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Koman you claim to be a big technical analysis guy, yet you used the term resistance incorrectly? 4.85 or anything in the 4's are clearly support not resistance. Support is below the stock price, resistance is above the stock price. Any entry level technical analysis would point that out
Ohh so you have no point other than conjecture. And you still have not acknowledged that your comment about cognate owning the building is incorrect. Ohh well, I cannot cure stupid.
Iclight you again fail to understand how to read financial statements when you make comments like "in other words the property is cognates". You are flat out wrong. The proof is the financial statements on file with the SEC, that reflect the property on NWBO's financial statements as an asset. End of issue, it is NWBO's property
Here's what NWBO could do with the property in the future in addition to producing their own vaccines there....they could lease out additional space to other companies to conduct their own research using NWBO's facilities, generating additional revenue, while fostering research and development.
Alright all you chartists out there, take a look at the two year chart for NWBO, with the 50 day EMA and the 200 day SMA. Compare October 2014 vs 2015. If 2014 is any indication of the remainder of 2015, we can expect to see the price shoot to the 50 day EMA next (currently $7.14, but a moving target), test that level for a bit, then continue on toward the 200 day SMA (currently $8.16, but also a moving target)
Food for thought
I personally think that we will test those prices much quicker in 2015 than we did in 2014. JMO.
If you wanted to load up on NWBO to the gills, it would be a great time to do so.
I did, and today was pleasant, but then again I am just a small fish in a big pond.
Fundamentals = we have cash, and we are building relationships for more cash in the future, now.
Science = we just received positive updates in the past few months.
Technicals = laid out above, and very supportive of positive price movements now and for the near future.
Draw what conclusions you may.
To provide a supporting example of my point, now the short argument has turned to "Woodford and Linda colluded to drop the share price so that Woodford could buy more at cheaper prices" Utterly baseless claim.
Any news that comes out will be spun negative by the shorts. They are like the people who would not acknowledge the world is round, despite the evidence.
We are not out of the woods yet. I do enjoy this temporary validation. I am glad that I loaded up with shares and options last friday and Monday.
Make no mistake, the short interests are not going anywhere. I wish they would, but it is their business model, and they have sunk their teeth in. It will be a complete battle all the way through FDA approval, implementation of manufacturing, and (god willing FDA approval) roll out (patient enrollment) of L & Direct. The shorts have taken the position of gravity.
I look forward to the battle, I am committed. I think (as Woodford thinks) that we have a winner here in NWBO.
Yup, this board is starting to remind me of the Jerry Springer Show. I am committed to my position, I am getting married on Saturday, I will be on honeymoon until November 7th, will look again on either the 7th, 8th, 9th.
Good luck to the patients, good luck to us longs who have been through this before (I did not think we would be back here), and good luck to management. Hopefully we get some additional substantive press releases while I am away.
I would argue that the press release yesterday would be considered substantive as they mentioned in a PR that there are not aware of an fundamental reason for the price decline. If they had fundamentally negative information that they are withholding and it comes to light, a PR like that would be a nail in their coffin. I don't think that is the case. I could be wrong, I do not think I am.
Yup,
I bought 200+ shares on Friday
I bought 400 shares and 5 jan16 $6 call options today
For what it's worth take a look at the NWBO chart for a 2 year period. Last year we had almost the exact same chart. Take into consideration last year and what happen after October, I think we will see a similar if not greater increase in the stock price than we did in 2014.
To correct your comment all the puts listed are in the money. With puts, "in the money" means the strike price is greater than the current stock price. With calls, "in the money" means that the strike price is below the current stock price.
Hence "in the money" meaning if you exercised the option, the option would have some intrinsic value.
"Well the Market says sooo" that is my sarcastic voice.
I agree with your point.
Let's see if this works. I attempted to include an image (URL) to this post reflecting a 2 year chart of NWBO. For what it's worth October 2014 and October 2015 appear strikingly similar. If the past in anything like the current then we may be at a low point. I hope so. I don't expect a huge jump in the price any time soon.
Please expand your POV on management and why you think they are doing things their way, or why you understand they are doing things their way?
I agree, my thoughts are low of $5.50. As I stated before, compare September & October 2014 vs 2015. There are some striking similarities. I am watching the 50 day ma and the 200 day ma.
Yup numerical masturba$ion. Just attempting to inject some calculations to the emotions flying around here
Cell phones are probably a cause for the increasing rates of GBM.
You bring up a great question about SOC, I don't know. I would think, yes, but there are numerous variables included in that as well.
I hope the L is proven more effective than SOC with better QOL. That would make a great case for the product.
So if we assume L receives approval, if the P/E was 25, to sustain a 2 billion market cap we would need 80 million in earnings. If the patient's procedure cost 100K with a 30% profit margin, we would need 2,667 patients annually. There are a lot of variables in that calculation, it's just a rough estimate.
I recall (loose recollection) USA has 12k diagnosed GBM's per year, and Europe has 10K per year. Let's assume 22K GBM's per year, at 2,667 patients a year is a 12% market penetration.
Knee jerk response, maybe thinkorswim has that data available for analysis.
Shorts I'll give you this one,
let's assume L is 70% chance failure, and in the event of a failure the stock is worth $3 (Direct still has value), and 30% chance of success (L) would create a price of $24
Failure = $3 X 70% = $2.10
Success = $24 X 30% = $7.20
Weighted average equals $9.30 ($2.10 + $7.20)
Alright let's try some analysis
What do people assume annual sales would be if L is approved?
What do you assume P/E would be on L approval?
What % chance do you see that happening?
Multiple the success event by the probability assigned to that event.
Now assume that L is a failure.
What do you think market cap/price would be in that event?
What % chance do you see that happening?
Multiply the price by the by the probability assigned to that event.
Sum the two products (success and failure) and there you have a weighted average outcome price.
What is that price based on the current market price?
What does the market say?
I saw a similar price calculation place on ONCE the other day when it was stated that there was a 70% chance of success. In the event of success the price of the stock would be (estimate) $70. If failure the price of the stock would be $9.
The price of the stock at close yesterday was roughly $51.5
Success $70 X 70% = $49
Failure $9 X 30% = $2.70
$49 + $2.70 = $51.7
One could say that the stock was fairly priced based on that probability of success/failure
ONCE dropped to $46 today
I bought insurance on 70% of my long position today to reduce my stress. I did this because my long position is self admittedly larger than I should have in my portfolio from a conservative risk position. With the upcoming real life events (wedding, CPA, and work) my stress level has been too high. I immediately feel less concerned about any drop in price, and I want to hold my core position, because this temporary storm has not changed my perception of the trial outcome.
As with most of the insurance that I buy, hopefully I never have to use it.
Great post, thank god September is almost over.
That would be wonderful.
To be clear I do think the NWBO will secure financing. I am of the belief that the trial will reach a positive outcome (in time, when that occurs I have no clue). I am currently frustrated with the lack of current follow up PR (that is my problem).
If there is similar action for September - October 2015 as there was in Sept-Oct 2014, then most of the pain is over (just a little more pain before the reward) and hopefully anyone who buys now through October will look back a year from now with at least an 80% gain, as those how bought in October 2014 lows have today.
Also to be clear, I was terrified in October 2014, I did not think we would ever see $3-$4 share price again with the updates that occurred in 2014, but I was wrong. Similar volatility remains today.
So I mostly review the YTD chart for NWBO. Every so often I expand the chart back to include more time, today I reviewed a 2 year chart. Interesting similarities when comparing September 2015 to September 2014 specifically set your chart up for a 200 day MA and a 20 day EMA.
I recall how dark it was back in September and October 2014. We were literally close to BK (or no cash to continue). Then we received notification of financing from Woodford and that set off the trajectory we experienced all 2015 until the end of July. Time flies. We may experience some continued downward price movements until we receive something to shock /jolt the price back to life.
Comparatively speaking in September 2014 the 20 MA cross the 200 day MA, which brought us down to the October 2014 lows. Had you bought on the October 2014 lows would have roughly an 80% positive return today. That same 20 MA crossing the 200 MA is happening now and appears to indicate further weakness. The MACD is still signalling a buy but appears to be turning. The stochastic is getting close to signal a buy. Mixed messages is the point.
There is a strong possibility that we will seem similar lows (hopefully not the same price low as Oct 2014) but if data comes out positive/financing occurs, then that should put in the support needed for a new positive trajectory.
Tough days
Don't, I thought it was a humorous post.
All rise, the honorable CaptainOblivious has entered the room.
All take a seat, court is now in session.
Ding Ding Ding Cherry is the winner!
Tasty you have yet to respond to my question earlier.
The only logical answer is that your silence is in fact acceptance that your assertion about never PR'ing negative news is incorrect.
Have you forgotten about when they mentioned the news of expanding the trial?
That was not good news in the sense that the trial would take longer to complete.
They PR'd that news.
Your claim of never PR'ing negative news is rendered inaccurate.
Do you disagree with this?
Just dipped my toes in
found this, will keep looking
http://google2.fda.gov/search?q=citizen+petition+tracker&spell=1&client=FDAgov&site=FDAgov&lr=&proxystylesheet=FDAgov&requiredfields=-archive:Yes&output=xml_no_dtd&getfields=*&ulang=en&&access=p&sort=date:D:L:d1&entqr=1&entqrm=0&wc=200&wc_mc=1&oe=UTF-8&ud=1
I've known that we are a target. I was blown away by the MDA fiasco last year. Now this information about submitting requests to the FDA for drugs to not receive acceptance!?! Without any qualifications to base the decision (other than financial gain). Absolutely awful. I'd bet there are worse examples that are not listed. I am pissed by this, it does not sit well with me. I have written complaints to SEC before and they will go no where.
That's what I don't get. The premium for those LEAPS are so expensive relative to the short term options, for risk coverage.
My knee jerk response is that there is not a large enough market in the short term options to cover the amount of risk exposure for their position so they have to go farther out (expiration).
That is awful! I noticed somewhere someone posted "karma will catch up with this guy" the problem is, maybe karma is not real. In the meantime this guy is running around doing this as a day job making a lot of money on the suffering of others and restricting scientific research and progress, just awful.
He thinks we are all losers, everyone who is not him or with him is a loser, a "mark", to be picked off/cleaned out.
Anyone who is reading this and practicing this way, note this,
You are the despicable scum of the earth
I also understand that my words will not change you in anyway.
Same goes for you, pal.
Despite your assumptions, you do not know the outcome of the trial.
I also like the reassignment of Malkovich, he is too great an actor to play Fraudstein, that role would be beneath Malkovich.
Clint Howard is actually Ron Howard's brother. He was in a cheesey horror movie a long time ago, that when I think of AF I think of clint howard in this movie
http://www.gstatic.com/tv/thumb/dvdboxart/23361/p23361_d_v7_aa.jpg
Furthermore, I made my requests respectfully. I am not telling anyone anything, I am just a long term shareholder making a respectful request to provide an update about a matter that was previously identified by management.
As a shareholder I have the right to make that request, whether it is fulfilled, is another issue. I don't think my request was unreasonable or out of place.
Hahaha, Thank you for the laugh. I appreciate the Baryshnikov inclusion and the humor!
Although I am a terrible dancer, if you knew me that reference would be even more funny than on paper.
Hopefully I don't get a personal response from the emails I sent to Les & Linda, hopefully we all get a PR from management.
Management, from my opinion, long time shareholders would appreciate a follow up PR from you that states general information along the lines, per our press release on August 21st we said we would be submitting data in the next couple of weeks, to follow up, we have submitted the data that we said we would, we will issue an additional PR upon complete response from regulators.
I don't think that would jeopardize integrity of the trial data, and it would show action/follow through on what was publicly stated previously.
Yesterday was exactly one month since August 21st PR stating in a couple of weeks.
I understand that assembling the data may take time, and maybe the data has yet to be submitted. In that case, fine, there is nothing to PR.
But, if the information has been submitted, simply PR'ing that you submitted the data as indicated in a prior PR would provide credibility, during this period of uncertainty (I say uncertainty because as shareholders we do not know what is happening behind the scenes, therefore we are uncertain)
I think Paul Giamatti could play Jim Cramer
Alright, if the answer is 10 weeks from surgery to enrollment and 5 weeks from screening suspension then ......
do we have another 5 weeks, at least, to wait for any type of response?
From the press release on Aug 21st
The Company is in the process of preparing the trial information for regulatory review and anticipates submission within the next couple of weeks.
Would it be to much to ask for a press release stating "to follow up, the information that we said we were going to submit has been submitted, we will follow up upon completed response from regulators"?
Or am I off base for requesting that?
That whole point of having an order to sell open at a higher price seems like nonsense to me.
If you really want to make sure that your shares are not available for shorts to use, try this.....call your broker/financial institution and confirm if your shares are held in an account that would allow them to loan your shares out. Generally this happens with margin accounts. But if you don't know, call your broker/financial institution and confirm.
If you find that your NWBO are available for loaning out, consider holding them in an account that does not allow them to be loaned out.
If his employers did that we would see a new user name "icdarkness" show up discussing the benefits of NWBO.
Until then we are left with "iclight"