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Monday, November 25, 2013 1:03:26 PM
Is it better for a company's stock for their revenue/earnings forecasts to be 'spot on' with their actual results (with the usual beat by a penny or miss by two pennies etc.) or is it better for the company's stock to beat earnings estimates significantly quarter after quarter (ala IBM some years ago)? I think we can agree that the latter scenario is what moves the stock price. The former scenario is the existing position that Intel finds itself in. They are the best in the business at forecasting and managing capacity and their road-maps to consistently be 'spot on' with their revenue, ASP and earnings forecasts. Now how does a company get out of this position so that 'they can move' their stock price needle? Perhaps the easiest way is to lower the bar and not just a little. The bar needs to be low enough so that it can be easily cleared for four straight quarters or more! Is it likely that Stacy is willing to take a short term stock price hit to be able to get the bar much lower? Is it legal (fiduciary resp. etc.) for Stacy to predict a flat 2014 if he actually believes there will be growth? Or is it more likely that Stacy is predicting flat revenues and we will get four straight quarters of beat by a penny or miss by a penny (and margins up by 2% or down 3%)?
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