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I'll take it! Gold is looking great right now. Hopefully this momentum carries in to tomorrow. I'd love to get back to $0.40. I think $1300 gold would get us there.
Tex, I'd flip another 5% tomorrow. Lol. I mean, you seem like a team player and all, so if you keep selling your 5% while the rest of us longs hold our shares, we should keep getting 5-10% gains. I think your flipping might be driving the price higher. Thanks man!
Yeah, I find that a bit frustrating too. I don't know all the details on their options, but again, from my experience options for me would be worthless if I don't stick with the company for 3 years following the grant of options. If they are in the same boat, the options are worthless to them too...so their incentive would be to get the share price heading northward.
Zero & Volcane - It can be viewed as good or bad. Options are definitely an incentive for them to keep the stock price going higher. My experience with options has been that they can only be sold after a certain period (3 years in my case). So the incentive is a) to stay with the company and to help the company succeed, and b) to do what it takes to get the stock price to climb.
I like seeing insider activity because I see insiders as stronger hands. I'm not sure what their rules are for selling because each company is different, but assuming those shares are tied up for at least a year or longer bodes well for all shareholders imo.
Ton of insider activity yesterday in grants of options.
https://www.canadianinsider.com/company?menu_tickersearch=baa
Who's the punk that wants to keep us locked down at .31? Bastages...
I agree 100%. Their timing on a lot of PR's is terrible. Why with good news like this wouldn't you release pre-market? If it wasn't ready today, that's just fine...release tomorrow pre-market then. I think we'll see very little movement as a result of this, unless gold continues upward tomorrow.
Nothing to much has changed with BAA. 50M more shares since you were in a couple years ago. AISC are up in Q1 and Q2, mostly due to their 2nd mine (Namoya) going commercial, and lower production in H1 2016. Their H1 versus H2 guidance for '16 is weighted at 40%-60%, so their Q1 production numbers were in-line with their guidance.
Lots of institutions in BAA, and incredible book value compared to these other junior miners. Just unknown when they'll realize that potential with the assets they have. If you are swing trading or day trading, BAA isn't going to move much. Long term I believe it is still the best junior miner play out there. They are really just starting to produce gold and at the beginning of their mine-life, where as the last I recall (please verify for yourself) that GSS is halfway through it's mine-life and VGZ isn't even producing a commercial ounce yet.
The only real long-term questions with BAA are political and geographic issues with being in the DRC. Also, a ~$170M bond payment that is due in 3/2017. The one nice thing is that anytime they seem to need money they have the likes of Blackrock, Gramercy or Baiyin willing to lend it.
Great call on SGY. I missed the boat...got greedy hoping for a test of the 8dma, ran off to a meeting and I come back and it is over $1 already...
Now that is funny! Just made my weekend. Now on to next week, and hopefully some solid Q1 production numbers.
Go BAA!!!
I'm going to go with 42,500. The longer they wait to let us know, the more I prepare for it to be lower than I'd like it to be. Looking back at last years PR's, they were really quick to announce good Q's when it came to gold production...and then as they started flattening, or maybe even getting worse than what shareholders were hoping for, the PR's seemed to come a few days later.
A couple of other good notes are that the ask has still been incredibly thin, and these down days have not been on huge volume. I think we continue to get shares into strong hands.
Given what we know now, I expect we'll trade in the .23 - .32 range for Q1 and Q2. As long as Q1 mining results aren't terrible next week, I think we start moving back to that .27-.29 range. Again, Gold price, buyout news, or just news with great mining results, could push this higher. I'm just basing this off of gold in the $1200-$1300 window.
Hey Faz
I've been meaning to get back to you. It's the end of the quarter at work, so this week has been crazy busy. Plus the boys have been busy with sports, so my nights have been mostly consumed too.
I finally got a chance to read the cc transcript yesterday. Overall, I see progress being made and I'm still very comfortable with my holdings. I've been here for over 2 years, and still believe that this will see multi-dollar levels, although I don't think it will be this year unless the POG goes on an epic run and/or there is a buyout offer.
The most disappointing news was just the cost to produce at Namoya. I definitely expected it to be higher at Namoya than Twangiza, but not to the tune of 1000-1100. I'm also a little disappointed in their guidance. As some have suggested, maybe they are low-balling in an effort to blow numbers away by year-end. Even in Q4 when it was wet, Twangiza still produced 30k ounces, so I'm not sure if 35k ounces are now things of the past or what...it's just hard to think that the best has already come and gone, especially when that's our lowest cost mine.
I'm ready for Q1 numbers next week. Hopefully they'll continue to show the growth and promise. I am just slightly concerned that they could be disappointing, as the rainy season continues through Q1...so I have no idea how much (if at all) that has impacted them. In addition, they pointed to disruptions at Namoya as causing some problems in production, so I see lower ounces produced there, resulting in costs closer to that $1100 range.
ROTFLMAO...How soon Special K, the wise? How soon? You must be feeling so much pain that your numerous opportunities to short gold down to $985 have failed time and time again. Have you taken out a 2nd mortgage on your cardboard box to start playing the markets again?
Trade Well...And never, ever forget that when you were spewing $985 back in December I called $1250-$1300 in early 2016...Guess which one of us was right?
Go Gold!!! And Go BAA!!!
Hey fazlice...Unfortunately I wasn't able to listen to the cc today, and I haven't been able to read the transcript. Have briefly looked at a couple of posts that look like the cash cost is not good, but haven't read enough to know if that is all around, or just at Namoya.
It is a little sad to see gold having such a good day, and us sitting in the red, but this certainly isn't the first time it has happened, and I am sure it won't be the last. I just roll with the punches.
I hope your friends are able to start building their positions here. Also, I'll get back to you sometime after I get a chance to really dive into the conf call, and the items discussed.
BAA ER Out!!! News, news, news!!!
Yeah, GDXJ had a 10% stake...25,200,000 shares...I'll never forget the day AH's when they sold out and here is this huge block that was traded for ~.14/share. Part of me bets they are about sick that they sold so close to the all-time low...However, Banro was just a very small piece of what they own, so it was probably irrelevant to them. I do agree that I think eventually they would consider putting Banro back in their portfolio...I just don't know what Market Cap they need to be at for GDXJ to start buying again.
One thing that this rings a bell on though...I don't think I ever heard who bought those shares? Obviously it had to be arranged to not drop the price to sub-penny prices. Curious if you know, or ever remember hearing who picked those shares up?
I think it's huge news to potential buyers, and that makes it huge news to me as a long-term holder. Take Fazlice for example. I know people can write whatever on these boards, but he's made a couple of key comments in the past, which I have no reason to believe they aren't true.
First, he had ~4 friends that were all looking to get in for about 1 million shares each, but none were willing to bite until the delisting issue was addressed. That is 2-3 days worth of volume, and that's assuming they'd get their hands on every single share traded. If people haven't noticed, the ask has been incredibly thin in the past week. A couple of big smacks, and we are back to (and maybe over) .32 easy.
The second piece was that he had talked to another investor or adviser...he mentioned that once that guy looked up BAA and saw the identifier that BAA was failing to meet listing requirements it was a huge red flag to him. That tells me that some people look, see that and stop without wasting any additional time on DD. I mean, lets face it, there are millions of plays out there...if you were going to invest some money elsewhere and were just beginning to browse, would you spend time doing DD on a company like BAA, or would you do your DD on some other stocks that didn't have the listing requirement cloud over its head? Now that the flag has been removed, we might have a lot of retail traders jumping in to play a swing, or start building long term positions.
Week 1 - News today on listing compliance with the NYSE MKT.
Week 2 - Q4 and 2015 Year end ER, coming next week. ECD the week of 3/28.
Week 3 - Q1 2016 Production numbers. ECD the week of 4/4.
These 3 PR's will make up the 3 consecutive weeks of news from the company.
I sense your sarcasm, but I view this differently. Unless someone is following BAA, how quickly is the news going to get around? Now you've given a 3 day weekend for people to research and see this news. Just before (what could be) an excellent ER that should be released early next week.
BTW, Fidelity now shows 3/28 as the ER date, but it says unconfirmed.
I see this as the perfect storm...We will have news releases 3 consecutive weeks...And hopefully we'll see gold start to rebound too!
Faz - Time for your buddies to start buying brother!
Tell them to just smack the ask for me...LOL
Good news out from BAA!!!
BAA has regained compliance for staying listed on the NYSE MKT.
BOOM!!! We're staying listed baby...
Last year's Q4 and year end 2014 ER didn't come out until April 6th. As I recall, they delayed approximately 1 week. So I'd expect ER next week, based off that's when they planned to release last year.
I'd rather get it PM on Tuesday or Wednesday next week, than AH's today anyway. Who really cares that it might come out March 29th, instead of March 23rd? I know the longs don't care.
The sites are all wrong. I use Fidelity and I don't recall a single time it has been right. Why it says "confirmed", I have no idea. Maybe bigger companies are more predictable such that sites can guess those dates. Again, I could care less until I see something official from the company.
It's always good to lock profits, especially with that much riding in it.
I have this 2039 area as a key area of support to hold for the S&P. If this breaks down, then we should see 2020-2025 again pretty easy and with just a little support there...If that area doesn't hold, then back to 2000.
This market has to turn down sooner or later.
Not much buddy...Just been sitting patiently awaiting this week. The boys were on spring break last week, so we took a little extended weekend trip.
I think these next 2-3 weeks will be huge. I'm looking for 3 PR's...
This week: Q4 ER, and 2016 Guidance
Next week: PR regarding de-listing, and hopefully stating that BAA has now met listing standards.
Following week (April Week 1): Q1 2016 Production Numbers
Based off of the technicals in the chart, coupled with good news from these PR's, we should easily be on our way to .40's again. Also, if gold can continue to base here in the 1230-1250 range, and maybe start moving upwards to 1300 again...then look out!
Fidelity is showing AH's on Wednesday, 3/23. It says confirmed, but I've seen this be wrong in the past. I'd personally rather see it PM, but don't think it will matter.
Hey Matt, if you were going to buy one miner tomorrow, which one would it be? I know you've liked IAG in the past, but I think recently you did well with AUY. Looks like IAG has potential to yield a bigger percentage of gold starts heading back north.
Is anyone else's one-minute chart for today showing 106.4k shares that traded right at 4pm yesterday?
Not sure why it's showing it on today's chart...but maybe my format is messed up.
Would be crazy-bullish if that big block at .295 gets taken out here in power hour. Loving it! Go BAA!
Wow...that's a big block on the ask at .295...563k+ shares...
No, I don't really care about the 5 days delay. Don't talk to me about patience either son...I've been here plenty long.
AF, you are well diversified in miners. Maybe you can help some of us BAA longs understand why GS* is acting so much stronger...short of their Q4 ER recently being released.
I'm somewhat familiar with GS*, but have not been invested in a couple of years. I did some quick checking though, and it dumbfounds me that it can be trading ~.20 higher than BAA right now.
O/S is almost identical at 250M, although BAA is now technically at 302M. Assets vs Liabilities isn't even close. GS* is almost a net $0, where BAA has ~$500M more in Assets. BAA has ~$150M more in debt, but they also produce at a much cheaper AISC (to the tune of ~$600/oz vs. GS* AISC for the last year).
Gold production is nearly identical (I believe BAA has far more reserves though), guidance for 2016 should be near identical, both have potential new mines, so there are a ton of similarities.
Inst Ownership is much higher on BAA, and I'm wondering if this could maybe play into the price action and be holding BAA back, just because the shares aren't jumping from hand to hand of retailers.
Just wondering if you had any thoughts to share? I know you trade the charts, where Matt tends to really dive into the filings...I also know that Matt has never liked BAA...but I guess I never see him diving into any of the cheaper junior miners.
You know it buddy! I can stomach any of this. After a number of halts, good days, bad days, etc, I'm pretty much immune to any movement. Obviously, significant movement to the upside always makes me feel good.
What we are going through right now is great, in my opinion. We were on a hot streak. Yeah, we aren't at (or over .32), but we are steady in this .27-.285 range. I'll take that. Let's build the base here, and then continue the next leg up. Then rinse and repeat.
Quite honestly, I'm surprised that some flippers haven't tried getting back in here. .27-.32 is ~20% on the flip. I know not many .27's have gone off, but surely 50k shares could be accumulated there, sell those at .32 and you have $2,500 profit.
I'm not in the flipping business, and like you Faz, I'm planning on being plenty rich if this gets to the pps we all believe it can.
Go BAA!
Well that big block on the ask is gone...how do you like them apples? I like mine "golden".
Go BAA!
Lol. I'm still cracking up. Knew you'd be back, just wasn't sure when. Call me what you will, I was right and you were wrong. No other way to slice it. Go gold, and go BAA!
Hahahahaha. OMG, 985 man is back. Lol, lol, lol. You fool, I called 1250 to 1300 gold in December. Where you at now? Oh back to BAA. Lol. I seriously thought you might have died after you lost your arse on you 985 short. Welcome back "Special K".
Go BAA!!!
Losing our momo, which is too bad on a huge gold up day, and a solid PR day. Looks like the swing traders shares are starting to hit the ask. Hopefully somebody who sees the long term potential will swing in and swoop those up. Otherwise it looks like we'll be locked down.
BOOM!!! Go BAA!
This is the type of stuff we need to carry us to Q4 Earnings. Another PR similar to this, but addressing the potential (but unlikely) delisting would be huge. Obviously it would be great to hear something like "regained", but even a PR to say they have been granted an "extension" would go a long ways IMO.
BAA on a roll...even on the last few days that gold has pulled back. Up 6.7% today.