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Dogn, we are all entitled to our own opinion.
This price action is in fact reality, as it is the very consensus of perceived value of the company - which includes not just "unique real world and significant external events" but also other fundamental real grinding metrics like earnings, revenue, price to sales, etc..
Let me answer your question with a question: How do you explain the chart below, showing multiple unique real world and significant events like the R-IT presentation at the ACC and the FDA approval, etc.. Each event was met with lower prices. It's that divergence that creates effective trade setups and TA is the only effective way to recognize it.
TA provided effective predictive value to the runups to each of the listed events.
1. Nissen hit piece: prices traced a lower high prior to the release
2. FDA approval: prices upthrusted the high and failed, tracing a false breakout - indicating massive selling into strength = bearish.
3. DU judgement: prices broke down to new post-R-IT lows, pulled up and were rejected by the lowest valley - effectively confirming a "Triple top" prior to her judgement. Also at this time, the daily/weekly trendline was down along with the 20- and 200-day moving averages = all bearish indication that "something is not right".
4. Appeal: prices failed to reach the reaction high post DU and all other indicators remained bearish. Big money failed expect or forecast a win.
5. each negative earnings runup showed the same thing; rejection at falling resistance - forecasting a further gap down/breakdown in prices.
6. Finally the Denner effect which has led prices into the abyss.... hmmm???
shortly into the new year we get a mysterious "upgrade" the day before the Biotech annual meeting, followed by Denner's proxy war declaration. Once again prices were rejected at falling resistance and have traced another triple top.
Do you think Wall Street trusts what the chart is telling or do they trust in what could be an "unique real world & significant external event?"
dogn -
Doesn't necessarily have to be "his" purchase. Perhaps he's been retained to execute conditions in proxy for a hostile takeover by a BP... maybe even a EU BP or Irish BP (to comply with Irish regs)??
He walks away with a handsome ROI while saving face as a victim of a nasty proxy war that "he won, in favor of shareholders"
Dude, I liked your post because it was funny!
We need some humor to take our minds off of the ice above.
Looks like the Sarissa-Amarin war is not over. I'm sure Denner expected (orchestrated?) this. Now what? How many boobytraps have been set for the incoming board members?
This smells like a hostile takeover in the making.
Quote on 2/24/2023:
Agree. This spike is being faded by the cabal. a very obvious triple top has developed on the daily chart
wow, a perfect entry gift. LONG AMRN! Let the short covering begin.
Yes. Perhaps an Island Reversal that fills the DU gap.
Probably just the opposite. Sounds to me like Sarissa lost and is preparing to sue AMRN for looting the reserves just in case they lost. Plus, they were awarded shares priced well above the 52wk low that could soon be tested as WS sells this news.
Amarin management is shameful!
haha, I thought you were going to accuse me of being Steven Nissen!
I know it's painful to admit, but the chart I shared has been right. It was your treasure map ($26/share) and you didn't respect it. Your FOMO wanted/wants more.
I am well aware of what happened last June. He threatened but didn't act while Rome burned and his investment plummeted from 4.50 to a low of 1.04 -- that's not exactly "activist" activity.
As for the slide show, any one of us could have created a comparable slide show to tell the world what's wrong with Amarin. What has he done!? Nothing. He hasn't proposed one thing to remedy the lack of a revenue ramp except to oust those on the board. Why? Because there's little that can be done before the dwindling COH forces the remaining investors/supporters to jump ship.
I am suspicious that Denner is an ambassador of AMRN chaos - masquerading as a Savior with a clandestine goal to crush the price, capitalize on his shorts, and steal the company on the cheap. I don't think he cares at all about small retail shareholders who have been victim of all the perfect storms the past 10 years.
Well Muppet's theory is interesting.
No need to play dirty...
nope.
Missing the forest for the trees...
you do realize they did the same thing, on same first Friday before the JPM conference in 2021 with the same outcome (+75% spike ). Do you honestly think this is random one week after tax loss selling ends??
Sorry, my bad. It was Michael Yee from Jefferies and he upgraded AMRN the day before the 2023 JPM conference began.
Same big money with a different name....
Smoking gun... JPM initiated the squeeze, so wouldn't it be reasonable to logically deduce their clients capitalized on the spike by selling at +78% higher than if they would have tax loss sold 2 weeks prior?
Just profitably thinking like a criminal....
Small AMRN investors have been played again by big money:
1- JPMorgan is made aware of Sarissa’s intentions and ignites a short squeeze with an AMRN upgrade
2- Sarissa announces intentions
3- JPM clients sell into strength at the down-trendlne resistance.
4- More distribution as prices fail at falling resistance.
This price action was very predictable. Just like in 2021 when prices rose 74% from 1/7 to 2/3, they fell just as fast, down to 0 gain by the end of February.
An engineered exit for some privileged HFs on the heels of the proxy vote is what we are seeing here.
As predicted (from a pure TA perspective), this price squeeze pattern performed identical to the pattern in 2021
Trade/pattern completed. The share price still hasn't broken clean from the down trendline and there is stiff overhead resistance above - including the iceline. Movin on for now... better trade setups elsewhere.
-13.50% +/- 2%. That would retrace 50% of the recent rally, which also coincides with the 200MA ( a good entry/bounce trade to watch for).
Oh and don’t forget to ignore that trendline too! It’s worked well for you up to this point.
" triumphant return "? LOL
I didn't post during the month of December. You do (maybe you don't) know that the price of AMRN only fluctuated within .10 cent squeeze range for the whole month. Not much TA to post about when that happens. Unlike you, I don't get up every morning and check to see if my AMRN shares have been rescued by a buyout, then hang out on a chat board all day stirring mud over and over and over...
Why do you think I missed it? There was never a fallout of the support floor to trigger my stop loss. That's the beauty of a squeeze pattern. The Bollinger Bands are so narrow that it enables an ideal reward /risk ratio because you can place stop loss just beneath long term support of the price range since November. It's like "bait-n-wait" fishing.
There, now you "knowsomthingjonsnow"
P.S. It wasn't an 80% runup. Only 70%
Marzan,
R -
This rally was engineered based on the TA squeeze pattern - similar to the rally that curiously began on the Friday before the JPM conference in 2021. These unique conditions enabled JPM to squeeze shorts on the heels of an upgrade laced with FOMO as the conference approached.
Denner couldn't let a good opportunity go to waste so he through gas on the fire.
Check it out:
The Bollinger Bands were at their narrowest point on those respective Fridays 2 years apart.
Hmmm, alwayswatching and knownothing... you two make good buddies
Careful... you could be guilty of alwayswatching but never seeing
Mr. Main - There's nothing bullish about my post. I've been long since the price was 55% below the close yesterday. I sold (post#398005, "P.S.... I subtracted shares") yesterday as it traded up to the down trendline. Remember that trendline!? It has been your Achilles heel because you have ignored it for the past 3 years.
We'll see if this time is different, but the volume behind this rally is not impressive.... which means a high probability we will see higher prices rejected at this stiff resistance level just as it was at the end of the 2021 rally.
Wall Street might not let you out of this jail cell yet Mr. Main. A bear raid is coming.
Lo and behold... we have bumped into the long feared down trendline. We are about to see what happens at this very important TA pivot point.
Will we see a breakout on heavy volume that confirms a long term trend reversal...
or will this falling Trendline resistance turn prices down to retrace the 56% gain?
Add or subtract shares? Fundamental minds would love to know
For reference, here is the 2021pattern:
P.S.... I subtracted