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advising you to cover the remaining 50% INTC.
I will cover my short hedge position on INTC at the next pullback. Note that I am short only a small position (now 1/12, was 1/6) of my long position, so if the stock goes straight up from here (doubtful) I will still be very happy :)
upgrades know about the flat revenue, and they are looking past that.
Agreed. This was also opined by one of the talking heads on CNBC who stated that the analysts now believe that the flat 2014 guidance is finally conservative enough.
re took short position
I'm getting hammered on my INTC short position. Had to cover half of it yesterday now I'm looking for a point to cover the other half. I have a number of short put positions in the green that equal the amount I've lost on the short. So the short basically wiped out my short term option profits. I'm definitely the poster boy for getting whip-sawed by the market this time.
So it is complicated:)
It always is!
When times get tough even those crumbs we used to let fall become important. Good for intel to leave no stone unturned!
Does not look like the old support at around 23.70 will hold today.
With only weaker support at approx 23.06 it looks like the high 22s are probably in our future. I'm resisting selling puts to early here since we could get better prices over the next two weeks. I took a short position on 1/6 of my shares last week at 23.55 as a hedge and will look to close that position if we get into the mid 22s.
I keep hearing bad things about Asus quality.
Yes I also read a lot of those (negative) reviews. But that's the thing with online reviews you get people on all sides. If you're looking for a $599-$799 build quality in a $349 device you're going to be disappointed but I read a number of reviews that also stated that for the performance and versatility you can't go wrong at this price point. So we'll see.
As I said I don't expect the build quality of this device to hold up for being ones primary laptop. But I'm thinking it could be fine for the laptop/tablet you throw in the backpack when traveling and/or consuming content from the couch.
Holiday season purchases so far:
1) Dell Venue 8 Pro tablet - for myself but I haven't played with it yet.
2) ASUS T100 Transformer - for my wife to replace her Intel laptop when she retires next week (after 30 years of service)! I'm counting on this also coming to me when she decides it won't do for her main machine. Then we'll get her a Core based laptop after the holidays.
No Apple devices will be purchased.
They had better leave some hand sanitizer near the tablet.
What...you don't want to use the tablet after the guy that didn't wash his hands in the restroom? Where's your sense of adventure?
Brian Krzanich will kick off CES 2014 with a keynote address.
What do you make of this?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ces-2014-opening-night-keynote-203400821.html
BK better have something big to say/demo or in the words of Sonny Corleone in The Godfather, "I sure don't want him coming out of that restroom with just nothing (paraphrased for the web)!"
Let's hope the crappy 2014 guidance was a low baseline intended to allow us to "beat" like the rest of the crowd.
That's my perspective posted here:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=94408113
The leadership picked analyst day (and following a nice two month run up in the stock price) to bite-the-bullet and move down the baseline. Let the shareholders (which includes employees of course) take a short-term fall for what they believe is the only way to really move the price up over the next 18 months. And that 'way' is to beat expectations over at least 3-4 consecutive quarters. It's really only after about 3 'beats' that analysts start 'believing' your story and only then do you get on the conviction buy list.
The chart looks like a smiley face.
Let's just hope it's not this:
Looks the 50 MA will survive another test today although I was in doubt most of the morning. There will no doubt be a couple of 'head fakes' over the next week or so where the big money holders of the stock try to lure in retail investors by bidding the stock up quickly in the morning only so they can sell big blocks of their holdings at slightly higher prices. This ALWAYS occurs like clockwork after every down draft following some bad news.
Nice price point of $599 on a traditional laptop with Core i5 and 8GB from HP. But I'm posting it for the chuckle I got looking at the 4th photo below the main photo on the page.
http://www.bestbuy.com/site/hp-envy-touchsmart-sleekbook-15-6-touch-screen-laptop-8gb-memory-750gb-hard-drive-modern-silver/1732095.p?id=1219061843539&skuId=1732095#tab=overview
Nice link thanks. I just reviewed it once but will study in detail tomorrow morning.
regarding 'but with every metric FLAT for 2014' I have a perspective here and some questions based on nothing more than my own common sense (which is not always reliable):
Is it better for a company's stock for their revenue/earnings forecasts to be 'spot on' with their actual results (with the usual beat by a penny or miss by two pennies etc.) or is it better for the company's stock to beat earnings estimates significantly quarter after quarter (ala IBM some years ago)? I think we can agree that the latter scenario is what moves the stock price. The former scenario is the existing position that Intel finds itself in. They are the best in the business at forecasting and managing capacity and their road-maps to consistently be 'spot on' with their revenue, ASP and earnings forecasts. Now how does a company get out of this position so that 'they can move' their stock price needle? Perhaps the easiest way is to lower the bar and not just a little. The bar needs to be low enough so that it can be easily cleared for four straight quarters or more! Is it likely that Stacy is willing to take a short term stock price hit to be able to get the bar much lower? Is it legal (fiduciary resp. etc.) for Stacy to predict a flat 2014 if he actually believes there will be growth? Or is it more likely that Stacy is predicting flat revenues and we will get four straight quarters of beat by a penny or miss by a penny (and margins up by 2% or down 3%)?
I often wondered that, thanks for clarifying. As a follow-up question though, are there additional key learnings that occur as part of the back-and-forth interaction between manufacturing engineers and design engineers that couldn't be obtained from a pure reverse engineering of the silicon itself?
Looking for some TA experts to chime in. My take is that INTC is looking for support here at the 50 day MA (around 23.70) and that failing there the 200 day MA at around 23 is the next shoe to drop. Thoughts on whether we hold at the 50 day or pass on thru to the other side of 23?
The analyst day presentations have been excellent so far. My Nov short calls are currently down -235% and my Jan 15 short calls are down -115% and I'm very very happy!
Ordered two Dell Venue Pro 8 tablets today. One for me and one for my Dad. Unfortunately I was too late, he just went and bought an iPad today. Dang!
It seems you clearly have an anti-Intel agenda which is fine but some of your observations show your own out-of-touchness.
so Intel is setting up its own stores and presumably going to run them at a loss?
First the article is clear that these are pop-up store fronts ONLY for the holiday season not a long-term cash drain.
Anyway I guess Intel has a bag of cash and it is worth them losing a little money if they learn a lesson about what customers really want
Secondly large corporations have what's known as an 'advertising budget'. The marketing folks attempt to spend those advertising dollars in the best way possible to promote the company's products. Be it expensive TV spots, web ads on google or magazine spreads in PC magazine etc. you could consider it ALL spending out of the big bag of cash that ALL companies have. Intel marketing has apparently decided that pop-up 'marketing' store fronts for the holiday season are as a good way to promote the companies products as these traditional methods. We will see.
Lenovo appears to be continuing it's move away from Intel with these new tablets (it was phones last month). I'll wait for reviews of these to see if performance is acceptable or lags bay trail tablets significantly. As an investor this is significant in my opinion.
the features and price point on this HP tablet make MS look silly with the Surface 2. what is MS thinking and what will they do as they watch these and the Venue Pro start selling.
Quite possible although Nov 29 max pain appears to be around 24.50 so the price could still move towards that. But if you have the Nov 16 expry you're probably safe. Coincidentally I was shopping for calls to sell at the 24 strike when your post came through.
How should we expect Analyst Day to address the competitive landscape with regard to MediaTek etc.? Intel doesn't usually announce road-map changes on analyst day do they?
My reasons are probably different from yours but I will also never buy any Apple gear.
Disclaimer: I own an iPhone 4S that was a gift from my son who worked for Apple at the time but no longer does so he probably won't give me any more gifts from them :)
I am short covered calls (nov $24's) on 1/4 of my INTC position.
I am also short the Nov 24 calls on a 1/8 of my position. I will not buy them back and will keep the premium and let the shares go.
I've become more comfortable letting shares go since it allows me to be more aggressive shorting the puts in my next cycle. So I'll either get the shares back at say 23 or I'll get the premium from selling both the call and the put.
This strategy will remain successful until the share price starts to run away from us. I don't know about you but that's something I no longer fear will happen.
I missed selling the Dec 21 call at strike of 25 for .29 by a penny.
I think we'll be settling in here (around 23.50 to 24.50) for a while now until some catalyst comes. An upward revision to Q4 revenue would do it but based on the limited availability of BYT and HSW models, I'm no longer expecting that.
Right, so the two-handedness makes me lean toward the 8 inch bay trail device. I know it sounds ridiculous but I can't tell you how many times my laptop has been only an arm's length away but I have opted to read my message boards and email using my phone since I don't have to balance the device in my lap or use two hands (one hand is usually resting on the remote control or close to it). Yes I know this is what's wrong with America :)
Should we call this the couch-potato requirement?
Absolutely, it's the couch-potato use case and here's a reference design for this behavior.
Venue Pro 11 vs. 8 inch tablets
I'd be more interested in a Core based tablet/detachable that could double as a real workhorse laptop but I'm concerned about losing the lightweight 'on the couch' use case of the smaller tablets. I'm currently using my iPhone for all 'on the couch' browsing and consumption but I can see that a tablet would be much better for this unless it is too heavy or I can't hold it in one hand etc.
Has anyone found the 11 inch core tablets too heavy or cumbersome for 'on the couch' web consumption?
Intel wouldn't have won the iPhone 5 socket even
if 1) it had a phone SKU with the BYT cpu ready, 2) it was 30%
faster than it is, and 3) the A7 was 30% slower than it is.
So what is the underlying reason that an Intel part can not make it into an Apple phone (assuming they had one that hit on all of the above vectors)?
I think many (myself included) are closely watching the reviews and threaded discussions on the battle between these three:
Lenovo Miix2 (not available yet) vs Dell Venue 8 Pro vs Asus T100
If a clear winner emerges in terms of quality and customer satisfaction I will be buying four units of one of these for Christmas presents (oh and one of those for my own). So I appreciate everyone's comments on these. I also spent a lot of time last night reading that threaded discussion you posted.
Every time I call my electrician to come by and give me a price on a new project at my house, we always discuss an appointment time that won't conflict with the other electricians that are bidding. I only know one electrician and wouldn't think of using anyone else.
They are profiting now.
I think he means a spike up in profitability that could materially affect EPS. Intel has been profiting from graphics since the early days of the AGP chipset back around 97-98 (I still have my tee-shirt!).
There is something good underlying this move up - finally!
I believe the major factor underlying this move up is that the analyst community has finally come to believe that the client PC downtrend is close to the end. Now there is other 'goodness' that is surfacing in Intel's product mix that is also factoring in but the cannibalization story has to have an end and we are close to the point where that story has run its course.
Of course all along many on this board have realized that new form factors have been blurring the lines of the traditional PC client business yet the cannibalization story and the end to Intel's traditional business model is really 'fun' for these analysts and TV pundits to talk about. But that story is a tired one now and those that act early to be in the stock as the new product mix unfolds will be rewarded.
Article is a quick read on TA for INTC. Good advice on using multiple technical indicators rather than those to-the-penny panic cries.
With its higher lows in August and again in early October, INTC slightly undercut its 200-day simple moving average both times but held its November 2012 uptrend line all the while. This shows the importance of using multiple technical indicators and looking for confluence areas rather than to-the-penny absolute levels.
From here, INTC looks poised to break past its multi-month resistance line and move back toward its 52-week high from June and beyond.
Action to Take -->
-- Buy INTC at the market price
-- Set stop-loss order at $23
-- Set initial price target at $28 for a potential 16% gain in eight to 12 weeks
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/intels-due-16-pop-chart-120000647.html
As expected it appears that Dadi Perlmutter is on his way out of Intel.
If so, what could be the quid pro quo to Intel from Microsoft?
Perhaps a long term deal to outfit Surface 2 with Bay Trail/Cherry Trail and Surface Pro 2 with Haswell/Broadwell and an end to the RT.
This wouldn't surprise me especially given the way the phrase 'Android tablets at $99 price points' was used by both Paul and Brian in the last few earnings calls. To me the phrase had more the feel of a wake-up call (threat) to MS more than an announcement to the analysts during the call. Not sure if others got that impression though. Perhaps Intel's strategy could be to pair leading edge processors with Windows and then 'waterfall' older skus to Android devices in order keep higher ASPs. At least until Android and ChromeOS require leading edge performance (which doesn't sound like the case yet from what others have said).
mas...Once INTC breaks 26 for good i.e. for long and consistently enough then that will become a solid wall of support from which much higher prices can be reached again.
Just curious as to your one year price target for Intel since you have been very bullish as of late. When you say 'much higher prices can be reached again' are you thinking 28-30 range or higher than that?