NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[TZOR]

Alright let's try some analysis

What do people assume annual sales would be if L is approved?
What do you assume P/E would be on L approval?
What % chance do you see that happening?

Multiple the success event by the probability assigned to that event.


Now assume that L is a failure.
What do you think market cap/price would be in that event?
What % chance do you see that happening?
Multiply the price by the by the probability assigned to that event.


Sum the two products (success and failure) and there you have a weighted average outcome price.

What is that price based on the current market price?

What does the market say?


I saw a similar price calculation place on ONCE the other day when it was stated that there was a 70% chance of success. In the event of success the price of the stock would be (estimate) $70. If failure the price of the stock would be $9.

The price of the stock at close yesterday was roughly $51.5

Success $70 X 70% = $49
Failure $9 X 30% = $2.70

$49 + $2.70 = $51.7

One could say that the stock was fairly priced based on that probability of success/failure

ONCE dropped to $46 today