A swing trader with a bit of day trading for education and profit
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I watched the short clip. Sadly this is the type of people leading us.
I used to scan the public charts pretty often looking for ideas. One of the two guys I really liked had it on his charts as MACD 80,90,10. I used that for a while as I was first getting started, but thought it was too slow. I tried several combinations, but settled on M65,90,10.
I remember when you were part of that Beta team. Boy that was a long time ago.
This is a terrible article that talks about the amount of T-Notes (2-10yr) and T-Bonds (>10yrs) that will be sold each month. Jan sales were about $ 308B. According to the table, Feb and March were $334B each. That annualizes to right at $4T a year, and one could easily conclude that with $36T in debt, all is good.
So I did a search and found the total numbers. The chart I found is interactive and very good, a link is below. So what is missing is the T-Bills (< 2 yr) and they are huge, in fact that are 86% of total treasury sells.
Bills Notes&Bonds Total
1Q24 2,071 327 2,398
Annu 24,852 3,924 28,776
% 86% 14%
We will see, in cash waiting for afternoon fireworks.
I use the factor for everything. It works for any dividend paying etf or stock. Keep in mind that each time a dividend is paid a new factor is created going backward in time. The new factor is used back to the last time a dividend was paid and then the two factors get multiplied together for data prior to that date.
Okay I guess that all sounds confusing. Here is my 2023 file for SPY. I cut out the dates where the factor did not change. You can see that the factor multiplied by the previous factor going backwards gets smaller each time a dividend is paid.
Doesn't look like there is going to be much market movement until FMOC announcement.
Yes, but it is not a direct subtraction.
The close of BIL on 3/28 was 91.80. Then a dividend was paid on 4/1 of .4047, so all the previous data has to be adjusted by a factor.
Here's how the factor is calculated.
C = close day before dividend is paid
D = dividend paid the next day
factor = (C - D) / C
This makes the factor .99559, so the close of 3/28 gets adjusted to 91.80 * .99559 = 91.395. And all other closes get adjusted also.
This matches Stock Charts numbers. If you want to see the unadjusted numbers I sure you know you can put in "_BIL".
I don't got back and adjust all the other prior months because all the numbers would just factored by the same number, so the ratio would not change.
This was another good month for FLOT coming in at 6.64% APR and next month should be even better.
SGOV fell off this month compared to SWVXX, but it's easy of trade still makes it my go to etf for short term money parking and it avoids settlement issues.
I am keeping about 40% of my funds in SGOV or in etf's that I am trading. The balance (60%) is in FLOT and never gets traded.
Note that the "pre cls" for a given month is never the "close" for the previous month. Interest dividends are paid on the 1st, so that always adjusts history to account for the dividend.
This will take weeks before they can recover their supply chain. I hope they can survive. If they do, I suspect their insurance company will cancel them. My home insurance with very high in OK, mostly due to hail damage and the number of roofs they had to redo every year. And they pay way too much to the roofers.
I should have done more reshearch before I asked the question online. I fired up CS web site which they call "price". I then compared CS to TOS, price vs mark. They seemed to be the same.
I then click on the information box on CS for price and got this pop up. It seems to be right for both web sites. Not to hard to find for a very short time where price or mark is outside the B/A.
TOS using the term "mark" for what I assume is the latest trade price. Does TDA use this same term or other platforms?
Inflation just nailed my car insurance. I pay semi-annually. My new bill is up 19.2% from 6 months ago and a whopping 27.4% from a year ago. I am so glad inflation is only 3%+. What a joke, every new bill I open is up at least 25% from a year ago.
This is going to take this economy down big time. I really think we could easily see 10% interest rates. Inflation is a monster and is not going away.
Futures just opened just slightly higher than close. Long way to open, but a good sign I would say.
The answer is yes and no. Yes because it can show 4am to 8pm, no because it only will show data for about 2 1/2 days. But it works for me. I like trading the the 15min ext (extended) chart.
As you can see I got in late Thur and rode Fri rise. Still long as futures were flat into the 8pm shut down. I do almost no trading pre-market, but I am trading AH all the time.
I have been playing the chart pretty conservatively, but I am starting to get more aggressive. Thru had a very nice wave 3 setup about 11am, great place to enter.
Chart is now pretty topped out, so expecting a sell signal Monday and what I expect to be another small reset.
I think I have sworn off trading BOIL/KOLD at least 3 times. It is a tough one for sure. Thought I would give it another try. In KOLD 70.18early this morning.
Good call, I did nothing also for SPXL or TQQQ. I do have small positions in IJR and IWC.
so far today's bar is above 9ma, but could be red. Then what?
No clue what happens from here to EOD. Just have to wait.
I decided not to wait. I had never heard of graphene, but the possibilities are huge. This is going to change everything having to do with computers. It has been in development since 2001 so they are a long way down the path of understanding and they have successfully made a semiconductor. I think we will be hearing a lot about this in the future. Thanks for the heads up.
I will watch later
For BOIL it seems to me that that buy signal is coming pretty late. BOIL is already up 16%+. I am still not trading it, but I am watching again. Of course if it runs up another 20%, then no problem.
Good chance that is going to happe today.
Correct
I am less than 1% away on my SPY chart from a long trigger. Have set up buy stops.
QQQ is still about 3% away.
Being more aggressive in my SmAcc with 60m buys.
I do the majority of my buying EOD (end of day), the close.
TSLA is now down 46% from the recent high. I would say that is not good at all for MUSK. EV market is fading fast. Seems everyone is shifting to driverless EV market, which I have my doubts about also. I am not about to get into one.
Was not aware of WGMI. By my charts it is a daily buy EOD.
I have been doing a lot of work of late with my exits from swing trading SPY and QQQ. Exit too early and get whipped as the market continues to soar. Exit too late and lose a lot of unbooked gain. My exits used to be in the 2% range. They caused some whips, but more important it caused a lot of trading. I want to slow my trading down, but protect myself from major pull backs.
In general I see pullbacks in the 1.5-2% range normally correct pretty quick, buy once a pull back hits about 4%, it is usually serious and most of the time keeps going. At least that is my take and how I am proceeding with my trading plans.
The numbers below are the major pullbacks by year. The pullback is calculated from the highest high close to the lowest low close of the cycle.
SPY has now hit a -5.4% pb and QQQ -7.1%. 2022 was a big down year, so I would expect the pullbacks to be big and they were. 2023 was actually a very good year, so as one might expect, the pullbacks were muted in the 5%-10% area.
So what will 2024 be, a good year or a bad year? If it is going to be a good year, I would not be surprised if this pullback was about over. However, if it is going to be another bad year, but maybe not as bad as 2022, I would think we could see another 5% or more added on to the pullback.
At this point, the market is well below where I exited, so I am protected from any whip and expect my buy points coming up to be less that my exits, giving me the edge on the market that comes from swing trading.
SPY QQQ
2022 5 -12.9% -15.6% -12.2% -16.7% -7.2% 5 -21.1% -22.6% -13.7% -21.6% -8.3% -11.2%
2023 3 -7.5% -4.7% -9.0% 4 -7.4% -7.2% -6.2% -7.4%
2024 1 -5.4% 1 -7.1%
I plan to update my bitcoin files this weekend and I will try to answer your question at least for me in more detail.
Don't know how accurate this calculation but its a rough start. I am mining about .001 bitcoin a week. .004 x 65,000 = $260. I pay $149 a mo for electricity.
So with the halving I will be about BE. So the halving is really not a killer at all. I have no clue how much of the bitcoin that I am paid comes from transaction fees.
QQQ has now crossed over the 5% Pull Back line. SPY is close at -4.5%.
Got lots of time to get things done around the house.
I love this headline
IMF Warns Biden's Fiscal Profligacy Poses "Significant Risks" To Global Economy 'In Great Election Year'
Word of the day PROFLIGACY (never heard it before, not in any of my Beatrix Potter books)
profligacy [ prof-li-guh-see ] noun
* shameless dissoluteness.
* reckless extravagance.
* great abundance.
Next I had to look up dissolute since dissoluteness was used
Dissolute [ dis-uh-loot ] adjective
* indifferent to moral restraints; given to immoral or improper conduct; licentious; dissipated.
Synonyms: abandoned, wanton, debauched, loose, corrupt
Folks, that is the most elegant dress down I have see in a long time. Wow!! I guess the rest of the world is getting tired of our inflation driving their prices up also.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/imf-warns-bidens-fiscal-profligacy-poses-significant-risks-global-economy-great-election
Could be for sure. I am in cash and happy with that.
SPY now down -4.3% form hig close of 3/27.
QQQ down -4.6% for 3/22 close
Pull back could stall any time or keep going. We will see.
Speaking of sliding, market is going down again today. Monday was a big down day, Tuesday was a rest, and now today. This should bring out a lot more sellers wihich will just keep the move going for at least a while.
Glad to be in cash.