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Hi Guys,
Great move up in stock price for NGW. Trading at $.1617 U.S. taking out the near term up side resistance.
Now the next up side resistance points at $.1750 U.S. noted from Candelstick chart doji formed on 9/23/2019
See everyone there soon.
To me this move is a reaction to the implication of recent news stating that all product is sold out for weeks ahead. And the company is looking to add growing capacity very soon.
For me I am looking for a formal announcement of leasing a new indoor flower growing facility. This announcement in my guess opinion would be noted by the company at or before the next earning release. That being August 15, 2020.
That news would really move the stock price up to a new trading range. Depending upon the size of the new flower growth facility.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
HD I always try to keep my analysis and comments on the side of caution.
Remember this is real money that we are investing here.
In my thinking the point of these comments and posting is to bring together the best of many minds, and thoughts. To bring us all to a much more informed level.
Oh, one comment conservative one to be confirmed with the NGW mid August quarterly report. Is NGW has stated recently a gross profit at almost 40%. The companies mentioned in this sector at running at about 24%.
This is a very big and important point. Growing sales, and growing high profit ratios always equals higher valuations of stock prices.
We just need to give NGW the time it takes for its business plan to work thru.
Next year at this time we will all be very, very happy fellows.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
I am glad that you "fellows" read my posts. I am happy to share my rational analysis of NGW.
And I know that we will all do very well with our investments at these and higher costs basis.
As I have stated before NGW is very, very under the radar. And not many people in the investment community have paid or care to pay attention to this mico cap company.
But as the business model continues to develop for NGW. And they continue to meet their business objective, the market will take notice.
And along the journey with NGW we make money. And a lot of it if we invested at these depressed levels.
The investing market place does place market cap to sales valuations. And NGW even with the current share price of just under $.15 U.S. continues to have a very under valued market cap to sales value.
And in fact the point that NGW is currently producing a profit should give NGW a market cap valuation at the higher range.
So here is some numbers as requested BlueGreenPower…….. remember larger companies in the weed sector at trading at a much higher price to sales ratio.
Currently NGW has about 160,000,000 shares outstanding. And at a current price lets use $.15 U.S. for round numbers (we are not at this price now but NGW should be there before the next earning release) the total market cap is 160,000,000 x $.15 = $24,000,000
NGW stated recently that they had sales of over $3,000,000 in the second quarter.
And they have stated that they are shifting sales from bulk to preroll product. The preroll product will bring a higher gross sales and profit to NGW. In addition NGW stated that their extraction facility will start un by the end of the third quarter.
So, sales in my opinion should easily move to $1,250,000-1,500,000 per month.
Lets use $1,500,000 by early 2021. $1,500,000 x 12 months = $18,000,000 per year
At share price of $.15 market cap totaled $24,000,000/$18,000,000
= 1.3 times sales
So, guys we are grossly under valued at these levels. In my opinion we should easily see at market cap of 2.5 sales
This gives NGW at near term target price of $.30 by early next year.
This is the reason I continue to add to my position as funds become available.
GLTA...….questions comments, + or - are always welcome
Hi Guys,
Reality check...…….NGW volume approx. 200,000 shares per day
at $.13 U.S. about $26,000 U.S. dollars traded per day.
NGW is still very, very under the radar and not notice by the market players.
We need a couple of quarters of earnings reports. And we need some analysis coverage.
And we can easily add at these levels while we watch the story unfold.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
'didint' the mention of new products in 6 weeks tie directly into to the startup of the extraction facility. It would be a big leg up in the $$$ per month in sales if NGW could sell starting in September 2020. That would give them a very, very bullish sales the 4 th quarter.
Sounds very good to me!!
GLTA
Hi Guys,
We go to the weekly candle stick charts for details about support and resistance levels.(we need to use the weekly charts for technical support and resistance)
Open up a one year weekly chart week of 10/11/19 form a doji
and closed at $.1273 U.S.
That my friends is the near term resistance for NGW. Near term support is approx. $.10 U.S.
Next resistance is approx. $.1374-.14
GLTA
Hi Guys,
SF, naturally you have to make your own risk tolerance decisions with your money.
And yes NGW is a start up company without much of a track record.
We are not talking about S & P 500 investing here.
But if you are looking for a very speculative play, in a speculative sector then it seems to me NGW if a good place to be.
I have put my money to work, and will hold for the while until the valuations become over stretched.
For me NGW remains under valued given its recent profit and sales growth. And its very low relative valuations to other much larger companies in NGW market place.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Great news on the video pod cast yesterday.
And I for one agree that they should be leasing an existing building with the "bones" of existing water and electric service already in place.
I have relocated and built several manufacturing factories in my business career. So I have a good idea about what is involved with this project.
And the inside renovations to an existing building would be not too costly for NGW
In fact for example lets take a 60,000 sq ft. facility that was a prior existing manufacturing facility, with good electrical distribution and good water and existing drains existing in the building.
It seems to me grow rooms require HVAC, and plumbing.
NGW needs to keep growing inside. That is their claim to fame to be the very best in the business. And inside growing allows for that control, and quality of product.
The budget would need to put up 28 grow room, install electrical, AC, water, lighting, water feeds, and drains.
I estimate that this could be done for approximately $1,000,000.
So lets add some extra equipment, design, layout engineering start up cost for another $250,000.
This is easily to be financed with the profit that they would make in the third quarter of 2020.
So guys to me this is a great and real plan for NGW.
In fact you all heard it here fist. That NGW will announce this project formally at the second quarterly report in mid August. Or possibly before.
To me it is a no brainer!!!
Buying more here as fund are available.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
As I said NGW will take care of its own with stock option grants.
OK. .15 Canadian = approx. $.11 + U.S.
And in addition we get the crumbs let over and if we wish to add now we are $.12 + U.S.
I am not surprised or upset about this option share issuance.
The management does deserve to get paid nicely for their performance.
But NGW let slow down a bit on the issuance. Thereby slowing down of the amount of share outstanding each quarter.
And also give us little guys a chance to catch up here and make some money.
Remember most of us are into this company at a higher cost basis.
But we all feel these this will change shortly.
GLTA
Hi Guy,
HD, I love GTO's mid sixty the best………..426 hemi.....your talking Dodge.? the GTO had a 389 cu in. with either 4 barrel or 3 duces as carbs.
So this must have been a very modified track car.
Not usual for GTO GM and Dodge to mix breeds.
But with that, it likely beat all on the street.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Ever drive a stick shift transmission car. The motor is running at a good speed, you start to engage the clutch, you feel the pull of the acceleration, and the car starts to move forward.
All of a sudden the clutch is fully engaged and you have the throttle control of the pull of full speed ahead.
Well NGW recently shifted gears and engaged the clutch (2 quarters of profit and growing sales and margins). NGW is just starting to move. Soon clutch and motor will be fully engaged (extraction startup, profit margin growth and Boticelli clone sales).
Then WOW, WOW, full speed ahead. Look out above for the share price!!
Buying more when funds available.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Very large drop in the bucket long term for Paul Chow if in fact his options do expire shortly.
But please don't cry to much for Paul Chow. He will do very well long term. And be sure NGW will be taking care of their own very shortly with addition option share grant for key employees.
It just the way this game is play.
Remember we sit on the outside trying to pick up a few crumbs here and there as we can.
GLTA
Hi HD,
I did listen to the March quarterly report very carefully.
And Mike made a very important comment at that public on line review of the quarter ending March 2020.
He stated that the current sales are now 90% bulk flower and about 10% pre roll products.
He stated as a goal for the company by year end that NGW would be selling 90% pre roll flower and 10% bulk product.
We can do some deep digging and make our own estimates but without much analysis we all know that the pre roll products sell and several times the price of bulk flower prices.
So even without the extraction facility adding much to this years sales numbers, I believe we will see a very large growth of monthly revenue.
In my opinion easily growing to $1.5-2 million U.S. dollars per month. And then early next year easily into $2-2.5 million U.S. dollars per month. And likely much more with the extraction startup and sales growth of the extraction product.
This should in addition move the profit into the 55-60% range. And this would be a game changer for the NGW business.
Growing the inhouse profit to easily pay for set up of other growing facilities in the second half of 2021. By leasing existing building near the home facility. Set up could happen in 6 months of less.
And the share price will move up accordingly.
GLTA
Hi Baller1,
Comments are always welcome. I never assume that I have the total answers.
We really just need time to see this business plan grow, and the share price will naturally follow the money and profit.
A lot of money to be made in the future investing in NGW at these very low valuation levels.
But the NGW story is now really starting to come together.
A real business has been built that will continue to grow for many, many years.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Oh, I forgot to add another very, very important piece of information from the recent news release
“The entire NGW team has been working tirelessly to meet our continued growing customer’s demand as we are sold out of product week over week. The rapid expansion into retail is in full bloom across California including Oakland, Los Angeles, San Joaquin Valley and San Diego areas.” stated Mike Jennings, CEO.
Wow, sold out of product each week.
Wow, expansion into retail with NGW branded product, thru out Northern, Middle, and Southern California.
Guys, for me the above is a major milestone and building the brand for much, much more growth in the near future.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Lets do some real financial analysis, like the pros might do after much consideration. We are starting to get some real information about the profitability of NGW. 40% profit the last quarter is very, very impressive to me. It shows that NGW business plan is working and can be sustained and grown into the future. And near term profit improvement product plans( pre rolls, and extraction in house facility C) are happening now and expanding in the near future.
Copy and pasted from recent NGW news update.
In the months of April, May and June 2020, the Company surpassed US$1Million of revenues in each month and as a result, exceeded US$3Million in revenues for Q2 2020.* The total costs incurred to generate this revenue was approximately US$1.8Million.
So profit of 1.2 million per quarter x 4 quarters = $4.8 million per year
Latest update had outstanding share count at approx. 160,000,000
Using this information we have the following
$4,800,000/160,000,000 = $.03 U.S. per share profit for year.
And yes most growing companies in the real world sell at a PE of 10 or even more. The current pe of the S & P 500 is selling over 22 times.
So looking good here from a second valuation basis.
1. market cap to sales currently only 1.5 times
2. forward PE of 10 times earning would price NGW at $.30 U.S.
3. Gross profit of $1.2 million/$3 million = 40% gross profit
4. More gross profit % improvement coming very soon with the extraction facility start up.
4. More gross profit % and $ improvement coming now with selling pre roll product at a much higher sales point than bulk flower sales.
The above reasons are why I keep adding to my share positions as funds become available.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Remember the market cap to sales for other (although much larger)companies as CGC, TLRY, ACB.....
are trading at about 4-5 price to market cap.
NGW is trading at about 1.5 price to sales annual sales at $12,000,000 ++ total shares outstanding 156,000,000
Current price $.1195 x 156,000,000 = $18,642,000/12,000,000 = 1.55
So there you have it guys.
Last chance to enter at a discount here.
We should easily be trading at 3 times price to sales...
Share price should move up.
My target by the middle of Aug. 2020 $.25 u.s.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
next-green-wave-500px-logo
Next Green Wave Revenue Exceeds
US$3Million in Q2
Vancouver, B.C. — July 08, 2020 — Next Green Wave Holdings Inc. (CSE: NGW) (OTCQX: NXGWF) ("Next Green Wave", “NGW” or the "Company") as a follow up to our last press release on June 4, 2020, the Company is pleased to confirm the following operational and financial milestones:
In the months of March, April, May and June 2020, the Company operated with positive cash flow, and achieved both positive EBITDA and positive Net Income.*
In the months of April, May and June 2020, the Company surpassed US$1Million of revenues in each month and as a result, exceeded US$3Million in revenues for Q2 2020.* The total costs incurred to generate this revenue was approximately US$1.8Million.
Next Green Wave is continuing to advance the completion of our extraction facility (the “Facility C”) working with the state utility company and the Coalinga engineering division. We are nearing the final stages of both licensing and construction related to Facility C and are working towards this being fully operational in late Q3 2020.
Retail
As part of the growing demand for Next Green Wave premium flower, the company has launched a new lineup of products under the NGW brand and continuing to conduct R&D on several edible and vape cartridge formulations for future release.
The Next Green Wave branded flower and concentrates can be found in premium dispensaries in cities across California including San Diego, Los Angeles and Oakland. The new flower was released first locally in Coalinga at Have A Heart and quickly expanded through our other retail partners and distributors, including some of Los Angeles most well-known and respected dispensaries like DTPG and Dr. Greenthumb.
Flower
“Considering the start-up challenges and obstacles this Company has had to overcome over the last few years we are extremely proud to announce the accomplishments above. Now that we have set baselines for production and revenue over the last two quarters, our objectives are threefold. First, continue to optimize operations and improve production metrics to maximize overall flower output at our production facility. Second, continue to grow revenue by increasing branded product sales volume and increasing downline product sales such as extracts, pre-rolls, vape cartridges and edibles. Finally, get our extraction facility online this year which will add revenue through tolling and decrease internal production costs for downline products.”
“The entire NGW team has been working tirelessly to meet our continued growing customer’s demand as we are sold out of product week over week. The rapid expansion into retail is in full bloom across California including Oakland, Los Angeles, San Joaquin Valley and San Diego areas.” stated Mike Jennings, CEO.
On June 07, 2020, the Company granted 3,000,000 stock options under its Stock Option Plan, exercisable at a price of CDN$0.15 per share for two directors. The stock options are five-year options which will vest 25% every six months for a period of two years.
Michael Jennings
Chief Executive Officer, Director
Next Green Wave Holdings Inc.
About Next Green Wave
Next Green Wave is a fully integrated premium seed to shelf craft cannabis producer offering products through its in-house brand portfolio and wholesale flower for other large cannabis manufacturers. The Company owns and operates a 35,000 sf indoor facility in Coalinga, CA which is home to our nursery, cultivation, distribution, and future extraction business. NGW has an exclusive seed library consisting of 120 cannabis strains and hybrids including award-winning cultivars and is nearing completion of developing tissue culture cloning technology with bio-tech leader Precigen. Marketing, product design and formulation are produced in-house, please follow along us at www.nextgreenwave.com or on Twitter, Instagram, or LinkedIn.
For more information regarding Next Green Wave please contact:
Paul Chow
Director
Tel: +1 (604) 609.6167
IR@nextgreenwave.com
*Forecasts assume no meaningful impacts or disruptions to our operations as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic beyond the new protocols and safeguards already implemented throughout the Company
**All financial information is provided in U.S. dollars. The Company provides financial metrics that are not prepared in accordance with IFRS. Management uses non-IFRS financial measures, in addition to IFRS financial measures, to understand and compare operating results across accounting periods, for financial and operational decision making, for planning and forecasting purposes and to evaluate the Company’s financial performance. Management believes that these non-IFRS financial measures reflect the Company’s ongoing business in a manner that allows for meaningful comparisons and analysis of trends in the business, as they facilitate comparing financial results across accounting periods and to those of peer companies. Management also believes that these non-IFRS financial measures enable investors to evaluate the Company’s operating results and future prospects in the same manner as management. These non-IFRS financial measures may also exclude expenses and gains that may be unusual in nature, non-cash, infrequent or not reflective of the Company’s ongoing operating results. As there are no standardized methods of calculating these non-IFRS measures, the Company’s methods may differ from those used by others, and accordingly, the use of these measures may not be directly comparable to similarly titled measures used by others. Accordingly, these non-IFRS measures are intended to provide additional information and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures of performance prepared in accordance with IFRS. The quarterly information disclosed above is not audited.
Neither Canadian Securities Exchange (the “CSE”) nor its Regulation Services Providers (as that term is defined in the policies of the CSE) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.
Next Green Wave Forward Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. All statements that are not historical facts, including without limitation, statements regarding future estimates, plans, programs, forecasts, projections, objectives, assumptions, expectations or beliefs of future performance, are “forward-looking statements.” Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results, events or developments to be materially different from any future results, events or developments expressed or implied by such forward looking statements. Such risks and uncertainties include, among others, dependence on obtaining and maintaining regulatory approvals, including acquiring and renewing state, local or other licenses and any inability to obtain all necessary governmental approvals licenses and permits to complete construction of its proposed facilities in a timely manner; engaging in activities which currently are illegal under US federal law and the uncertainty of existing protection from U.S. federal or other prosecution; regulatory or political change such as changes in applicable laws and regulations, including U.S. state-law legalization, particularly in California, due to inconsistent public opinion, perception of the medical-use and adult-use marijuana industry, bureaucratic delays or inefficiencies or any other reasons; any other factors or developments which may hinder market growth; NGW’s limited operating history and lack of historical profits; reliance on management; NGW’s requirements for additional financing, and the effect of capital market conditions and other factors on capital availability, competition, including from more established or better financed competitors; and the need to secure and maintain corporate alliances and partnerships, including with customers and suppliers. These factors should be considered carefully, and readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such forward-looking statements. Although NGW has attempted to identify important risk factors that could cause actual actions, events or results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements, there may be other risk factors that cause actions, events or results to differ from those anticipated, estimated or intended. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking statements. NGW no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, even if new information becomes available as a result of future events, new information or for any other reason except as required by law.
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Next Green Wave, 300-1055 West Hastings St., Vancouver, British Columbia V6E 2E9, 6040741143
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Hi Guys,
Just notice a new "corporate info deck" on the NGW web site.
Shows several new retail partners
https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/11fBTc34RUZOe1jtrJrsUqDBJF9UxnK2HBio-JUcJCO8/edit#slide=id.g85804acd21_0_176
GLTA
Hi Guys,
As a healthy senior citizen I am just going save my energy for a more explosive day. Waiting for the big one here.
But HD yes, you might just get to enjoy yourself very soon!!
Good Luck to All.
Hi Guys,
Yes, just sitting back and enjoying the ride up here.
First of a short leg up in share price of much, much more movement to come.
Someone is adding to their positions here not a lot of money in play here. Lets get real only about $40,000 us dollar put at play today.
But without news today we will all take this move.
And as for me much more up side stock movement coming very near term.
Waiting for the Cert. of O. for the extraction facility, and the start up of the extraction in house. These business milestones will be the move up into the next trading range. And more to come.
Remember the market cap to valuations are still very, very undervalued at these levels.
Any good news will make NGW move much higher and earn some market respect with volume of shares to follow. And in addition the market cap valuations will begin to normalize and not trade as discounted as the market cap currently is trading at.
Hi Guys,
I just guess we will now just "watch paint dry" as the next chapter in the NGW story comes together. Not much more to say about this company at this point.
We need some milestone event to add valuation to the market cap of this company.
Waiting for mid August for quarterly report, follow by mid September for the C of O and the start up of the extraction production in house.
In addition a realistic analyst report by real brokerage house would be meaningful as well.
Until then we sit and wait. I am still adding to my position as $$ allow.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
If you re read my post...…..I believe I stated some business success for NGW like posting 2 quarter of positive earning. And in addition the startup of their in house extraction and C of O for their extraction facility.
Would allow for a greater price to market cap ratio.
This would in my opinion wake up investors and give NGW a lower end competitive price to sales market cap of similar companies in the weed sector.
It is just as simple as that.
glta
Hi Guys,
Sorry Tmack I beg to disagree...…...We are dealing with a mico cap penny stock. No listed company here that is follow by a brokerage house and their "expert" analysis.
That is the reason for us to do our own due diligence and make our own analysis.
For me the Yahoo site has correct information as stated with the market cap vs. sales.
We know the outstanding shares for NGW is at or near 155,000,000
And using the current share price of $.10 US we get the market cap at or about $15,000,000 US dollars.
This is all not that complicated. If NGW moves to $1,200,000 per month x 12 months we are trading at just under 1 times sales to market cap.
It is that simple. And that is why I keep adding to my position as $$$ allow.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
A bit more about the price to sales valuations.
These ratios will and do change dramatically to the up side when and if companies meet there sales, profit and business objectives.
We will easily see and have time to notice, and react to the significant increase in daily share volume and small movement upwards in the stock price.
The large investors taking position over a several days before a news announcement and a large upward move in the stock.
Just sitting back and waiting, watching for this move to happen with NGW,
Next business milestone in my opinion the C of O and the startup of the extraction facility.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Strange filing on SEDI ...for NGW CFO recent share purchase. Price was stated on SEDI at $.12 Canadian.
.12 Canadian = .$0884 at todays exchange rate
How did the CFO buy these shares at a below market rate?? Or possibly the Canadian market just traded at these low amounts for that day of purchase. The U.S. market did not support this amount and hit these levels during the last few trading days.
Sorry to be picky here but overall very, very bullish when the CFO
puts his money to work in the open market.
I continue to add to my position as $$ allow.
Time to sit back and get ready for baseball on TV coming soon!!!
GLTA
Hi Guys,
I stand corrected HD...…….yes $14,000.000 per year
And my price forecast would need to be adjusted to $.30
For the details of the price for sales of all of the weed companies that I mentioned just open Yahoo finance, type in the stock symbol and then open click and open the area that says "statistics"
You will easily see the price to sales of any company that way.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
I just reviewed the price to sale of the following weed companies
TLRY,CGC ACB, CURLF (easy to confirm on Yahoo finance)
So there vary in range from 4.5-over 10
Given this information I an making the following forecast for the year end NGW price per share.
Assumptions.
1. 2 more quarterly reports that show a positive cash flow and profit.
2. The start up of the extraction facility, and sales of inhouse extraction NGW products in the third quarter.
By year end NGW should easily show sales of $1,200,000 per month
This would give an annual sales rate of $24,000,000
Lets us the lowest price to sales of the above at market cap at 4 times sales.
4 x $24,000,000 = $96,000,000 divide by 156,000,000 shares outstanding =$.62
My year end forecast for the share price is set at $.60
We should all do very well with our investments.
Adding to my position as $$ allow
Comments welcome
GLTA
Hi Guys,
More information today about New Jersey passing a bill to place the use of weed on to a vote in November.
Check this out.
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/new-jersey-assembly-approves-marijuana-decriminalization-bill-ahead-of-legalization-referendum/
Outside of NGW sell area, but another important metro area could go legal in a couple of months.
Just more bullish news on this sector.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
For me there will just no further reason for any price movement upwards until there is an announcement of a revenue add event.
I sit here like most of us for something real to happen.
For example
Finally obtaining the complete license and the town C of O for the extraction facility, with details about the start up dates announced by NGW.
Additional distribution outlets for the NGW branded item prerolled and other flower items.
Private label production for " Marque Name " retail distributors of weed
New Packaging with special high THC branded NGW special signature seeds, with item name and quality featured and named on the packaging. To retail a special higher retail price.
Until then we will trade sideways.
And I will add to my positions as $$ allow.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
TMack01 I do feel and share your pain. And I do agree that there were several miss steps that NGW that cost the company big time, and also put the company in a difficult financial position. Delays in project time table, miss direction of investments with no return on capital, management changes, delay in paper trail for California sales of Weed, and others.
But the last few months with the addition of the new board of directors member has shown good progress on turning this NGW ship around.
Getting rid of SD brand, although very costly was a great move. Also the removal of the overhead lease for the retail store, also a good move.
Focus on where is the money is now happening at NGW. Retail pre rolls instead of bulk sales, extraction start up sooner than later, and better late than never some day light on the progress of the Botticelli plantlet product.
Yes, the past year was very painful for us all. And very costly for most of us, me included. But I do like the current direction and current execution of the NGW business plan.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
TMack01 my thinking is by year end NGW will have issued 2 quarterly reports showing their revenue and hopefully continue profit growth.
Thereby establishing their business as a real growth money maker.
And that is the reasoning for the reasonable 4 x price to sales multiples.
With high growth companies this could also be much higher than 4 x sale market cap.
But I guess we will just have to see how the business for NGW works out.
With any reasonable market conditions for the WEED in California for me NGW will do very well.
Also Mike did comment that currently there is a shortage of very high content THC flower product. And that they are selling all that they produce.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Great Zoom conference call yesterday. GLTA
For me a couple of major points were made.
1. Mike stated as NGW business goal that they will move their product mix from bulk flower currently 80% of sale into pre rolls high THC content currently 20%. Into 80% pre rolls and 20% bulk.
This is a very big revenue shift. And see the link below as to support my reasoning.
https://elementalwellnesscenter.com/shop/c/Pre-Rolls
very high THC 25%+ pre rolls each retail for $15.00 per .75 gram
This works out to 456/.75 = 608 x $15.00 = $9120 per pound.
Ok this is retail pricing lets divide by 3 to get NGW selling price per pound = $3000/pound
They grow approx. 500 pounds per month x $3000/lb. - $1,500,000.
Just for flower product = $18 million per year.
Ok, lets add the extraction business starting in the 3rd quarter
And plantlets Botticelli cloned starting sales in 4th quarter.
Easy to see sales moving towards a annual pace of $25-30 million.
At price to sales 4 x $25 million = $100 million. With 156 million shares outstanding the share price should be at 100/156 = $.65
And my forecast for the year end 2020 price.
The above reason is why I am adding shares at the current price level!!!!
Hi Guys,
8 times normal count of shares traded today...……I like that a lot.
Great day with a very very nice move up.
More to come since we broke resistance level of $.115
Need to hold here and close on a weekly basis chart.
Next resistance level is approx. $.15
See you all there and more next week!!!
GLTA
Who purchased more shares today?????
Hi Guys,
Now this is what I wanted to see. Some real high profit NGW in house manufactured product!!!!
Mikeloudseeds Instagram posted today.
WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Check this out, and just terrific to see!!
https://www.instagram.com/p/CA8iyd_BRVa/
A real great step forward for sales and big profit to come.
We are sitting nicely here guys.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Well NGW answered most of my questions posted a few days ago. And mostly all in a positive way.
It seems to me that the next real leg up will be upon the news that the in house extraction facility is up and in production.
Extraction = $$$$$$$!!
And high level THC product and CBD extraction = high levels $$$$$$!!!!
Still plenty of time to buy new shares at this level. At market cap of 1.5 sales this valuation is just extremely low relative to other micro, micro, cap companies. And yes NGW is stating that they have positive cash flow and profit per month.
Still waiting for the news of status of Intrexon and the seedlings product. This should be a real money maker for NGW.
Now those of us who have some cash can easily add shares at these levels and sit back as the NGW business plan is worked out.
The notice of their business starting to gain a solid footing will be well rewarded in the share price in the up coming quarters.
I am adding today at these levels, very little risk here in my opinion at the current valuations.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Tomorrow at 1:30 pacific time NGW will hold a zoom conference call.
My topic/questions I hope to hear the details to.
1. Extraction facility.....why delay...expected start up. And sales of inhouse extracted products.
2. Quantity of plants gowning in each room. When to expect 500-600 plant capacity as stated
3. Cash flow positive...when?
4. Stock dilution to fund the business when and how much required?
5. Intrexon start up time table.
6. Sales forecast for the next quarter and year end.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Well we did get the filings and sales are weaker than I expected.
Low price for their flower and also very limited extraction CBD sales likely their big short fall. Although inventory did increase $$$$
With 200,000,000 shares outstanding and USD $.08 share price total market cap is now approx. $16,000,000.
So lets say they can for this current quarter they can put together sales of $2.5-3,000,000. That give NGW an annualized sales rate of between $12-15,000,000 per year.
So at market cap of $16,000,000 divided by $12,000,000 we are trading at only 1.3 times sales.
For me we are way under valued. We should be trading at between 3-5 market cap to sales.
So there you have it guys. I guess we sit here are wait for management comments. Hopefully soon if any.
For me a big question to answer is, why is the extraction facility taking so long to set in and start up. Also for me when the extraction facility starts up into production we will see a nice move up in share pricing. Extraction = $$$$$$!!
I am holding and not adding to my position. I am not selling at these levels either.
Hi Guys,
For certain NGW as a start up has made some major and costly business decisions. These decisions have taken them to their difficult operating position as of today.
Most of us long time followers know of these mistakes. But some of the bigger ones are outlined below.
For example the license branding of their quality product, and giving away all profit with no return. Investing in South America venture with no certain control or return.
Delay in construction and start up of their growing and extraction business. Start up of a company store. All of these things cost a lot of money with out the sales and profit return on investment capital and management time and energy.
These costly errors cost investors a lot of $$$$. With extra stock and option grant issues to keep the cash flow going into their operations.
For me most of these costly errors are in the past. However the delay obtaining the C of O for their extraction facility is of much concern. And a costly one, since the gross sales numbers and profit from the extraction of the by product parts of the grow are significant.
I stay invested since I do believe that they are now staying on a direction for their base business. That is growing high THC yield flower, and great extraction products under their own NGW brand.
We know the first quarter will be only a glimmer of light in sales numbers, given the delay in start up of sales of planting less plants per room as they prove their process, and not to mention the delay in start up of extraction.
Hopefully that management can shed some outlook for the ongoing operations and sales story as it has developed over the last two months.
It's all about growing and improving the efficiency of the plant count per room. And in addition the start up of the in house extraction for CBD oils and other products.
The market place is taking care of itself with the demand for high THC content product and the pricing slowing growing in the last several months
Next quarter will be the start of break even cash flow and more to come.
I am not selling any of my shares. And I do look forward to the quarterly report whenever it is released. Hopefully sooner than later.
GLTA
Hi Guys,
Nice day for all us longs here. Here is some chart tech analysis for us.
I just checked the one year daily candle stick charts looking for support and resistance with this up tick on the NGW stock price movement in mind.
Trade date 1/16/2020 gap up and formed a doji NGW closed at a price of US $.1151
Also another doji on 11/22/19 NGW stock closed at a price of US $.11
So for me we should be trading up to this near term up side resistance level.
Hopefully the first quarter report with improved sales numbers, and management forward looking bullish report will help us move pass these resistance levels in price point.
Next stop the charts should would be in the $.15-.16 range. Then the $.18-.19 range.
But some good product or market news could drive this for a near term break out. But not likely without some meaningful business development.
I am looking for a meaningful move on NGW obtaining their C of O for their extraction facility.
GLTA