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Alea
Interesting perpsective on what it means to be on the desk top. So I'm a purchaser of an HP computer with HP protect tools on it. Citigroup now has a trusted service for its banking clients and I am one of them. Wave has helped Citigroup develop this service and they have TPMs on their servers to support this. Can I be part of this group without using anything Wave on my PC? Steven alluded to ORC and I inferred that Wave was needed on the desk to utilize TPMs to help authenticate and secure the digital certificates. I must admit I don't fully understand the digital certificate process in the first place so I don't know why Wave is key on the client side. Seems like the same question on Citibank.
AWK
I don't doubt that Citigroup will utilize trusted computing within its organization. But when will they adopt it for all their on line businesses. And assuming they do, what secret sauce can Wave provide to give them the strong inside track to link Citi with all their customers. It's not as if this prize won't be in the sights of many.
Clearly being the provider of the internal software will give them a seat at the table and with the likes of Dell behind them give them some strong opportunities to link the provider and their customers. It would even be better if the linkage worked better with Wave than other TPM client software on customer computers. It's that secret sauce that I don't fully appreciate or understand.
Waverider
I did suggest that there was a lot to consider when assessing Wave's value and probability of success. Also success is a continuum - some would think becoming a 1 billion dollar comany with 100 million in sales is pretty good. Others would scoff at less than a billion dollars in revenue and a 10 billion dollar market cap.
Since Wave is currently trying to break one million dollars, 100 million or a billion is still a ways out. The good news is since they have such skill in financing the company, they have seen 100 million dollars before - they won't faint.
As to Guv's question, it is very possible for Wave to become a 1 billion dollar company by the end of 2007. And that would be moderate success directly extrapolated from what we see today. 10 billion at the end of 2007 or ever - I am not counting on it. To a large degree, it is out of their hands. Trusted computing upgrades would need to be widely prevalent and trusted computing services would need to be more than a concept. Direct competition for what they do would need to be forestalled for another year or more. Wave would need to really lock in some more OEMs - get Hitachi and Micorosft so most encrypting on drives goes with Wave. Get Nokia and Motorola and Cingular to do a Dell-like thing with Wave. Let the federal government issue a blanket purchasing arrangement with Wave. Let japan follow. Let Citigroup, NYC, Morgan Stanley, AIG, and Comcast all utilize Wave services to connect with customers. Then you'll get your 10 billion.
I do expect to see more revealed ove rthe next quarter. With Vista coming, whatever decisons that have been made will become revealed. I don't expect wave to get them all; but it has been pretty silent for a while and there have been intimations that more OEMs and box makers will come to our side.
waverider
I am not claiming any special knowledge but you should consider a few things.
First there is a big difference between reading articles on the board and meeting people from the company or related partners at events and having an opportunity to discuss the market with them. Those who take the time to do this once in a while should be much better positioned to understand what is going on and assessing our real chances of success and the degree of that success. Also to the extent people then discuss the topic and probe deeper with others are also much better informed.
Second while the term "inside information" implies something bad if you get it and use it, there is a finer distinction between material and not material non public information. Stock analysts are paid to both capture non material non public information and synthesize it into an analysis - under the Mosaic theory this is perfectly acceptable.
The ingredients for this stew is from conversations, technical shows, articles etc.
I can see when reading this board how difficult it is to understand just what Wave is doing now and how it compares and connects with other companies who also offer products in the security space. is it competitive, is it complimentary, why would an OEM use that etc.
You're correct that there are a few people here who contribute much to our understanding but at least for me there are still lots of gaps. And I've spent more timeon this that I can really believe.
ZZT
I'm not sure how much experience you have in investing in story stocks or in irrational markets but I will note that it is quite common for someone to view the current situation and believe the underlying circumstances and opportunities are different this time. I am certainly guilty of such thoughts despite my financial background and profession.
So I don't bring up the past out of bitterness or even a feeling that there is mischief around, but simply as a reminder to stay grounded and not draw conclusions due to the price change. You are on much safer and stronger grounds when you view the market and proven results.
And in case you're wondering, I am reasonably informed about this company.
Scorpio
Actually when it was zooming towards 50, it looked much better - down right exhilerating.
To the extent there is some truth that the market looks out 6 months or so, then Wave's strenghtening has some rational - the release of Vista seems real now, Seagate intends to be selling lots of FDE drives starting in the first quarter and the government licensing and wave's pilots are moving towards resolution.
I would not entirely discount Bluefang's ramblings since Wave's price movements have been mysterious in the past. But the continued strength over this extended period was a good sign.
Barge
I have little doubt that TPM based services for consumers will come. Timing we'll see. When they do there is one important issue for Wave investors. Will Wave be able to work out deals with the big players to make this service work well with TPMs (whatever that entails) or will their success be with smaller up and coming companies where oddly Wave seems like an established player. I really don't know but making a deal with Ingram Micro is a positive sign. So was Dell and NTT. These were companies where there weren't long historical connections or personal relationships that greased the skids. We'll know it when some visible media type company announces an offering or a very tangible collaboration with Wave ( and maybe another OEM).
Zen
There are a couple of factors. Upward movement is good to pull the trigger. Also upward movement will generally mean the deal is closed at a slightly lower price than last market price as well.
While SRA can encourage people to invest, let's not forget that the investors are not idiots. If they don't like or buy the story they won't do anything especially if built in gains are not included. It's not as if SRA or anyone can just get the stock to rise by 20 to 75% through hype (at least not in 2006).
Ramsey2
it is certainly possible that IM's corporate structure is set up to have one or more independent groups tied to geography. A deal with one entity could be negotiated and made completely independent of the other. I know my firm has deals with global players in specific regions and not others. If IM operated as a fully integrated global company, then limited a distribution agreement to certain regions may not make sense. But if it impacts different leadership, systems, sales groups etc., then it may just be that Wave made good inroads there and in other parts of IM.
Weets
As you know, the prize is to have the largest embedded market share before everybody realizes just what it is worth. Time is shortening before the market realizes the long term opportunities. Having the OEMs incented like Dell and reducing opportunities for competition and increasing the perception of inevitability are all highly valuable. Also from a psychological perspective, every time Wave secures an "old opportunity" like Broadcom, it should mean a lot.
Dabears
This was years in the making. Gives me a slight hope for HP.
Barge
Do you know the deal on Vista Ultimate. I'd be interested to see if anyone including Microsoft is encouraging its purchase at this early juncture. Without a good deal the incremental cost between a lessor version than it would be problematic for many XP purchasers (including me)
Hitachi
I haven't seen or read much about the Hitachi full disc encryption drives? Has anyone.
OT Dhamster
Can you email me your address. I've missplaced the updated one. thanks
Barge
I will likely buy Ultimate assuming I can find the right computer with all I want. However if I recall the pricing of the oS and the initial editiorials about the prices, Ultimate was priced out of line -- too high -- which tells me that it will not be a hot item. Also although not definitive, the articles about Vista coupons didn't even mention Ultimate. Finally I've really not seen anything yet that says they want to steer people to Ultimate. For all those reasons, I reached my initial thoughts. Could you refer me to the specific items that tell you Ultimate will be pushed in 2007? It needs to be something other than Ultimate contains everything under the sun.
Barge
I was repsonding to your post that OEMs will push Ultimate. I don't think they will push it - at least initially. That's all I was saying. If and when the oEMs or Microsoft decide to push it, we'll get it a lot more cheaply than it is being priced at the start.
As for Xbox, SKS said to me that he viewed it as a large beta in the consumer space for trusted services. But again I didn't snese he thought anything was going to happen in the consumer space for a while - but he also acknowledged that the space was the equal compliment to the enterprise space and that Wave would be ready when needed.
Barge
Do you really think all OEMs will push Vista Ultimate or will they merely make it available in their most expensive computers. When I see special deals with Ultimate, a more rational pricing by Microsoft or other such enticements, then I will be more inclined to believe deployment numbers will be material.
architect
This notion has been said repeatedly over the past 6 years. Hopefully one day before we are dead it will come true.
wavxmaster
One can speculate forever about why the price moves the way it does on any given day or week. But there is one obvious fact - each day forward is one day sooner to the release of VISTA, and the beginning sale of Seagate's FDE drives. The latter has an obvious and important link to Wave revenues; the former is believed to be another important catalyst especially if Microsoft really has left the TPM key management software out of VISTA and left it to third parties.
Thost two items, in and of itself, are profound forgetting about everything else.
Go-kite
Service providers will do something if either a) it moves them to a competitive advantage (implies that consumers want or demand this) or b) legislation is passed making it even more expensive to not move to trusted computing.
I agree given the history with Finread and rumors in the past with some banks, that these guys are unwilling to spend more than they need to spend. But some providers did splurge for RSA tokens so when there are TPMs in consumer machines routinely, one can expect a quick move to take advantage of a lower cost securtiy option.
weby
Do you think the service providers will establish a trusted network for their customers before they introduce trusted computing in their shop? So will Citigroup role it out internally and then do something about their customers. How about Morgan Stanley or other brokerage firms. While these decisions could be made by different people it seems to me that the provider would do it first internally. I do think if Wave works with the provider internally, there is a very good chance that they will be part of the service offering - especially if they use their CSP to help write the applications for the server. And I'm sure Dell is thinking the same way.
Alea
No of course I don't think it will be a lottery winner, Maybe back 7 years ago? I agree that Michael's perspective may not be consistent with SKS'. At least SKS didn't suggest to me the same type of plan/focus. And your inciteful in noting that Michael is focused on the technology and may consider a better technology an end into itself.
I don't necessarily think SKS funds Xpress to support his brother. I'm sure his brother could get a very good job elsewhere as he is no dummy. He seems to have a gola and an idea which has not been shown yet. I do worry at times that the sunk costs influence his decision on what to do going forward. But he clearly has a view and a picture of how trusted computing will be leveraged into services and how he wants to market those services. Time will tell.
CM
years ago (and I no longer can pinpoint years), wave was seriously exploring using Embassy as a subscription management tool. If I recall, the interest from set top box makers and content providers was that every cable provider used its own proprietary box and it was an expensive way to connect people. With Embaasy and applets they could enable a single box to support multiple content providers. Now things are different but there seems some similarities and there is a thread. Ultimately you'll be able to get a stream of digital information, you'll be authenticated to that provider, charged and you can see it on any screen.
escrow
I think it is more likely that we will learn about additional OEM wins during this quarter. Client, if you mean companies, is really up to the company and in general there is little reason for a company to agree to a PR discussing their new security procedures (unless it is for external customers for competitive advantage). The latter will be much more likely in 2007.
Brewskih
There is always a dialogue around this question and the rules are not crystal clear. Insiders will tend to always know something but of course they can often buy despite this knowledge. However if they knew a major deal was going to be announced tomorrow, they could not use that information to buy right before the announcement. Are two days okay - probably not. What about an expectation for next quarter but not guaranteed - yes okay.
I tend to think people overstate the restriction as a mental answer as to why there isn't buying. Now there are many good reasons for no insider buying and the best one is that they have sufficient holdings of shares and options and that more is imprudent from a diversification perspective. So I wouldn't view a lack of buying as a negative sign but I wouldn't also view it as a positive assuming great news to come.
Jeff
The discussion is about voting machines and Diebold uses wave in the ATM. However the point is good - if an issue is protecting and managing keys, it seems that one part of their organization is familiar with a solution. It is unclear if the voting machine group knows anything and als I have no idea what systems run the machine in the first place.
Ramsey2
yes on the revenue side but the market pull to use wave's products will be much stronger if valuable services have been designed to work with ETS especially well.
Weby
I'm sure Wave knows how to do this and from what they've said, they likely engineered the tools on the Dell machine.
What I'm interested in understanding is how each software/hardware provider who wants to take advantage of the TPM on a machine will do so and whether they have special impediments if they are selling to multiple PC platforms with the different TPM flavors. Is it straightforward and logical for them to write the code (after all Dudash says any idiot can write to open standards) or are the TPMs sufficiently different to work with that this is too much of a hassle (as we are lead to believe). And then if not Wave and its CSP, are there other choices. Clearly if Wave is the go to company, that can lead to more push to get ETS in its flavors onto the PC and we get a positive synergy. I think that's the strategy but I'm uncertain of the competition or alternatives.
CM
Does UPEK's software include a bridge to the TPM on ASUS' PC or any other TPM? I've forgetten what brand Dell uses but I'm wondering how such providers will tie their products to TPMs especially if the TPMs vary among machines. I don't know if this means they will go to Wave, Infineon or write their own code.
Cosign
This is all still mysterious and Wave hasn't shown any revenues. There are probably some large positions from people who are speculating but it wouldn't be imprudent to wait and see some traction before plunging in.
Cosign
The theory being that each vendor working with the government would need TPMs and ETS to work in the trusted grid and that each company would in turn utilize wave's enterprise server and related upgrades. The service provider is the driver of wide adoption amongst its users.
Cosign
It is a possibility but I am unwilling to think that we have a lock on a billion + dollars of revenue just like that. But it is certainly a key component of Wave's business strategy.
deering
Here is the big question. How well do companies not using Wave's ETS work with ORC in terms of getting certificates and being part of the trusted grid being set up? Is this a basic requirement or just nice to have/ if the latter is the added security so valuable that this will become a requirement by the government.
I've heard some strong points but simply do not fully understand the process and ascertain where the truth lies.
CM
If Wave gets to the point where they are bringing in 5+ million per quarter to satisfy this breakeven target, I think the share price will be materially higher and they will have some license to raise the burn rate for rational longer term investments.
There is no obvious reason why they can't achieve this revenue level with existing resources and thus a spend increase would be more obviously associated with some new services, customers etc.
The one thing that can't happen is a deferral in any revenue because the market still doesn't get it. If that happens, we'll have to ask whether we get it?
announcements
It is sort of obvious that organizations would not announce their purchase of new security technology unless it helped their business. So Diebold would but XXX won't if it's not an important competitive advantage. And remember even in those cases, their client proposals can include things which are not public. Ginos PR had to do more with Chris and possibly some enticement from Dell.
Also Dell is a good example. For the first year you couldn't find anything Wave even when you searched. Now that they are ready, Wave is much more prominent.
I think Wave will say as little as possible publicly without adversely hitting the share price. And that's a dilemna because they appear to need public funding.
beacon
As a lurker, I would completely agree with your comments. The call was established in response to the TS debacle. This would not be the way to announce anything new but is an opportunity for them to better explain where they are and where they are heading.
I saw some of the hoped for questions and answers. Given today's environment, they are also not going to say anything that they are not positive about.
Silence was not an option for them because they rely so much on the public markets to fund the company. But if they had really new things to say, they would have said them before this catalyst.
wavx
This is the example I mentioned of where a service provider, working with wave, develops a trusted application that works with Wave's ETS. A company, such as one that wants to work with the governement and needs these certificates will need Wave's ETS. That will drive customer demand and also pressure OEMs potentially to have Wave's software on the purchased machines. At least that is the theory and an example of where Wave will invest money to develop highly leverageable applications.
zzt
Over the years (or is it decades) I've learned to not believe everything I've heard. I've inferred that the pilots are underway in all verticals and that at least a couple have moved to a broader implementation stage.While moving to implementation is good for some revenue, my sense is that it results in new orders per month over an extended period. More importantly any success in the vertical will lead to more orders from the same sector with some reasonable certainty. That's why they were chosen.
I think with Wave, the best bet is just to wait patiently unless you are a trader.
wavxmaster
It is no longer a question of growing corporate interest in trusted computing but the ability to execute in a timely fashion given the financial constraints, market demands and thousands of reasons for something to go wrong or meaningful competition to appear. I am well beyond the point of worrying whether there is any interest in what Wave has to offer. But what it will really take to get it working in many organizations is another story. So yes it is good that they see a need for more hires. But that is almost besides the point. I will get excited when one or two of the "opportunities" that I always hear about bloom into major sales relationships. The pilots are great - the full order is what we are waiting for.
Amp
I think they would have more sales people and would have been more aggressive getting to companies. Wavexpress might have actually persued leads. But forgetting that, lets look at today. Their strategy is to get on as many machines as possible and get their market share as high as possible during the period of relative non competition. They would be selling more and supporting more pilots and integration assignments if they had more people on board. But they don't and until the share price rises, funding such expansion is relatively expensive. So they've calibrated their efforts with their resources and have obviously relied on companies like Dell. But there are only so many SKS' and there are likely many opportunities to sell to groups.