Ford Motor Company (F)

[mr_bitterness]

Tracinda owns 100M shares at $6.91. Another 20M @ $8.50 would put them at about $7.17 per share. So in reading the terms of the offer, they are saying they find F to be an attractive investment at $7.17, not at $8.50 as it initially appears.

Also, if F falls below 7.38 by 6/9 Tracinda will not be obligated to follow through with the offer. That said, as much as anyone would love to pick up more F below $7s, I would expect strong support to prevent it falling much lower than $7.38. (Or (!) a frightening dump? if Tracinda decides to bail for some reason other than short-term falling PPS)

If the offer goes through, they will have about $861M invested when they are done. (plus fees)
What % are they expecting to make from this investment? Where will they get out? Or is it a question of when? What is their sell trigger?

$8.61 will give them 20%.
Are they expecting to see $10+ like many of us here are?
$10.75 would give them 50%
Surely they are looking at more of a fundamental trigger than a time or price trigger. This could put their sell trigger months or even years out. Need to do more DD on Tracinda's habits and their feelings on this.

Once past the $9 area (technically 9.70) the long-term breakout really begins.