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I know you're long. I think this is still a great play, and a great opportunity. I do agree with you that I'd rather them not have to give away future production...however, the alternative I fear would've been much worse and would've resulted in many of us losing a lot of money.
One thing that I see as promising is that they always seem to work their way through their deals. I'm hopeful that this is the case with some of these longer term deals, in that when they really get on their feet and gold goes to $1500+ like we expect, then at that time they can buy their way out of (or at least restructure) their deals.
As I recall, the deal announced last February (signed in April, I believe) had a buyout clause. I just want them to address their debt and payments first.
But the dilution was known about when they originally PR'd this at the end of December. Today's news doesn't change any of that. Even with ~300M O/S, there is still too much value to be had here.
I'm not normally one to brag, but I even impressed myself with this one from early December. Gold at $1251.10. Hopefully most of you believed me instead of "Special K".
I guess I'm more of a realist, or maybe just focus on the shorter term, but gold at $1250 or $1300 isn't out of the realm.
Hopefully Braised can help out. He understands these things as well as anyone. To me it looks like what is being reported is old news. Morningstar shows Blackrock unloading these shares to ~18 million back on 5/31/15.
I also see the filing date for this was 12/31/15...So is Blackrock required to provide an annual update of what shares they own? The only other thing I noticed is that the filing lists the subsidiaries. So if all of those shares are included too, then they likely went down more than the 5-6 million shares from ~24M to ~18M.
Nice to see that we are closer to my $1250-$1300 prediction rather than "special" K's $985. I still believe we will see the $1250-$1300 range in early '16.
Loving the volume so far. Could really use a 2+ million day. Go BAA!
Hey All - Hopefully everyone is starting to find their patience again. Just wanted to give a little bright side to your day. Martin just responded to a simple question about the financing...
XXXXXXXXX,
We will certainly issue a press release when the financing closes. It is expected to close within the next few days.
Martin
So lets hope for a nice PR (maybe next Monday or Tuesday morning), and lets also hope for gold to have broken out of the $1130's and be running to $1200.
There was at least another one too. But I think it was the last $10M that was part of last years $100M financing. Check Q3 2015, as I recall, it's listed in there. I think the lender was unnamed, but I do recall that they owed extra ounces on anything under $1150 gold.
I don't think we see Q4/Year-end earnings until the last week of March (if memory serves me correctly)...So probably no substantial news for ~2 months.
Thanks...Still no luck from my end...Your google must choose to work better than mine...
No hits on either Banro - the last 24 hours, or Namoya - the last 24 hours.
I should clarify, obviously there are hits and articles that come up...but nothing related to this recent event.
Thank you for providing the links. How are you finding this information? A simple google search for me is yielding nothing related to these events.
Trying to determine if this is real, or if this is another one of those WSJ type news articles that talks about Banro 5+ years ago like it is current state.
Could be worse...We could be GSS and down 4+% today...
Patience, and we'll all be just fine...GO BAA!!!
Not sure. This has always seemed to be the pattern for me. Even a lot of times after a huge block goes off, you end up seeing someone sell at the bid for 100 shares.
Pretty thin on the Ask this morning.
Go BAA
Found this on the Orion's board. We have a few here...LOL...Go BAA
Science Says: Internet Trolls Are Sadists
JUST IGNORE THEM
By Luke Roney, Newser Staff
Posted Jan 24, 2016 11:03 AM CST
http://www.newser.com/story/219233/science-says-internet-trolls-are-sadists.html
We already know Internet trolls are jerks. Now, thanks to a video on YouTube channel AsapScience, we know a little bit more about why, CNET reports. In short, Internet trolls exhibit "dark traits," such as Machiavellianism, narcissism, and, "very high levels of sadism," which means they "have fun distressing others by being argumentative and disruptive." The video is based on a research paper from 2014 that found 5.6% of 1,215 survey respondents self-identified as Internet trolls, or at least fessed up to enjoying trolling activities. CNET notes that it's safe to assume that some trolls would not self-identify, so the true percentage is likely higher.
Dark traits notwithstanding, AsapScience reassures us that trolls "aren't necessarily serial killers or bad people." However, "they get an emotional reward when causing or observing the suffering of others." According to the research paper, the troll persona reflects both a person's actual personality and their ideal self, concluding that, "for those with sadistic personalities, that ideal self may be a villain of chaos and mayhem—the online trickster we fear, envy, and love to hate: the cyber-troll." So how do you vanquish a troll? "Ignore them," AsapScience says, "and you're likely to diminish their effort."
I haven't been keeping up with all of your posts, but I'm guessing that your $50k+ gamble on an oil bounce is paying off nicely today. Great timing!!!
Yep buddy...Again, this one is do or die for me. All long term shares. Been contemplating adding more money to the trading account, but the wife and I have talking about a newer house again, and I also have other hobbies that aren't free.
I agree with wanting this one to run and maybe moving to oil. Unfortunately, I think the only things that will make this run quick are a massive spike in gold or news on a buyout or joint venture. Personally, I am still looking at a run in gold.
One other thing, I saw you mentioned UWTI...Just be careful with that one as they seem to dilute the hell out of it when Oil runs. I'd have to look back at some posts on another board I follow, but I remember thinking the same thing when I was in it (it never seemed to move as much up as it did down).
Well hope to see you back sooner than later. Going to miss the charts. Good luck in your other trades.
Are you out buddy? Or just holding and waiting?
Jeez...where have we heard that before? Please tell me when we are going to hit this target that you've been preaching about the past 12+ months...
Yeah, that was me (see below)...seems to always happen with BAA. However, based off what I wrote last week, I don't see that the candle body gap has closed yet, so we might be in for another drop. I'm showing the low for today as .1788.
TeamTOC Wednesday, 01/06/16 11:30:27 AM
Re: VSAStory post# 46047
Post # 46052 of 46241 Go
Slight candle body gap from .1711 to .1741. BAA has been known to fill gaps. Seems to be a lot of support at .20 though, and we also have the 50 DMA at .18 supporting us. I'm not going to rule anything out in regards to if it fills or not, but right now the news they are feeding and gold prices are in our favor.
I supposed maybe it fills if gold stalls out or goes down, or if production report shows that Namoya is still not commercial.
Is it just me, or is it weird that Yahoo doesn't have the PR listed under the news yet?
Agreed! Time to mine some gold now. Will be nice to see Namoya numbers start approaching Twangiza numbers.
Looks like they were effected by rain, which kind of p's me off because Martin specifically told me what they were receiving was "seasonal". Twangiza was down about 4k ounces from Q3, and obviously Namoya needs to produce more, but that was probably low due to late commissioning of CAT's plus the rain.
Let's hope for a dry Q1. This is typically their rainy season, and I know the last couple of years they've seemed to have very wet months in April to start out Q2.
That BAA news I was telling you about came today pre-market as expected.
http://www.banro.com/news-events/news-releases/banro-announces-q4-and-full-year-2015-production-r-20160111
Most important thing is they have officially declared commercial production at Namoya. Hopefully gold continues its uptrend this week, and BAA will be rising.
BAA needs a catalyst to push through that .23 mark (200dma). Just giving a heads up that the catalyst could come this week. Production numbers will be out...guessing either tomorrow pre-market or Tuesday pre-market. Along with that will be an update on Namoya. The 3rd catalyst would be POG.
Don't forget BAA on your list...At .21 now. Just secured ~$100M in financing, and should be seeing a PR this week on Q4 production results, along with an update on their Namoya mine.
If gold keeps cooperating and we get a Namoya announcement, I think this one will run 50-100% pretty easily. Namoya delays have kept this one in the mud forever. Definitely worth keeping an eye on though.
I agree. This thing can run at anytime. Like GIM though, I've been waiting for that run for almost 2 years. Just been patient. The time will come.
Slight candle body gap from .1711 to .1741. BAA has been known to fill gaps. Seems to be a lot of support at .20 though, and we also have the 50 DMA at .18 supporting us. I'm not going to rule anything out in regards to if it fills or not, but right now the news they are feeding and gold prices are in our favor.
I supposed maybe it fills if gold stalls out or goes down, or if production report shows that Namoya is still not commercial.
In addition, if gold continues lower, how long until Banro's low AISC starts being worth more than what it appears to be? I just can't imagine many miners continuing to produce while losing money...maybe, but I can't imagine they could withhold suspending or slowing operations for too crazy long (more than 6 months).
Personally, I believe gold is going up. Many have talked sub-$1000, but I don't see it. I still think we will see a pretty good move up sooner rather than later.
Hey Vlisp...someone just posted a nice analyst link on the B A A board a little while ago...3 analysts were a Hold one month ago, now 2 are up to Outperform with 1 still at Hold. Pretty nice predictions for PPS too in the next 12 months.
Good move on buying more!
Hell Yeah...Looking good!
Maybe you meant to respond to me. I was not worried about the flooding as the DRC is very large, as you mentioned.
What I do worry about at times is new investors or even short term investors selling or not entering based off of misinformation. My post was simple enough, and proved that with 5 mins of DD one could prove that the mines were most likely not effected by anything other than normal rains. Top that off with a quick email to IR, and that response was just the cherry on top.
BAA is golden. Hopefully gold goes to my ~$1275 range before K's $985. Exciting week next week with the Fed.
Did you talk nice to them in your questions? If so, I must just have the magic touch...LOL. I only sent them an email an hour or two ago.
Here is Martin's response regarding rainfall...
Dear -------
Rainfall for this rainy season has been fairly inconsistent, outside of normal patters for this time of year, but there has been no material impact on operations.
Martin
Martin Jones
Chairman, Banro Foundation
Banro Corporation
Description: Description: Banro Header II.jpg
1 First Canadian Place, Suite 7070
100 King St. West
Toronto, ON
CANADA M5X 1E3
O: 416 366-2221 ext 3213
C: 416 500-4422
F: 416 366-7722
Skype: martin.jones880
mjones@banro.com
Visit our website at: www.banro.com
That sounds pretty sweet. I should've left the mapping to the expert then...LOL. I'm not sure if you have any other tools to use or not, but it would be interesting to know if you came up with estimates that matched mine.
Go BAA!!!
I have not tried to email them until today. I'll let you know what I hear back (if I do hear back).
I'm not sure what GIS is, so I'd have to answer no.
By overlay, what I meant was I used the link that showed the rainfall, along with google maps, and then also the map showing the locations of Twangiza and Namoya from Banro's site. It was kind of crude, but overlaying those maps showed me that Twangiza has likely seen precipitation in the 50-100mm range over the last 10 days, and Namoya has seen in the 25-75mm range. Very crude, but nothing to make me overly concerned of higher than normal rainfall in that part of the DRC.
Thank you. Doing some map overlays, both mine locations appear to be in the range of 50-100mm. It's actually possible that Namoya is closer to the lower end (say 25-50mm).
I appreciate you posting...it just goes to show that DD is still important...It so easy for someone to post "flooding in the Congo", and then for someone to assume that Banro is instantly effected.
I've also emailed IR to see if they could comment on whether or not the rains have been any heavier, or what they would consider seasonal.
Thanks again!
There has been quite a bit of talk about flooding in the DRC. Can anyone provide any links that shows this is in the eastern part of the DRC near Twangiza and Namoya? All I can find is that there has been bad flooding near Kinshasa, which is located in the western part of the DRC.
Nice to see that you were rewarded on this one. Have you held some shares all along, or were you in and out? This one would've turned out nice for me had my stop not triggered under .60 back in that Jan/Feb time-frame.