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Mide and all,
Just to add a little of my 2 cents and hopefully help with this discussion about the "SHO list" and our "short interest". One of the determining factors for being on the SHO list is that these "failure to delivers" occur for five consecutive days before a stock is added to this list.
I do not think and I hope no one has the impression that once a stock is off this SHO list it means "shorts are getting covered immediately and there will be a huge runup in the price". Which I think is part of the reason for mide and others trying to clear things up about what our "short interest" is and the different relationship that has to the stock than the SHO list.
IMO, the SHO list(because there is no real consequence or action by being on the list...just "oh if anyone wants to know, here is the list) is just an indication that market makers (for whatever reason you want to believe but mainly because there is money in it for them and someone else, the "big boys", to do so) are shorting the stock down to wherever they want it to be. Naked shorting is just one of the tools they use to do this.
Being off the list does not mean the price will not go down now, it just means that for five days straight we have not met the requirements to be on the list. In other words, the "heavy" NAKED shorting MAY be about over with short term. And if you want to take that as an indication that "heavy" NORMAL shorting by the "big boys" is about over with short term and they will cover and add at this price range then I suppose you can. I do not have enough experience to say that is what I think will happen. Mide and a few others here have done better at using their TA and experience to make more money than I certainly have in this stock!
Just FYI from the NASDAQ website:
"As defined in Rule 203(c)(6) of Regulation SHO, a “threshold security” is any equity security of any issuer that is registered under Section 12 of the Exchange Act, or that is required to file reports under Section 15(d) of the Exchange Act (commonly referred to as reporting securities), where, for five consecutive settlement days:
* There are aggregate fails to deliver at a registered clearing agency of 10,000 shares or more per security;
* The level of fails is equal to at least one-half of one percent of the issuer’s total shares outstanding; and
* The security is included on a list published by a self-regulatory organization (SRO).
A security ceases to be a threshold security if it does not exceed the specified level of fails for five consecutive settlement days."
Mide,
Other than the psychology of a 2.00 support area, why technically did you cover and add at 2.02?
thanks.
hello all. been away for a week and my a/c is out! Of course right when the heat wave hits. Using my lappy in the basement. I'm not really trading today but could anyone watching level 2 tell me whats the lowest the ASK has hit today?
A million shares in 30 mins and up only .20 roughly on this news so far? Yeah, I agree they are holding it down for something or definitely trying to stifle/control the run.
Level 2 today interesting. I didn't get to watch yesterday. I am noticing that quite often as soon as we get an uptick there is a trade/sell at bid for the total bid amount. And then a stall in action on a downtick. It occured the last two rundowns to 2.20ish today. This to me would indicate normal shorting.
What I do NOT see is the large size ask amounts that keep coming and the ask amounts that don't change even with alot of buying that to me have indicated naked shorting recently. JMO based on observation of level 2. But I guess we will have to wait a couple more days to see if we come back on the list since the naked shorting has to occur for 5 consecutive days. This could just be a shake/pullback whatever to get the profit takers out.
My chart is crowded and messy. (disclaimer: I am not experienced enough to use the fibonacci nor andrews pitchfork with a large degree of certainty) I wanted to show the convergence of: 1. My support line at 2.40 from previous years weekly high close 2. The bottom of the "pitchfork" at 2.40 and 3. The fibonacci support/resistence line just under 2.40. IMPORTANT: A close under 2.40ish this week and/or lack of a reversal back over 2.40 next week would break that support. Admittedly, a little wishful thinking on my part that doesn't happen.
OT: ALL JMO! Too often people getting blasted by "lurkers" for "calling" a low, high or trend. Hey, come on now guys let's share info and opinion in a mature positive way thats helpful to all. Not naming names but if we DO NOT RESPOND and JUST IGNORE these guys it takes away their ammo and they must go back to RB and feed somewhere else. Instead of supporting them, those of you who have voiced their concern over the moderation of this board should go to RB and attempt to have an informative discussion there. Have fun and see how well that goes before questioning what goes on here. With some exception, I think the moderators are tolerant of anyone posting insightful, thought out, BACKED opinions. And that is mine! Now get out yer guns and shoot some holes in this chart! LOL!
Villas,
In the LIMITED way I understand the deal I would at face value say that would be a valid statement.
HOWEVER, when you short you ARE "borrowing" the shares and those must come from somewhere so I suppose the brokers could issue naked shares just as easily in that case as if you were buying. Maybe someone with a better grasp of it can shed more light.
"Effective January 3, 2005, new short sale rules were implemented, including a uniform “locate” requirement for short sales in all equity securities and additional requirements for broker-dealers trading securities in which a substantial amount of failures to deliver have occurred."
OT:Usatoday guy
Nice he waits till the price is this low to email. The weasel. If he is such a know it all then he should know that all stocks ebb and flow like that especially in it's in a growth stage! We're BIG PICTURE thinking here dummy! Very immanure to wait and email like that. What a %^)*&^! Anyway, Sounds like you took the high road with this #$%&*&! I live in No. VA about 15 mins. from the usatoday headquarters. He doesn't want me to come down there and splain things to him does he?! LOL!
Ok, I'll bite. lol What did he want?
Hey guys,
I have been following this stock for a couple of months. I have not pulled the trigger yet. I am still trying to figure out when I want to get in. I do believe that this company is definitely on the move. Still doing my research. good luck and hope to be a fellow shareholder soon.
Sean,
I know how you feel. I have lost money trading GTE recently. I kept telling myself that it is at it's lowest and everything was looking good for the company and yet it still kept going lower. I have made mistakes but have learned from them as you will. Your comments were out of frustration and everyone here understands that. I am assuming that you are in good health and if so then life ain't so bad for you. Pick yerself up and dust yerself off. You may decide to jump back in the fight (not just with GTE) and if so then make sure you learn from this experience.
My weekly chart looking alot better now with a little help.
Coming off the sho list is still the bull signal for me. I know most on the board have poo-pooed it but I want confirmation that we won't see this go back down as with the previous action after recent pr's.
Having said that,(LOL) I did pick up some more shares after the first pr (couldn't help myself and I REALLY need to avg. down) and it looks like we could have a positive week. We will see how today, tomorrow and the rest of the week go.
Tech,
Since previous pr's have had little effect on the trend I hope you are correct! I am waiting for green though with these sneaky %^*@#'s.
Ooops pr came out.
Maybe some covering going on now. PSE on the bid.
SHO LIST
I am now more convinced than ever this is the facilitator for the drop. When GTE comes off of the list, the downward pressure will decrease and the price will begin to go back up. Think about it, how can a share price go up if mm's can sit on the ask all day and sell naked shares to anyone who buys? Any upward momentum or pressure hits a wall and any downward pressure is exascerbated.
How does TA factor into this? Well, all my supports and indicators were blown when we came down from the hammer at 2.48 instead of up. I did not chart anything for pps this low. Unless we close the week positive above 2.40 my weekly chart will also need reevaluating. So thats all I have left. When we come off the list we will see approximately where the bottom is. We are currently enjoying what tomorrows list will show to be our 12th day on the SHO list. Let's hope that the 13-14 day mark will do it. If not it could be a long way down. All is jmo.
BTW please don't take this personally Ragnar but much as you can rub some here the wrong way sometimes, I have to admit that your TA (and fashions) as far as pps predictions so far have been more accurate than mine.
Anyone back in ERHE? I am looking at getting in now. Opinions?
Weekly chart looks interesting.
Russell 2000
Just FYI from a usatoday article:
Small-company stocks are sizzling. The fact negative preannouncements are higher among the S&P 500 than in the universe of stocks shows how strong small-company stocks are, says Nicholas Bohnsack of International Strategy & Investment. He says smaller companies continue to be strong as the economy has remained healthy.
This detail hasn't been missed by investors who keep pushing shares of small companies higher. The Russell 2000 index, which tracks small-company stocks, rose 13 points Friday to a record 662. It has gained 15% the past 2½ months.
Wat,
I think 5% of 500k is 25k but my brain calc may be wrong! I think it was token and he certainly doesn't NEED any more shares but a nice gesture nonetheless however small.
Lowtrade,
"learn to live with it"
That sure is a bitter pill to swallow but you have obviously done it and moved on. I am trying to learn the "if you can't beat em join em" game too so I can give them the finger (does anybody do that anymore?) when I profit on my trades! LOL!
I have had a hard time with my short term charting on this stock, but I felt like my weekly candle chart indicators(posts #3528 and #3560) were in line for a reversal soon this week or next. But if there is some truth to the revised strat launch article (in the absence of any news directly from GTE), then as you and mide point out, the top(and bottom) of this trend or channel will be tricky to determine.
Good luck to you as always and thanks for the conversation.
Lowtrade,
Good points and well taken. Very basically, I am saying that if a stock is on the sho list then MORE naked shorting is occuring than if it wasn't on the list and that is a bad thing if you want the stock price to go up near term! I think you can agree with that!
The stock price has gone down since it came on to the list, not just today and the strat article everyone is blaming the drop today on, came out on July 3rd.
"Shorting" is necessary to markets but "naked shorting" is like writing checks from an account that never has to be balanced and has unlimited funds! LOL! JMO! You have obviously done more research in it than I but I do not see the necessity of allowing unlimited "naked shorting" to markets.
Lowtrade,
I certainly respect your opinion as I have previously told you. However, I do not agree with you here:
"I don't understand all the posts about the SHO list. The SHO list had nothing to do with GTE's PPs fall."
Maybe it isn't the bigger picture reason which I think you are looking at with hedge funds and mm activity but it is most definitely a tool that is being used by them to effect the direction of the stock price and subsequently yes it does have quite a bit to do with GTE's PPs.
Fashion,
After thinking about it a little bit, todays fall was probably started with the gap down (why the gap down? who knows? rumored strat launch delay or london terrorism? all just a perfect excuse to gap down) and then helped along with some shorting. I still think there was some shorting today of the naked kind also. I have not seen anything that makes me think anyone is "covering" shorts. Why would mm's "short" when they can "naked short" all day long right? The large block of 200k @ 2.40 when the share price was around 2.30 boosted it back. Maybe that was a hedge fund short cover? who knows.
If you watch level 2 at all you can see when NAS or PSE are on the ask with large blocks and they just keep showing up there with large blocks as the price goes down or doesn't move up.
At any rate I don't think we come off the list tomorrow but maybe Monday. Better if it were tomorrow but we will see what tomorrows trading looks like.
Sebass,
You must enter the previous day's date.
http://www.amex.com/amextrader/?href=/amextrader/tradingData/RegSHO/TrDa_RegSHO.jsp
Fashion,
Thanks for the props. I guess if you are using highs/lows rather than close to draw your lines as we discussed yesterday, with this stock you stand to gain quite a bit more! Good Job!
Earlier today I wasn't holding out much hope for a positive week to get some indicators to confirm my previously posted chart TA. My support line (close price) is around 2.50 so there is still hope it seems. I knew the rundown was panic selling and shorting, I just did not know (still don't) if it was going to STAY that low (or go lower).
I have to admit I even got sweaty palms for a while as the price sank. I am unable to take advantage of the dip right now also. Too bad for me I can't even avg. down my long stash. Oh well, for both of us.
Even though I might be off by a week, I still think it heads up this week or next. Question is how low will it go between now and then, where is the resistence at, and are we going to get off the sho list tomorrow. That would be a good signal for me. Awesome hammer forming for daily candle with huge volume if price stays around this level. 2.50 appears to be resistence right now intraday but I would love to see green.
Phillip,
Thanks for the link. Transferring funds was not something I had thought of but would solve the problem of getting immediate monies from the gov. rather than waiting on the budget process. If you can find that other link for the near space allocation in the 2006 budget that would be appreciated.
Same article info on this fox news link however important to note is this which I have not seen before now:
"Now FOX News adds additional background, and notes that the USAF is considering seeking up to $15 million on near-space operations and research in its 2007 budget, much of which will be focused on balloons and LTAs."
Correct me if anyone has seen different but I have not seen any info to date for "near space" money from USAF for the 2007 budget. Mostly what I have seen is for 2008 budget. Thats not enough to buy a strat certainly but could get some money flowing in.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,161534,00.html
A second chart attempt. Still working on this one. This is a shorter time period using daily candles. ChiOsc and Acc/Dist going different directions. Also ChiOsc and macd divergences.
Define your time periods please.
Intermediate=?
Short=?
Long=?
For my trading style I am using, short would be a swing from anywhere between 2-3 days to 1-2 weeks, intermediate 1-3 months and long term 6 months plus.
Fashion,
Just fyi and not concerning your post I wanted to tell you that I have not been using the weekly candles for charting until recently when I noticed you and techbear sometimes refer to them. Thanks. They give you a more long term picture of a stocks trend and I am now using them as much as I use my 3 and 6 month dailys.
Although you didn't ask for my opinion on your chart I will poke my nose in and say that I also had not been using the ChiOsc. From your chart I see that it has turned upwards towards the centerline crossover.
From the stockcharts website: "The Chaikin Oscillator gives momentum characteristics to the Accumulation/Distribution Line, which can be a bit of a laggard sometimes. By adding momentum features, the Chaikin Oscillator will lead the Accumulation/Distribution Line. Movements in the Accumulation/Distribution Line are usually preceded by corresponding divergences in the Chaikin Oscillator. There are two bullish signals that can be generated from the Chaikin Oscillator: positive divergences and centerline crossovers. Because the Chaikin Oscillator is an indicator of an indicator, it is prudent to look for confirmation of a positive divergence, by a bullish moving average crossover for example, before counting this as a bullish signal."
As far as your channel comments: Notice you drew the bottom channel line using a combo of low and close prices and top channel line using just the highs. My charting is amateurish, I'm no expert and it was probably just an oversight on your part or my eyes just ain't what they used to be but just wanted to point that out to you. I think you should draw your channel and support/resistence lines using close price. JMO. This would not only change your channel lines somewhat but also your support and resistence lines as well. You could use both and draw one a thinner line (like I did in my chart for support lines) but not combine one line with highs/lows and close together. I invite you to critique my chart and opinion as well. #3528 and #3530
Army Purchases 16 of TCOM's Aerostats for Iraq RAID
Posted 05-Jul-2005 00:55 / Permanent Link
TCOM 17M RAID Aerostat
TCOM LP of Columbia, MD received a contract to provide the U.S. Army with sixteen 17M Tactical Aerostat Systems to support U.S. troops during ongoing hostilities in Iraq. The contract award is valued at approximately $12 million and is part of a prime RAID 3 (Rapid Aerostat Initial Deployment) contract awarded to Raytheon by the Army. Work will be performed at TCOM's headquarters in Columbia, MD with production activities conducted at TCOM's Manufacturing and Flight Test Facility in Elizabeth City, NC.
DID has covered JLENS and RAID surveillance and communications aerostats before, as well as the USMC's MARTS communications aerostat and the general rise of this new military sector. Trailer mounted for ease of transport and deployment, this system can be operated by three people and deployed in less than two hours. Carrying payloads to operating altitudes of 1000 feet, the system provides persistent surveillance, staying aloft for up to a week at a time.
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/2005/07/army-purchases-16-of-tcoms-aerostats-for-iraq-raid/index...
Indicators above chart are all in similar positions to previous run in price.
The weekly candle patterns on chart circled are also similar.
However the indicators below chart have not confirmed similar pattern.
If week is positive could see Aroon up move to cross the Aroon down as it continues downward. +DI cross -DI and both the Wm%R and the RSI create positive divergences. If week is negative then, well...time to reassess.
now you tell me what you see....
1st attempt to paste chart, bear with me...
Interesting that they all came at once like that and not in the course of regular trading. Would have driven the price up to much. Some of that scratch my back, I scratch yours stuff that lowtrade was talking about I guess.
jf,
We are definitely spoiled here. When the rare "outlaw" poster comes in it is very hard not to reply in support of the way the board is run. I try hard not to because I think that just makes me no better. If they get no feedback from their asinine posts then they just go away. I guess we can just use the ignore function. I actually admire Rock's patience with these people.
Another large block at 3.08 411,900 @ 4:49!
Total volume 3,115,600!
I think you should reread my post if yours was a reply to my post in support of the way the board is moderated. If you are replying to those posts by Aero and Duz then we are in agreement.
DUZ,
I came to IHUB from another forum to get away from exactly that type of posting that went on. I have found that ANYONE who posts an educated, well thought out opinion supported by reliable source, is well received by Rocky and others here regardless of bias for or against the company.
The difference is that his(Aero) posts always spew negativity under the guise of devil's advocate/other point of view/investor's watchdog. If he were to moderate his posts with a dose of pragmatism and more substance he might be taken more seriously by others here.
We need some TA / MM analysis of this!!!!
Aero,
You have made an excellent post in your own obliviousness. The govt. backing of the LM program is in trouble. HELLO!!!! Why would they want to pay LM further to develop what is already been done by GTE?