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One good that will come of all this...good more for the economy than banks, but good...
i have one credit card and i have not used it in over two years i think...
thanks much
Cash flow positive after buying all cash or taking on a mortgage? i think we will know when a bottom is reached when the latter is true...some debt service needs to be assumed in the equation.
i've just started looking at properties in central florida myself...
Sucker's Rally? you don't say...
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/244597/Merrill's-Rosenberg-Goodbye-Thank-You-Yes-It's-Just-a-Sucker's-Rally?tickers=xlf,dia,spy,%5Eixic?sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
All i would say though is..."you go first...you step on those rail road tracks and i'll follow, promise.." :)
Can you summarize? as i don't have subscription to WSJ online...
i learned typing in high school from the biggest, baddest, meanest...ex-marine. A real nice teacher, and genuinely good guy, once you get to know him...
Same here...most likely i'll be selling covered calls against them starting next week. One way or another that protects me...either i continue to profit from sale of those calls or they get taken from me at a higher price.
Given that we will be entering the two week window to option expiration, i think that is the strategy i will be using to ease out of them..
correction: this should read...
If we close around these levels, we are going to get another short term sell triggered by the fact that the VIX and VXO are below their lower BB.
biggest issue i see on the daily charts right now is potential negative divergence...the highs here are just not with the same power as the highs back in the second half of march..and for that to change, the rally has to really kick in gear..
i like to yield to MACD divergence when i see them..either play in the direction it is telling me or step aside until it clears up.
Nasdaq 100 finding support from it's 200MA, while the Composite and the Semis fell back below their 200MA and are finding resistance there...interesting divergence of sorts.
rest of the indices clawing their way closer to that 200MA...dow projects to around 9000 and S&P to around 955.
They will get there, but the question is...how much of a decline if any before. market is definitely over extended technically, but it can remain there for sometime during strong bull runs..
time decay is actually your friend when you are on the writing side (selling calls would be a write action)...
i'm not too clear how it would have been worse. your entries would have been at a higher price..which ofcourse is preferable when shorting.
i'm thinking of closing out another half of my bank stocks (the axis of dead portfolio)...
they really have been a big winners for me this year.
Have you considered selling calls instead?...a lil less risky i think, and gives the market time to make a directional change.
Worst thing that can happen is..either you make money on the contracts you sold, or you are forced to short at higher price...not so bad since your intention was to short anyway.
If we close around these levels, we are going to get another short term buy triggered by the fact that the VIX and VXO are below their lower BB.
last time this was triggered for the VIX was on the 6th, and was followed by the retrace yesterday.
last time it was triggered by the VXO was on the 4th, 5th and 6th.
today both are currently trading under their lower BB(20,2)...unless we get a sell of in the last hour, they will likely close there. that would imply a flat to down market monday and or tuesday as the VIX and VXO moves back within it's band.
Semis having a tough day as well. As of this moment, it looks like the second largest 1 day sell off of the year...
Signifant 1 day sell off on the nasdaq...Have a look at where the nasdaq composite and nasdaq 100 is finding support...the 200MA. It's a snapback re-test of the breakout above. Will it hold?
I have my doubts based on the fact that the S&P and Dow never took out their 200 to confirm the nasdaq break above. Until they do, i don't think you can rely on an index that is responsible for drawing a large number of speculators..
the stars are beginning to align...for the hibernating bear.
i think at this point, you just have to assume that it will be bought, while keeping an eye on how it behaves here as it approaches the 200MA.
yes..it's trying very hard. the intermediate term bear in me wants to come out of hibernation...but i guess a bit of forced discipline is keeping it at bay for now.
I'm looking at the S&P and Dow and there is possibly bear/bull play unfolding here in involving an inverse H&S pattern.
If we top here, it's possible that we could retrace all the way to low 800s to paint the right side shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Roughly speaking, that could take us to around september/early october before retesting the neckline (close to where we are now). Once that neckline is broken, we probably will see yet another powerful move up into end of year..
If this scenario unfolds, then "sell in may, go away" would have been sound advice to follow..
I think we are at a significant crossroad in this market right now. The reason is...besides the nasdaq, most other indices and many individual stocks are hitting up against their 200MA.
This resistance is more important than the S&P 875 we took out last few weeks. We will need the S&P and Dow to take out their 200MA to confirm this move.
is the news out, or is it not out yet? the stress test news that is?
haven't we seen this before? buy the rumor, sell the news...i just can't figure if the news is out. lol
nice chart. i think this would be a relatively easy one to play only because your S/R is clearly defined...the 200MA. Right now that is the resistance it is struggling with.
You could buy a break above the 200MA and immediately set your stop just below the 200MA.
On the other hand, you could short it here and use a break above the 200MA as stop.
I would not use the 200MA exactly as my stops, as stocks tend to over or undershoot such S/R.
Conflicted...
i won't be initiating another short trade today out of respect and acknowledgement of the strength of bulls here as well as the trend...but what i might do is sell some puts To Buy XLF and IYF...they look toppy to me, especially with the candle that is currently being painted at the top of the upper BB. I think they want to kiss the middle BB..
based on the VIX/VXO close yesterday, the easy trade this morning was shorting the initial bounce. Now as day traders take profit from that play, the question is who is going to step forth..bulls or bears? both vix and vxo are back within their bands currently...
it might be because ultimately, what the stress test is underscoring is that whether mr. market wants it or not..the government won't allow BAC to fail.
i will admit, the behavior of the market here is erratic...bad news being ignored. that will change when the herding is over...
..most important to manage risk/money i feel.
both VIX and VXO closed under their lower BB today..with the VXO closing under for the 2nd consecutive day. That is a short term negative for the market...
A quick study that supports the notion that dips will be bought..
Nasdaq is currently working on it's 9th consecutive up week.
A quick study reveals we have had 20 instances since 1970 where the nasqaq closed up for 8 consecutive weeks. Following such an occurrence, there was a slightly better than 50/50 odds of the market closing higher over the next week.
Looking out 5 weeks however, the market was trading higher 15 out of those 19 occurrences. What's more imporant however, is the fact that it was trading significantly higher, with an average gain of +5.74%.
One reason i won't be overstaying my welcome on the short side...
raw data:
Ticker Date/Time Streak Close PctChg N1 PctChg N2 PctChg N3 PctChg N4 PctChg N5
^IXIC 1/21/1972 8 117.21 1.05 3.44 4.82 5.28 6.5
^IXIC 2/14/1975 8 73.26 0.72 -0.35 1.56 3.84 3.63
^IXIC 1/30/1976 8 87.05 0.23 2.19 4.56 3.69 2.78
^IXIC 7/22/1977 8 103.11 -2.39 -2.18 -2.28 -2.19 -3.12
^IXIC 4/28/1978 8 115.18 1.81 3.66 5.55 4.06 5.08
^IXIC 6/13/1980 8 156.59 -0.05 1.65 2.73 5.26 8.56
^IXIC 4/16/1981 8 216.64 1.35 0.02 -0.83 -0.06 1.2
^IXIC 10/8/1982 8 198.89 2.8 8.25 6.91 14.15 16.95
^IXIC 2/8/1985 8 288.4 -0.24 -0.76 -0.42 -2.08 -3.61
^IXIC 11/22/1985 8 310.8 1.03 1.87 4.25 3.96 3.86
^IXIC 3/21/1986 8 372.6 0.19 -0.11 1.69 4.7 5.29
^IXIC 11/7/1986 8 361 -0.69 -1.75 -0.39 0.55 -1.41
^IXIC 3/18/1988 8 381.6 -2.38 -1.83 0.05 -2.02 -1.99
^IXIC 1/20/1989 8 391.7 1.61 3.75 2.73 3.96 2.12
^IXIC 5/19/1989 8 442.1 0.7 2.15 2.62 1.15 1.43
^IXIC 3/8/1991 8 475.11 -1.86 -2.31 1.51 4.35 5.58
^IXIC 12/4/1992 8 661.6 -0.88 -0.05 0.65 2.32 2.36
^IXIC 6/20/1997 8 1447.1 -0.62 1.42 3.84 6.97 8.46
^IXIC 12/10/1999 8 3620.24 3.67 9.65 12.4 7.25 12.27
^IXIC 5/1/2009 8 1719.2 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03
im watching the VXO and it's bollinger bands. yesterday VXO closed under it's lower bands and currently it is trading below that lower band again. if it does close again below the lower BB, that would be fairly reliable short term buy i think, as it usually only takes about a day or two for the VIX/VXO to move back within it's band...which in this case would imply a market move down (or sideways).
i am not expecting much of a pull back, but if one does happen, i'll take it. The nasdaq will need a down week soon..it has had 8 consecutive up weeks.
Still, such streak underscores the strength here i feel and i think dips will be bought...
given that the RSI(14) touched overbought, the VXO hitting a new low, psided breadth yesterday, underperformance of the BKX, and negative divergence on the daily chart...i opened a short trade for the day. I think for the VERY short term, a retrace is due.
lol...well, i was thinking more of the type where indicators start screaming sell, but speculators continue to buy. we are not there...but i'm think this run might do it...
it would be good if it could line up with the Bradley or Gann data...but my gut tells me it may come sooner, with the stronger down turn occurring around the bradley dates.
for now though....Dow 30k! go go go ! lol...
Looks like the next leg is under way...huge day for financials. This run should take us to the irrational exhuberance phase quickly i think...
Thanks elena..Here is a visual chart of the bradley turn dates, courtesy of Chichi
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=37445964
Thanks Chi...perfect!
courtesy of elena...
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=37444596
Thanks Chi...will poke around a bit myself to see what i can find.
Hey gang! anyone have a Bradley and Gann chart handy by chance? I recall we had a couple of good ones that were posted here in the past...
thanks
Good read elena...i tend to agree with what you posted here and what you sent to me in private. While i agree that the rally can and should continue...i also think when it comes to an end, the the fall is likely to be as quick and powerful. Funadamentally (*gasp*), i feel that we need to return to what started all this...housing price need to return to a level where the average american can afford a mortgage without shenanigans. The question is when does it end?
As i recall, there are major and minor turn dates on a bradley chart...i'd be interested in knowing whether the dates in the article you are referencing are majors?
We had a bradley and gann chart that we used to post periodically here, i will try to find them...as i recall, they were uncanny in their accuracy.
Or maybe the market isn't suprised by any of this...