Retired
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So true and disappointing. The theories of clearing amyloid plaques as the answer has failed. Now is the time to move on to new theories such as mitochondrial disfunction and restoring cellular homeostasis and reducing inflammation. The timing is ripe for blarcamesine to prove out it's MOA in both Rett Syndrome and AD and shortly thereafter Parkinson's disease and it's dementia.
That's the plan....
Yet here you are with your opinions. LOL
Weren't you one of the pumpers in the early days with nothing but positive things and now you flip to the negative?
You've made your opinion on the use of AUC well known and choose not to agree with the explanations as to why it was used due to low "n".
IMO, they probably won't be very selective with Rett Syndrome, as what is there to hide? If $AVXL wants to get a foothold in the rare diseases space, it's going above and beyond the minimums, assuming of course S1R and muscarinic modulation is upstream enough and disease modifying as suspected in multiple indications.
LOL on posting to wrong post. I had figured as much. ;)
This last week I learned my brain processing at 55 seems to now get WAAY overloaded on theme park rides when the vestibular inputs and visual inputs are off as in modern rides. But, when on a regular roller coaster I'm fine.
That's my off/on topic ramble. Come on scientist figure out this homeostasis stuff the sooner the better and the FDA and other regulatory agencies best not slow them down.
I said nothing about endpoints. you did. I said "maybe $AVXL will release results for all of the measures? RSBQ, CGI-I, and an anchored score."
Also I was responding to your AUC ramble and looking forward not backward.
Trofinitide set the precedence and Anavex is following it. My comment was regarding the future, you're addressing the past as if set in stone.
The FDA is lame, but I do believe they adapt to science as presented.
IR is useless, only 8K's matter at this stage.
With this much time gone by maybe $AVXL will release results for all of the measures? RSBQ, CGI-I, and an anchored score. I like the anchored score idea because it just seems to make sense and I think the FDA will appreciate the effort. In fact so much so it will be used for future studies in Rett Syndrome. And for the topic at hand regarding the use of AUC it will be a footnote specific the the study it was used in.
I'm in the WGT group for Rett Syndrome based on anecdotal RWE.
Well Leo has been on ignore for a few years, a blowhard with nothing to offer. Investor2014 emphasizes the negative, but at least offers up info and/or a decent analysis even if we disagree.
The uplist from OTC to NASDAQ and the market cap growth to be added to the stock indexes and their representative ETF's was absolutely meaningful.
When they speak objectively both are fine, but their tendency to subjectively dwell on the negative make their contributions FUD'ish.
Great thanks for the info.
You have to pay money to figure it out. While I knew the rough estimate from working in the industry and free sources.
I no longer subscribe to institutional ownership services as it's not needed for the broad-based multi class asset management I currently perform.
tak skal du have
The real answer is that the data services provide the names and amounts of shares held but research into those entities is required to truly know that entities trading strategies. This is particularly true of 13f filing versus NPORT filing of mutual funds whereby their overall strategy is in the prospectus.
Basically as per his modus operandi this lack of concrete data is in his realm of turning unknowns into negative narrative.
Well show us again the current numbers of Refinitiv's breakdown of 13f filers and their assumptions of active versus passive institutional investors.
We must use different definitions of which entities are "non-indexed" I disagree.
This also displays the weakness of using institutional ownership as a factor to be long or short.
When we started the institutional ownership was ZERO.
MM's and the index funds primary owners agreed. But, with some added breadth among smaller hedge funds and family offices and that represents more than 1% you claim.
My daughter has a similar tendency toward exaggeration as you. ;)
You have made a fair analysis of the risks and that sentiment is definitely reflected in the share price.
Bravo for speaking direct and clearly.
$AVXL is in friggin the riskiest asset class out there microcap biotech. It's history and origin story as we've discussed accounts for the low institutional ownership numbers and the largest owners are the index funds and the Market Makers.
Those who agree with risks, but need downside protection should investigate a option collar strategy, but they will miss out on the big payday.
Stupid question, but how do you post a picture? or Which websites a have easy to create charts and then post a link to replicate?
Some of us are good at painting a picture with words. 123Tom is particularly good at that. I can read his comments and visualize it well. I don't really have such skills.
Technically I believe the MJFF is the entity doing the financing and the "Shake it Up Foundation" will be doing the actual work down in Australia. Also, I believe the Shake it up Foundation is also supported by Australian government grants.
I've done some fundraising for both entities and I'm very excited to see them get started.
Quotes from the 10-Q are now FUD? LOL!!!
Oh Georgejjl you are the boards worst enemy yet don't seem self aware enough to understand how or why. LOL
Here are some direct quotes from the 10Q which may help. Of course jackass Geoegjjl yelled "FUD" It's the official SEC financial filing you dumbass that's not FUD... LOL!!!!
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172639009
I can tell you that financial wise Dr. M has done an outstanding job navigating $AVXL from near bankruptcy while trading on the OTC to cleaning up the reporting and capital structure to uplist and ascend to the top tier of NASDAQ.
Now as far as trial result reporting which is a completely different arena It's my understanding the "odds ratio" method of reporting of the AD was not standard and for the Rett readouts the use of RQBQ AUC and anchored to the CGI were also non-standard.
So either $AVXL is a standard faire bullshit biotech selling worthless paper through the equity financing agreement with LPC, or it's not, that is yet to be determined with the next batch of readouts.
Investment wise I tell the very, very, few people I recommend $AVXL to anticipate it being worthless.
I have always enjoyed integrating T/A with my larger macro economic views to maximize returns. Also, I've been an extensive $AVXL covered call seller and T/A helps me a lot in sorting out the magnitude and time part of the equation.
Looking forward to a troll free zone to chat here.
Hey there team T/A apparently I posted here once back in 2017. Nice to see you folks here.
I've been in $AVXL since 2014 and is currently my largest speculative holding. I worked at Schwab for 19 years from 1994 to 2013 in many roles including High Net Trading team broker and manager, then toward the end, as a financial compliance manager and specialized risk manager overseeing the highest risk option accounts. I just recently retired and shut down my financial "consulting and education" business where I operated on a thin line between needing a securities license or not for close friends and family.
As far as investing goes, I'm now a boring ass well diversified across and within asset classes type with an obsession with $AVXL.
The $AVXL board waxes and wanes with good posters, but T/A is definitely a niche not everyone appreciates it usefulness.
At the rate the biotechnology sector is laying people off, $AVXL should be able to secure some good talent from many sources.
The layoff tracker is grim: https://www.biospace.com/article/biospace-layoff-tracker-2023-athenex-shutters-facility-cuts-staff/
Are we discussing our opinions on what is factoring into the market price or are we here to stroke off to our confirmation biases?
I'm simply stating that to the MARKET, the WGT tone has not taken hold.
Regardless of the details, the results as read out thus far have been completely discounted by the market and that's not FUD, it's reality.
There are multiple components that have influence upon a company's share price. $AVXL's share price is also subject to valuations granted similar companies within the same sector for example the $XBI.
IMO, the only factor than can break $AVXL from the "current challenging risk adverse market" is validation of it's claims by 3rd parties (i.e. peer reviewed publication) and/or presentation of such with "standard measures" as apparently the "odds ratio" is not impressive enough to warrant a break away from the doldrums of the sector.
The $XBI and $AVXL are again WEAK and seeking price stability most likely at a support level at ~ $75 and $7.50 respectively.
Well that chart sure went to crap fast. LOL!
Tough day for the $XBI too.
So will market conditions create a flag or a pennant this time?
Recognia, an automated "tea leave reader" for technical analysis patterns, called out a "Megaphone Bottom" with target $9.80-$10
Could get interesting
Citadel is a market maker, they may be long or short securities in the course of business and not a "shareholder" in the same sense as an investor.
Yes, an upward move on big volume followed by a downward retracement on lower volume is bullish.
Even when you know your lessons well, sometimes the market will hand you you own head on a platter.
I had 1/2 of my large ~$3 cost basis position called away at $7.50 just as the first rally to $15, then $25+ happened in 2021. I remained the consummate professional, but that stung. And best of all my folly was all documented here on iHub. LOL!
I used to use covered call writing extensively back in the day for income and to goose up returns at the risk of lost opportunity. But, I was neutral bullish and the strategy made sense until the AD sector became a shiny object for retail covid cash traders doing crazy things to the market.
Demand surge was short lived, then volume slowed to allow for T/A based MM trading dynamics to take over resulting in testing of the retracement levels.
I was probably not being clear enough or added enough context, but I the point I was trying to make was institutional level market participants and Market Makers who short shares have a supply/demand of shares that operates behind the scenes of which every share held in a margin account applies to.
"I want to know how hedge funds can, without the cooperation of shareholders (bas excepted), can drive the stock price down. What are the mechanics of this."
With proper training, sometimes those kids with a gun become Marksmen.
Options are awesome and powerful tools when used correctly.