One can never know what the chinese gvt will do or won't do. But one can try to put oneself into their position and guess what course(s) of action they may or may not take. But there are certain facts on the grounds that are more or less indisputable.
The market for roxa is big, very big and under estimated by western analysts. China has a big problem with faked drugs or for that matter anything lol. Assuming roxa will approved, it will be a big public safety issue that the authorities will avoid at all costs.
Roxa is the first foreign drug to go through the CFDA as Peter has pointed out and thus the authorities will be on their best behavior. I would buy that since the health issues and the scope of the problem it addresses are big even by Chinese standards.
If the authorities allow roxa IP to be misappropriated, they know that it will make western Pharmas to think twice before trying to have their products registered in china. Therefore I would expect the CFDA to also expedite the process for roxa competitors from gsk and akba thus limiting its pricing power. That is the most reasonable course of action for them to follow to address their looming health issue without ceding too much power to any western entity.
Same thing applies here with mnta copax . If too many competitors are approved, even if they are not substitutable like mnta’s product, the pie slices will become mighty small for all players.
AI
