Celsion Corporation (CLSN)

[macnqueso]

While I knew this was going on that number is surprisingly high to me... this is not only important in understanding the market, but is especially appropo to CLSN... I have looked long and hard at the bear arguments for T-dox... there are a few that are clinically driven... such as the risk of distant mets in regard to meeting 33% improvement on PFS... it is a valid concern, but a closer look at distant mets strongly suggests that T-dox will impact this in a favorable way as well... there really aren't great clinical arguments on the bear side of this P3 trial...

This leaves the two primary bear arguments that I have heard:

1) Most new indications fail, so T-dox is more likely to fail.

2) If T-dox were such a great treatment the collective wisdom of the market would have CLSN shares priced higher.

Point 1 is what it is... while true more indications fail then succeed this actually suggests nothing specific about T-dox and if this is all you have as a bear, then you would logically short every biotech or avoid the sector all together... there never would be a good reason to invest in biotechs...

Point 2 brings us back to algorithmic trading and the question: does the collective wisdom of the market truly have superior wisdom in terms of valuation of a stock. In the short run I have to say "no" and the stat Bio cites is a great example of why it doesn't... The current pps does not reflect millions of shareholders carefully considering the likelihood of T-dox's success or failure in the market place... it reflects algorithms built largely around technical indicators and moment trading for small short term profits... it reflects daytraders trying to mimic such trend movement to snare their own short term profits... it reflects shorts trying to ride downward macro and micro treands for short term profits... and as what appears to be a significan minority... it also reflects those of us who have used various valuation models and employed strategies for a longer term wealth creation strategy... those of us who are investors are the minority in the modern stock market... that is why the things we observe on a day-to-day basis often do not make sense...

The market does wise up over the long run... but in the short run sometimes it is just plain dumb... jmo