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And whatever else they might feel like adjusting away in 2025 to flatter the numbers. I think there's still a decent chance for GAAP profitability in 2025 with the new competitive pricing IF they have truly learned their lesson about profligate spending.
Of course there are also macro uncertainties in the equity market and to the consumer. If we get more clarity (to the upside) on that in the next 6 months I expect stocks like RVNC to trade at higher multiples.
He was, and it was a terrible waste of money. We'd certainly love to have it back now. However, the decision to cut their losses now is a positive development for the stock today and removes an area of concern that I had regarding future money sunk on that product.
It was me—although several other people have also shared reactions from TikTok and Instagram. The two male practitioners in today's panel have been shared here before and post frequently on social media about Daxxify.
RVNC has been a terrible stock to buy and hold. For those who are a bit more active with their trading it has actually been very rewarding. This macro market is extremely challenged for stocks like RVNC. They just told you they won't even have positive "adjusted" (and we don't even know what the adjustments will be) EBITDA for 18+ months. You can earn 5.25% risk-free in a money market fund right now. Fund managers—and really most investors—think in quarters not years.
I'm very disappointed that Mark didn't have more awareness to take responsibility for the massive destruction in shareholder value. The board may need to make a change.
Ultimately however, Daxxify is an incredible product that is actually exceeding expectations despite the very loud FUD claiming otherwise. The reactions on social media are important. Remember Dr. Blackledge said today he has never seen attacks on an aesthetics company like the ones against RVNC from ABBV and their army of FUDsters. That's because they know that Daxxify is the superior product and a huge threat to their business.
Thank you so much! Time has proven you to be one of the most valuable resources on this board.
Daxxify is clearly the superior product, by a significant margin. I've always been of the mindset that in the worst case they could match pricing with Botox. The 2-year delay due to the FDA inspection Covid backlog and then subsequent CRL caused RVNC to miss the party. In 2023 they're facing an entirely different equity market and consumer. This new plan seems solid though based on your commentary so a quick pivot was perhaps exactly what was needed – especially as the macro economic picture remains highly uncertain.
I don't think it's about ego necessarily. The plan would have probably worked well in 2021 and 2022. But now in 2023 the consumer is already considerably stretched and not interesting in spending up for the premium product. There's still so much uncertainty about the path of the economy and the consumer that it is perhaps too risky now to try and wait it out and so they've decided to make a quick pivot. I have mixed feelings about that decision but the reality is I don't want them to risk the company on a premium pricing strategy in front of what could be a deeper recession.
Unfortunately I agree with you. I obviously don't have all the facts but I like Dustin. If there was a mistake it was on Mark but he's obviously not going to be the fall guy. I'm also not convinced that a major pivot was necessary yet just because the stock is down, but as you said, somebody has to pay for erasing $2B in value.
Excellent post, thank you!
You are 100% a FUDster and it's working. This is a difficult environment for both stocks and the consumer. Daxxify is clearly the better product but now RVNC management is shitting their pants. For long term investors with a low cost basis most of this is just noise but sometimes noise can have real impacts. We'll have to wait for an official update from the company anyway because anything you say is suspect at best.
If Jake was actually short ENTA he would know today's move was technical and not fundamental.
Great post. 99.9% agree! The market is also signaling disappointment. It's an unavoidable reality but what the market is signaling now will be irrelevant as long as Foley is ultimately correct.
I don't pretend to know where the stock is going in the short run. The macro market setup is horrible. Most daily movement is driven by algos and degen short-focused fund managers trying to justify their one and twenty fee this quarter. RVNC could go back to $10 in the short term I honestly would not be surprised now given the trends. I hope it doesn't but if it does that's an opportunity. Use your trader skills to identify short term trends and then make long term decisions. As an asset gets more mispriced I adjust my positioning accordingly. I also don't pretend to know when a major positive catalyst could be announced. This stock could double from here in a single session on a partnership announcement for therapeutic. I'd hate to miss that.
I agree with you that the years of burn and now the slow sales ramp looks bad. This market hates it. Imo it's a new company since Foley took over and especially a new company since they had an actual product to sell. Foley hasn't been given sufficient time to validate the strategy and everybody is projecting past trends into the future. We have seen first hand recently from injector posts on this very forum that injector training for Daxxify is crucial and patient outcomes depend on it. Compare Soma2022's outcomes to borabora38's. Yes it will be more costly and time consuming to penetrate the market than some including me hoped but I think you're being far too pessimistic on this point.
I appreciate that you are long RVNC but what you're saying makes no sense. Nobody here wants a buyout for anything less than $40. And more like $50. Some people might agree on the Foley comment but I do not. The market is certainly signaling to Foley skepticism of his plan but I think Foley will ultimately be proven correct.
What makes you say that? A buyout at a lower price is not good for RVNC shareholders.
You are just speculating. For all we know they sold shares to strengthen their negotiating position ahead of buyout discussions. You connecting it to poor product feedback is FUD. The text you shared is 5 months old and anecdotal. You might need a new lead injector. Other injectors have figured it out and posted here about it.
I'd argue your trader playbook is getting in the way of you now. Nothing changes sentiment like price. You know the story better than the market.
boraborak38 is a RVNC FUDster:
I've said it before and I'm saying it again now. This is exactly how FUD works. He sounds measured and possibly like a bull but then deceitfully inserts totally false information. Daxxify feedback has been excellent. Management did not sell shares because they heard negative feedback.
I agree. There is a lot of truth to what you said because most market participants are short-term focused. We are also not in a very constructive market for loss-making companies with uncertain time to cash flow breakeven. Many would call that an opportunity.
Long-term fundamentals-driven investors don't make decisions based on intraday price signals. You have to form your own opinion on what an asset is worth.
Jmkobers, obviously somebody has their thumb on this stock. No legit long would sell this news at this price.
Running the clinical trails is extremely expensive and it's very time consuming to go through the FDA application process.
If it closes down today then I guess approval was more than 100% priced in 😂
Lets see where it closes today, then we can calculate how much it was priced in already before today.
This was your best post that I've read so far and maybe swings me to the camp of believing your story. I do agree that adoption might be slower than bulls, including myself, had expected. But here's my problem with your conclusion. Your most experienced injector is perhaps not confident with injecting in the frontalis, but other injectors like Soma2022 have figured it out:
I'm holding for now. I'm already significantly overweight RVNC and short liquidity. My current average cost basis is around $12 so even at the current ridiculously low price I would be averaging up significantly. I have recently been adding exposure through call options, but post earnings I'm less certain of that approach as the time to rebound seems to have been extended considerably. If the underlying price does keep going lower I will probably load up on Jan 2025 calls assuming the spreads are reasonable.
I agree, I never expected to see it get this low again. Are you surprised the market surprised you? I'm not. The list of assets that have been mispriced in either direction is endless. Usually to a greater magnitude and for a longer duration than is warranted. But you have an advantage here because you know more about this story than the average investor. The question is what are you going to do about it?
I concur but it's not really surprising is it? To outside observers they see this as just another crappy company that's increasing expenses faster than revenue. ABBV is running FUD saying the product stinks. If we were still in ZIRP maybe none of this would matter but money markets are paying 5.25% and 10Y UST is north of 4%. Right now the only stocks anybody wants to own are a "sure things" which pretty much means NVDA, NVO, or LLY. Assuming we're at or close to the terminal rate the market dynamic should improve soon and ultimately RVNC has the best product by a wide margin which the market will realize eventually.
I don't understand what you're saying. I'm not talking about the stock price. I'm taking about how much a partner is willing to pay for EDP-235 obviously.
Good post, thank you. Very cogent and neutral. I don't find myself in disagreement with anything you said. I will add that a major obstacle to a partnership at this time may be price. It's wrong to assume, like certain unnamed people on this board, that the lack of a partnership means lack of discussions. Imo Jay knows the value of EDP-235 and he's not going to give it away for cheap. Covid assets are not in demand right now. Perhaps the market will be proven right and Covid assets will never be valuable again, but I'll take the opposite side of that bet and roll with Luly. He's been proven right before.
That explains a good bit. Why not just disclose that earlier? I knew you weren't an injector because otherwise you would have had instant answers on the protocol. There's nothing wrong with not being an injector as long as you're forthcoming about it. How many injectors in your practice have injected Daxxify?
I agree! Until you are able to reply with the outline of your procedure the way soma2022 did, your posts will continue to be highly suspicious. I find it suspicious that you need time to unpack it. Sounds like perhaps you're not really who you claim to be. If you know this space the way you claim you should be able to reply immediately.
This is an amazing post thank you so much!
I am hardly accusing everyone. I love to hear the cogent bear case to stocks I'm long, or the bull case to stocks I'm short. However, the FUD machine is now in full effect for RVNC and there are people here who appear to have highly suspect motives. My handle may be new but I've been lurking on this board for years. If you can't logically defend your points and you're inexorably negative and haven't explicitly disclosed that you're short than it is reasonable for me to suspect you of spreading FUD. I think on boraborak38 specifically there appears to be consensus that his posts are suspect.
Except the reports of "a few" patients getting headaches out of 13 suggest a problem with their skill or technique. If a few is at least 3 then that's at least a 23% rate of headaches, 4x the rate observed in the clinical data!
Yes, it's hard to know. If you were an ABBV shill you obviously wouldn't come out and admit it.
The fact remains that your results are totally out-of-wack with what was seen in the clinical trial or what I've seen from other providers on social media.
There are only three logical explanations for that deviation: 1) your sample size of 13 is too small, 2) you are not a skilled injector, or perhaps just do not understand how to properly inject Daxxify, or 3) you are an ABBV shill.
Which answer do you think makes the most sense?
They already showed statistically significant benefit on symptoms in P2 Jake. Regulators are going to approve the next Covid antiviral on clinical benchmarks, not virology. Are you paying attention? Your FUD will not be welcome here much longer.