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Wow, sorry I missed a couple weeks of crazy pumpers at this board - that had to be a hoot.
You asked: "At what point is the float killed? In other words, how many shares does the float have to increase by to "kill" our chances of success?"
IMO this Q has a subjective answer based on individual goals rather than an objective answer that can be quantified with a hard number. When the float doubles, your value is halved. When the float increases by a factor of 10, your value is 1/10th. Pardon the oversimplification. It's like the un-reverse split.
Following the rules of proportion to determine how much dilution kills a stock depends somewhat on your definition of success. The more a float is diluted, the more one's definition of success may need to change. If you were waiting for a 5-bagger from .01, you now need a 25-bagger for the same success. Depending on the rules you set for your investment or trade when you got in, and whether you change those rules as you play (which I often do with pinks - sometimes my biggest mistake and sometimes my best move) the float can be killed with a relatively small % increase. And it is isn't always the % change, sometimes just the fact that they diluted or the fact that they did it in an underhanded manner is enough to motivate the sellers out of control and to keep the buyers away.
He may be telling the truth about not knowing how the stock is traded. That is scary for two reasons. 1.) He may not know much about running a public company or making investors money 2.) There may be other forces at work which, if he is telling the truth, are so powerful that they can overwhelm a company that is worth it's salt, does have a good business, plan and market. A strong CEO is the secret to a successful company, esp when your investment is based on fundys. That said, a good CEO would, imo, ensure regular and consistent accounting and reporting, and provide dependable transparency to the shareholders.
Dr Walker told me in writing "The two sources that are available to all investors are press releases and the financial information filed with Pink Sheets. The Pink Sheets information is updated quarterly and press releases when appropriate."
They are late in their filing.
You said: "Dr. Walker knows exactly what the share structure is."
How do we know that? When I asked him, he told me "The financial end of the business including the structuring of the stock situation is in the hands of Mitchell Segal, our financial consultant. I suggest you email him at <mailto:galbri@msn.com>galbri@msn.com."
I posted earlier from memory, the impression I had was that he did not know, so I should retract the absolutness of that statement - 'he does not appear to know' may be more accurate. When emailing segal - I got no reply - even after several attempts, including CCing the Dr and including the Drs instruction to email Segal.
Enjoy the weekend
GLTA
The only evidence I have that this May Not be a clean shell or that there May be dilution or that Dr May Be scamming us is
1.) The price action and reaction to the great news and amazing share structure over the last year, and
2.) The fact that so often 1/3 - 1/2 the daily volume trades AH. Millions of shares were added to the daily volume at off prices in the after hours amounting to well over the size of the "known" float.
3.) The lack of availablility of info on share structure or any other kind of filings
With a float of only 17M and an OS of 63M, you dont need dilution to the tune of > 100s of millions to destroy shareholder value... 17M more shares doubles the float, and so on. It takes very little to kill a low float.
Do you have any evidence to suggest that this IS a clean a shell? Or Not a scam? Or not being diluted? The filings are only accurate as of 12/31/07 - the only real evidence is over 6 months old - we don't know what's happened since then, other than millions of wacky shares trading and an enormous loss in value. We were told by our CEO that pinksheets would be updated, but there has been no update. We are now overdue - and seemingly more than overdue as I have seen posters who've claimed to have spoken with Walker say an update was coming End of April and another saying End of May.
As for Walker: I've given him my cash - - he won't even tell me what % of his Co. I own. It may be > 1% or may be < .01%. His advice to me is that I wait to find out what I own while the value of my shares drops consistently. He says he can only control the shares he owns.
A CEO who does not pump his company... that doesn't make him NOT a scam artist either - but this guy says he doesn't have any idea why the stock trades as it does - has no idea of the current share structure - and makes no contact with his investors - even when he is losing 90% of their $$ every couple of months. That doesn't make him a scammer but gives little reason to give him the benefit of the doubt in the face of a falling pps.
I only stopped posting doom and gloom because I was away enjoying sun and surf. :) Now that I'm back in the grime and slime I will continue to post it as I see it. :) I don't see what is emotional about posting the other side of the coin. When the Co. starts making things happen, I will post nothing but golden praises, unless I see some potential that I feel should not be ignored. That will not be emotional either - it will be a reflection of the merits the Company shows.
As you said, DD does not stop at an ihub message board. So, no, I don't think the posting hurts or helps too much really. I think people come to read what other people think, what they've found out and about their experiences with the stock. Why lie or hide info? How they weigh what they read into their equation for whether to buy sell or hold is up to them, I say: Good or bad, put it out there for all to read. (and to record your own thoughts and notes so that you can return to the board and learn from your past thinking/experience)
I hope I've addressed all your points. MAN this is a LONG post!
GLTY
GLTA
When they updated late Feb early Mar PPS went from a low of .01 to a high of .022, based mostly on the fact that it appeared ONCO was moving toward transparency and doing things the right way. When it appeared the updating and movement toward transparency was stopping, PPS dropped well below that .01 low. It is always in a legitimate Company's best interest to update, to become and to remain transparent. But you knew that. I just needed a sentence to close with :)
It also appeared to be a clean shell with a great share count 3-6 months ago. At that time, .03 was way undervalued. PPS has since fallen 90% and no new reports have been filed in over 3 months... is it still a clean shell?
When PPS gets damaged that badly, and after so much 'good' news, I have to really wonder about the sharecount, not to mention the management. Been burnt by non-reporting apparently good clean shells in the past. They just do what they want, when they want, and tell who they want when/if they feel like it.
Nobody knows what the Co is really doing; PPS is our only info. Chart shows stock has dropped like this since it's inception. News shows chart is going backwards since it's inception. Shorts usually research and short accordingly, not just based on some random idea that if we short this people will sell it. Also any short data on ONCO shows very small positions. And any shorts who didn't just take their positions, are up mega huge. Which leads us back to questioning share structure. All we can do there is conjecture.
Does it surprise me that ONCO is at .002? No. It surprises me that I am still in it and that others are thinking, once again, that the bottom is here and that a 10 bagger is still to be made here. A 10 bagger from here would not do much for most shareholders.
When something goes up, another thing goes down... it's the principle of equilibrium. I guess that means when the sun comes up tomorrow, ONCO will go down, they both seem to be equally certain. PPS now nearly 50% below that solid .003 bottom the chart was putting in. heh-heh. Oh brother.
I will look more into that Ichimoku indy... now that I notice it is available on stockcharts. Cool.
Interesting article... did not mention that Tracinda can also withdraw the offer if PPS falls below $7.38.
From the offer itself, p.2 -3: "We are not obligated to buy any shares in our offer if various events occur, including: ...
- a 10% or more decrease, measured from the close of trading on May 8, 2008, in the market price for the shares or in the general level of market prices for equity securities in the United States.")
Seriously, if they hold 100M at $6.91 average and pps is $5.97, why put on another 20% at $8.50/share? ...Just buy em on the open market and average down - - not up. It makes no sense except as some attempt to try and convince the public that F is worth more than $6... but the market is truly convincing the public otherwise.
Hey Capin - nice move. Looks like I missed a fun couple of weeks here. My position is unchanged since then, let em ride! I missed the short term top at 4.48 but am still happier than I was end of May. Need some time to get back in the swing of things, catch up on news of the workd, the market and LVLT, but a quick look at the chart says a golden cross should be coming soon - the 50 looks ready to cross up through the 200 in the next week or two.
mtrewulf:
How long have you been using Ichimoku indicator? How's it working for you? How much weight do you give it relative to other indicators? Not something I often see being used.
GLTU
I agree.
I was thinking of that, I just hate spending money when I'm not looking, esp because you never know what could really happen and have little control over the execution while you're under water. I suppose I cold go "too" low and see if it fills. Still have a few days to think about it. :)
Scary how it's falling. Look at the weekly chart - wow - lookout below! I know the PPS is very event driven but it looks like it could go right back into the 5s. Daily chart shows what appears to be a bottom starting in many indicators but I wouldn't trust it yet. Also 12.68% of the float is held short. Maybe they had something to say about these last couple days... People waiting for the turnaround don't want to wait another year.
The last two days were each big gaps down, with heavy volume on the 1st. And well below 7.38 (the price at which Tracinda is no longer obligated to make good on their offer). Except for the add'l financing, the 8.50 offer may be off the table. At the same time, there may be enough there to cause buying interest, thinking that if you can get in at $7 and sell at $8.50 you are doing pretty well. That seems remote right now.
I will wait for the "bottomest" price I can find and try averaging down a little. My bet is that is falls to the low while I am away so I miss the buy LOL
GLTY
Billionaire adds to loan for Ford Motor shares
Friday May 23, 9:51 am ET
By Ken Thomas, Associated Press Writer
Billionaire investor Kerkorian adds $100M in financing as part of bid to increase Ford stake
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian has added $100 million in financing as part of his bid to increase his stake in Ford Motor Co.
Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. said in a regulatory filing Friday it may borrow as much as $600 million from Bank of America. That's an increase from $500 million.
Kerkorian has said he wants to buy up to 20 million shares of Ford's common stock in an attempt to increase his ownership of the automaker to 5.5 percent.
Ford's board has taken a neutral stance on Kerkorian's offer.
16:04:00 - 700,000 - .0031
maybe that is where the sellers are
selling half the volume again in a single AH trade!
missed tha action today so have ni idea how that .0039 printed - or how it was followed (albeit hours later) by a trade of the same size at .0031
Got to love how the buying at .019 drops the ask to .0185.
Nice event. The garden just gets rosier. That will help the closing price tomorrow.
Interesting how the 426,000 @.003 from 16:04:45 yesterday now shows on my L2 as being 426,000 @ .0025 from 15:11:36... ONCO is being messed around big time again (still)
.0028 is on the inside bid now
16:04:45 - 426,000 - .003
MORE than 50% today's volume
- but closed at .0025
I liked that newsletter. Not that it helps PPS, I just liked it. Still holding mine while others sell at 7.83.
How cheaply can we get them and still sell back to Kirk?
How many offers do you think he'll be looking at? Remember anything we sell him will be proportionate to the amount of shares offered eg; if he is offered 100M shares he will only buy 1 for each 5 we want to sell him.
Daily chart is very weak, hoping for a bounce off or at least a hold of the lower BB but looks like downtrend will continue here.
Weekly is weakening but still up there, could be peaking soon. Interesting weekly A/D is overall quite down, while MFI is into overbought.
I still think the real payoff in this one is going to be a while.
With some luck. Maybe. Meantime... $37.50 drops it 16%
Not even that much profit taking really. Those days above 3.50 were proof of the bullishness waiting on tap. And now give it something to fall off of. Still hasnt found that hole in the ceiling.
The new LVLT should still be trading at 3 - 3.25, and 3.25 area should be beginning to turn into support. Big gap up to 2.75, strong run up to 3.63, a little capitulation is A OK and the climb higher should be long and slow, except for the big volatile up days and gaps up.
Still looks good to me
Bid moves up. Interesting.
.003 x .0035
.0025 x .004
someone jumps out at .003, takes .003 off the bid
and for a refreshing change of pace, the bid moves up to .0026!
1@ .0026 x 1@ .0035
2@ .0025 x 3@ .004
1@ .0021 x 1@ .0065
3@ .002 x 1@ .007
2@ .0017 x 1@ .008
2@ .01 x 2@ .0095
1@ .0009 x 1@ .015
4@ .0001 x 1@ .02
AUTO inside bid
VERT inside ask
A thrill a minute! As promised... I forgot to watch but somebody got a few through at .003. B/a was .0025 x .004 all day, now ask is .003. Was hoping for a 0 day.
2@ .0025 x 1@ .003
1@ .0021 x 3@ .004
3@ .002 x 1@ .007
2@ .0017 x 1@ .008
2@ .001 x 2@ .0095
1@ .0009 x 1@ .015
4@ .0001 x 1@ .02
With the standing offer of $8.50 it's a little perplexing to see selling at 7.88
Yup, but at least the PSAR is with us, although it has been for several previous downtrends as well). Interesting use of 5/3 SS, looks like a buy is coming up on that indicator.
I would be interested to hear your comments on that (5/3 SS) in general. The lines seem to follow each other very closely, making more signals than a slower SS.
The 10/3 SS for AQUI is carving out a nice bowl bottom, indicating possible turnaround beginning soon. The 5/3 seems to be confirming that. Now if only the price would agree...
Tracinda owns 100M shares at $6.91. Another 20M @ $8.50 would put them at about $7.17 per share. So in reading the terms of the offer, they are saying they find F to be an attractive investment at $7.17, not at $8.50 as it initially appears.
Also, if F falls below 7.38 by 6/9 Tracinda will not be obligated to follow through with the offer. That said, as much as anyone would love to pick up more F below $7s, I would expect strong support to prevent it falling much lower than $7.38. (Or (!) a frightening dump? if Tracinda decides to bail for some reason other than short-term falling PPS)
If the offer goes through, they will have about $861M invested when they are done. (plus fees)
What % are they expecting to make from this investment? Where will they get out? Or is it a question of when? What is their sell trigger?
$8.61 will give them 20%.
Are they expecting to see $10+ like many of us here are?
$10.75 would give them 50%
Surely they are looking at more of a fundamental trigger than a time or price trigger. This could put their sell trigger months or even years out. Need to do more DD on Tracinda's habits and their feelings on this.
Once past the $9 area (technically 9.70) the long-term breakout really begins.
LP - I am not expecting this to be a banner week, would guess at a Friday close around 3.33 - 3.43.
Right now I'd say as low as a 3.12 Friday close would still be on the right track and higher than 3.50 Friday close would surprise me.
Oooh - and then AFter the big fat AH print, they printed the same trade of 1,170,000 shares but at .0025 and timestamp 15:54:12
looks like I'm the only one left posting here HaW!
16:07:36 - 1,170,000 @ .0026
almost half the volume
OiNCO pigs
.002 X .0035 LOL - almost a double if you can buy the bid and sell the ask
4@ .002 x 1@ .0035
2@ .017 x 3@ .004
1@ .0015 x 1@ .007
3@ .001 x 1@ .009
1@ .0009 x 2@ .0095
4@ .0001 x 1@ .015
what a POS! Not even sure it is worth trying to buy .002s at this point.
1@ .0009 x 2@ .0095 = more than 10X difference!
Just like you NewMoney4me... Always thinkin'! Thanks :)
Very interesting morning climb into the 3.20s! Be nice to hold on to it.
Exactly! ...well, you know how pennies go, they say "end of the month" but as long as they don't say which month they never lied.
200000 .003 at bid
4/30 Short Interest = 243M shares, 16% of float, 8.8 days to cover
That is up 2.65% from 4/15
PPS is up >50% since 4/15 ... BUT Downtrend could begin today, PPS about to fall below EMA8, MACD is heading down, SS divergence is accelerating down, 2.94 looks possible? 2.90 should be pretty strong, would hate to fall below 2.80.
Friday close above 2.97 would be dandy. Looks like a few weeks more until 3.25 - 3.50 can start.
Only thing funnier is the 505,000 that just traded below the bid! Or did they drop the bid for that tidbit while I wasnt looking and then raise it back up after the trade? That isn't like ONCO.
We shoulda listened to bawz and smacked .004!
LOL
what penny trash this is- oinco
Hey bassfishing - I can't PM - can you send me more details or where to find more about it? Feel free to email if preferred: bp10003@aol.com
LOL - nope, doesn't smell like that's where you're talking from - but I am ASL (a#$ as a second language)... L2 was shaping up yesterday but still a big cap at .007, a#$uming breaks .005. We'll see where the million share trades go this afternoon. We at least need a PR saying the dilution is over :)
We should be so lucky!
:)
GLTA
Nope. Althought they seem to run on similar engines at times, the press of Dr Dilution is completely independent of the press Bernanke uses. They might even be in 2 different buildings. But I'm pretty sure I saw them hanging out at the water cooler.
...and I thought the printing press was unplugged today
900,000 more... 500,000 at bid, 400,000 below ask
388,319 inbetween
478,319 at bid
2M shares traded with no change in L2
.0027 print, getting closer!