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Almost all of Ted's complaints about Lightwave's management hinges on purposeful deception hiding lack of progress. He has an inventory of current uncertainties we have as shareholders on specifics of technology advancements with partners that he uses as "evidence" of failures. He bases this on a premise that Dr. Lebby doesn't give us this information when he is obligated to do so. He ignores the reality of Non-Disclosure Agreements which are a fixture in partnering in the technology industry and prevents disclosures unless all partners agree to do so. He discounts the fact that competition will prevent disclosure of progress in development until a finished product is available. Partners who compete with other tech companies in the same space are more at risk than Lightwave as their success materially is more significantly impacted by competitors catching up as they have more capital outlay and lower margins than LWLG will have. Lightwave's risks are mitigated by a capital light structure and the future spread with widespread partnering
Another factor for silence on specifics by Lightwave and partners as to what is coming next in the industry is other solutions are being developed by companies to run faster at lower power. Companies say it is coming but when is up in the air. Linear drive optics is being developed as well as co-packaged optics in an effort to reduce power and reduce cost by eliminating the DSP. The industry overall is in a major transitioin and companies are not giving blow by blow information on their progress in development of new technologies. This IS a very sensitive time as companies are readying their products for sale sometime in 2024 and into 2025. Lightwave's polymers would be able to be added to those solutions but don't expect to hear about the specifics until a partner is ready.
Ted's focus on the development struggles the company had before 2017 to prove they are not competent is downright silly as he reaches for his negativity. Doing so, only proves he is on a mission to try and destroy the credibility of the company especially returning to this set of facts to prove the company can't cut it today (ignoring all the successes they have reported over the last couple years).
It gets tiresome listening to Ted's purposeful distortions as he uses "all or none thinking" (if things aren't perfect they are a failure), over generalizing.(if one thing hasn't happened before it will never happen) and mental filtering (all things may be going well but instead he focuses on one negative to focus attention on and ignores the rest). He is a good illusionist (only if you are gullible) as he uses words to elevate his facts from nothing (we haven't heard Lebby say this yet) to a conspiracy. It is good reading only if you enjoy conspiracies and hope the price of the stock goes down.
In the end, he cannot control the price of the stock no matter how hard he tries. He is too insignificant in the market, as am I, to affect that. It is up to the company.
yorky, thank you posting this article from DigiTimes. It was a very interesting read.
The CTO of Xanadu, Zachary Vernon, appears to make a very strong case for silicon photonics to make quantum computing to become a reality. He speaks to the strengths of this platform versus other competing solutions being studied. Xanadu has worked with with Amazon Web Services and Nvidia in development of its software library for programming quantum computers.
He states "we need to achieve fault tolerance and error correction, and we think photonics will be the first to get there and the fastest to scale," the CTO explained, emphasizing that scaling and performance are both very important to achieve fault tolerance. "You need lots of qubits to encode error correction, but you also need high performance qubits."
and goes on to say "photonics enables one to network different chips with optical fiber in various patterns, obtaining better connectivity than one would usually be able to access in a superconducting approach. As a result of the better connectivity, Vernon indicated, one can access better codes, especially quantum low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes."
Photonics allows better communication between chips in the supercomputer as photonics is more reliable in directing optical fibers to direct qubits wherever you want. Reliabilty really matters.
two major advantages offered by silicon photonics: scalability and quantum computing at room temperature. "All of our actual computation happens on room-temperature devices."
So Low power is a necessity. LWLG leads the way there.
He sees quantum computing not replacing data centers but augmenting them.
He projects Xanadu alone would need hundreds of thousands of 300mm silicon photonic wafers per year and compares it to data center needs. He voices a hope that volume would be available to move the industry forward. Without calling out LWLG specifically it seems to be a very nice advertsement.
Google and IBM have projected coming out with a quantum comuter as early as a 2029-2030 time frame. I know, that is not going to be material financially for several years. What does matter is Vernon is projecting the future continued major need for silicon photonics in very high volume, that will be fast and low power and can be manufactured with traditional CMOS systems.
This is a clear endorsement of Lightwave's technology even for future advanced systems as it is so flexible and can be additive to other solutions using traditional manufacturing methods. It starts in 2024 in the data centers.
Short sellers would like the price as low as possible before beginning to cover. It is tax harvesting season so they would like anxious shareholders to sell to preserve profits or minimize losses. I have been adding over the past several weeks as the price is low and expectations for 2024 is high.
Vein, try not looking at the market everyday.
Exercise is a good tension reducer.
Go have a couple beers and focus on something nice, like Thanksgiving.
If you have the urge to post a WOE IS ME post, yell into a pillow instead.
Consider a stop loss GTC order for a portion of your portfolio if you worry about lost gains.
Put negative posters on ignore so it doesn't raise your anxiety.
Repeat after me, Proto, X, KCC and Jeunke know best so all is OK. Say it 3 times when you worry.
Definitely review the last couple of Dr. Lebby presentations especially 2023 ASM and conferences in the last few months. Really listen. and try to put things together.
As you can see I was responding to Proto's post. Other than that I cannot quote a direct source to "30" foundries having expressed interest in Lightwave's polymers. It has been 2 years since the 7 number was discussed. Since then, alot has happened. Lightwave has made several adjustments to manufacturing. They have reported great progress at numerous conferences with wafers coming back from foundries at high volume and high quality. Poling is no longer an issue, ALD has been added, aluminum replaces gold in electrodes, perkinamine 5 shows improved results, perkinamine 6 is on deck, stability is testing out great and they have their first supply contract. Third party confirmation of world record results. The demand for faster and lower power is greater with AI and other higher data applications. All this leads to problems solved and better to get on board before you get left behind. As a result, I think there are many other foundries interested in Lightwave's polymers and the number in the pipeline is alot more than a few. Things don't move quickly in this industry much to the chagrin of many shareholders here. If you cannot see things will start to roll in 2024 you have not been keeping up.
Why in the world would 30 foundries be interested in working with LWLG knowing many have been doing so for a couple years and no products out yet?
Maybe they know that they need to produce wafers that will yield chips that will be in demand in the coming upgrade cycle being juiced by the rollout of AI.
Maybe in the know customers have asked about using Lightwave's polymers in their products.
Foundries likely know that everything needs to run faster, smaller and with less power or those products will be also rans.
They likely know that current available materials either have stability issues, power consumption needs, are not conductive enough,or are very expensive and not likely to go into widespread use.
They absolutely know that ordering new wafer manufacturing equipment is very, very expensive and the best case is to find a material that allows them to manufacture desirable wafers on current equipoment. They likely have heard that polymers are being talked as an additive solution to current equipment so no new equipment is required..
They have not thought of using polymers as they have not been stable like forever but LWLG is reporting impressive stability with wafers produced as part of a PDK.
They have certainly followed major conferences on optical solutions and who is leading the industry with solutions for foundries and customers who are looking for faster, smaller chips that run on real low power.
All it takes is a phone call to the CEO of LWLG to ask questions to corroborate what they heard at conferences is acurate and they have plans to bring out product in 2024.
OOPs, competitors working with LWLG are likely ahead of the game. Maybe they need to get into the queue to see what lightwave Logic could do for them and their niche.
Some people say it doesn't add up that upwards of 30 foundries could be interested in working with LWLG after all the public has not heard about it. Semiconductor manufacturing is a brutally competitive area and you either lead the pack or you may flounder. Is it possible those foundries have some incentives to explore a working relationship with Lighwave Logic. Is it more than possible they don't want to publicize their interest. You be the judge.
" 5 Telltale Signs a Tech Startup is on Track to Become a Billion Dollar Enterprise".
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/5-telltale-signs-tech-startup-track-becoming-ryan-westwood/[url][/url][tag]insert-text-here[/tag]
5 Signs from the article:
1)Flawlessly executing on a focused vison and strategy: The ability starts with a top notch CEO and a very strong board of directors. Having this, the CEO can bring in superior talent to help the company develop a technology that can win its market.
Lightwave has that with a CEO who is highly respected by by peers, possible future customers and government oversight committees. Dr. Lebby layed down a path to develop a unique material that was additive to current silicon photonics, methodically registering patents along the way to build a strong moat that would stand up to challenges. He has brought in respected and previously successful scientists and financial experts to get ready to lauch into the market. Maintaning a cost structure that has left the company debt free as they are getting ready to launch.
2)Introducing a compelling product to an undersaturated market: "To rise above the crowd, you have to offer a unique, compelling value proposition to your customers". The value proposition LWLG offers is the only commercially viable polymer that is added to a wide variety of materials to enhance speed, save power and offer a small footprint that allows greatly enhanced flexibility in designs to fit customers needs. These characteristics set the company apart from competitors who cannot match the complete set of benefits the company can offer.
3)Create a product that is endlessly and effortlessley scalable: In other words being able to bring in next generation advancements without having to spend a great deal of money on R&D or new, costly manufacturing equipment. Lightwave is set up nicely here as they are able to develop new versions of perkinamine (currently perkinamine 6) and expand on improving specifications. Add to that working with foundry partners keeps the capital outlay to a minimum. Customers want to see scalability with a product they commit to as they will look ahead to future needs therfore knowing Lightwave will still be there to fill those needs. The small footprint allows the Lightwave's modulators to fit easily in various devices and allows for introduction into both pluggable and co-packaged devices .Co-packeged options are being investigated by many companies for future products.
4)Creating a carefully crafted market plan: Here Lightwave created a value proposition with a product that meets the needs of their chosen market, found a cost effective way to produce product along with partners, and making it simple and compelling as a value propositon. They chose their inital product to enter a small part of the market (transceivers for data centers) with intent to ramp into volumes to take over a large part of that market. They plan to bring out other products with partners leading the designs, licensing with Lightwave for material supply. By widespread partnering they hope to become a market standard in silicon photonics. Planning should involve time of entry into the market; it couldn't be better as AI is entering a rapid growth phase increasing the need for Lightwave's polymers..
5)Moving in perfect harmony with your investors: Let's face it, it sounds like some investors aren't quite feeling that harmony, yet they still are here(fear of missing out?). Mostly, the investor base overall has been patient, enthusiastic and incredibably loyal. Such loyalty has persited for 20 years as the company worked on development and staying financially afloat. Early investors have been financially rewarded with a higher share price.
LWLG is not a start-up in the same sense as a private company growing but it fits the model non the less. I highlighted how LWLG fits these important characteristics but there is more to keep in mind like the rapid ramp of hires and increase of laboratory space that should tell an investor the CEO and the Board of Directors see that the company is ready to go active with their marketing plan.
I see the link doesn't work; the article can be searched for.
Regarding China and 1.2 T internet capability.
Nothing like a good old internet space race with China for the lead in AI. Lightwave will be up for the task.
AI and the anticipated upgrades to hardware and software does bode well for tech companies in 2024. The end of the Federal Reserve's hiking of interest rates and the beginning of lowering them as inflation continues to go down, will be another tailwind that will likely begin at the same time. The rapid rise in interest rates have had a tremendous downward pressure on small cap stocks especially those in the growth sector. You can pick almost any small cap growth stock. check the short count, and you will see it considerably higher compared to 18 months ago. A certain percentage of shorting LWLG is likely machine driven indiscriminate selling based on Lightwave's lack of revenues and lack of clear signs of that changing unless you take a deep dive into the company.
Shorts covering if there starts to be lowering of interest rates, will be significant across the board with small cap growth stocks. Imagine if that coincides with news with clarity on revenues beginning for LWLG and partnerships. It will be very hard for the short sellers to run through a very small door to exit their positions as the share price rises.
Proto may get overly enthusiastic but he knows his stuff and I like that he posts a lot. If you were a REAL Lurker, you would not post as much as you do.
Ted is an accomplished Basher who can find company words to expand on negatively to introduce a worrisome interpretation. He says he is not a paid Basher; I don't believe that.
Regarding who pays what, the foundry partner or Lightwave:
The most important cost is the foundry down time, not running chips for sale as they go through repeated trial runs developing the PDK after each change or adjustment and then for samples and capability for high volume manufacturing. Lightwave is not paying for that, that is a cost for the foundry. Lightwave offers consultation guidance on PDK adjustments introducing the polymer and provides the polymer. They might share the cost of materials in manufacture for testing. Lightwave coiuld not afford the cost of foundry down time with numerous foundries.
Nvidia may be a future acquirer. They certainly have the money to do so. They would like to control the development of artifical intelligence and advanced computing. The difficulty is whether such an aquisition in the end would be anti-competitive, allowing one chip company to control access to what could be a very important material for many semiconductor companies to advance their product lines. Foundry partners have needed close engagement with Lightwave to learn how to integrate perkinamine into their PDKs. Later to the game foundries would need such help. Would they want to bare their closely guarded secrets to a possible competitor? Would Nvidia want to share perkinamine with many companies as it could become a distraction for them if it meant getting involved with helping with their development? As largely as design company can they help other companies with manufacturing issues with polymers?
If Nvidia was going to try an acquire LWLG in would be easier sooner than later before LIghtwave's polymers were taken up by many companies. That would not make current shareholders happy if the price was not high enough.
I think a more neutral aquirer would be AMAT as they know manufacturing techniques more than Nvidia They could work with all semiconductor companies seeking to use polymers so no anti-competitve issues.
I am not hoping for an aquisition in the near future but if it happens it would have to be a real good offer. More than one offer would likely happen and who knows, the FTC could get involved if it sees an acquition as anti-competitive. It is all up in the air until we see deals and products come out.
What LWLG can learn from AMD's and Global Foundries History
Mid to late 2000s- AMD Struggles to keep up with Intel, falling behind in manufacturing and losing money
2009 AMD decides to spin off their manufacturing arm to what became Global Foundries. AMD tightly bound by contract to Global Foundries for all its chips. AMD owns part of Global Foundries.The contract is on "cost plus model" based on cost of materials plus a percentage markup. AMD losing money asit has to pay for wafers that are duds.
2009-2010 AMD and Global Foundries losing money as they cannot keep up with Intel in microprocessors. They are behind in tech and yields.
2011AMD amends agreement with GF and only pays for "good die meaning AMD only pays for the good wafers; GF must improve yields.
2012 AMD divests entire stake in Global Foundries. GF now fully independent.
2014 Lisa Su becomes CEO of AMD and seeks increased quality of chips adding TSMC as second source back up for manufacture. GF partners with Samsung to try and keep pace with TSMC who leads in manufacturing leading edge chips. GF still doing most of AMDs chips.
2016 AMD amends agreement with GF giving GF all 7nm chip business IF it can meet demand otherwise TSMC is backup. GF 14nm process good enough for the successful Radeon series for AMD but TSMC capable of the 7nm process.
2017 AMD and GF launch what becomes 2 generations of the successful Zen microprocessor. It runs on the 12nm process GF developed with Samsung's help.
2018 GF struggling with its 7nm development cannot meet AMD's demand. After 2018 AMD increasing moves to TSMC and becomes exceeding profitable every year after. The stock price soars.
GF finds some happiness with 12nm and 14 nm chip business. Tom Caulfield becomes CEO in 2018 and decides right away to give up on chasing the 7nm market because they were clearly behind TSMC and the equipment was too much for money losing GF. The majority of customers are happy with good enough chips which run higher than 7nm. GF really starts to move up as GF looks to diversify into multiple chip categoreis with at least 7, run on 12nm up to 130nm chips. According to Tom Caulfield the CEO of GF, "We work with our customers where they are". He has been building out their silicon photonics business looking to it as a growing series of products and hoping to bring down costs to advance the future line.
Where is Intel? Complacency allowed others to leapfrog their profitable microprocessor business. They abandoned the GPU market early thinking they could live off microprocessors. They have a history of using financial guys in the CEO role and that has led to losing the necessary focus on the rapid advancement of their technology market and prevented them from getting into diversified markets.
Lessons learned:
1) AMD learned that manufacturing chips to stay ahead requires a lot of money and it is hard to be profitable unless you lead the pack. Buying new equipment each time a new process is needed is too costly. Better to be a design company and stay ahead with designs. Going capital light is great for profits. LWLG knows this and has been the plan since Dr. Lebby has been on board.
2)Leading edge in manufacturing only works if you lead the pack. Just ask TSMC. LWLG plans to lead the pack in the photonics space working with their partners.
3)You cannot make money if your yields are not top notch. GF early on learned that painful lesson. That is why there is so much emphasis of high volumes wirth high yields. Foundries are careful to make sure that is the case. Time is needed for that to be developed as we know with Lightwave's partners.
4) GF learned you need a CEO who knows the entire market, looks at getting into multiple lines of business and could think years ahead. They struggled until Tom Caulfield became CEO in 2018 who has those qualities. Look what Lisa SU did for AMD. LWLG's Dr. Lebby fits that bill I believe.
5)Manufacturing delays will put you behind. Lightwave has 2024 as a goal to start bringing out product or they will fall behind.
6) Finding the right partners (as AMD did with TSMC) who are competent and reliable is absolutely necessary. We all hope our company is getting that right.
7)Looking at Intel, it is better to have a CEO who knows the technology market inside and out and is a visionary as Tom Caulfield is proving to be. Dr. Lebby is a very good fit for an emerging tech company.
8)For a small company being capital light is everything. It keeps you out of debt and quickens your road to profitability.
9)Learning from other companies' successes and failures can allow a new company to avoid problems.
Andy and Arista are obviously not partnering with Lightwave in order to be that out of tune as to what is going on. Arista is likely committed to competing technology at present but that can change at any point if Arista hears about HVM starting earlier than 2026. Andy will hear about it before we do whenever that is.
If the demand is there in 2025, I see no good reason to say HVM could not start if one or more foundries are ready.
That is an amazing opportunity if a shareholder is patient. Right now we can only imagine what the other verticals can bring about in the next couple years. There are many other uses we have thought about that the company has only superficially touched on. It wll be up to other companies to champion those uses after licensing with LWLG. Any one or many can come to light anytime in the next year or two with their own designs and licensing fees paid to LWLG. Network switching, 5G, and LIDAR can't be too far behind.
Tieprathy good points. If LWLG was funding the development with 5 or more foundries they would have had a tremendous cash burn over the last couple years. Add that to the obvious expenses on salaries, lab equipment, stock based compensation to directors and employees and it would never have added up.
Ted is here to create uncertainty and chaos. Nobody hangs around all day to quickly try to denigrate posters who dare to identify positive things about the company. He uses so many techniques to create uncertainty that fits with someone trying to deceive people. Lets look at some of the techniques I have observed over the last couple years.
From a Deceiver's Handbook:
1) Repeatedly say you are always honest and never lie.
2) Create lengthy complex responses that don't focus on facts but focus only on what has not been said by management while ignoring information from the company that is meant to say problems are solved.
3) Jump between past and present to justify current "problems".
4) Answer questions with questions
5) Avoid taking responsibility for opinions that are presented as fact, continuing to present them as facts.
6) Use empathic, respectful language not to alienate others.
7) Repeating the same disinformation over and over even when proven wrong. (The PDK failures are getting very old).
8) Denigrate mangement saying they try to deceive with their information.
9) Flood a board with negative posts to overwhelm positive sentiment.
10) Try to engage directly with others to debate opinions and facts to gain credibility and repeat disinformation.
11) Always try to get in the last word.
12) Magnify insignificant insignificant facts creating FUD.
13)Bait others into engagement.
Many have said not to directly engage with him and I would agree. A response to his misinformation (based on ignorance) or purposeful disinformation can be addressed with a new post as statement of fact. In the end, what counts is what management says and does.
When you say that the "energy bill is just a rounding error on some bean counter's ledger" is a ridiculous statement. Data Centers use about 50 times the energy that typical commercial buildings utilize so it is not an insignificant number. I agree that cooling systems are extremely important to lower power usage to protect the long term stability of equipment. Data centers will use about 35% of their power for HVAC systems to cool the Data Center. They use 50% of their power to run the IT equipment. Any time you can decrease that power with more efficient transceivers you are producing less heat and saving dollars not having to go to more cooling strategies. The entire IT industry is interested in lowering power consumption so how can you say what you are saying?
As to your opinion that "no one cares about energy usage" as well as "carbon credits" go tell that to Google, Microsoft, AWS that are commiting to drastic reductions in power consumption. If you are running a data center and fail to address the large power bill your accountants warn you about, you will also lose customers as a large majority of the public want to work with companies that are mindful of power use and emssions even if you are not.
If Congress doesn't defund the EPA, there will be fines and penalties in the not to distant future for excess power consumption by data centers.
We live in a very competitive world.
In the technoloigy space, the competition is brutal as many companies compete for a share of their available market. Their speed in innovating will either lead to sucess if they come out on time with next generation products that are competitive or they will lose significant sales if they cannot offer leading edge products on time.
Data Centers are in desperate need to increase bandwith speed while lowering power consumption. The data demand appears to be greater than many anticipated with several new applications that are data hogs coming out in a short period of time. The companies that offer modulators, CPUs and GPUs that run faster on lower power will win out. It is no wonder Dr. Lebby is getting many inqueries about licensing and availabilty of modulators and transceivers and integration into new network offerings. His third quarter update doesn't have the numbers yet but the demand sounds like it is huge. It is not a surprise based on how much polymers add to the value of silicon photonics.
We don't know how deep the foundry partners that have completed PDKs can go with production in 2024. Based on the demand and the value proposition that polymer based modulators offer, LWLG and partners can sell as many as they can produce in 2024. I believe the estimates from a year ago will likely be considerably larger than what was projected in the past. There is no need for Dr. Lebby to publically state updated guidance. You don't do that when you are coming out of development and going into competition with many larger manufacturers. It is much better to under promise and over deliver.
I agree that a corporate marketing strategy would be helpful. They are probably planning for that for the future. The veil regarding beginning commercialization was lifted today more than at any time in the past. I like the fact that Dr. Lebby starting talking about Tier-1 network manufacturers interested in licensing their technology as well as transceiver manufacturers asking about modulators for the upcoming 2024 rollout of their 800G transceivers. They wouldn't be talking about all this unless Lightwave has everything figured out regarding manufacture with some foundry partners and modulators are performing well.
Once modulators flow into the market I suspect corporate marketing could come into play as there will be concrete product to talk about that goes a long way to solve power consumption problems while offering markedly faster speed. Marketing that goes beyond just manufacturers and customers would be interesting. Once government agencies and the general public become more aware of the environmental benefits of moving to Lightwave's technology there could be even more press to hasten the transition to using polymer enhanced chips.
Things continue to get urgent for data centers to reduce power consumption.
To find the full article you can search for it by the name: "The Path to Data Center Decarbonization Starts Now".
"By 2025 the data center market is expected to expand by more than 18 percent annually reaching 250 billion."
"According to the International Energy Agency, data centers consume upwards of 250 tera-watt hours (TWh) representing one percent of global electricity demand".
"The number is expected to reach eight percent by 2030."
The above sounds like a looming disaster unless the data center industry makes major changes. They are under increasing pressure to find ways to markedly lower power consumption and the growing amount of carbon emissions.. The SEC is likely in 2024 to require data centers to disclose their greenhouse gas emissions and other climate related risks. Environmental groups are demanding changes. Further government intervention is likely unless data centers start implimenting practices to cut energy usage or to go to carbon free options. They will do this by many costly means to add equipment to better cool the data centers as well as finding replacements for back-up power generators that are very polluting to the[url][/url][tag]insert-text-here[/tag] air.
Microsoft, Google and Amazon Web Services are making commitments to markedly lower greenhouse gas emissions and to use renewable power options (currently costly) and to be carbon free by 2030. I am sure they are aware of all available ways to lower power consumption and produce less heat that will stress cooling systems.
Do you think they have pressed their transceiver suppliers to use LWLG inside to lower their power consumption under these circumstances?
Do you think that the data center customers have influenced their transceiver suppliers to look into and ask Dr. Lebby for them to learn how to include polymer based modulators into their 800G transceiver programs?
I certainly do.
An investment by AMAT's Venture Division would raise some very interesting questions. An investment could be a foot in the door to a buy out down the line but there would be a big increase in the share price immediately as Lightwave gains significant market recognition and credibility. It would allow things to play out with further development of LWLG's polymers in the industry adding to the valuation before an eventual buy out. It might move other companies in the know to try and get a piece of the company as well. That only happens if it was advantageous to LWLG.
This is a nice dream but we need to get some deals first. It is just a matter of time for that to happen.
I agree that AMAT would be the one company that it makes sense to me as a takeover candidate. It is nice to work with and buy from a company you know well and have a good relationship with. After making a deal with AMAT for using perkinamine they can point and say "by the way, as long as I'm here, I'll take one of those new 500 mil. 3nm chip process systems". Shopping made easy.
"All they need to do is add Perkinamine in their process, it frees up 80% of the space inside the cage, and they can do away with the driver". Well stated X. We sometimes don't consider the size of modulators as that much of a driver to future sales. The industry has been talking increasingly about the use of co-packaged optics as a solution to lowering power consumption and possibly lowering cost. A large number of companies are studying and looking at designs for materials that will fit into co-packaged optics. Here, small size matters. Dr. Lebby has stated that perkinamine can work in either pluggables or co-packaged optics. The latter will need more development but with many companies exploring designs it could emerge sooner than is thought at this time. Below is a link to a partial list of companies interested in this possible solution. Any or all could be customers a few years from now.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/global-co-packaged-optics-market-size-share-2022-2032-vishal-bhosale
I am not interested, nor will most people, about your links to 2017. They have completely different products and methods of manufacture to make superior modulators that outshine any other modulators that don't have current versions of perkinamine inside. You are comparing apples to oranges again.
Many posters on this board are trying to convince folks that Lightwave's story is just a rerun of the TV series Arrested Development. They say commercialization is years away as there is so much more for them to do but they ignore what Dr. Lebby tells members in the industry and shareholders.
At the recent ECOC meeting, during his presentation on "Commercializing electo-optic polymers", he talked stability, 800G modulators, licensing models and his takeaway was "We are developing prototypes for trial and reliability testing". Lightwave is at the stage of working with one or more transceiver partners to offer prototype designs for potential customers to sample in their own systems. This requires working on package designs that customers want that can easily plug into their systems. This does take time for development and the testing. It is unclear exactly where they are in the process but it likely has started. This fits in Dr. lebby's forcast for 2024 being the year of shipping LWLG powered transceivers. If you are a shareholder it means being patient over the coming months as we know development takes time. There should be news at some point on partnering deals with foundries prior to news of devices being ready for sale. Dr. Lebby said we can perhaps see another deal or two in 2023. In the meantime we neeed to be patient with a share price that is low due to timing uncertainty.
It is great to hear that Dr. Lebby is getting a lot of attention at the conference. As we have discussed, this particular conference allows for more networking opportunities without as much distractions that are present at other conferences that are set up with largely just presentations and open to a wider public audience. This gets rid of the eavesdroppers and celebrity seekers.
While networking with other tech manufacturers is important it is the interactions with potential customers that might be even more important. There are likely Tier 1 data center customers who have been in the loop that may need updating. If they have not already asked, Dr. Lebby must be ready for the question of when will finished transceivers with LWLG fueled chips become available. If they are under an NDA , they will know before us.They will want to know available volumes that may be projected during 2024. This of course depends on the readiness of partners. He must be prepared to give customers some guidance if they are under NDAs or at least say he will be touch after the conference if he anticipates a detailed discussion. Previous guidance was for a limited number of transceivers in 2024 while ramping higher in 2025. This is from over a year ago and we are in a rapidly changing market, with likely greater demand and Dr. Lebby has not given us any updates on numbers publically.
Customers are in active planning for 2024 for needed upgrades. They need to know whether Dr. Lebby is holding a pair or whether it is a straight flush with 2024 coming very soon.
When you are trying to sell yourself to partners and especially customers as to your being ready for fueling a large scale rollout of new and improved modulators with multiple customers you have to have the concrete evidence to show you can be relied on for timliness. The increased lab space and now financial strength with 30+ million in the bank and no debt answers a lot of questions regarding "can you handle this"?
The NDAs are not a way to measure active engagement between companies in the context of one of the companies working through their own needed development before being ready for the active engagement process. In other words, "keep me informed of your progress under our NDA" and when ready, active engagement and integration of the technology begins between the companies.
I agree. Ted's focus on conspiracy fantasies about Dr. Lebby being vague to confuse and lead investors on is shameful.
Buying into develoment stage company is risky business more often than not. You have to do your homework on the company and the market it hopes to enter sucessfully. That homework must involve ongoing monitoring of the financials and preparing for likely future dilution of shares as shares are sold to fund development. Competitors are a big risk and they must be understood at all times to know if your company has a chance to make it. A management team that is honest, frugal and knows the business inside and out is a must. Is the product in development an advance as to what is currently available? Any of those qualities not present will sink a company. You must ask yourself if there is progress being made and if it is slow, is there predictable and understanable reasons for that and are they correctable. These and other questions must be thought through to sustain an investor as most developmental companies struggle with a low share price and are vulnerable to price manipulation especially when risk in the market is high for that is when small companies do poorly. Short sellers will feed on such companies in those conditions.
All of this should seem familiar to investors here. I am amazed at the large amount of long holders of LWLG stock but as I, having come on board later, have closely followed progress I can see why. All of the above risks seem rather low and market participants are more interested in a new material that will advance their business and there is no material as effective as Lightwave's polymers. Over the last 6 months pieces are being added by management that supports expectations of commercialization. We have been wearied from the slow pace of things however that is mainly the company and partners doing things the right way, proving all aspects of the technology, and preparing for a successful launch which will be starting very soon. If you are able, hang in there with this bad market and remember, current market conditions should not stop the momentum for this company as its customers have the deep pockets to buy what they need and the need is getting bigger all the time..
What can you expect from someone in the Basher School for Idiots.
We shouldn't get too excited about gallium. China controls 98% of worldwide production. At any time they could restrict sales to the U.S . in retaliation for restrictions on chips for artificial intelligence. This will likely create caution for any foundry thinking of going in that direction.
When the product lead of Google Bard tells folks that "I just want to be clear:Bard is not search", we should listen and take a cautious approach to results from using it as search. He cautions people that Bard will come to incorrect conclusions at times and make up facts but it will get better over time as it is still learning.
It is reasonable to use it as a starting point for search but fact checking details is needed. One must look for corrobating evidence through the means we have used before to validate information..
From what I have read, Google's Bard is mostly based on public information, a lot of it. The ability to correlate so much public informatioin gives it an advantage in correlating data into a useful form to help you to understand things better. There is a reason why AI programs have been called assistants. You still have to use your own logical thinking as to what Bard tells you is true. You also have to fact check what Bard tells you according to Jack Krawczyk, the product lead on Google's Bard.
According to Krawczyk,“Bard and ChatGPT are large language models, not knowledge models. They are great at generating human-sounding text, they are not good at ensuring their text is fact-based. Why do we think the big first application should be Search, which at its heart is about finding true information?”
Krawczyk responded by immediately saying, “I just want to be very clear: Bard is not search.”
He also has said that Bard does not use information from private e-mails. They do use e-mails to help train Bard on language models so they sound like a human but don't use data as part of a knowledge base.
I would agree the information Bard gives us is based on a large amount of public information, some of it might even come from public chat boards like I-Hub because it is public. That might be correlated with other public information from companies to come up with Bard facts. I think some of what Bard says will likely be proven but much of it will not.
Users of Bard are told to fact check Bards facts as they are often not fact based. Bard suggests using Google search to fact check. I know that disappoints us because we want to believe what we are reading in the Bard searches. I have not used it but there is a Bard fact checking tool available with it. Below is Bard's frequently asked questions from Bard if there are board menbers interested.
https://bard.google.com/faq?hl=en[url][/url][tag]insert-text-here[/tag]
This issue with naked short selling and entities having gotten away with it for years underscores the bizarro world we live in in the U.S. In europe short selling isn't even allowerd but it is legal here in the U.S. You could have been a naked short seller for years making a ton of money by stealing it from others and there was no enforcement by the SEC even when complaints were made. On the other hand, if you walk outside and you are naked, police will come to arrest you. It shows that the little guy gets little respect but the guys in big finance operate under a set of unwritten rules special for them.
Lightwave Logic has had to jump through many hoops to get to the point it is ready to commercialize with what sounds like many partners. While we focus on the stock price and potential news we must sometimes take a wider look around. Sachel Paige said in the past "Don't look back, something might be gaining on you". There are situations where you have to look back and see if someone is gaining on you especially in competitive markets.
https://opg.optica.org/oe/fulltext.cfm?uri=oe-30-11-19771&id=473013
LWLG is far ahead in commercializing EOPs in the preferred wavelengths used in telecommunications, 1310 and 1550. There are other applications that will likely utilize polymers operating at wavelengths below 1000. Here is an article from authors from Japan. They have manufactured their own electro-optic polymer operating at 640nm wavelength and tested it in their lab. They reported very good efficiency and projected stability and imagined it having applications in areas like opotical sensing, Lidar and quantum computing where operating wavelengths under 1000 may be optimal. The article cites other researchers who have worked on similar devices using polymers. This all speaks to the fact that Lightwave Logic is not the only entity that can come up with EOPs.
It is one thing to do it in a lab and another to do everything it takes to bring it to the cusp of commercialization. There are also LWLG patents that could effect another company commercializing another polymer at least requiring some royalties to do so. Lightwave is very much ahead in the telecommunications market.
Dr. Lebby has talked about future uses of the company's polymers in sensing, Lidar and quantum computing. He has said their polymers are tunable although I don't know how far that can be taken without effecting efficiency or stability. I suspect that he know, otherwise he would not have said said those were possible future markets for Lightwave's polymers.
I would say to Dr. Labby "You better look back because someone might be gaining on you".
It is meetings like this that don't just offer presentations but also offer opportunities to network with possible customers and to discuss future collaborations that are the most fruitful. The start of getting into meaningful talks on doing business often begins at such a meeting and contunue afterwards.
Here is the complete list from the Holdings Channel. Information was end of the second quarter 6/30/23. the first number after the name is the total shares owned.
Holder Amount Position Size
($ in 1000's) As of
Vanguard Group Inc. 8,002,391 $55,777 06/30/2023
BlackRock Inc. 7,951,559 $55,422 06/30/2023
State Street Corp 2,483,450 $17,310 06/30/2023
Geode Capital Management LLC 2,303,711 $16,057 06/30/2023
Northern Trust Corp 1,054,929 $7,353 06/30/2023
Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc. 853,269 $5,947 06/30/2023
Millennium Management LLC 833,260 $5,808 06/30/2023
Susquehanna International Group LLP $3,170 06/30/2023
LWLG 491,585 $3,426 06/30/2023
Put 291,400 $2,031 06/30/2023
Call 254,600 $1,775 06/30/2023
Bank of New York Mellon Corp 383,352 $2,672 06/30/2023
UMB Bank N A MO 308,092 $2,147 06/30/2023
Nuveen Asset Management LLC 307,911 $2,146 06/30/2023
Group One Trading L.P. $2,078 06/30/2023
Call 205,000 $1,429 06/30/2023
LWLG 125,745 $876 06/30/2023
Put 32,600 $227 06/30/2023
Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai Asset Management Co. Ltd. 259,849 $1,811 06/30/2023
Swiss National Bank 235,800 $1,644 06/30/2023
First Western Trust Bank 233,598 $1,628 06/30/2023
LPL Financial LLC 228,402 $1,592 06/30/2023
JPMorgan Chase & Co. 215,834 $1,504 06/30/2023
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. 186,749 $1,302 06/30/2023
Morgan Stanley 169,713 $1,183 06/30/2023
Advisory Services Network LLC 162,966 $1,136 06/30/2023
Glenmede Trust Co. NA 208,833 $1,092 06/30/2023
Rhumbline Advisers 142,231 $991 06/30/2023
California State Teachers Retirement System 133,436 $930 06/30/2023
Jane Street Group LLC $900 06/30/2023
LWLG 90,697 $632 06/30/2023
Call 38,500 $268 06/30/2023
Bank of America Corp DE 125,704 $876 06/30/2023
National Asset Management Inc. 113,089 $788 06/30/2023
Alliancebernstein L.P. 112,400 $783 06/30/2023
Legal & General Group Plc 108,498 $762 06/30/2023
D. E. Shaw & Co. Inc. 107,629 $750 06/30/2023
Credit Suisse AG 101,511 $708 06/30/2023
Putnam Investments LLC 95,182 $663 06/30/2023
UBS Group AG 88,211 $615 06/30/2023
Westover Capital Advisors LLC 80,933 $564 06/30/2023
Solidarilty Wealth LLC 76,866 $536 06/30/2023
UBS Asset Management Americas Inc. 90,575 $474 06/30/2023
Ensign Peak Advisors Inc 66,600 $464 06/30/2023
Price T Rowe Associates Inc. MD 62,267 $435 06/30/2023
Brandywine Oak Private Wealth LLC 60,774 $424 06/30/2023
MetLife Investment Management LLC 60,703 $423 06/30/2023
Deutsche Bank AG 57,795 $403 06/30/2023
SG Americas Securities LLC 88,090 $394 09/30/2023
American International Group Inc. 55,210 $385 06/30/2023
Wells Fargo & Company MN 52,296 $365 06/30/2023
Citadel Advisors LLC $355 06/30/2023
LWLG 251,889 $1,756 06/30/2023
Put 246,100 $1,715 06/30/2023
Call 45,100 $314 06/30/2023
Invesco Ltd. 50,292 $351 06/30/2023
Janus Henderson Group PLC 49,367 $344 06/30/2023
Walkner Condon Financial Advisors LLC 49,223 $343 06/30/2023
Mirae Asset Global Investments Co. Ltd. 46,256 $322 06/30/2023
Voya Investment Management LLC 45,680 $318 06/30/2023
New York State Common Retirement Fund 45,390 $316 06/30/2023
Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. 45,000 $314 06/30/2023
The Manufacturers Life Insurance Company 44,494 $310 06/30/2023
Greenspring Advisors LLC 66,725 $298 09/30/2023
Barclays PLC 42,343 $295 06/30/2023
Advisor Group Holdings Inc. 42,301 $295 06/30/2023
Kestra Advisory Services LLC 40,953 $285 06/30/2023
Simplex Trading LLC $263 06/30/2023
Call 52,700 $367 06/30/2023
Put 25,400 $177 06/30/2023
LWLG 10,493 $73 06/30/2023
Citigroup Inc. 36,893 $257 06/30/2023
Philadelphia Trust Co. 35,000 $244 06/30/2023
State Board of Administration of Florida Retirement System 32,560 $227 06/30/2023
Virtu Financial LLC 32,319 $225 06/30/2023
Commonwealth Equity Services LLC 31,303 $218 06/30/2023
Arizona State Retirement System 30,420 $212 06/30/2023
Arete Wealth Advisors LLC 22,600 $158 06/30/2023
Wolverine Trading LLC $155 06/30/2023
Call 22,200 $155 06/30/2023
Mercer Global Advisors Inc. ADV 21,952 $153 06/30/2023
Envestnet Asset Management Inc. 21,952 $153 06/30/2023
Brown Advisory Inc. 21,800 $152 06/30/2023
Balyasny Asset Management LLC 21,450 $150 06/30/2023
AQR Capital Management LLC 19,589 $137 06/30/2023
ProShare Advisors LLC 19,571 $136 06/30/2023
Belvedere Trading LLC $134 06/30/2023
LWLG 18,749 $131 06/30/2023
Call 900 $6 06/30/2023
Put 500 $3 06/30/2023
Gateway Wealth Partners LLC 18,175 $127 06/30/2023
Zurcher Kantonalbank Zurich Cantonalbank 18,087 $126 06/30/2023
Amalgamated Bank 17,406 $121 06/30/2023
King Luther Capital Management Corp 16,000 $112 06/30/2023
Raymond James & Associates 15,876 $111 06/30/2023
HighTower Advisors LLC 15,000 $105 06/30/2023
BIP Wealth LLC 15,012 $105 06/30/2023
Rockland Trust Co. 14,750 $103 06/30/2023
Royal Bank of Canada 14,043 $99 06/30/2023
Pictet Asset Management SA 14,001 $98 06/30/2023
Principal Financial Group Inc. 13,540 $94 06/30/2023
Ameriprise Financial Inc. 12,630 $88 06/30/2023
Victory Capital Management Inc. 12,232 $85 06/30/2023
Johnson Investment Counsel Inc. 11,465 $80 06/30/2023
The PNC Financial Services Group Inc. 10,936 $76 06/30/2023
Personal CFO Solutions LLC 10,000 $70 06/30/2023
Hohimer Wealth Management LLC 10,000 $70 06/30/2023
Teacher Retirement System of Texas 12,521 $65 06/30/2023
Ameritas Investment Partners Inc. 8,384 $58 06/30/2023
Avenue 1 Advisors LLC 10,513 $47 09/30/2023
IFP Advisors Inc 9,500 $42 09/30/2023
Metropolitan Life Insurance Co NY 5,920 $41 06/30/2023
Nisa Investment Advisors LLC 5,375 $37 06/30/2023
Tower Research Capital LLC TRC 3,550 $25 06/30/2023
Hoey Investments Inc. 3,200 $22 06/30/2023
FMR LLC 1,884 $13 06/30/2023
Focused Wealth Management Inc 800 $6 06/30/2023
Harbour Investments Inc. 492 $3 06/30/2023
Tortoise Investment Management LLC 485 $3 06/30/2023
Global Wealth Strategies & Associates 500 $3 06/30/2023
Nvwm LLC 250 $2 06/30/2023
Tyler Stone Wealth Management 250 $2 06/30/2023
Global Retirement Partners LLC 170 $1 09/30/2023
US Bancorp DE 200 $1 06/30/2023
Winch Advisory Services LLC 110 $1 06/30/2023
WealthPLAN Partners LLC 111 $1 06/30/2023
Glassman Wealth Services 143 $1 06/30/2023
CWM LLC 41 $0 09/30/2023
Proequities Inc. $0 06/30/2023
Put 0 $0 06/30/2023
Call 0 $0 06/30/2023
LWLG 0 $0 06/30/2023
Bank of Montreal Can $0 06/30/2023
Put 37,100 $291 06/30/2023
LWLG 37,102 $291 06/30/2023
Cutler Group LP $0 06/30/2023
Put 1,600 $1 06/30/2023
Call 1,700 $1 06/30/2023
Covestor Ltd 18 $0 06/30/2023
ORG Partners LLC 0 $0 06/30/2023
Aristides Capital LLC 11,500 $-80 06/30/2023
Put 11,500 $80 06/30/2023
See Summary: Institutional Holders of LWLG
See Details: Top 10 Hedge Funds Holding LWLG
Also See: LWLG Insider Buying
Also See: LWLG Holdings Changes
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According to the Holdings Channel, there are 106 hedge funds, reporting on the latest 13F filings, that are holding shares in LWLG. The link below showed me 6 of the top 10 before requiring registration on the site. Banks, insurance companies and hedge funds are included from my observation. Scwab, Vanguard and BlackRock was also included. Geode Capital, Millennium Management and Susquehana International would qualify as investment houses making targetted choices. There is a lot more interest in LWLG ownership than just etfs.
https://www.holdingschannel.com/hedge-funds/holding-lwlg/