Dew, i saw on twitter that rvnc is your current biggest position in biotech values.

Does that mean you have trimmed your enta position ? i have not followed enta in a while but i remembered a few yrs back, you had a sizeable stake in enta.

at one time or another i had something like 75K sh of enta and i was only close to your position size, not even kissing close lol.

i booked a lot of gain selling enta in the low 50s to high 40s.

btw, with regard to enta, what do you think of recent published findings about possible cancer development with fxr agonist ? enta's compound is an fxr agonist , isn't it ? tia.

gee, i should have bought more than 2K sh not two wks ago at the last dilution.

i get it. it's a matter of "killing a chicken to scare the monkey" lol.

obviously this location has had its share of tickets and the fda cannot do anything to make it shape up. so it is holding up 40mg copax.

the delay is causing revenue loss for nvs and even bigger pain for the small fry that is momenta. if the pain is big enough for nvs/sandoz it will cause them to put real pressure on pfizer if there is enough $ involved between the two sides and i suspect there is plenty.

Dew, how does this pfizer plant troubles in the past square with 20 mcopax approval in 2q2015 ?
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But in a note to clients this week, Manoj Garg of HealthCo Research, pointed out the long history of issues at the former Hospira plant which Pfizer got with its 2015 buyout of the generic drugmaker. He said the plant received Form 483s in quarter one 2012, quarter two 2012, quarter three 2013, quarter four 2014, quarter two 2015, and most recently in quarter two 2016 after the inspection in May and June
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well i understand this is an issue between sandoz and pfizer. if cw can't talk much about mkting issues related to 20mg copax, he certainly can't say anything about legal issues. my take that 90-99% of this problem is in the hand of the party responsible for production ie sandoz.

if sandoz wishes to sue its contractor, it is sandoz's decision. however my common sense tells me you don't want to do that. it is not optimal.

retailers are quick to think of legal recourses when they lose $. but as a business, it is a last recourse imo.

also i thought craig mentioned early in the cc that in a few days when the warning letter is made public by the fda, we will know more details about the issue(s) at hand.

yeah but... but i need ampha loaded to be able to pay damages for m-enox.lol

that day of reckoning will come. i added mnta today. will add more on days that general mkt stinks.

lol,tx flo. Back when i was a design engineer for hewlett in the 80s when it actually manufactured something here on mainland, production debugging was always the last step , long after the demo, the lab proto etc ...

based on that experience i was just guessing that 40mg copax approval process is just about at the end but it is good to have a well informed investor like you. i am more of a reckless and lucky bastard type lol. buy first and investigate later.

i have currently a 6K stake in the low 10s, some i got as low as 10 and a few pennies. so if mr mkt dumps mnta next mon, i will add more.

ps
"The ability and willingness to take risk are not always equal for most investors.
Charlie Munger is a one-of-kind. It’s good for investors to remind themselves of this when trying to emulate him. Very few can." i do my damnest to copy the guy.

Rarely do I buy/sell in AH mkt. I will wait for Tue morning.

There is a silver lining though. Now I know at what stage the approval process is at. I will add more if it dips.

Mr Mkt is dominated these days by day traders. for cheap pps stock like gnmx, they only look for 25c to 50c change ,which is a 10% rise. That may or may not attract other traders. As a rule I stay away from these stocks.

Still CLF is 90% down from its height when the chinese bought everything under the sun related to coal and steel. As I remember as the result of the great recession of 07-08, the chinese reflated their economy with infrastructure spending causing massive imports of foreign coal and steel which in turns caused many western coal and steel cos to overreach with dire results a few yrs later. At least clf is still standing, i'd give them that much credit which is nothing to sneer about.

I concur.
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"I disagree on this as I think his general messages are quite consistent, it is interpretation of his messages and means to implement his messages by others that are inconsistent. Many thought and hoped he'd give up on some of his promises, it hasn't been the case."
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Dew, who would be big enough to buy BMY. I don't follow big pharmas much so i don't have the details down, besides being aware that mrk,jnj,lly etc are ... big :)

for tril it's neither here nor there. the reproducibility issue doesn't apply to CD47 for the simple fact that other companies wouldn't plunk down $$$ to start on any project unless they did confirm it themselves.
that is what my common sense tells me lol.

Guyer is so oily.Days before announcing disappointing P3s results, OPHT put on new hiring announcements on linkedin so as to support the pps for mgt to sell.

Lower cost is not the only issue. Safety is more important imo. A few yrs back, I remember reading an article in Fortune in which an Indian drug manufacturer executive turned whistle blower when his own child suffered from antibiotics made by his own company. This involved antibiotics exported to England and the EU mostly.

The Fda needs to do more inspections but as usual there ain't enough money. Tell that to the free mkt ideologists in congress. Actually I don't for a second believe most of these congress critters have any firm belief one way or another. They just vote whichever way the lobby money tells them to .

Dew, isn't this kind of use patents similar to the case between fgen and akba ? and akba won handily which means that your optimism is well founded.

Well Abbvie could always buy out enta to get into nash ? :)

One can never know what the chinese gvt will do or won't do. But one can try to put oneself into their position and guess what course(s) of action they may or may not take. But there are certain facts on the grounds that are more or less indisputable.

The market for roxa is big, very big and under estimated by western analysts. China has a big problem with faked drugs or for that matter anything lol. Assuming roxa will approved, it will be a big public safety issue that the authorities will avoid at all costs.

Roxa is the first foreign drug to go through the CFDA as Peter has pointed out and thus the authorities will be on their best behavior. I would buy that since the health issues and the scope of the problem it addresses are big even by Chinese standards.

If the authorities allow roxa IP to be misappropriated, they know that it will make western Pharmas to think twice before trying to have their products registered in china. Therefore I would expect the CFDA to also expedite the process for roxa competitors from gsk and akba thus limiting its pricing power. That is the most reasonable course of action for them to follow to address their looming health issue without ceding too much power to any western entity.

Same thing applies here with mnta copax . If too many competitors are approved, even if they are not substitutable like mnta’s product, the pie slices will become mighty small for all players.

By and large,most westerners don't understand the MO of Chinese people either, especially when one combines the trauma of Mao and the chinese way of thinking which suffered a lot of hardship, both physical and mental, with the advent of communism mixed with the shame of the early 20th being quartered and humiliated by the western colonial powers and the cruelty of its eastern neighbor japan.

shore.

https://www.canadianinsider.com/company?menu_tickersearch=tr

Agreed.So I take both CEO and EVP mkt buys divided by its mkt cap and compared that to Tril CEO and CMO buys a few days ago divided by its mkt cap and tril ratio is much higher :)
I do have a large stake for a genuine certified lotto ticket and any measure anchored by a smidgen of logic helps these days !

lol an imminent deal would be a cheap deal imo. unless they have some non public data to show the putative partner.

I am just wondering that between now and then, would there be enough time to get some solid data, be it good or bad.

indeed if bad, no company is in hurry to broadcast it. otoh they would if it is good.

tril ceo bought 3K sh yesterday.an intended morale booster for the flagging retailer crowd i'm sure lol

will tril have any update for asco 2017 ? i would sure hope so.

right now it is more of both a safety and efficacy signal although tril safety issues at ash2016 is a proxy for efficacy.
too early in the game for mr mkt. any real solid sign of both will really boost the stock.
of course the real value of cd47 is in combo. but first thing first. although like peter said, all players must have some ideas how their construct(s) work in combo in vitro.
one can always strike a deal anytime, but at what stage and what price ?
i prefer to think that tril is waiting for more solid data before striking a deal. a sign of confidence ? lol

you have to read between the lines because the company won't spell it out for you. basically there is low prob that the ongoing p3s will get finished. to be more exact, the intended number of patients enrolled will not be reached unless there is more $ coming from somewhere.

all it means to me is that the lotto ticket is getting cheaper. i have already a full stake otherwise i would buy more.

mr mkt is not prescient. with basically little or no friction cost, speculation now resembles the olympic game of curling lol.

my bad but i understand fgen has a much larger patient pop than that, may be because it covers us, europe, jap and china.

and so maybe akba has plans to enroll that many number of patients but do they have $ to actually execute that ,short of dilution or a partnership deal ?

i understand that one can plan to enroll a large number of patients and start soon enough but to actually reach the targeted number very much depends on the financial situation right ?

No. you said it yourself, akba does not have $ to fund P3s in the scale that fda requires for widespread indications like DD and NDD.

think diabetes. have you seen any diabetic drug approved with n= 500 ?

I always thought 105b sales ,once set up, are regular like clock work.

fgen's neff, for instance, sells twice a month, every month.

hans' sales otoh look irregular to me.

Damage control lol. I believe it was bradloncar on twitter who compared juno to a competitor in a nascar race apparently keeping pace with the leaders but actually is one lap behind.
very apt comparison imo

i always knew from the start which is about 12 mos ago that tril value is in combo not mono.

to get there, there are at least 3 steps. safety first, efficacy in mono (or equivalently sign of activity ) and then finally a sucessful P2 combo trial.

my cost avg is low (enough lol) at 7-8 so i can wait awhile.

looks that way to me.

if your currency appreciates that would negatively impact your exports and China is a big exporter.

Sure it is trying hard to move out of the assembly mkt it is currently big on by imposing conditions on foreign companies trying to sell in China.
An obvious example would be Boeing. You wanna sell us Dreamliners, then show us how to make some of the parts. I can't remember which is which, may be some sections of the wing.

I read in the economist that China has a nascent airline manufacturing industry , obviously nurtured by the state . However it is at least a few yrs from commercial readiness and when it does I will make a point not to travel in China.

Ain't no doubt in my mind, the state will force the domestic airline companies into buying these chinese made medium range planes.
When that happens I am planning to be nowhere close to one of them. Second level thinking would say that logically China would not rush the development of these high end products as a mishap and an airliner crash is a very notorious mishap that will ding China reputation for years to come.

ps: dew, my moniker is my name (as on my passport) written the white man's way lol.

$ goes up, yuan goes down and PBC slaps on capital controls to stem outflows.

This article from the economist spells out the dilemma. I can't read it online but I do have the paper edition.
This may not be temporary and it is perhaps probably not related particularly to foreign pharmas in China imo.


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How far to fall?
The yuan’s weakness is a dilemma for China’s central bank

China is among many countries to see its currency quail before the strengthening dollar
Dec 1st 2016, 15:42 | From the print edition

YUAN forecasters have had it easy for the past decade. But for a few isolated days, China’s currency has been a one-way bet for years on end, whether appreciating against the dollar, pegged to it or, more recently, depreciating.

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21711073-china-among-many-countries-see-its-currency-quail-strengthening

I have to agree with you. As far as investing in HCV companies, perhaps they have seen the top which was driven by expectation ofexpanding revenues in rich countries which has proven to be wrong.
One simply can't charge high enough in poor countries.
From now on, it is a matter of who has the best 2nd gen overall. As for enta, a double from here depends on nash and not hcv.

Don't look so bad to me. I suspect however it would be modified somewhat on the way to become law.
Wouldn't import taxes start a trade way. if country A taxes imports from B,what is stopping B from doing the same ?
I suppose since most if not all countries are members of WTO, all these issues will be decided by it.