Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Seriously?
He can’t just continue to not care about shareholders.
You are making my point for me, with the exception of Nasrat making out like a bandit. He has sold zero shares in Elite and before jumping into the "but, but, but Mikah"...that ship has sailed.
I absolutely agree...thanks for the post.
With respect to Nasrat/Elite and Jobs/Apple, what follows is more allegory than analogy...
You do know that Jobs was fired from the company he founded because the Mac only was able to get single digit market share with its sole product, right? And that he went off to found Next computer, which failed miserably. Although some of the tech generated there was used to found Pixar. However, when the two people who spent time in the CEO role - John Sculley and Gil Amelio - were fired, Jobs came back. The Mac still has single digit revenues, but we know that their expertise in integrating multiple technologies was the basis for its new products and only then did its share price take off.
Future revenues is what Nasrat controls and that is what we should expect. He does that and the company's valuation continues to grow and then Nasrat will figure out the exit plan...one that I will mirror...case closed indeed.
Right idea...but...
When we were given our options, we were told at a big rally that if deliver results our performance would influence the share price. That is the theoretical alignment HR preaches.
So, the point remains, anyone given stock knows the only way to influence the share price is to perform. Elite has performed, it has delivered 4x revenues in the past three years and achieved profitability. That the share price languishes is more on the buyers of shares (and the OTC) than the company. And for all those who argue that this proves Nasrat should make more noise, I would not disagree completely. As the hiring of Kirkov might have been PR'd and Nasrat could have had the forum to explain the larger meaning. But he did not.
A couple of reasons why it was not PR'd come to mind. First, Nasrat has some scar tissue from the "no one can stop us now" statement and/or second, there may be other issues at play. Remember the reason for not having PR'd the Dexcel partnership? To me more than Kirkov, that was an opportunity to show the company is reaching into markets more broadly and, in fact, Nasrat could have inferred the partnership could well result in reaching countries beyond Israel. But he did not and he explained why. Those decisions are his to make. We will only know if we ask at the next CC why no Kirkov PR. Nonetheless, my position remains clear, the company is better positioned than ever before to achieve success.
I do not believe that NWBO being acquired at this time makes sense for either NWBO, its stakeholders (not merely shareholders), nor for an acquiring firm.
The general belief that a pharma firm would want to acquire a business that had not as yet received FDA approval because it would enable them to drive a bargain price, makes sense considering NWBO's need for funds. Still, the company is far enough along for management on both sides to know there is no reasonably fair price with approvals looming and it requiring a shareholder vote. To approve an acquisition now would put a ceiling on what will surely be a notable increase in share price. Again, just my opinion; though it is based on some facts regarding M&A.
Unless there is something new about the business that is Elite, I can't help and, frankly, neither can the CEO of any company. All a CEO can control is the business, what they do to deal with the vagaries of the macroenvironment to develop it; not the share price. If anyone can find a different answer that suggests, infers, implies or otherwise affirms a CEO can influence the share price by anything other than real business results, please let me know. I still teach this stuff, write books and articles, do consulting, but I am always willing to learn...not from opinions but from facts!
Let me answer this...
isn't the cost of the buyout expressed in what the buyer is offering to pay in the price per share?
On this we are in agreement.
Okay that is not only spot on but funny...thanks!
Forget the products, the form and structure we see from Elite today is as good as we investors could hope for. For the aware, this is not a re-build. This is the build-out that was hoped for but not apparent...until now.
With a bow to the erudite John Hayes, it is likely we can credit the ten year rule for your insights and, for that clear expertise, I thank you.
Sky, are you not getting tired of having to pick up the mic that was clearly dropped after each post?
I feel like I am in a version of Groundhog Day!
For the final time, selling will not happen at this time. In fact, it will not happen for another two-three years, dependent upon business development and how near they are to $100M revenues. Just to be certain, to hit $100M from their current $32.2M is a 3.1X multiple. And where they are now from where they were three years ago is $32.2M / $7.5M = 4.3X. If I have to explain that...
Thanks for the comments and I concur...and will add this...Elite has never been this well positioned as a business. If we see new submissions and approvals. sales in Israel (and expansion beyond that with the very capable Dexcel), and Kirkov delivering on his mission, Elite investors can just sit and watch, the business results will not merely continue to roll in (revenues and profits), but the velocity of the growth will be excellent and the target of $100 million in annual revenues a sooner than later reality.
We agree on this...
nah, nonsense. old mb technique,
I agree...
I don't want to do simple dd for shareholders
When you come at a good researcher, it is important to get it right...
There is no absolute target of 15 cents where Elite will reverse. And the discussion of the range of 15-25 cents was NOT on the transcript. So, a couple of untidy points that make claims of victory amidst a tie a questionable proclamation.
To begin with, it is less about being right than getting it right. Just to be clear, the written transcript does not have the part you mentioned. It ends with...
Are you still on track for a NASDAQ move in 2022? Let me say this, moving to NASDAQ continues to be an objective as discussed in past calls.
I am always glad to help out an Elite investor... :)
I agree...
There is no record of Nasrat saying the share price must be 15 cents in order to complete a reverse spit. Saying that is just pure bullshit.
That is not how it works. It is not a "triage approach" to academic review, the process is linear in nature. First in first out. I know this from actually having published academic papers...those who have published know. Any other way smacks of favoritism and threatens to besmirch the reputation of the journal.
Well now...
Nasrat is on RECORD stating 15 cents is the minimum before he will do a reverse split.
It's all there.
Never doubt THE KING.
Nasrat is on RECORD stating 15 cents is the minimum before he will do a reverse split.
I believe my entire statement about Kirkov was not quoted and, as such, loses context. Specifically, mine was not a recitation of Elite's announcement. Rather, it was a qualitative assessment born of my specific experience.
I like your guesses...three very credible authors. That paper will scream - PAY ATTENTION TO NWBO...
You are spot on...
Were not done yet
Okay, let's be clear...It is the researchers not NWBO that are seeking publication. NWBO has no control of the submission or the journal process. That there is an information embargo does not preclude NWBO announcing something of value...like with the PIP....
NWBO has received approval from the UK Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) for the Company’s Pediatric Investigation Plan (PIP). The development, regulatory review and regulatory approval of a PIP is a pre-requisite for application for approval of a new medicine for adult patients.
Nice link and I have time for a quick response...
First, a little grounding...
Generic manufacturers complete on price, which is why costs throughout the value chain are critical (no, not supply chain, that is only one element of the value chain). In looking at Elite's costs controls over time, I have been impressed...and it is a credit to Nasrat's stewardship. I know there have been complaints about Nasrat discussing the Covid protocols, as if a boilerplate statement like safe harbor. Well, it is not and that degree of attention to detail is why investors should feel good about operational cost controls.
Relatedly, generic manufacturers have seen their p/s turn south, as they continue to compete across a broad spectrum of products, many of which involve well contested markets, with many in slow or no growth. So...
That Elite has its two major products in a market with high consumer demand and insufficient product availability should tell us that both increasing market share and pricing will be #1 on the agenda of Mr. Kirkov, who has the experience to pull it off. And, I could not help but note Kirkov holds a master's degree from MIT. Given the competitive nature to get into a graduate program there, that is not too shabby.
Surely someone here has written academic articles, even if not for scientific or medical journals. I keep waiting for someone to weigh in and my irritation has gotten the better of me. So...
While not hired to write academic articles, as they wanted to take advantage of my other (business) skills, I still wrote a few just to be able to give the middle finger salute to academics who never were in the business world but thought that teaching about it or researching it was the same thing. Now I write for SA, speak to professional groups, teach exec ed and, yes, teach my strategy classes that are over-subscribed. Oh yeah, I even published a book last year and for which I get royalties, which means it is being bought by (business) people. Now, why do I say that? Why even believe me? I could not care less. So, if you are still reading, here is my punch line...
Neither authors nor subjects, including businesses, that are the focus of the academic paper control the process. If that were true, it would negate the independence of the journals as well as the academic freedom so cherished by researchers and writers, and to which the approval process affords professional credibility.
Now everyone, please stop blaming NWBO or the authors. It is the journal's process and its own hour glass that times the effort.
The debt raises a number of issues, but let's focus on taxes. Why is it that the current administration believes there is a need to raise taxes? They say it is the deficit, but that is precisely why the current administration has been willing to engage in profligate spending. Why?
What the average person does not hear is the other side of that equation. Federal tax receipts are up by more than 39%...now! Individual income taxes paid rose by 68% since the 2017 tax reform, largely a result of economic growth and a boost in nominal incomes (and if you get a promotion, you may find yourself in a new tax bracket with your realized net income actually lower than pre-promotion, but I digress). Then there are corporate tax rates that have increased 21% and are expected to exceed the CBO forecast by $400-500 billion. (Though growth in business investment had been slowing in the years leading up to 2017, after tax reform it surged.)
With the stock market gains of the past few years, investors taking capital gains have contributed to the increase in tax revenues collected by the feds and states. Should NWBO shares rise significantly, many will happily take long term capital gains; which were reduced in the 2017 tax reform. However, this is also one area the current administration would like to increase. Just to make sure everyone pays their "fair share"...which is code for higher rates.
Well, among the things I learned about business is that a vision comes before a business model. I expect NWBO management to have a similar vision. As for delays, they are endemic to the business. For that I give you the histories of Alnylam and Moderna.
Fireman, fair enough. But the "translation" of the verbiage on the tape was not mine. I merely interpreted the business impact under such a scenario. Even if unsaid, a partnership should be expected. It will provide access to needed capital and frame the build out for the future. I would not except NWBO to be acquired at this point and, frankly, it would be a misguided decision that would put a ceiling on investors. Being acquired later? Of course.
N2K
Only because there were no questions asked about its title, etc. And there was so much in it that is relevant to my discussions about the business that is NWBO. Shame, real shame no research was done. I guess LOL says it all!
Please point out in what words did I say Merck was going to buy?
By the way, did you find my dissertation that you wanted to see?
Really?
Wow I think we all would enjoy seeing that dissertation thanks
Well done perspective. It is surprising how the pandemic slowing down so many drug trials gets chalked up to bad management. Another key point that you made was this...
When a new SOC is introduced, manufacturing capacity must be ready to ramp such that global distribution is tangibly close, for two reasons. 1. A successful global SOC launch. 2. New trials can utilize the new SOC for control arms in trials.
What the HELL are YOU talking about?
LCI DISCONTINUED their XR.
So?
Also let’s be brutally honest, Nasrat benefits from a low stock price for now
Good question...
what about LCI's motivation
We do not know the contract language and, having been involved in negotiating contracts (remember, I once had a big job), Elite may have language that does not require them to wait the contract out before they can begin to sell their own products. While the contract may remain in place until March, under the language Elite may have more flexibility than some boilerplate language. That is the flexibility contract negotiations provide. Something tells me Nasrat, the attorney, knew that when negotiating the deal. If not, Ken Smith let him know.