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Lol...I remember back then too.
Price made its historic bottom at 16 cents. I managed to buy a lot around there, and the chart showed resistance around 40 cents, and it was the same game of trading as it is now. I sold a lot at 80 cents and made a good trade. When the reset happened ,the price numbers were 4x higher but the game was the same and when price bolted to peak at 14.80 I was screaming at people to take profit and be careful. And then we watched it collapse down to 3 dollars.
I am as hopeful as anyone, I've been invested since 2010. ( Was I a little early? ??) I love the idea of 100 dollars a share. In fact discussing with my wife, I said again, this stock can make us 2 million. But the reality, from trading cycle to cycle, is that I'm telling her one day, "Honey, our stock went up 100k dollars"...and now...would I, once again, tell her it went all the way back down. ? Buy the bottom, sell some at the trade tops.
K123, my guess for bottoms around 3, is based on a stock market crash. Which hasn't begun yet,but there's still strong anticipation for it. It's very challenging now to make any sense of what the AVXL price action is doing now. A good rally surge is completely erased now. Totally disgusting. What the trading computers are able to do with the shares. The trading systems have targets programmed, and all we can do is guess right or wrong. 15 was a good profit target for trading that rally wave. Then the pullback expected began.... and my trading targets were looking for support around 11 - 10 area to buy and rally back. But now we see a slam down looking at 8 and into the 7's. I remember saying a few weeks ago, that the older wave bottom at 7 was reactivated ,as a pattern target, as an outside possibility.... and now we're looking at it. I didn't think the bullish news would fail to hold support at 10. Now the downwave looks dominant again to my eyes. Major resistance around 10- 11.50,and those MAs are waiting. Buying more here at 8 is a target, and into the 7's. But now I'll have to sell my 10's and 11's at break even. Wasted dry powder. Last week, the chart looked very bullish to me. Targets 16-18 -20. Now, looking at trade exit resistance at 11. For my trading, I haven't got unlimited funds , so I have to recoup my dry powder again at 11. Otherwise, I'd just hold the shares to close trade around 20 . I trust the science success. But we see once again, what wall street trading game can do... all the time.
Congratulations to the good traders
who took some profit at 15.
Today's continued plunge/collapse down toward the 11, looks not too bullish to me.
Heading into December 1st.... price is moving in the wrong direction .
In the big picture since the 7 dollar/7.50 Bottom...we saw a nice double to 15. an 8 dollar move.
Since that peak, we have a fast collapse down almost 50 % of the 8 dollar move.
7 to 15 to 11. Is that ok? Is it bullish? Do we still have the upward pattern of higher higs and higher lows. 11 is critical to hold.
Nidan, thanks for your comments, I agree with all that.
Sab, do you think the rally
will continue to climb into the December 1st presentation?
Is that a time frame to examine now?
We got a good rally in the last few weeks especially this week. I had to trim a few shares today at 14.50 .I get too cautious in these surging rallies that have always gotten slammed back down.
Now, we have the long awaited breakout above the 13.40 resistance .
now, we also have a double from the 7.25 bottom . The larger chart picture has resistance at 16 area. 18 seems a big target to me.
I agree with what youre seeing.
and if one is very nervous about the current stock market and global turmoil... I worry that there is a crash coming some day.
Those of us who loaded the truck a few years ago at 2 dollars and 3 dollars... have a lot of unrealized profit sitting in the portfolio. Yes, its my Core that I say I will never sell, but what a shame it would be to watch it evaporate in a crash. I plan to trim just a small piece to add dry powder ,just in case I have a chance to load up again at 3 dollars in a crash.
I wish I knew how to trade options
but I dont.
Best of luck to you. I dont imagine price will plunge that low,unless the market crashes soon.
Thanks, Steve. good post.
That big AVXL chart makes me thing we could see a retest of 9 dollars again. Remember back around 2016 when the top was around 14. and went to 2 dollars after that. now the cap seems to be at 13 for now. It was great to see the surge to 31 and 28, but all this time floating around 13 10 7 9 10, 13, its not even close to 30 or even 20. Its as if its telling us that the top zone is 13 for this cycle. even 15 and 16 is a resistance waiting to be reached. and thats still half way to 30. That surge to 30 was very premature. I believe the smartest traders sold a lot at 30.
I'm waiting too.
still waiting... only noe, I'm waiting even harder than last year. the time is supposed to be very soon. maybe around election time, November. I have no idea when they will trigger the events. but the trigger events are there waiting to happen. Its not a figment of the imagination. The "war-like" events are ready and waiting. There's nothing wrong with having a good stash of dry powder to use in a crash bottom event. I'm certainly not eager to buy more AVXL at 11 dollars. I cant wait for extreme bottoms if a crash happens.
What Ive been buying in the meantime these days, on sale, is PSLV and PHYS, at the 52 week lows recently.
good post ,Sab.
I didnt think 11 would hold. here we are now with a decent looking jump to 12.
we can watch the steps below and above easily enough. The 12.40 target overhead, or the 11.40 support below seems like a playing field. steps along the way, for resistance are the usual same steps it fell down . 12.40/12.60/12.80 area. 13 would be an important test. I had planned last time to take some profit at 13 but I second guessed my plan. Would I sell some this time? I dunno. maybe a little bit at key targets on the way from 13/14/15 and 16. How long ago was it at 14 to 21. Early in the year? it bounced at 16 a few times and retested 23/21/20/18 and then cascaded down to the 7 bottom. This 13 resistance is the big one to overcome now. The perfect trade for these cycles would have been buy 7 sell 13, buy 9 sell 13, buy 10, sell 13, buy 11 and sell 13?
This week seemed like a lot of gambling spirit to me. and I dont want to be gambling. Gambling that 13 wouldnt get hammered down (it did) gambling whether 11 would hold or not.It did. now gambling what to do if it hits 13 again. or will it fail sooner, like 12.75.
I dont like that gambling feeling. But if you get the targets right... its worth trading a little.
You expected the upward movement today? Maybe you meant later in the week ?
Congratulations to traders who stayed with the trade plan
and took some profit at the 13.25 target.
I had that trade set up too, but changed my mind at the last minute as I bought into the bullish hype for higher rally. Proving once again, that investing/trading is Always an act of gambling. Playing the odds, placing a bet, just like at the casino.
It is always gambling. Playing the technical trades is always the best choice. I decided to embrace the hype for higher momentum rally. and today proved me wrong. Greedy to hold the trade for 14 , I gave up the easy profit at 13. Good trading means....stay true to your technical plan.if you have good technical chart analysis, stick with it and make the trade. and dont buy into the hype. 80% of the time ,good TA will make profitable trades right at your targets. Stupid me for listening to the greedy hype.
Today hit the resistance target zone 13.00-13.40
and got sold down as you'd expect. Now the battle begins over the next few days to retest the 12.70-13.00 resistance shoulder.
I had my sell target set in the docket to trigger at 13.20 ,waiting, but last night, decided to remove it and give the bullish sentiment a better chance to move higher over the coming days. We'll see what happens.
Higher targets at 14 would be a breakthrough the 13 resistance of the past half year. so maybe it could stretch to 15 and 16. But for me, the gamble is whether we see a Market crash happen first, in the coming few weeks. or if that forecast is another false alarm ,like we've been having for the whole past year. Ive been watching closely the Intel warnings and market signals for the "impending market crash" since October 2021, and it still hasnt happened yet. We've had a downwave year, to retest low support zones, but thats not the crash. We have also had the bounce in the market back into resistance (S+P around 4200-4300 area) and the latest downwave happened from there to the current low zone in recent weeks, but this too is not 'the crash'.
So I'm still watching and waiting. Would it happen after the elections ,first week of November? Its a 2 week window, that we have to watch .
Where would a nice rally continue for AVXL, the major resistance target zone is back at 16 area. after overcoming 13. But if we get a market crash, where are the AVXL targets at the bottom zone, I think far below 7. Looking at 5 4,3 area
In this current rally wave ,it was nice to buy at 7.20,nice at 9,and nice even at 10 the other week. but IF the market would crash, even 7 should get wiped out, and bargains would start looking better around 4 .
Will the current rally have enough time to climb into December 1st, or will it get pre-empted and shattered by a crash in November is what I'm watching now.
Good trading and investing to all.
I agree with everything you said, Sab.
Support at 9 looked good, and now here at 10.00/10.50 is the place to watch. I'm looking at the targets around 11 to 13 now, and I have not been considering the awaited great news. Technical charting is not supposed to consider the fundamentals. But,I do try to consider them at least a little bit. If the great news is coming soon, maybe we have a race to see which comes first, the pop to 15 or the crash to 5, 4 and 3. So far,all the recent price action, has been completely technical
Looking again now after a week has passed
we're getting a slow rally,climb the steps into resistance ,whuch is here at 11 and all steps upward toward 12 and 13, its all resistance in this area ,in my view. Tomorrow will end the week. I wonder if it pops to the next target area around 11.50,will the rally end there and start a pullback. or would it grind higher next week.
I believe the market will be crashed in the coming month. but its impossible to predict exactly when. . I'm watching the S+P chart for the same signals. The S+P danger zone looks like 3900-4000 area to me. That could get triggered as early as next week. maybe it will grind higher over two weeks and then get triggered.
These are just things I'm watching for.
Avxl has bounced from the 9 bottom area ok, but if the market crashes.... where would the crash bottom be to buy AVXL.? would we be looking at 3 dollars? 2 dollars? 4 dollars? hard to guess. I just want to make sure I have some good cash on the sidelines waiting .
I dont like the idea of selling any shares soon here at 12 dollars, I'd rather have more time, and see it climb back, with news , to target 16 again. but how long will that take. when is the next great news to trigger a rally? Will it come first before the crash happens? I'm anticipating a market crash inside the next month. and wanting to sell a few shares to raise more cash. The only consolation for suffering through a market crash, is to have dry powder ready to buy more AVXL at 3 dollars, if it happens.
I'm looking for a follow through to the 12-12.50 area,not sure it goes there in 1 day, but in a few days maybe. But to run from 8.90 to target 12.50 area would be a 40% move.in just a few days.
when would it sell off.
I agree with your sense of it.and I'm just as Peeved as you are. The bounce from the 8.90 bottoms,looked ok the last time but once again, falls back down. It shows us a tight range from 8.90 to 9.50 with 9.20 resistance in the middle. I sense the next tradable move is still the 1 dollar. And I thought we might see it going up to the 10 area. But,nope...now it's looking for the 1 dollar down ,the twists and turns going nowhere. But the dollar down targets could visit 8.50 / 8.25/ maybe 8 ?
And we move another week closer to the market crash.
A down week, retested 9 dollars. Ending the rally pattern from the last 9 bottom. The rally that made a decent bounce from 8.90 to 10.40, had a chance to develop an upward pattern. But that chance failed this week. And dissolved the upward bias .Now, in my view, the bias changes back to looking downward. Targets at 8.50/ 8.00/ could we see 7.50 again?
The greater wave from 7.25 to 13.25, could retest the 7 bottom. Why would the sellers stop here at 9. The stock market is bias crash down, the bias is looking down. Down for avxl means 8 and 7. And a crash could mean 5,4 and 3.
.................................
A good rally this week would have held support around 9.50 and targeted 11.00/ 11.50 next few weeks. Instead, the failure, and bleed back to 9 is now looking at 8.50 and lower.
and Australia opened big down for wednesday.
Will we see a bad down day in 5 hours? will it be ominous now?
https://www.9news.com.au/finance/asx-stocks-almost-sixty-billion-dollars-lost-after-opening-us-recession-fears/c2799889-0691-400b-a357-e921ba5eec49
I agree with you.
Looking at the targets at 9./ 8.75./ 8.50 in the picture next. Maybe 8.25 and 8.00 some day.
One of the interesting aspects of investing is to try and learn trading skills, fundamental analysis is the god for some people,while chart and technical analysis is for others. If someone had developed trading skills, they could have bought AVXL for 16 cents in late 2014, which I did. and sell half at 31 dollars or sell half at 14 dollars and then buy it back at 2 dollars, and sell the 28 dollar or 31 dollar peaks and rebuy at the lows, and make a lot of money already, while we wait for the pie in the sky when the science is successful.
I've managed to do some of that good trading, but not as perfect as I would have liked.
Since the peak at 13 dollars...
we watched lower highs and lower lows ,
and now that 10 dollars (10-10.60 area) failed to hold support the bias looks down wave to me. We can debate the details but the basic picture ,where was the old support zone in recent waves, 10.00/9.80/9.60 area .
whats below 10 is 9.60 area that would become the latest 1 dollar down. then 9.30 and 9 dollars become targets lit up now. The Range that was 7 to 13 to 7 to 13 might become activated now. it had been a smaller range from 10 to 12 to 10 and oops, now 10 didnt hold. so does the range expand again, I think it does. and we might see the lower targets get hit 9.60/9.30/9.00/8.70 etc. Would 9 dollars be a good bargain to buy as trading shares? I'm glad I didnt buy any at 10,so far.
The good news a few weeks ago.... isnt holding price at 10 dollars, and bouncing upward. What are the forces of manipulation doing with the price now. Can they sell it back down to 9 dollars? 8 and 7 dollars?
Right now, overhead resistance is at 10.00-10.50-10.80 area and all the pivot steps above that . I dont think we've seen the bottom yet in this downwave.
Capped at 10.60 resistance and down it goes. looking downward into the 9 target zone now.
I like your outlook,H
Anavex should be a winner some day.
I think Ive been getting a bit lazy looking at charts. I usually watch both daily and weekly, but AVXL has lulled me to sleep. Wathing the range from 7 to 13.
H...I thought we would see a rally follow through as well. Disappointing to see it fall all the way back to 10.
I wish my 8 ball saw things more clearly.
Do you think we can see any clues by examining the S+P chart? Its rallied up from the 3650bottom to a 4300 resistance zone now. a shoulder area 4200-4350 area, might be a time to expect a pullback soon.
Hi Steve...
The price action this week continues to roll over and go lower. next target is 10.30 and 10.00 maybe 9.80 again. It would be a complete reversal of the last rally wave. so much for good news moving the price.
You'd think we ought to see a bounce soon at this level around 10.50-10.00 area. but a bullish wave in my view would have bounced back u around 11 support, not 10 support.
Sounds like you got good news at the doctor. ??. One step at a time in the positive direction.
I'm still waiting to see the market crash happen. we will see.
Couldbebetter, our thoughts are similar.
I'm ready to buy any market crash bottoms for AVXL. Problem is , the 'experts looking at the 8 ball for clues', have been warning of the impending stock market crash for over 9 months now !? and Ive been ready with my finger on the trigger the whole time. and still, we wait. I still expect to see a crash happen. with a fast plunge and very short window of opportunity to buy crash bottoms. The question is where will that bottom be? I think we could see a crash down to 4 or 3 dollars. so even though 7 dollars seems like a great price, I'm personally reluctant to go all in at 7. and right now, traders are thinking 10 dollars is a great price to buy. Maybe it would be IF there would be no crash coming. So its a gamble on whether you think there will or wont be any crash. I think there will be. so my plan is to wait for it. I might buy some starting at 7 dollars again, and scale down from there. but as a trader, I'm disappointed with myself for Not buying at 7 last time, and selling it at 13 for a great trade. If I get another chance thats what I will do next time. I think there is still a good strategy to trade shares around a core. Right now, I see the 'trading' shares to buy at 10 dollars to sell at 12 or 13. I see my own 'trading' shares from 10 down to 7 to buy, and sell at 12/13/14 area.
My core is at 1.50,which I never touch.
10 dollars or lower seems ok to me, unless we have a stock market crash. Where would the price bottom in a crash I wonder.
Where is the best bargain low to buy? so far, 10 was ok a while back.
ok,sab, but now add today's price action to your vision and do you still see bullish energy happening? I dont. I'd say neutral at best, looking downward still, and coming off the news, this whole week has been a bearish move downward, the pullback retesting 11 so far, Last week when it hit 11.00/10.90 target it surged up into a big bounce. This time ... barely a bounce. and still fighting a battle between 11.00-11.25. Its still looking like buying at 10 was ok. and closing the trade at 11.80 was ok too. Now, this 11.00-11.25 area needs to break through to retest 12 again for any upwave to redevelop. The news was good and the future looks nice, but the price action is struggling in this zone with little upward surge so far. To me, it looks like the computer trading systems are still in control.
If the latest good news is
now digested... the positive force is not overpowering the price action if today is any clue. Resistance capping at the 12.00-11.80 area sends the rally back down today and now it looks like a neutral zig zag zone around 11 to 12 . targets lower and higher, to me look like 10.40 and 12.40 and 10 to 13. still gyrating in the previous pattern. 10 to 13 , not changed by the recent good news, so far.
I think the phrase youre looking for is
'This is nonsense'
The week ends looking upward.
but to me ,the pattern is still zig zagging up and down on a swing chart, from 9.80 to 11.80 ,from 7 to 13. lets say, tighter now, something like 10 to 12 area. The 13 target is in play and maybe the low zone is still around 10. so its right in the middle now at 11.50 area. These have been tradable waves.1 dollar, 2 dollars, and patient traders might get 3 dollars. buying around 10 was good so far. The greater stock market has been bouncing back into a resistance zone (S+P around 4200-4300) which is a danger zone for the next wave down. a set up for a crash could make a move in this type of picture. Its a right shoulder pattern, waiting for resistance to show strength now. For AVXL, that might correspond to this 12-13 dollar area.
yep and today we got the pullback
to the 10.60 target.
The larger chart does look like a cup and handle picture doesnt it. and balancing here now around 10.00-11.00 area is poised to have to go in some direction from here. The cup and handle suggests another rally of similar distance ,which would be looking at around 17/18 dollar area. but that would take good news to create that rally. .
For now, I think holding support at 10 dollars is really critical now..
in that long term chart
looks like 10 dollars has to hold strong, doesnt it? 10.00-10.50 area.
The 11.80/11.60 rally peak finished the 1 dollar pullback move today.
Pretty simple pattern math. a rally from 9.60 to 11.60, pulls back to 10.60
AVXL reaches a peak target area around 11.80
I'm looking at support to hold any pullback to 10.60 area
Nice jump today for silver