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It was great for me. It went up significantly because of some deals when the world was ending.... I was able to sell it to fund my other buys during the dark time.
That's why I said timing is important.
>>I’ll find something else.
Do you go to other boards to tell everyone the subject stock is not for you? Why post here if you have no interest at all for $RVNC? Just wondering.
MNTA was a great buy for those buying in the darkest time. So were IDIX and GTCB for those who remember.
Many went under for sure. Small to mid cap biotech in general isn't for those that shoot for safety.
But I have NEVER seen any company with an already APPROVED potential blockbuster product selling as cheap as $RVNC.
I remember AMD was trading around $2, nobody wanted it, selling below its book value. No one cares, many thought it would be going under competing with Intel. Now at $170+, everyone wants it. Those who held looks smart now, gaming, crypto and now AI... who knew.. .It would easily be gone by now. Lisa won't have current success if she was leading AMD 10 years ago. Management is important but so do timing.
Company is important, management is important, the price you paid is important, the price when you sold is important.
For $RVNC, it's either a wildly successful story or a dog.
Haven't seen this many posts (mostly negative) in this board for a long time.
Funny how all these issues and negative views were not being brought up when $RVNC was trying well north of $30. And at $5, everything looks like major issues. Fact is the launch has not been executed well and it will take more time for Daxxify to win its fair share.
I fully expect they will turn quiet in coming quarters as Daxxify prevails in the market.
Best time to buy is when the everyone and their dogs hate it. And I think we are beyond that.
Yes pretty depressing to see
Hopefully they have a good explanation why the guidance is weak
Thanks - how about new competitor to Daxxify? Any interesting one?
I am less concerned about RHA. It's important but it won't be the one who make or break RVNC
I think some of the products you mentioned are only new to USA and have been in other countries for years.... so they are actually older "time and technology"
$60 - possible in 2028 timeframe, need 30% annual growth rate for next 4-5 years, 75% margin and a 5x EV/Sales multiple.
That's why $6 is a joke.
Interesting that RVNC is actually cheaper than EOLS on EV to sales basis based on 2024 estimate .
Yet projected growth rate and addressable market size for RVNC is higher much.
Mismanagement I guess
thanks go seek, I guess RVNC is lucky they didnt do a massive DTC campaign based on duration. That would even be harder to recover.
I agree the goal is to get Daxxify to more and more customers, but I don't think they want to rush things and should take their time this time.
>> Can anything change this trend now?
I joined the party late, but my cost basis is still quite a bit higher than what is current trading at. It sucks for sure.
Selling will eventually stop. The short interest is high, and shorts like to pile on when things look messy and the low guidance gives them lots of ammo. I think it's way overdone given RVNC still are on track for break-even in 2025.
The good news is every shares were bought and there are only so many shares available to sell, so it will end one day. 🥲
Well, when those more conversative customers see the results from the ones that have done it, then they will give it a try.
If you think about it, the last thing we want is for Daxxify and Botox to compete head and head on price for market share at current stage. I think many of us are under-estimating RVNC strategy here.
If Daxxify isn’t better than Botox, then there is no investment case here.
Daxxify is better product and it lasts longer so I think it makes sense for injectors to charge more. In fact, volume grows and 2/3 of reordering even when price is higher than competition is a good proof that the drug performs in real world.
25% more for customer is pretty good deal after we factoring in the duration.
Remember, customers will visit less often after they switch to Daxxify, some less busy injectors will need incentive to promote Daxxify. Higher profit per visit would be that incentive?
Over long term, it means $RVNC will have ability to increase price if it chooses to.
RNVC - below $10 is a good bet IMO. I think if they can ramp their sales up to 450mm in next couple years, it should at double or triple my money using a 5x multiple. It does look hopeless now. But buying when everything looks bright won't get you asymmetric return.
Risk is clear as well obviously.
It's pretty crazy 300mm just went puff like that. Someone should get fired because of that alone. I think the idea wasn't bad but they clearly were overconfidence about approval and the launch to think they can support to fund a fintech arm.
It's good info. Please keep posting what u see in social media area.
Watching the stock price go down week after week and month after month will do that for you. It is human nature.
Agree that a very targeted DTC campaign will be beneficial.
What do you think will happen the Hint and OPUL, are they just going to cease the operation there.?
Remember RVNC doesn't have huge war chest for their marketing like other big pharms. So they have to be as efficient as possible on every dime they spent.
They mentioned targeting $ for DTC campaign while injectors have no Daxxify to sell isn't the best use of capital. I think that makes sense.
So phase 1 is to get Daxxify to injectors' hands as fast and as many as possible.
After a few quarters, when many more injectors have Daxxify in hand and they are comfortable using it.... then Phase 2 - RVNC might start doing DTC campaign to boost the adoption. Much more efficient then.
I think one of the reason why RVNC is fine letting injectors enjoy the larger spread now is to speed up the phase 1.
Phase 3 is what better product always do at the end after it takes the market... charge premium price.
I don't know why this board is so bearish when the risk reward here is so good.
Current avg. revenue estimation
2024 320mm ($RVNC's own projection: At least 280mm)
2025 470mm
2026 622mm (this would mean FCF of almost > 100mm)
2027 755mm
We will do more than fine if RVNC can make those estimations.
The general consensus among injectors, analysts and customers is Daxxify is the best in class product. No one questions that.
It did launched with a subpar strategy, it is taking its time to right the ship.
Agree. Average revenue is forecasted to be around 620mm (range from 470 to 750mm)in 2026. Assume 75 percent margin and annual opex of 400mm, annual gross will be > 165mm
Refinancing won’t be a problem then.
Insider buy would help
15 percent short interest so lots of fuel when things recover
How do you guys line up their two guidances?
1)2024 sales guidance of at least 280mm (interesting that they don’t give an upper range like most companies)
2) Positive ebitda in 2025
Assuming 75mm quarterly expenses, to be positive, they need about 110 to 120mm of sales, their q4 at 2023 is 59mm. So they are projecting sales to double in 2 years? (~400mm)
But somehow in 2024, they only see 280mm
So they expect less than 20 percent this year and then 40’percent growth in 2025?
So either 2024 would be higher or they would have to cut expenses to meet 2025 guidance? Or CD would fill the gap in 2025 which is also likely.
I have this company starts to generate quite a bit cash starting 2026 on.
That’s not factor in sales from international partnership .
I think your math is off?
>>Let's charitably assume that in 2024 RVNC pulls in 320m of revenue at 70% GMs = 224m gross profit vs 300m in opex = a minimum of 75m cash burn during the year. That leaves us at 285m cash ending 2024.
So if they have 250mm cash on hand now, you expect they draw the 3rd tranche (150mm), they would have 400mm cash on hand. If 75mm cash burn, they should have 325mm YE? What am I missing?
>>I didn't include the 25m of annual interest payments to Athyrium or any taxes.
- You also didn't count include interest income with their 250mm cash on hand.
- taxes? - don't they have to earn income first?
If larger profits means faster adoption rate for injectors, it is fine I would think especially at the beginning of the launch
That’s interesting. So the winner is the loser here. Do you think OPUL would be a viable business for someone else? Or it would be a complete write off here?
DewDiligence, any thoughts on Opul platform? They are exiting the business by Q1. Do you think they can fetch some money on it?
After all, they paid 200 millions (8.5 million shares) for it and I think they spent like 20 to 30mm to it since 2020.
The last reported GMV was 700mm
Any hope for them to fetch some cash on the exit?
Stifel just reiterated with $30 target. Couple years of solid growth will change the picture completely, I believe next two years will make many people selling last couple days much regrets
I am buying
Agree the key here is the growth rate next few years. Debt won’t be an issue if they have enough sales to support it. 99 percent of tech companies will go under if one assumes they need to pay cash as soon as the debt matures. The fact is if they have good sales, they can refinance the debt as like how we deal with our mortgage.
5 is coming. Mind blowing
Ok, my read is they could settle with shares if they want.
You are assuming
- RVNC will HAVE to pay cash to settle the convertible - That's not the case.
- There will be no other financing available to RVNC even it becomes cash flow positive in 2025 with 400mm+ of sales and growing. - That's not likely. If they have 400mm sales in 2025 and generate cash, they should be able to refinance their debt.
- Zero milestone payments from China, etc... They should get 40mm? this year if approval comes (that's the current expectation).
Sure if all your assumptions were true, then obviously your conclusion will be>
>>>> On or after November 15, 2026 until the close of business on the second scheduled trading day immediately preceding the maturity date, holders may convert all or any portion of their 2027 Notes at any time, regardless of the foregoing circumstances. Upon conversion, we will pay or deliver, as the case may be, cash, shares of our common stock or a combination of cash and shares of our common stock, at our election.
Those convertible loans will get converted to shares most likely. Unless we get a change of control or RVNC decides to cash with do a cash settle.
The conversion price is sky high compared to current pps, I think it’s about 10 percent dilution when it gets converted
That’s one of the great move Foley did. The other one is 100mm ATM sale earlier in the year
I guess the lowballed guidance is too low lol
Are we going to see 5 again. Unbelievable. Even with 280mm, market cap should be higher than 600mm
Best drug in 6 billions TAM sector. Unreal.
Lots of frustration I guess
Picked up some more at 6.5. Much bad news should have been priced in.
Looking for steadily recovery as they meet or beat guidance quarter over quarter.
Well, based on the volume increase, 22 percent more people will be trying it QoQ
The 2/3 reordering rate is positive as well I think given the treatment is every ~6 months
That means injectors are adapting it once they used it
At current valuation, the best for shareholders long term is let RVNC grow itself steadily without stressing the balance sheet too much.
Cash flow break even in 2025 would bring big relief to me
>> depressed valuation
Dew - How would you value $RVNC is it only has RHA?