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Lentinman: DGIX
I don't know the Company that well, nor do I have much knowledge of the pewter business, but the recent growth impresses me. 4 years is an eternity in the retail marketplace and I prefer to focus on more recent results. I'm hoping that the recent growth is a harbinger of increasing demand for pewter, and/or wider distribution of the Company's products.
As for waste in our Society ... there's lots of it. Or perhaps none at all, depending on one's view. The Universe boasts a far greater capacity for waste than mankind. The Sun casts an infintessimally small proportion of its light on earth ... and the rest all goes to waste. But, alas, the situation with the stars is far worse. Life could indeed thrive without any stars at all, save for one. And yet countless trillions of stars shed their light unto that great infinite void of space. But perhaps it's only symbolism, not waste at all !
kozuh, LNG
I agree with your view. It's going to be very dangerous and expensive to transport liquified natural gas. But it will happen, and already is to a limited extent. But at the current valuation, I'd rather be short than long LNG. But I prefer not being in the stock altogether, because these flyers sometimes get to incredible heights. A great story, but profits are still off in the distant future.
Lentinman: DGIX
I'm surprised you don't like DGIX. I can't get excited about pewter either, but then again I don't have paintings on the wall. But plenty of people like that stuff ... my grandmother was crazy about pewter. Maybe it's taking off in this country, though I think it's still far more popular in Europe. Anyway, DGIX showed pretty strong revenue and EPS growth in their last 2 quarters, not just in Q3. 18% revenue growth and EPS of .07 vs .01 for the trailing 6 month y/y comparison. That's impressive considering the trailing PE of 6, fully taxed and diluted. Extremely few microcaps from this board can compete with that on a fully taxed basis. And maybe their holiday sales were even stronger than last year. It sure looks like they're getting better distribution of their products. Plus they have a great balance sheet ... no long term debt, a current ratio of greater than 3 to 1, and tangible book value near the stock price. The fact that they carry little cash on the books is of no consequence ... they can borrow whatever they need from their bank on revolving credit. It just shows they run a 'tight ship'. I like that. The fickle consumer ? Always a risk in the retail trade, but I like this better than $300 jeans.
DGIX showing some good volume
I think it deserves a higher valuation than .85, considering the strong growth, solid balance sheet (book value of .62), and low PE on fully taxed and diluted earnings. Dyna Group International is a manufacturer of a wide range of pewter based consumer products and has shown solid growth over the last 3 years with EPS of .02 in 2002, .08 in 2003 and on track for .14 in 2004, assuming the usual seasonal strength in Q4. Earnings are fully taxed and diluted. Tangible book value is .62 with no long term debt. This stock is thinly traded, but that is starting to change as it gets discovered. Plenty of upside potential from these levels, especially if the earnings growth continues.
kozuh: LNG
I thought you were bullish on LNG ? Certainly the stock is doing extremely well, and even this year it's up another 10% in a down market. Yet now you seem negative on LNG, and positive on LPG ? What's the scoop ?
IIIN results somewhat disappointing
EPS of $0.59 for the December quarter. Results have been declining sequentially from EPS of $1.98 in the June quarter, and $1.27 in September. But management made some positive remarks looking forward. Nonetheless, I had expected better earnings from IIIN after TONS reported outstanding results for their November quarter.
MOUNT AIRY, N.C., Jan. 24 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Insteel Industries, Inc. (Nasdaq: IIIN - News) today announced record earnings and sales for the first quarter ended January 1, 2005. Net earnings for the first quarter increased to $5.6 million, or $0.59 per diluted share, compared with $0.7 million, or $0.08 per diluted share for the same period last year. Sales for the first quarter increased 33% to $74.7 million from $56.1 million in the prior year quarter. Average selling prices for the first quarter rose 74% while shipments decreased 24% from the prior year levels.
"We are pleased by the favorable margin environment that continued through the first quarter, particularly in view of our soft order book and reduced production levels," said H.O. Woltz III, Insteel's president and chief executive officer. "Shipments declined sharply as we had anticipated due to the usual seasonal downturn in construction activity compounded by inventory reduction measures that were pursued within our customer base. In response, we scheduled downtime at all of our facilities around the holidays which unfavorably impacted unit conversion costs. Spreads between average selling prices and the cost of our primary raw material, hot-rolled steel wire rod, were relatively stable with the exception of our standard mesh product line, where we encountered pricing pressure. The continued pricing discipline has served to sustain the margin improvement for Insteel as well as for the industry as a whole in spite of the reduced volumes."
Operating activities used $3.9 million of cash for the first quarter while providing $10.6 million for the same period last year due to a significant increase in inventories in the current year. The inventory increase was driven by the reduced production schedules and weak shipments in the current quarter together with the receipt of imported raw materials that were ordered during the third and fourth fiscal quarters. The Company's long-term debt rose by $3.0 million from the beginning of the fiscal year, primarily as a result of the increased inventory investment.
Woltz commented, "Our reliance on offshore raw material sources made it impossible to adjust purchases to the lower level of shipments that we experienced during the quarter. While we must address our current inventory imbalance, we are encouraged by the expansion of domestic capacity during the quarter that has given us the flexibility to reduce our utilization of offshore sources going forward. We expect the combination of reduced purchases and the anticipated recovery in order entry rates to restore a reasonable balance between inventories and shipment levels within the next 60 to 90 days."
Based on its excess cash flow for fiscal 2004 as defined in the Company's credit agreement, in December 2004, the Company prepaid $11.4 million of term debt on its senior secured credit facility. The prepayment enabled the Company to pay off the $4.4 million balance outstanding on Term Loan B and pay down Term Loan A by $7.0 million, which will reduce the Company's average borrowing rate going forward. As of January 1, 2005, approximately $55.9 million was outstanding on the senior secured credit facility with $48.3 million drawn and $10.2 million of additional borrowing capacity available on the revolver, and $7.6 million outstanding on Term Loan A. Average borrowing rates under the credit facility were 5.58% on the revolver and 6.45% on Term Loan A as of January 1, 2005. As previously reported, following the end of the quarter, the Company and its lender agreed to an amendment to the credit facility which increased the amount of the revolver from $60.0 million to $75.0 million and expanded the maximum inventory borrowing base from $35.0 million to $45.0 million, providing additional liquidity.
Outlook
Commenting on the outlook for fiscal 2005, Woltz said, "In spite of the weak shipments that we experienced during the quarter, our customers remain bullish about the business prospects for 2005. The anticipated recovery in the nonresidential construction sector together with resolution of the federal highway funding successor to TEA-21 should favorably impact the demand for concrete reinforcing products. Pricing for raw materials appears to have stabilized at historically high levels and we detect a firm commitment on the part of our vendors to extend the positive trends in their financial performance that they have enjoyed for the past few quarters. The stability in our raw material markets together with the prospects for improved order levels cause us to be optimistic about Insteel's financial outlook through the balance of fiscal 2005. This is not to say, however, that we are forecasting an improvement over the record results of 2004.
We are proceeding with the previously announced expansions of our engineered structural mesh ("ESM") and PC strand businesses. We currently expect the ESM production line to be fully operational during the third fiscal quarter of 2005. The reconfiguration and expansion of our PC strand operation in Gallatin, Tennessee will begin during the current quarter and is currently projected to be completed during the fourth fiscal quarter of 2006. The first phase of the project will include the installation and start up of a new production line which will be followed by the consolidation of our Gallatin manufacturing activities into one facility. We believe that the timing for these projects is opportune in view of the expected growth in demand for these products in addition to the cost reductions that we expect to realize."
Critics Doubt Liquefied Natural Gas Safety
By H. JOSEF HEBERT, Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON - When an explosion flattened a liquefied natural gas plant in Algeria, killing 30 workers, one might say the heat was felt half a world away — in coastal towns in New England, Alabama and California. The Algerian inferno a year ago undermined industry arguments that the modern era of LNG transport is inherently safe. It also became rallying point for groups fighting proposed new LNG terminals in their towns.
Companies are beginning to gear up for LNG imports. As many as a dozen new terminals are expected over the next decade. To many energy experts, fear of a devastating LNG fire from an accident or terrorist attack is the toughest obstacle facing the industry.
A recent government report, the most comprehensive examination of LNG tanker risks to date, concluded that terrorists have the capability to tear a huge hole into a tanker. That would unleash a spill and intense fire that would cause major injuries and burn buildings as far as one-third of a mile away. People a mile away could suffer second degree burns, the report said.
LNG imports are widely acknowledged to be crucial in meeting future natural gas needs. Yet public concern about safety has led more than a half-dozen communities to reject an LNG import terminal or rally against a proposed facility.
Critics want double-hulled tankers carrying more than 30 million gallons of LNG barred from traversing waterways in populated areas or within a mile of homes, schools and office buildings.
Industry advocates say the safety risks are exaggerated, citing a 40-year history of more than 35,000 shipments of LNG worldwide without a significant release of the fuel or a fire.
They also argue that the Algerian accident, involving a liquid gas leak and explosion set off by a spark from a boiler, could not happen at U.S. facilities because of different equipment and design.
The recent federal study by Sandia National Laboratory found potentially harrowing consequences from spills. The report also said the chance of an intentional spill could be reduced greatly with "a halo of security" for arriving tankers.
"We can significantly reduce the likelihood of a terrorist attack occurring with security planning and mitigation," says Mark Maddox, a deputy assistant secretary for fossil fuels at the Energy Department, which commissioned the Sandia study.
Richard Sharples, executive director of the Center for Liquefied Natural Gas, an industry trade group, does not dispute the Sandia report's assessment of a "worst case" LNG accident.
But, he says, the "remarkable safety record" and close government scrutiny of LNG shipments make such an accident a "low probability."
The Sandia study, in fact, concludes the risks of an accidental release of LNG from a tanker are small. But it is post-Sept. 11 fears about terrorism that bring a new dimension to the debate over LNG transport.
For nearly half a century, the emphasis has been on preventing human error, not intentional acts.
Since the terrorist attacks, the Coast Guard has imposed tighter security on LNG tankers. Measures include four days notice of a tanker's arrival, information on its last ports of call and crew, and special sweeps and vessel boardings.
Rear Adm. Thomas Gilmour, the Coast Guard's assistant commandant for marine safety and security, said the Sandia findings will help "in further refining our risk reduction efforts." The study's classified version includes specific attack scenarios and their likely impact.
As a frosty liquid, kept at minus-260 degrees Fahrenheit, LNG cannot explode or catch fire. Various studies agree that if a tanker is breached by a bomb or missile, the liquid flowing from its icy storage instantaneously would become a gas and ignite. The result: an extremely hot fire, as wide as three football fields.
The Sandia study concluded that a terrorist attack could blast a large enough hole — and possibly several holes — that would cause cascading damage. The cold liquid and intense heat of the fire would weaken adjacent tanks, causing them to fail and adding to the size of the spill and the blaze atop the water.
"The fire from such a spill would be very large ... perhaps up to a half-mile in diameter, or larger if more of the containment system failed," says Jerry Havens, a professor of chemical engineering at the University of Arkansas.
"We have no experience with fires this large, but we do know they could not be extinguished. They would have to burn themselves out," says Havens, who over three decades has studied the likely impact of LNG fires.
The industry's good safety record has actually made it harder to determine how much damage a large spill might cause. The only tests have been on spills of 10,000 gallons of LNG, not the 3 million gallons or more that scientists believe would be released if a tanker were breached by a bomb or missile.
Computer models about a major LNG vessel spill have produced widely different results.
One study assumed only a 3-foot hole and that waves would limit the spread of the fire. A second study assumed a breach of more than 30 feet across, resulting in a rapid spill and much bigger fire.
These models are uncertain because they rely on assumptions "about which fair-minded analysts may legitimately disagree," the Congressional Research Service said.
The Sandia study was ordered with the hope of resolving some of that disagreement.
It found "that the worst that can happen or near worst ... is really more than the industry has admitted so far," says James Fay, a semiretired professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (news - web sites).
Since 1970, Fay has argued the government and industry were understating the potential dangers of a major fire.
In an interview, he said the Sandia study documented "that the worst that can happen is very bad." He scoffed at the suggestion that the impact of an LNG spill and fire could be mitigated.
"The fire is over in five minutes," he said. "You can't sound fire alarms and tell people to shuttle away from the harmful effects."
Rep. Ed Markey, D-Mass., who has pressed the Bush administration for tighter restrictions on siting LNG terminals, said the Sandia report has "destroyed any argument that LNG facilities should be based in urban areas."
A 1979 law says LNG regulators should "encourage" remote siting of import terminals.
Markey, however, says regulators have ignored Congress' intent and continued to consider sites in densely populated areas, especially in the Northeast where LNG facilities are being proposed in Providence, R.I., and in Fall River, Mass., and where tankers would travel through the heart of the community.
___
Mark Robinson, a senior official at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (news - web sites) who is involved in LNG terminal siting, says he has no illusion about the prospects of an LNG-fed inferno spreading over water.
"It's a fire that can't happen," he said from his office near the Capitol. He meant that it cannot be allowed to happen. But he also insists that federal security requirements are sufficient to prevent terrorists from causing a spill.
"If I had to worry about my safety, or my family's safety, I'm a lot more worried working this close to the Capitol building than I would be living close to an LNG facility," he says.
Energy regulators have a dozen LNG terminal site proposals under consideration. They have approved expanding the four existing terminals and have given a green light to three new ones on the Gulf Coast.
Regulators must ensure the risk "is as close to zero as possible" while recognizing the need for reliable and affordable supplies of LNG, said the commission's chairman, Pat Wood, in an interview.
But he added that he and fellow commissioners "also recognize there is an economic need here if you want to have reliable and affordable supplies" of natural gas.
A native of Port Arthur, Texas, Wood says three LNG import sites "are going in my hometown potentially" and that has gives him a strong incentive to make sure the public is not in danger.
But in Fall River, Mass., Mayor Edward Lambert is not convinced that the government is committed to protecting the 5,000 people who live or work within a mile of a proposed LNG terminal in his town.
FERC officials acknowledged in a report that a tanker would have to maneuver up the Taunton River, which cuts through the heart of Fall River, and under four bridges, including one carrying an interstate highway. But the report also said risks from a possible terrorist attack on a tanker "can be managed." The commission has yet to rule on the project.
"It's downright foolish," Lambert said in a telephone interview. They want the town to bear "a risk no American citizen should be asked to bear when there are alternatives."
___
Marvelmeister: PKZ
I've already taken some profits in PKZ, but only because I'm overweight in the stock at 14% of my portfolio. But I'm planning to hold most of my remaining shares for the long term because I'm bullish on the price of oil, and believe that the Kazakhstan tax disputes will ultimately be settled for a relatively modest sum. If we assume oil prices average in the high $40's for the next 18 months, then the stock could be a double from the current price of $36.62. I don't think oil will stay that high, but I think an average of $40 is a reasonable assumption. That's still higher than the average price of oil in Q3 when the Company earned $2.27 per share, so EPS of $10+ in 2005 could easily happen. I'm conservatively hoping PKZ rises to $50+ by year end. Of course, an aggressive way to play it is with the stock options. In fact, I own a few of the May 35 calls, and many of my shares were bought by me in an exercise of the 2004 February 15 calls. The August 35 calls can now be bought for $5.60, so if the stock rises to $50 by the 8/19/05 expiration date, a stockholder would gain a solid 37% from today's price, but the option holder would gain a spectacular 168%. Quite a difference ! Of course, if the stock drops to $35, the stockholder loses a mere 5%, while the option holder loses 100%. Nonetheless, an interesting speculation for those interested in PKZ with a greater risk/reward profile than the stock offers. Other option strike prices and combinations can yield a multitude of risk/reward scenarios. Good luck with PKZ !
otcbargains: good insights on CGNW ... the key will be a good fiscal 2nd quarter. If they manage that, it will be much more convincing to investors that they've turned the corner. They should be reporting within 3 weeks, so we don't have long to wait ...
Bad start to the year. The first time ever that the Nasdaq has opened the new year with 3 consecutive weekly losses. And the first time since 1977 that the DOW and S&P500 have both started the year with 3 consecutive weekly losses. On average the Nasdaq gains 4% for the month of January. It could be a tough year ahead.
Marvelmeister2002: PKZ
PKZ remains my largest holding at over 14% of my portfolio. It looks very cheap at today's close of $36.51, having earned fully taxed and diluted EPS of $2.27 in Q3 and $4.89 through 9 months. They have an aggressive share buyback in progress which will serve to increase EPS going forward. Q4 should be very strong, given the higher oil prices versus Q3. If the price of oil stays around these levels, and they meet their goal of roughly a 10+% increase in production, EPS of $10+ seems likely in '05 for a forward PE in the 3's. This is not a big production growth story, but a great value play with EPS increases being helped by the share buyback program. They have substantial reserves and I look forward to seeing the updated numbers in their upcoming 40-F (10K) filing. The only caveat here is that operations are in Kazakhstan, a former Soviet republic, and there are some longstanding unresolved tax disputes with the government. These are footnoted in the 10K. Also, the Company must pay 'excess profits tax' if internal rates of return keep increasing. So that may put a drag on further EPS increases. However it trades at a deep discount to the sector, and is seeing increased major brokerage house analyst coverage. I think we're due for some PE expansion in 2005 to compliment significant gains in EPS.
hweb: NWAU
I rather think you're right about this being a scam. I still have a few shares, but made a nice profit on what I already sold. If it dips enough I may look to get back in for another trade. But the continued delays in SEC filings is par for the course ... the 'handwriting is on the wall' that they may keep deferring their filings indefinitely. Or when we finally do see the numbers, they'll look pretty bad. Nonetheless, they do know how to entice investors with their press releases, and it may continue to be a good trading stock until the truth is known ...
TMFZ +.20 to 3.30 another all time high. Volume is picking up nicely as well. This niche mortgage company grew explosively through 9 months. Trailing PE, fully taxed and diluted, is still only 6 even with 87% y/y revenue growth and 900% EPS growth through 9 months. EPS of .19 in Q3 and .41 through 9 months. I called management several weeks ago and they indicated that EPS typically gets stronger sequentially through the fiscal year. Could bode well for Q4, which was their strongest last year. I wouldn't expect mortgages applications to be strong in this season, but it could be their conservative accounting practices deferring income to year end. Also they'd like to move up to the AMEX or NasdaqSC this year. Trades at a deep discount to the sector. And while short term rates are moving higher, long term rates are actually down slightly from a year ago. Furthermore, their niche sector in sub-prime and Alt-A is less interest rate sensitive than the primary market. So I think fears of rising mortgage rates are overblown, particularly for this fast grower. Clearly TMFZ is gaining market share, and hopefully that trend will continue. One of my larger microcap holdings.
NWAU announcement was impressive, except a bit disappointing that we have to wait potentially 60 days for their SEC filings. I hope they don't keep pushing it out. Now late March versus original plan for late January. Oh well !
Too much strong wine with dinner is known to cause confusion about dilution. Perhaps that's what happened here. One solution is to dilute the strong wine with water, though it should be noted that most any wine connoisseur will grimace at thoughts of dilution.
MSGI, thanks for your comments, I appreciate it.
Reminder: Estimated taxes due on Tuesday. This is the final estimated tax payment for 2004. Avoid underpayment penalties that may accrue if you wait till April 15th.
Thanks for all the posts on FREETRADE. I'll definitely give it some consideration.
bigspike, does that mean that you tell BROWN where to route your order ? Is it efficient ? Do they charge extra ? I read something about potential extra charges if you want to route an order outside of their 'preferred' market makers.
MSGI, are those technicals really anything more than momentum indicators ? Trying to project the past into the future ? Won't they change quickly if the stocks begin a downtrend ? What's you past experience of success with this website's technical analysis and forecasting ? Does it agree with other methods of technical analysis ? I popped in a few of my favorites, and got a perfect 100% buy recommendation on two of them ... 'STV' and 'FCFC'. I'm happy to see that and hope they're right. What are your thoughts on the technical indicators for these two stocks ?
FREETRADE sounds impressive, but how do they make any money with those rock bottom commission rates ? I'm always a bit suspicious of freebies. Is there any other broker with comparible rates ? What do you do if you're travelling and need to make a trade by phone ? Why can't I have margin accounts at both Freetrade and Ameritrade ? Is order routing and execution as quick and efficient at Freetrade as Ameritrade ? I once had an account at BROWN for a trial ... but I closed it after just 2 weeks. Why ? Order routing was selective and therefore unacceptable. Bid/ask spreads were often significantly wider on Nasdaq quotes at BROWN compared with Ameritrade or Waterhouse. I could save $5 on commission, and lose $100 by paying $11.34 per share rather than $11.24 on a 1000 share order. Quick execution and best market price are of primary importance to me ... a few bucks on commissions takes the back seat. If Freetrade really gets you the equivilant speed of execution and best market price, then it's a great deal for those who don't need extra services. Are you getting timestamps to the second for your executions ? It may not matter if they're limit orders, but sometimes on a thin spread market orders are important and useful. Always beware of 'freebies' ... sometimes they aren't ! BROWN sure wasn't.
It seems to me that the medium term 15 day weather forecast has been more influential. Recently oil prices declined because of a warm snap in much of the US. Then in the last few days, warnings of the impending cold wave caused prices to rise sharply. Perhaps in 2 more weeks the cold wave will come to an end and oil prices will again retreat. It seems to be a condition of extreme myopia. After all, winter officially arrived over 3 weeks ago, and the long term 90 day winter forecast has been out for several weeks already.
ifathom, I hope you're right. Friday has given me some confidence and we're due for some follow-through.
Good to see a rally in the market today. Typically the Friday before a long weekend is weak, so today's strength may be even more significant. Hopefully it marks the beginning of a short term trend reversal, with a lot of new January cash to be put to use by money managers starting on Tuesday !
Bobwins, long range weather forecasts, such as 90 day forecasts, are very general by nature, and typically accurate only about 55% of the time according to what I've read. Part of that accuracy stems from the accuracy in predicting the first 10 days of the period. The science of long range weather forecasting has a long way to go, and maybe the long term weather really does have a significant random component that truely puts forecasting it out of reach. But keeping your eye on the 2 week forecast can potentially be beneficial in beating the 'street' to the sudden ups and downs of oil and gas prices, imho. The coming cold snap had been in the 2 week forecast before oil prices made their latest move up.
shmolton: MFLX
I was fortunate enough to buy MFLX in 7's when it mysteriously spiked down last August not long after their IPO. I sold my shares in the 14's just 3 months later. Subsequently it moved into the low 20's before falling back. I'd consider getting back in if it dips a bit further. A solid balance sheet and a PE of 12 based on analyst 2005 estimates. But heavily dependent on Motorola for 80% of their business. I don't think 2005 growth will be anything like 2004, but with the low PE it may not matter. EMS stocks like FLEX, JBL, SANM and SLR command higher PE's with less growth. SGMA is another interesting smallcap in the sector, with a rock solid balance sheet and production in their new China factory starting a steady rampup.
Rainman, interesting post. I never would have guessed that Gabon has 7x the per capita GDP as Yemen. Go EGY !
NICH: That's the problem with clothing. It's a fickle, competitive business. Lots of ups and downs for companies like NICH. It looks like the stock will be heading south on Monday.
wade: SWTX is definitely a good value even with limited growth. I took some profits this morning but will buy back shares if there is further weakness. However the stock has rebounded nicely from the morning low of 1.30 and is now bid 1.41 on heavy volume. But at the very least, one can say that their presentation material lacks clarity, which is quite unfortunate because it leaves a lot of important figures up for various interpretations. And it also reflects poorly on management that they are not responding promptly to the resulting shareholder inquiries.
Bobwins, congratulations on TGA ! Judging by the volume it may be that institutions are accumulating more shares. Institutional ownership jumped sequentially from near 0 to 1M shares in the September quarter, and will likely continue its rise. Plus, in your case, the added benefit of the long term capital gains rate, the equivilant of roughly a 35% further gain versus being taxed at the normal rate ... if you ever decide to sell any shares !
abh3vt, ANII
Thanks for that excellent post. I'll be accumulating more shares on dips. Also, it should be footnoted, that ANII still has about $8M in operating loss carryforwards, so no taxes for at least 2 more years.
wade, that's an interesting article about copper prices, and with all those month-long smelter shutdowns scheduled in the 1st half, prices could go even higher. But the article does close with the remark .... 'Copper prices may fall in the second half of the year as supply catches up with demand'. That agrees with what a giant Australian copper company is forecasting.
wade: copper prices
I read that copper prices should remain firm in the first half of 2005, but that a lot of new supply will be coming online in the 2nd half, resulting in falling copper prices. Evidently there are plenty of old mothballed mines around the world, just like TGB's, that are being brought back into production. Just like steel prices, I think copper prices will eventually come back down. But for the short term, prices should remain firm, imho.
ANTP back in the 20's after the low 50's just 8 days ago. I knew reality would catchup with this momo flyer, but unfortunately no shares were available for shorting at the top. I finally got 100 shares to short in the 30's. If this weak market continues, plenty of other high flyers will be coming back to earth.
STV is the #1 percentage gainer on the AMEX. +.80 to 6.00 Today's announcement of new contracts, record backlog and optimistic comments from management are getting noticed.
shmolton: SWTX
I didn't see the presentation, but it definitely sounds like they're trying to lower expectations for both the top and bottom line. I took some profits today, but am still holding most of my shares. The weakness in the stock is no surprise. I think a lot of investors were hoping for a much more optimistic presentation from the Company.
STV further increases record backlog
In 2005, if margins remain reasonable, they should easily beat the previous annual record for EPS of .84 from 2003. Not bad for a stock trading at $5.40 on the AMEX. Management sounds very confident about the coming year and beyond. I picked up a few more shares this morning ...
HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 14, 2005--Sterling Construction Company, Inc. (AMEX: STV - News), ("Sterling" or the "Company"), today announced that it was the low bidder on two contracts with a combined value of approximately $17.7 million.
Both the two new contracts entail storm and sanitary systems work along with paving, and they will be undertaken in San Antonio's Bexar County and Houston's Brazoria County. Both projects are expected to commence in June '05 with completion earmarked for 18 months later.
Pat Manning, Sterling's Chairman, noted, "Although the year-end numbers are not yet finalized, it is clear that we ended 2004 with the largest backlog in our history. This favorable business trend is continuing into 2005 with the award of these two additional contracts. Furthermore, the pace of contracts being put out to bid in our key markets is on the rise which along with the multi-year nature of the contract awards represented in our backlog, gives us reason for confidence in a strong financial performance in 2005 and very likely, beyond."
abh3vt: ANII
Thanks for the details on the Q3 margins. If they can grow revenues 15-20% next year as you suggest, that would be quite impressive and should grow the bottom line even more. It was also good to hear that management is interested in moving to the AMEX or Nasdaq.
ANII 10K just filed - looks solid at first glance. Operating income of about 2.9M versus 1.9M in prior year (excludes discontinued ops, and tax benefit). Revenue up 38% y/y. Q4 rougly inline with Q3. EPS of about .51 excluding disc op and tax benefit. Trading at $4. Looks like a good buy if they can keep the growth going ....
RRainman9999, can you be a bit more articulate regarding your concerns about 'huge' debt ? IPII has no long term debt whatsoever. Accounts payable is a routine current liability for a building supplier, offset by large inventory assets. Tangible book value is about $0.60. ERS likewise has no long term debt, just current accounts payable offset by inventory and accounts receivable. TBV is roughly $1.80. There's no debt related risk in either of these two stocks. If you want to see huge debt, I would refer you to AHOM.