Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
TSP Addresses Furlough Questions
The TSP recently issued this guidance on the treatment of accounts should employees be furloughed due budgetary reasons.
What would be the effect of a Government shutdown on the TSP?
A Federal Government shutdown would not affect the TSP. Neither the TSP nor the Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board receives annual appropriations from the Congress. Since the TSP is not dependent on Congressional appropriations, a Government shutdown would not affect the TSP; the TSP would continue to operate “business as usual.”
Will my TSP investments be affected?
What about disbursements?
Investment activity will continue. Share prices and account balances will continue to be updated each business day, and loans and withdrawals will continue to be disbursed. What happens to my contributions? Because you are not paid during a furlough, your TSP contributions will stop, and, if you are a FERS employee, you will not receive agency contributions during this time.
Can I take a TSP loan while I’m furloughed?
Yes. By law, a TSP participant may take a TSP loan any time before separation. 5 U.S.C. § 8433(g)(1). The TSP has adopted an administrative rule that provides that TSP participants must be in a pay status in order to take a TSP loan. 5 C.F.R. § 1655.2(b). The TSP adopted this rule because it generally requires TSP participants to agree to repay their loans through payroll deduction. 5 C.F.R. § 1655.12(b). The first payment is due on or before the 60th day following the loan issue date. 5 C.F.R. § 1655.14(c).
Since shutdowns are rare occurrences and are typically of short duration, the TSP’s Executive Director has determined that it is in the best interest of TSP participants to interpret the requirement that participants be in a pay status to mean that a break in pay due to a Government shutdown does not disqualify one from TSP loan eligibility. A short-term break in pay status would still allow participants to commence payment by payroll deduction within the required 60 days of the loan issue date. If a shutdown were to extend beyond 60 days, participants would still be responsible for making loan payments (see next question).
What happens to my loan payments while I’m furloughed?
If you have an outstanding loan and you are furloughed, your loan payments will stop because they are deducted from your pay. Loans are not considered in default until the participant has missed more than 2½ payments. If you miss a loan payment (or two) as a result of the furlough, you always have the option to make direct payments to the TSP using the Loan Payment Coupon available in the Forms & Publications section on the TSP website. Otherwise, your loan term will be extended or, if you have requested the maximum loan term, you may have a balloon payment at the end of the loan term. If you miss more than 2½ payments, we will notify you by mail that you must mail in a personal check for the “cure” amount to get your loan back on track.
Does my agency have to send in a Form TSP-41 notifying the TSP that I have been furloughed?
Your agency should not send a Form TSP-41 to the TSP during a Federal Government shutdown. A shutdown is a rare occurrence and is typically of short duration. The Form TSP-41 is intended for participants who are being placed on extended leave without pay, e.g., due to illness, military furlough, maternity leave, etc. It is not practical for the agencies to complete and submit Forms TSP-41 for all of their furloughed employees who have TSP loans (both at the beginning of the furlough and at the end), and it is not practical for the TSP to process these forms.
Can the Government take money from the TSP to resolve the financial situation?
No, the money in the TSP is held in trust for its participants. Neither Congress nor the Administration can take money from your TSP account.
Last time, I said that we had some disturbing readings from ISEE, the Message Board poll, the FL/FS, and Investors Intel. I viewed that as short-term Bearish, though I advised that such extreme readings rarely implied an extreme move down. We got some downside, and, as expected, support held and we recouped most of the weakness. No real damage has been done to breadth nor the trend, but momentum continues to be Bearish. ISEE is now flashing a ST Buy, but we may trade down first, then up. I have to think that we can get more of a reaction to the downside from some of the readings I'm seeing. I'm short-term Bearish, but we'll remember that we've likely got more strength coming no matter what.
They will not be affected. I saw some intel on that yesterday.
Last time, I said that I had to still be at least a little concerned about Hulbert's numbers and Ticker-Sense, and I really (still) have trouble ignoring the NAAIM sell, despite it's age. Interestingly, the market is no higher than it was when we got the signal. It's still in force. Today, we have some disturbing readings. First, we got a big jump from ISEE which is a pretty good sell signal. We also had a ton of Bulls in the Message Board poll and a FL/FS Sell with lots of partially long Bulls. That's short-term Bearish. Investors Intel reported a higher Bull/Bear ratio than we've seen in many years and a big jump at that. In context, this is short-term Bearish, though such extreme readings rarely imply an extreme move down. I'm short-term Bearish, but we'll remember that we've likely got more strength coming no matter what.
Last time, I said that while we were seeing a bit of weakness, I seriously doubted it would persist. So far this morning, it's not. Still, I have to be at least a little concerned about Hulbert's numbers and Ticker-Sense, and I really have trouble ignoring the NAAIM sell though it, like the FL/FS Sell, is getting a bit aged. This market feels heavy, and it makes me feel like it's heading down to test 1220-1240, but I've got zero indicator support for that. I can't rule it out, but it's just not an odds on play. What we're going to do is trade it very nimble and quick, understanding that we've likely got more strength coming no matter what.
Last time, I said that Ithe first week in April is typically pretty strong and liquidity was obviously great, BUT TSP was on a Sell and more importantly, NAAIM was also flashing a ST Sell. Those two signals tend to be pretty darned good pretty darned quickly and so far, we're seeing a bit of weakness. Will it persist? I seriously doubt it. Then again we also have a lot of new Bullishness in Hulbert's numbers and Ticker-Sense is all bulled up too. Can we get a hard shot down? I can't rule that out. Today or tomorrow are likely to be our best shot for shellacking and on that we should be accumulating as the pre-tax-time upward bias implies that we've got more strength coming.
Last week, I said that I was not liking how long the market took to turn my best trend indicator up, as it made me worry about the quality of the rally. I was bullish, but looking for some trouble. We got less trouble than I expected. This week, we have a load of seasonal strength. The first week in April is typically pretty strong. Liquidity is obviously great. On the other hand, TSP is on a Sell and more importantly, NAAIM is also flashing a ST Sell. Those signals tend to be pretty darned good pretty darned quickly. I'm pretty sure we're going to get a down draft one day and I suspect that it will be Tuesday. I think we have to be accumulating on that weakness too. We've got more strength coming. My call for the week is again for a rally early on Monday and a slight fade late and down hard on Tuesday, and then chop higher into the end of the week.
Last time, I said that "Everybody" knows that the last days of March are weak and that the first of every month is usually up, and that folks have been positioning on the last day of the month in order to snag what they can on the 1st. They got them last month. Will they try it again this month? So far in GLOBEX, the answer is no. The thing is, they may bag all the opening buyers with a gap up and then trade it down. ISEE was on a Buy yesterday, but today is on a ST Sell. The FL/FS Sell is still in force. More importantly, NAAIM showed a marked and significant shift to Bullishness and with no shorts and a ST Sell, it could be that we get some selling today or Monday. TSP Talk reported a ton of Bulls and few Bears too. Given that momentum has shifted down, I have to think that the market should see some weakness today or early next week.
Last time, I said that the ISEE ST Sell the FL/FS 2X Sell, and the $-weighted options were all a prescription for some selling despite the gap up. Well, we didn't get much weakness. When you think you have the key to the lock, they change the lock and I think that more and more folks are looking at seasonal and monthly patterns. "Everybody" knows that the last days of March are weak and that the first of every month is usually up. Folks have been positioning on the last day of the month in order to snag what they can on the 1st. I wonder if they're going to bag them a bit today and tomorrow... The $-weighted Sells still impact today's trading and ISEE is still on a Sell even as we have a ST Buy too. The FL/FS Sell with so many partially long Bulls is also a prescription for selling today. Maybe we get a shot down and then a rally tomorrow? I still think we have to be accumulating where ever we can where risk and technicals allow.
Yeah, I think it's a contrarian indicator now. LOL
The Seven Sentinels gave an official buy signal yesterday as NYMO finally hit a fresh 28 day trading high.
Last time, I said that I was a bit bearish thanks to end of March statistical weakness as well as issues with Libya and the reactors in Japan. I was also starting to worry that the Bullishness had risen a bit quickly in places. I still am, but no real weakness showed up yesterday. Today, we look higher too, but the ISEE ST Sell is likely to get right today and now we have another FL/FS Sell and the $-weighted options are suggesting that dumb money is paying up for calls. This is a prescription for some selling. I still think we have to be accumulating where ever we can where risk and technicals allow. The 1st is very likely to be higher and March is running out of time.
Last time, I said that I was not really liking how long the market was taking to turn my best trend indicator up. It called the quality of the rally into question. I was also concerned that the MACD had crossed up, which is a "Best Fade" Sell. The ISEE was on a ST Buy, offsetting some of that risk but now we're on a ST Sell. Statistically (and correcting my comments yesterday), the end of March tends to be weak and while the first always has an upward bias, it would not surprise me to see some weakness here pronto, as things are iffy in Libya and at the reactors in Japan. I'm also starting to worry that the Bullishness has risen a bit quickly in places. TickerSense is flashing a Sell and newsletter advisors are getting Bullish again fast. Bloggers are very Bulled up. I still think we have to be accumulating where ever we can where risk and technicals allow, but I'd really like to see some selling and some fear before I get too aggressive.
Last week, I said that the market was awash with liquidity and the excuses for selling off were diminishing by the day. I was thinking that we might get some bad news from Libya that would pull the market back, but so far, it's not having much effect. I'm not really liking how long this market is taking to turn my best trend indicator up. That's making me worry about the quality of this rally and we MAY need to test the lows. Near term, we have two problems: the MACD has crossed up and that's a "Best Fade" Sell. Then ISEE took a very big jump and that's a ST Sell too, but to make things interesting, it also took a big drop on Friday which is a ST Buy. I think we have to be accumulating where ever we can where risk and technicals allow. My call for the week is again for a rally early on Monday and a slight fade late and down hard on Tuesday into Wednesday and then up hard into the end of the week. It is the end of the month and quarter and there's a higher bias for this time of month and year.
The Seven Sentinels have now issued 3 unconfirmed buy signals in as many days. The only thing I'm waiting for to make it an official signal is for NYMO to hit a 28 day trading high. And it's only about 8 points or so from that target. I'm looking for volatile action this week, but I'm also looking for more upside from where the S&P currently sits. Probably by weeks end.
The Seven Sentinels have issued two "unconfirmed" buy signals in as many days. A confirmed signal is still about 15 points higher on the S&P. My take? Start buying dips or just jump in. End of quarter window dressing, liquidity, and the fact that more technical systems are flipping to buy conditions as we go higher make the upside much more likely than the downside as far as an intermediate term trend go. Headline news will probably continue to cause volatility, but the trend appears to have reversed for now.
Last time, I said that the ST ISEE Sell and the FL/FS 2X Sell both suggested more weakness, which is exactly what we got. It was, as suspected, a decent buy, as our day-trading Premium subscribers saw. Today, we're back at resistance if not poking through it. The sentiment is iffy. Were it not for the massive liquidity, I'd be somewhat more Bearish. As it is, I'm really open to about anything. I continue to note, however: Technicals such as breadth and the 21-day and our best trend indicator are all still negative. This could be a problem. Still, I don't think the Bulls have too much to worry about here and that even short-term, below today's lows has to be seen in order for anything big to get going.
Last time, I said that our technicals hadn't confirmed the turn so it was reasonably likely that we'd test a bit. Yesterday may have begun that process. As we said yesterday, rarely do they not revisit the scene of the crime, and that crime is somewhat lower. The ST ISEE Sell and the FL/FS 2X Sell both suggests more weakness today. I think that's a good bet and I think that it will probably be a buy. One thing to note: Technicals such as breadth and the 21-day and our best trend indicator are all still negative. Were the world not awash in liquidity, we would be short and perhaps adding. I'm going to default to looking for bullish resolutions until we turn down in earnest (Bear Market) or until QE2 ends.
I sold my 25% I fund holding yesterday, and reduced my C and S to 25% each today. Now sitting at 50/25/25 GCS. I do not expect to reduce my stock holdings beyond that level at this time. We were due for a pullback after the last 3 days, so today's weakness is not a surprise and we may even test support over the next few days.
This is also the end of quarter, so that could come into play, but I wouldn't base my decisions on that alone. Market risk is still high.
Last time, I said that our call was for a rally early on Monday and a slight fade late, then down a bit on Tuesday into Wednesday and then up into the end of the week. We were looking to be Buyers on weakness. Our technicals haven't confirmed this turn so it's reasonably likely that we'll test a bit. On the other hand, the big shift among NAAIM and Hulbert's numbers are Bullish as all get out. Rarely do they not revisit the scene of the crime, and that crime is somewhat lower. ISEE and the VIX are saying "down today" and they're probably right. I'd not go hog wild but I'd be doing a bit of buying on any weakness.
Last week, I said that we had the bare minimum required for a completed A-B-C correction and that if we could get a bit more Bearishness, we'd be buyers. Well, we finally got some more Bears at NAAIM which actually flashed a ST Buy. There was also a lot of hedging going on. Now, I'm hopeful we can get some selling, based upon some of the other sentiment that I'm seeing but it's by no means a lock. The market is awash with liquidity and the excuses for selling off are diminishing by the day. That said, I fear that we're going to get some bad news from Libya. That will probably pull this market back. If my favorite bottom-spotting stochastic is right, that's a buy. Basically pick your spot and start accumulating. We'll start buying shortly too and will advise of any model change by special alert. My call for the week is for a rally early on Monday and a slight fade late. Down a bit on Tuesday into Wednesday and then up into the end of the week.
I started to ramp up the TIPS portion of my portfolio a few weeks ago.
Good luck to us all. :o)
I took my losses on the front end, so I'm still making up ground. But big news headlines just keep coming, so I suspect we'll be in for a wild ride.
Just like in poker. I pushed all my chips into the middle of the table. 35/40/25 CSI
Last time, I said that I was still worried that we didn't have nearly enough Bears to buy based upon sentiment. We did have a good buy from ISEE and we got a repeat T-4 "Buy", both of which implied a possible low. WE advised that one way or another we were likely to be done with the correction shortly. I advised to "pick your spot". Late yesterday, NAAIM reported a big drop in Bullish exposure, both mean and median. That's a ST Buy. Those signals have been gold. I'm guessing that we'll try a test of some sort but I'm pretty sure the ultimate low for this correction is in. Get long on weakness. I suspect that the rest of the sentiment will catch up after we're up another couple %. Libya is turning around and while the Japanese can backslide on the nuke front, the worst is likely over.
Although the SS went to a sell a couple of days ago, I went all in. There's so much news driven price movement that longer term traders need to be very careful with TA until things settle down. I seriously doubt the powers that be are going to let this thing fall apart. Not now. The fed has even admitted intervening in the currency markets this week.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_FED_INTERVENTION?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-03-18-09-01-18
I have been saying that if and when the Japanese get their nuclear issues sorted, this market was going to scream. I was worried that we didn't have nearly enough Bears to buy based upon sentiment, but we also knew that the "Powers That Be" (PTB) don't want a crash and that they have been proved to be unafraid to step into the market. They stepped in once and after some early weakness last night, either they or the regular participants have taken the market up substantially off the lows and on the day. Is the low in? It sure could be. It's just a guess in here. We didn't get any buys from the major polls. ISEE however is very supportive. We also got a repeat T-4 "Buy" reading which might mark the low. The wild card here is Japan. If another problem surfaces, we'll trade back down. The good news is that one way or another we're likely to be done with this correction shortly. I think it's a "pick your spot" type of thing.
Seven Sentinels finally rolled over to a sell Tuesday. I've had two confirmed sells the last two trading days.
Last time, I said that if and when the Japanese get their nuclear issues sorted, this market was going to scream. Rationally, we understand that we don't have nearly enough Bears to buy based upon sentiment, but we also know that the "Powers That Be" (PTB) don't want a crash and that they have been proved to be unafraid to step into the market. My feeling was and is that they want the market down so that they and their allies can re-load and so that there are more Bears, but they don't want anything too crazy on the down side and they don't want any weakness to imply economic problems domestically. My guess is that the second the foreign excuses go away, the market will rally, irrespective of the domestic news. Yesterday, we bought support and today I think we should buy any pullback. I think that Japan will be Nuke-safe by Friday and that we'll be ready to rally by then, especially with options expiration coming. I'm OK with ST shorting thanks to the FL/FS 2X Sell, but I'm thinking long is easier.
Targets are not my forte, but I do have a hard time seeing this market falling apart with so much liquidity being pumped in. I was 50% cash until yesterday and went all in at the close, so I'm of the belief we are nearing at least a short term bottom. I'm also inclined to think that when this market decides to turn again, we could hit new highs.
Eventually, the fat lady will sing for this market, but I don't think we're there yet.
Last time, I said that while Japan was weighing upon this market, it wasn't likely to be a major factor in the market for much longer. Well, I guess we need to define "much longer". I'm OK claiming a day or so. I may amend this, too, as they can't seem to get their nuclear problems under control. I think that they will, but I've already been wrong once. Still, if and when they do, this market is going to scream. So far, we don't have nearly enough Bears to buy based upon sentiment, but we do know that the "Powers That Be" (PTB) dont' want a crash and we know that they aren't afraid to step in. They may want the market down but they want it orderly. I'm pretty sure that they'll buy support and so should we. If the sentiment gets Bearish enough, we'll probe long, and if not we'll wait for a turn or for good news out of Japan. Look long at support levels when we're oversold.
Last week, I said that near term, the market sure looked like it ought to trade lower and that there was plenty of sentiment supporting that. We allow for a bit of selling, as such was, in our opinion, likely desired in order for major players to reload. We advised, however, that weakness was not a lay up, despite our reliable Sells. We figured that the best play was to look for bounces at support and if we can get something that looks like a completed A-B-C correction, to get long for the last run in this market--assuming that the run ends in June. We now have the bare minimum required for a completed A-B-C correction. If we could get a bit more Bearishness, or some other excuse, I'll be a buyer for the next (or final) leg up for this rally. Currently, Japan is weighing upon this market. That is not likely to be a major factor in the market for much longer. If there is nothing else, we can head higher. I'd just like to see some more Bears. The good news is that Friday brought an improvement in the cumulative breadth. My call for the week is that they take it down early on Monday and then rally it into Tuesday but then try a test on Wednesday and then rally it Thursday and Friday options expiration.
I was on travel this week and unable to post too much. All my premium services are flashing warnings, but the market has not quite rolled over on an intermediate term basis. Since the Fed is still pumping I think it makes sense to hold some level of stock exposure. I'm 50/50 cash/stocks myself.
Last time, I said that we should be very observant. because if this market was still healthy and just correcting, it ought to stabilize, if not come much of the way back. We said that if it didn't, then our caution flags should go way up. Our caution flags are indeed way up. We're one day from fully confirming a Down trend. The good news is that when you fully confirm a down trend, it is almost assuredly time for a rally. There's some other good news. ISEE took a big fall into Buy territory and with such a big shift, it's a strong ST Buy. Other options data support, too. TSP is also pretty Bullish for next week. Some might worry at the FL/FS 2X Sell, but we would remind you of thek Fearless Forecasters uncanny ability at positioning heavily in the right direction at turns. Certainly there's risk here, but the FL/FS is as Bullish as it is Bearish. I don't believe that the powers that be suddenly decided that a hands-off policy for the market makes sense. They're going to stabilize this market. They will probably rally it. The minimum criteria for a completed correction have been met.
Last time, I said that even in a down trend, support was/is working, and that that was a sign of sponsorship/ample liquidity. Despite deterioration in the trend and technicals, I advised that that support was a buy, thanks to the ISEE Buy. We didn't even make it down to support before bouncing smartly. I'm STILL ok with the A-B-C correction scenario. I'm always nervous about the down side in here, but we do have a down trend. I'm also very confident about buying support. Unless they trap a bunch of amateurs in an obvious set up pattern, the market is highly likely to bounce at every support level. Sentiment buys should be very good in this market.
Last week, I said we had an unconfirmed IT Sell but that breadth was nowhere near confirming. We had all manner of ST Sell signals from the sentiment but we also had a few near Buys. The market managed some pretty respectable rallies even as it was pretty weak. This is really typical. We're about to prove our value as sentiment and trading experts for the past 2 decades. Sentiment is really just a proxy for READY liquidity. That is, money or inventory (of stock) that is poised to be thrust upon or into the market. So, excessive pessimism implies lots of shorting, and lots of shorts represent a pool of ready demand for stocks, as it is an easy decision to cover a profitable short position. Similarly, too much optimism implies that all excess cash has been deployed to the stock market and that any need or desire to replenish that sideline cash will require an introduction of excess supply to the market. This is why sentiment works, by and large. Now, however, we have another vector working on the market: Liquidity (aka "POMO"). It matters much less if everyone is Bulled up because while much capital has been deployed, there are billions more coming almost every day. Similarly, it matters much more if everyone gets Beared up, as this only adds to future demand for stocks. If our interpretation is correct, this is what we're in for until June, unless they extend the QE2. We will know that the street is beginning to discount the end of this liquidity by a deterioration in breadth Right now, we are a long way from a Sell from cumulative breadth, so until that changes we're in for a generally higher bias.
Near term, the market sure looks like it ought to trade lower and there's plenty of sentiment supporting that. We can allow for a bit of selling, as it's likely desired in order for major players to reload and a bit of bad news tonight or tomorrow might ben the catalyst. That said, weakness is not a lay up, despite our reliable Sells. Mondays tend to be up. The best play is to look for bounces at support and if we can get something that looks like a completed A-B-C correction, to get long for the last run in this market--assuming that the run ends in June. It may not. My call for the week is that they rally it early on Monday, and try to take it back down late, and into Tuesday but closing higher. Wednesday should bring pullback into Thursday and Friday should be up.
Last time, I said that we still had a bit of juice for more rally thanks to the ISEE reading. I figured that after some more rally they'd take it down. I was actually fairly confident that strength wouldn't hold thanks to a 2X Sell from the FL/FS and the plethora of partially long Bulls. I even thought that we might take out 128500. This was due to the damaged technical picture. I was not, however, looking for any real lasting weakness. I must admit that in 30 years of trading, I've never seen a rally like that out of technical condition that we had yesterday. Those types of rallies come from either very oversold and highly Beared-up conditions or from technically healthy markets. This was neither. Yet it rallied like they weren't making any more stock. So we have a very changed picture. Excessive optimism is of limited utility for trading. Excess cash trumps it. We can take sells, if they are perfect set ups, but until QE2 is done or breadth deteriorates markedly, we need to just take buys. Today, we do have a good set up from the sentiment, and there may be some Buyers' fatigue, but with "Free Money Monday" coming, we need to be buyers at support.
Last time, I said that the ISEE ST Buy was still in force and that we had another, so a bounce was likely in the cards, but I didn't see much pessimism, and was holding to my scenario of an "a-b-c" correction, with us starting "c" down shortly. We were and are concerned that there was no pessimism in the options data, save in the SPX and in the past, that had indicated smart money shorting ahead of a planned decline. So we rallied a bit lamely yesterday, but we still have a bit of juice for more rally thanks to yesterday's ISEE reading. That said, we've also got a 2X Sell from the FL/FS and there are a ton of partially long Bulls. We're up in GLOBEX but I'm pretty sure they're going to try to shake the new Bulls loose with a fast decline. I'm strongly inclined to look for a pullback and I don't think we'll be done with this decline until we take out 128500. We need weaker breadth to confirm an IT Sell.
Uh-oh...
Last time, I said that while there was an upward bias for the 1st, there are a lot of Bulls and I suspected that most of the buying was done. We were on two FL/FS Sells and that was enough to take the market down, bagging all the late buyers. You could see the "front running" and we should have seen the decline coming. Now, the ISEE ST Buy is still in force and we have another, so a bounce is likely in the cards, but I didn't see much pessimism at all in the options. My scenario of an "a-b-c" correction (with us starting "c" down) is looking pretty good for now. My read here is that we can fall for a bit longer but as soon as we complete a corrective pattern, we'll likely rally, perhaps as a resolution to the Libyan issue is found. One disturbing note. There was almost no pessimism in the options data, save in the SPX. In the past, this has indicated smart money shorting ahead of a planned decline. Be very careful on the long side here. We're one down day from confirming an IT down trend.