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Dew, i am currently taking Vemlidy and my HBV quant test says "below detectable or not detectable levels" (i can't remember for sure )
so is there another more sentive HBV quant test that biotech like ENTA have that can do what Quest Diagnostic cannot ?
Vir ,from John at Endpoints :
Vir’s Chief Medical Officer Phillip Pang said that extrapolations from preclinical data on the molecule made the company’s scientists think it would take a much higher dose of VIR-3434 to achieve the intended response—meaning the actual data is even more promising for the drug’s future.
“To have achieved it with a dose of 6 mg is unexpected,” Pang said in a statement. “Coupled with initial data that shows VIR-3434 was well tolerated at up to 3,000 mg in healthy volunteers, I am hopeful that we are seeing just the beginning of VIR-3434’s capabilities.”
Well I sold out all my meager 5Ksh of Grts ~24.
At this MC, valuation exceeds whatever success(es) the 2 P1 extension dose cohorts of Slate & Stone (one is personal neo-antigens cassette vs standard cassette) may bring
I don't play Covid vax game although it is very tempting.
I've felt the awesome power of the herd. It feels like a tsunami hahaha as long you don't drown.
Adaptive cell therapy is a long road, requiring tons of constant xlational r&d as patient data roll in and if grts is doing vax then it ain't doing much or less on its original plan
but pps trumps all, for a while in the short run anyway. we'll see
Grts just did a raise of 110M$ not long ago, less than 4weeks i think
so they have plenty of $ to carry out their plan for cold cancers ie micro=satellites-stable cancers (which i read in Weinberg btw)
but i am not complaining abt today lil
Too bad i only bought back 1/10 5Ksh at 5. i'm letting this ride this time to learn lesson and experience the power of the herd lol
i always seem to sell too soon
i leaned about gritstone platform from reading, actually schlogging through Robert Weinberg "Biology of Cancer".
It wasn't easy but now I have a much better understanding of cancer, rather helpful for a guy speculating mostly with cancer bios, specifically non small molecules bios lol
GRTS is 22% on 110M$ pipe. i had 60Ksh at 3 in my IRA+Roth so I sold out.
If it comes back down, i'll prolly get back in.
I like their platform..
but then the Vascepa Reduce-It Adcom, although rather late, was very limited in scope. The brief only asked the Adcom panelists only one question: from the results of R-IT does V reduced CV risks for the treated population ?
Of course the answer had to be yes and it was unanimous. Amarin has asked for a lower level of TG than R-IT and was not granted.
Nevertheless as I remember, the lower bound TG for V granted by FDA still lower than the trial.
Thus it looks to me like FDA already made up its mind what to do, only convened Adcom for V as self preservation measure just in case
this type of logic abt class wide effects of drugs btw vada & roxa reminds me of my lucky involvement with GLP1 agonists going back 20yrs+ with Amylin.
Amylin was 1st with Byetta and its efficacy to a layman like myself, then & now lol, looks overwhelming to the rest of the field.
Amylin drug dose is in the microgram, whereas every other ones in same class is in milligram. to an engineer like myself, this is a lay up lol.
Byetta has serious side effects like nausea which kept it from becoming dominant even though it was 1st one to be approved.
When BMY bought out Amylin in 2012, i made a bundle and retired. I was in before approval, piled in heavily after dilution post approval and like that boom one day it went up 15$/sh and i had tons of shares so i quit working at 59 lol
so in case of roxa, no sign of ADcom from fda means that it already made up its mind abt BB label without giving Fgen a fair chance to defend itself ?
even in the case of JAK inhibitors, there was an ADcom for Lilly baricitinib no ?
also the majority of Adcom members were against 4mg dose. my point is that the safety data for Lilly was not clean enough to avoid BB.
Actually the more i dig into JAKs, the more I agree with BB label for entire class.
but in the case of roxa, where is the smoke ? tia
I'm buying small stake in amrn. my logic is that now Thero will sell and i believe price is higher than 5$
Oopsie I didn’t buy enough fgen then.
looks like a Hail Mary pass for gilead, desperate to build some replacement pipeline for its HCV franchise.
there is nothing wrong with its hcv franchise, still a fountain of cash, but mr mkt only grants PE extension based on "perceived" future growth and hcv mkt is not growing.
curing cancer in mice is a long way from anything viable imo
AFAIK immunocore came out of same Oxford lab that spawned Adaptimmune. they had same scientific founder who used to have dual roles at both companies.
but now he is only at immunocore. i took that to mean he thought adaptimmune needed less attention, on firmer footing etc..
i can't wait for a functional cure for HBV. I used to think enta was the lead on this, given its competency in HCV. but it seems no longer
Thank you Doc for your kindness to take time to explain to common people like us.
Pretty darn good explanation btw. I get it or I think I get it, hence I get it :)
Johndoeuk I remember you also were interested in adaptimmune. I have read your opinions about adapt at Seeking Alpha and Biotech Valuation over the yrs.
Did you benefit anything from its recent appreciation? I can't remember who introduced adapt to me.
on 5/29 i made a very decent gain when it shot up. I had a very sizeable stake for a petty retailer by averaging down to 1. It was very stressful I must admit.I sold off 9/10 of my stake in the low 10s
I had even more in adapt than Dew ever had in Enanta :)
So if it was you who first brought adapt to msg boards, I'd like to thank you.
ALPN I find their idea of directed evolution interesting. Cancer has crazy mutations and mutation rates. To target current neoantigens is obviously not enough because all drugs, IO or chemo, have relapses, progression etc ...
Their directed evolution platform seems like a decent idea on how to anticipate any tumor next move.
from my Dendreon experience I am wary of Mitch Gold. Same kind of apprehension made me miss out on Juno as it was headed by Hans "mr cost density" Bishop. I am very allergic to C suite BS. Oh well, c'est la vie. win some, miss some.
ENOB will be the end of GILD HIV franchise, right lol
And AZN still wants to marry GILD even with its HIV franchise in mortal danger from ENOB, not to mention Enanta also
These 2X-3X overnight successes from dubious bios never cease to amaze me.
Power to the herd lol as long as the hot air is still hot I guess
$adap +128% also on huge volume
Sorry I can't tell you. could be a rebound situation, but it will be limited imo.
it's not my kind/type of bet. when i swing i swing big. big stake, big risk/reward ratio.
as for dividend plays, it's not my game. I am not good at accounting even though i have an MBA lol. Barely passed the classe(s).
my thoughts wrt to dividend plays is that we have been in a ZIRP world for quite a while. Hence many more people smarter than me have been scouring for high AND relatively safe yield plays. who am I to go against them, thus I stay away because I have no edge.
AMRN : Sheesh, I survived another disaster. Sold my last few Ks in the mid teens.
Like most I was hoping for BP BO. But then @20$ amrn MC is already 6-7B$, a BO to happen would have to happen at 10B$.
But then I thought that no BP CEO could face his board and justify plunking 10B$ for "fish oil".
yeah, i said that on Twitter a while back, but I don't know how to search for my own post lol
again, being non greedy, leaving $ on the table, saves my bacon again. i survived elan (with bapizumab) and dndn and even made good money only because I unloaded a good chunk on the way up.
PS: my process has always been to be early and bear the risk of trial results. I rarely if ever bought in late after results are out. I must be a lucky SOB because I have done rather well by it
Anyone peddling “biotech values” like gnbt is a paid shill. Nevertheless they must be catching flies bc otherwise without suckers scams would not exist. But they are not QED
as my wont when tril dropped to 3 i bought 10K lol AH activity is related to to some rumour regarding some type of activity btw ftsv and gild.
I'd like to know the breakdown of API for generics though. What % of generics come from India or China. I'll bet it is lot higher.
I'm on Vemlidy now and I notice that it's made in Canada. Vemlidy is expensive so it makes sense.
My lisinopril otoh along with my generic allergy eye drops are made in India by ranbaxy. After reading "Bottles of Lies" by Katherine Eban, I'm leery of APIs from India and China.But what choice do I have.
I am not too encouraged by the FDA response to the issue of safety in the past,now or in the future. What the hell can they do? Bureaucrats want to keep their jobs. They can't tell pharma cos where to make their products.
Being too harsh with the regular and repeat surprise inspections of unworthy plants in India or China only has the effect of causing drug shortage thus the FDA gets called on the carpet by Congress.
It's all driven by the profit motive. Not a bug but a built in feature of profit seeking system.
If there is a silver lining in this dismal situation it's the fact the Indian and Chinese makers don't ship bad lots to rich countries. It makes sense to them and it makes sense to me.
A rich man's life and a poor man's live are not equal. Never was and never will be.
I don't understand why TRIL open mkt price is higher than dilution price?
My own explanation would be that offering price is only available to tutes, that is why IBs get paid. To peddle to institutions, not selling on open mkt
otoh, mr retail,shut out as usual to refinancing, thinks that tril with more financial runway and great trial results to be announced in the future, is willing to pay a premium.
or the whole thing can be explained by momentum day traders.
this is not specific to tril. i have seen the same mkt reaction happened to many former garbage bin dwellers too.
He is wrong on financial runway. Cash run rate for adap is around 25M$/qtr so with 39M$ as last Sep, it should be bankrupt by now
What i would add to this discussion is that from listening to Vinay in this podcast about the details and assumptions underlying KM curves is that sometimes a clinical perspective combined with experience in treating patients adds to a more nuanced view of the results than an academic without clinical knowledge or layperson would be able to discern.
Amrn : so I get your opinion that DrReddy is putting down a modern version of Pascal’s bet. The odds that god exists is infinitesimal low but so is the payoff such that the expected value makes it worth a try.
LT amrn will do just fine if bought around 20. but it requires patience.
I am not too worried abt the trial vs Reddy. My logic is that if Teva settled and Teva is no pushover; so what can DrReddy's lawyers do that Teva's lawyers couldn't ?
from these twitter polls i came across, majority of later comers want BO. no surprise there
amrn i put the odds of an EU partnership at almost 100% although i have no idea when. and if that happens before MA then my logic tells me that the odds for a MA with BP will decrease to 1/4 or less.
just my wag
Amrn thanks for the congrats however i didn't make any $ on amrn.
just merely made back what i lost in 2013. probably 80% of what i lost.
what made me whole was my big bet on enta. at one time or another i had around
80K of enta at an avg of 25 or so. and when it hit the 50s i sold most of it.
that is how i recovered my loss from amrn.
i am looking and thinking to sell off my amrn. even in the low 20s i've made enough.
leaving money on the table when it comes to "biotech values" has saved my bacon more than once. elan with bapizumab disaster and dndn which i loaded in the 2s and unloaded 100sh at a time until 55 when i ran dry.
i differ from most players in that imo the odds for an amrn BO is only 50%, a toss up.
AMRN well the long are not strong and the loaded are not locked lol.
Volume is almost 60M !!! Nothing but day traders these days
That explains one of the problems of chinese bios:massive and unchecked dilution
AMRN i am shooting for 28$/sh, that would net me 25$/sh I have 25K. next week i will start selling some amrn to pile into rvnc lol.
after all nobody wanted amrn last yr before Reduce-IT top line and when it came out I remember some people vehemently discounted the results: MO killing placebo arm etc...
it's all about buying when something can't be given away free and selling when it transmogrifies into hot cakes lol
I agree
BLRX I stay away from Israeli based biotechs. imo they have the same type and level of corporate transparency & governance with small chinese biotechs. same kind of reputation.
No better no worse. just something for ignorant but non greedy retail to stay away from.
RVNC just buying op no? mr mkt has no patience, mostly ST day trading, momo herding etc...
re RVNC
---------
offering was (and maybe still is) in limbo
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does "in limbo" translates into not enough customers interest ? if so, what a dog of a company ? either mr mkt is really so dumb to be blind to the potential of rvnc or has become so ST oriented or probably both.
ayup and Fgen roxa is included. i predict roxa will become a B$ drug in the china mkt with a record shortest time.
in the same NRDL for 2019 i also saw a chinese PDL1 drug priced at deep discount to Keytruda ~90% ??? good bye Keytruda in china
from what i can gather, azn&fgen have done excellent groundwork prepping for roxa. it seems to me the entire chinese medical profession, whether practitioners or academicians,is raring to go with respect to roxa. that is why imo neff chose peony yu for CMO.
in the US, i have been following Andy Phung MD a nephrologist who mentioned that roxa when approved will be the rare new tool in his toolbox that has been pretty bare since he graduated med school.
As usual that "lacking alpha" article is worthless. I have been in amrn since that scheiss head Joe Zarewski boasted he had more deals lining up than employees which numbered around 15-20 at the time.
i lost so much $ in 2013 to this day i don't want to know exactly. but with 25Ksh i bought just below 3 1-2 weeks before top line R-It results last yr, if amrn ever gets over 25, i'd probably break even or recoup ~ 80-90%. at 30 i'll be whole with a little profit perhaps.
the problems i see with amrn is the massive dilution. at 21 the MC is already 7B$. the second issue is the limited IP protection left until 2029 (i believe Teva agreed to that date). the 3rd is the condition that 70% of stakeholders have to agree to a BO price. with most other companies the acquirer only has to deal with mgt and BOD. I went through that with Amylin being bought by azn and bmy. late comers may not agree to 30 since their cost are high.
i am waiting to unload a portion of my stake ~25 which a favorable wide FDA label might trigger in Dec.
Dicerna I just checked on mgt team. Is Bob Brown,CSO for Dicerna, of Genta fame which went bust ? if so well this is enough to stop me.
in my view of the world, people don't change, and in the case they do, it's very very very rare