simple, rather than a true correction, and the options really expose that...
Reasons that make clear this is manipulation:
1) Options action
2) Low volume
3) Re-appearing large order false bottom that never fills, now you see it... now you don't... there it is again...
4) Management's behavior (no selling, no partner, no panic)
Worry not... this is like a sling-shot... the further it is pulled back, the more tension is built, and the further it will fly once it is released... imo...
It's info like this that keeps me hanging around... thanks...
I agree. I don't think we head north again without substantial volume. With this low volume it is just to easy to manipulate... And we won't get volume without a significant catalyst at this point... CC, announcement of data, partnership... some good news will be required to trigger a run... but once she runs, she will run hard... "Katy bar the door"... Bio's thundering herd will be working in our favor then!
LOL! I'll put that info into my new "leaf" technical indicator analysis and see what pops out...
While I knew this was going on that number is surprisingly high to me... this is not only important in understanding the market, but is especially appropo to CLSN... I have looked long and hard at the bear arguments for T-dox... there are a few that are clinically driven... such as the risk of distant mets in regard to meeting 33% improvement on PFS... it is a valid concern, but a closer look at distant mets strongly suggests that T-dox will impact this in a favorable way as well... there really aren't great clinical arguments on the bear side of this P3 trial...
This leaves the two primary bear arguments that I have heard:
1) Most new indications fail, so T-dox is more likely to fail.
2) If T-dox were such a great treatment the collective wisdom of the market would have CLSN shares priced higher.
Point 1 is what it is... while true more indications fail then succeed this actually suggests nothing specific about T-dox and if this is all you have as a bear, then you would logically short every biotech or avoid the sector all together... there never would be a good reason to invest in biotechs...
Point 2 brings us back to algorithmic trading and the question: does the collective wisdom of the market truly have superior wisdom in terms of valuation of a stock. In the short run I have to say "no" and the stat Bio cites is a great example of why it doesn't... The current pps does not reflect millions of shareholders carefully considering the likelihood of T-dox's success or failure in the market place... it reflects algorithms built largely around technical indicators and moment trading for small short term profits... it reflects daytraders trying to mimic such trend movement to snare their own short term profits... it reflects shorts trying to ride downward macro and micro treands for short term profits... and as what appears to be a significan minority... it also reflects those of us who have used various valuation models and employed strategies for a longer term wealth creation strategy... those of us who are investors are the minority in the modern stock market... that is why the things we observe on a day-to-day basis often do not make sense...
The market does wise up over the long run... but in the short run sometimes it is just plain dumb... jmo