Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I appreciate that you are long RVNC but what you're saying makes no sense. Nobody here wants a buyout for anything less than $40. And more like $50. Some people might agree on the Foley comment but I do not. The market is certainly signaling to Foley skepticism of his plan but I think Foley will ultimately be proven correct.
What makes you say that? A buyout at a lower price is not good for RVNC shareholders.
You are just speculating. For all we know they sold shares to strengthen their negotiating position ahead of buyout discussions. You connecting it to poor product feedback is FUD. The text you shared is 5 months old and anecdotal. You might need a new lead injector. Other injectors have figured it out and posted here about it.
I'd argue your trader playbook is getting in the way of you now. Nothing changes sentiment like price. You know the story better than the market.
boraborak38 is a RVNC FUDster:
I've said it before and I'm saying it again now. This is exactly how FUD works. He sounds measured and possibly like a bull but then deceitfully inserts totally false information. Daxxify feedback has been excellent. Management did not sell shares because they heard negative feedback.
I agree. There is a lot of truth to what you said because most market participants are short-term focused. We are also not in a very constructive market for loss-making companies with uncertain time to cash flow breakeven. Many would call that an opportunity.
Long-term fundamentals-driven investors don't make decisions based on intraday price signals. You have to form your own opinion on what an asset is worth.
Jmkobers, obviously somebody has their thumb on this stock. No legit long would sell this news at this price.
Running the clinical trails is extremely expensive and it's very time consuming to go through the FDA application process.
If it closes down today then I guess approval was more than 100% priced in 😂
Lets see where it closes today, then we can calculate how much it was priced in already before today.
This was your best post that I've read so far and maybe swings me to the camp of believing your story. I do agree that adoption might be slower than bulls, including myself, had expected. But here's my problem with your conclusion. Your most experienced injector is perhaps not confident with injecting in the frontalis, but other injectors like Soma2022 have figured it out:
I'm holding for now. I'm already significantly overweight RVNC and short liquidity. My current average cost basis is around $12 so even at the current ridiculously low price I would be averaging up significantly. I have recently been adding exposure through call options, but post earnings I'm less certain of that approach as the time to rebound seems to have been extended considerably. If the underlying price does keep going lower I will probably load up on Jan 2025 calls assuming the spreads are reasonable.
I agree, I never expected to see it get this low again. Are you surprised the market surprised you? I'm not. The list of assets that have been mispriced in either direction is endless. Usually to a greater magnitude and for a longer duration than is warranted. But you have an advantage here because you know more about this story than the average investor. The question is what are you going to do about it?
I concur but it's not really surprising is it? To outside observers they see this as just another crappy company that's increasing expenses faster than revenue. ABBV is running FUD saying the product stinks. If we were still in ZIRP maybe none of this would matter but money markets are paying 5.25% and 10Y UST is north of 4%. Right now the only stocks anybody wants to own are a "sure things" which pretty much means NVDA, NVO, or LLY. Assuming we're at or close to the terminal rate the market dynamic should improve soon and ultimately RVNC has the best product by a wide margin which the market will realize eventually.
I don't understand what you're saying. I'm not talking about the stock price. I'm taking about how much a partner is willing to pay for EDP-235 obviously.
Good post, thank you. Very cogent and neutral. I don't find myself in disagreement with anything you said. I will add that a major obstacle to a partnership at this time may be price. It's wrong to assume, like certain unnamed people on this board, that the lack of a partnership means lack of discussions. Imo Jay knows the value of EDP-235 and he's not going to give it away for cheap. Covid assets are not in demand right now. Perhaps the market will be proven right and Covid assets will never be valuable again, but I'll take the opposite side of that bet and roll with Luly. He's been proven right before.
That explains a good bit. Why not just disclose that earlier? I knew you weren't an injector because otherwise you would have had instant answers on the protocol. There's nothing wrong with not being an injector as long as you're forthcoming about it. How many injectors in your practice have injected Daxxify?
I agree! Until you are able to reply with the outline of your procedure the way soma2022 did, your posts will continue to be highly suspicious. I find it suspicious that you need time to unpack it. Sounds like perhaps you're not really who you claim to be. If you know this space the way you claim you should be able to reply immediately.
This is an amazing post thank you so much!
I am hardly accusing everyone. I love to hear the cogent bear case to stocks I'm long, or the bull case to stocks I'm short. However, the FUD machine is now in full effect for RVNC and there are people here who appear to have highly suspect motives. My handle may be new but I've been lurking on this board for years. If you can't logically defend your points and you're inexorably negative and haven't explicitly disclosed that you're short than it is reasonable for me to suspect you of spreading FUD. I think on boraborak38 specifically there appears to be consensus that his posts are suspect.
Except the reports of "a few" patients getting headaches out of 13 suggest a problem with their skill or technique. If a few is at least 3 then that's at least a 23% rate of headaches, 4x the rate observed in the clinical data!
Yes, it's hard to know. If you were an ABBV shill you obviously wouldn't come out and admit it.
The fact remains that your results are totally out-of-wack with what was seen in the clinical trial or what I've seen from other providers on social media.
There are only three logical explanations for that deviation: 1) your sample size of 13 is too small, 2) you are not a skilled injector, or perhaps just do not understand how to properly inject Daxxify, or 3) you are an ABBV shill.
Which answer do you think makes the most sense?
They already showed statistically significant benefit on symptoms in P2 Jake. Regulators are going to approve the next Covid antiviral on clinical benchmarks, not virology. Are you paying attention? Your FUD will not be welcome here much longer.
Yes, boraborak38 is most likely an ABBV shill based on their most recent posts. Dubious that such an incompetent injector could stay in business.
And let that be a wake up call to everybody here. The FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) machine is now running in full force against RVNC. That is new in the last 6-9 months. Before Daxxify was on the market there was no need to run FUD.
Thank you for sharing your experience. I'm sorry to say that it sounds like you and your practice are just not very talented injectors. Your experience is not at all typical from what I've seen on social media. Alternatively perhaps you are here to spread FUD?
Great post, thank you! Distinction should be made between CD approval and CD sales being priced in. Whether or not a future event is priced in depends on the probability the market assigns to that event happening. Fully priced in would be 100% probability. My guess is the market is pricing in a 70% chance of approval for CD. Thus, if they don't get approval the stock will drop considerably, but if they do get approval I expect the price to increase but only modestly. Where I am in complete agreement with you is that the market is not pricing in the CD sales appropriately yet.
Wow! I had previously missed this. I wonder if PFE is a JPM client and this is similar to what MS is doing for ABBV? Sell-side analysis is a dirty business. It's easy to spread FUD by sounding knowledge but then saying things that are false (example: Jake).
Tbh I hope they are shilling because that would be more excusable than pure ignorance here. They also said EDP-235 launch was a 2027 event. ENTA said they have cash runway to 2027 which clearly shortcircuited this "analyst's" brain.
Maybe Jake is that analyst!
Sounds like the one month patient either didn't get dosed properly or perhaps doesn't respond well to any tox, or is just an anomaly. Real world results are following what was seen in the trials across a larger sample size than what you've seen personally.
I think RVNC's strategy is actually quite smart and also injectors who are getting on board early with Daxxify are smart because they'll soon be stealing patients and revenue from those who don't!
Incredible! Thank you for sharing. It's hilarious that they said 6 months then realized it was actually 8. Such a timely example as it validates what Mark said on the call with regards to real world experience following with what was observed in the clinicals trials. 6 month median means for every disappointed patient who only got 4 months there's a patient like this who got 8. It has only just now been long enough for the first of these reports to start streaming in. As these propagate across social media it's only a matter of time before injectors who have negative attitude towards Daxi start losing business!
Also wowster is new here but I can vouch for him he's been a long time bull on RVNC over on Stocktwits. Welcome!
Full disclosure, are you long RVNC? What about any other tox manufacturers?
If you think that's bad you should read their "research" on TSLA. That's exactly why I'm saying that I put absolutely zero value in anything Morgan Stanley sell-side analysts say. They have shown they are willing to get dirty to support their clients. Abbvie must be one of their clients.
Thank you! I really appreciate the share. Unfortunately MS is the one sell-side analyst I'm not interested in. They are clearly shilling for ABBV. They were the ones who asked the softball question about Daxi on ABBV's call. Also, a bit OT, but if you follow TSLA at all you know that Morgan Stanley's sell-side coverage is a bit misleading to say the least!
You were wrong about the raise, and so was I by extension for agreeing with you. The shares they sold may have been 3-5% of the total volume during the period so not totally insignificant especially since so much market action is driven by trend-following CTA's. Still, there's no denying that the main reason for the sell-off was weaker than anticipated sales and especially expenses increasing faster than sales.
But I think you're being too glum about the overall outlook. You may have been too optimistic about the speed, as was I, but that doesn't mean the launch is going terribly and it definitely does not mean that there is not enthusiasm for the product. As Mark said on the call, the real world experience is matching the clinical trial data. This is not a huge surprise since the trial had a large sample size.
Daxi is legit. It has exceeded my expectations on patient results. Don't forget this aesthetics stuff is a nasty business. Every player is out for their own bottom line and there are a lot of entities out to spread FUD about RVNC, not least of all ABBV a well known FUD behemoth.