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Again, I read the filings. We are not talking about the past...that too is very doubtful before events (I have to dig it up...immediately after the event is the possibility...logically).....you stated your opinion about now as fact. I wish you luck with finding filings for now. You are an insider...great! Then you should know better than that.
-vg_future
Again, unless you are an insider or have proof....it is just an opinion stated as fact. Nothing more or nothing less. Your opinion is defying common sense and logic. I strongly recommend you to wait for a quarter and check it out....unless AVXL gets bought out before then...this is an OPINION stated as OPINION. I know the difference.
-vg_future
ExtremelyBullishZig, unless you are a company spokesperson or insider, you are not an authority on this. So, show the proof or wait to be proven one way or the other. Dilution can only happen if the conditions are preset..not randomly...particularly before a major readout/conference. If company dilutes now knowing that they are releasing a major NEWS, then the company invites scrutiny ... that is the last thing that they would do.
-vg_future
boi568, just a distraction...ignore it. Company wouldn't (and I am certain that it "cannot") dilute with a key data readout/presentation in few days. The selling could be simply market driven, short selling, few weak hands and maybe just few short term trading-stock strategies. Not dilution.
-vg_future
anders2211, I think the possible scenario could be that the other drug will
- either set a higher price tag that the market will assign to Anavex as well when it gets approved
- or due to its lack of effectiveness or risk factor, Anavex's drug will be seen as safe and more effective and hence higher price tag
Ofcourse if Ananvex's drug gets approved first, then it is a field day for us all anyway.
JMHO,
vg_future
Yes. We should have seen SRRK type of reaction already in AVXL...I am rooting for such and far more before and during CTAD. Let's see.
-vg_future
Read the message chain that you originally responded to. It is all about the possibility of bad data or not so good data. That should explain the premises.
Anyway, you have your theory and realism and I have mine.
vg_future
Follow the chain and see the bias. Possibility of bad data....bad data is as important as good for scientific community......are you kidding me.....Misslling wants to show the scientific community “what not to do” in a LB session that is requested after the deadline and after claiming significant improvements in a PR and....wait wait....By presenting PDD study data in a Alzheimers conference. That is a stretch for realism.
vg_future
Agreed. I hope we get the true value for the great potential that Anavex packs.
-vg_future
Well said raja48185. There is a huge difference between that and now (even though those results at that time were great as well). This is LB session that got approved after the deadline (so, must be carrying lot of stuff to qualify) and it is following the major PDD announcement from Anavex recently....of course, Anavex has packed lot of punch in last 5 years.
-vg_future
Again, as I said...agree to disagree. Just wait and see how it is plays out.
-vg_future
Let’s agree to disagree. The current situation is different. Activities are announced and lined up.
-vg_future
raja48185, Anavex wouldn't do it (and maybe, most likely, cannot do it before the data is released/published in CTAD) even if it doesn't hurt selling couple of million shares. Irrespective of the insider info status until CTAD, Anavex would wait until there is some respectable appreciation in the share price....which is long overdue...particularly given all the positive developments since the SAS NEWS from TGA.
JMHO,
vg_future
Except for dilution....everything else makes sense. Why would Anavex dilute now while higher prices are in store. Some serious manipulation is underway to facilitate all the other orchestration. Hoping for big NEWS that doesn’t give room for such manipulations while catching the current totally off guard.
-vg_future
falconer66a, got it. Once we get enough traction and visibility, Anavex doesn't have to put out a PR...results and other avenues could do the needed coverage.
-vg_future
falconer66a, good logic. Stretching the logic a bit more....I expect some PD or PDD related info from Anavex before or immediately after the conference to put things in proper perspective (kind of official vouching of Anavex's PDD results). Any thoughts along those line? TIA
-vg_future
JWC3, the PR is actually in line with some posts here that said “Missling could just announce the conclusions of the top line data while we wait for some details”....or something along the lines. He just did that and more with the additional stress on the quality of the great findings/confirmations. Since the findings are materially important.....he put the info out as soon as he got them. The path is clear for him to kickoff and continue discussions with any needed partners.
Now is the time for the message board “Armchair CEOs” and “Backseat drivers” to listen to Missling and pay attention while he delivers in the best interest of the company and the science.
-vg_future
Wish there were more analysts in this morning's call asking more relevant and revealing/probing questions giving Anavex (and the P2 NEWS) much needed coverage and exposure. Hope the NEWS gets more airtime and creates enough interest in the science, approach, and Anavex.
-vg_future
I strongly believe that market conditions and heavy manipulation worked hand in hand to keep the price down today. We can sit here trying to decipher what is mentioned and not mentioned in the PR this morning to justify the price reaction...but, this is all simple manipulation that weighed heavy on few investors. This morning's NEWS is excellent and we WILL see the price go up significantly from this point as the NEWS is digested. I really wish for another follow up PR
or NEWS/update tied with a partner/analyst tomorrow to screw the manipulators. That will cement the story solidly.
-vg_future
Elixir! A fit all.....EOM!
So, it doesn't mean opioid. Missling is definitely knowledgeable to be able to differentiate and decide.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/-ine
Unnecessary discussion based in incomplete research.
-vg_future
basparks79, okay. Thanks. EOM
basparks79, is this from someone's call to IR last week or a new call this week? TIA
-vg_future
Bio, thanks for the response and thoughts. Understandable.
100% agree on the valuation and SP price. Way overdue for a jump. I have seen companies explode with phase 2 results.
Goodluck to you as well!
vg_future
basparks79, great question. Missling does have an idea even though the minutest details of the data analysis are not available to him yet.
-vg_future
Bio, excellent write up. Based on your analysis, what do yo think is the likelihood of a PA post PDD readout? I am assuming that P3 and/or P4 can be done after PA is given as well as per the PA rules that I read here
TIA,
vg_future
If I am an investor in a company, I will try to be as objective as possible without getting carried away in unrealistic expectations and dreams, but if a dream like event comes through and true ......I will be absolutely thrilled and excited. Also, if someone talks about a dream like event, I will welcome that with excitement. I will definitely not fight the possibility and a discussion thereof tooth and nail. In Anavex's case, it is more like a realistic dream with many logical pointers leading to the same possibility of a reality (which is like a dream sequence). That would be ecstatic for me....and for any investor, in general, I believe.
Stop fighting your investment.
We are so close to the finish line...key events/moments unfolding within days.
JMHO,
vg_future
Lima4918, I don’t think Missling thought it was bad NEWS. He was preparing for partnerships or other arrangements following the gut microbial (forgive any spelling mistakes) related findings. He did release it before the weekend so that people get time to absorb it rather than knee jerk reaction. Unfortunately, there wasn’t much reaction from the good NEWS (for that matter, we haven’t seen any positive reaction from even the many great NEWS PRs following that). This will change soon. If you really think about it, Missling hasn’t used any of that offering, so that should tell you what he originally intended and expected.
JMHO,
vg_future
brichnyc, well said. The results would be significant and will set a big trend for AVXL. Folks trying to downplay the results are opinionating from their perspective. Nothing more nothing less.
Lima4918, since Anavex cannot make selective disclosures (NEWS to specific groups), any material information cannot be expected if something is sent (or accessible) to an investment group. This doesn’t preclude Anavex releasing any NEWS before the conference.
JMHO,
vg_future
Wow Bio! Great analysis and write up. It is really exciting to see when things logically and magically fall in place to give the complete picture. Thanks for making it easy to understand.
-vg_future
Good point. I am tired of saying the same thing over numerous posts, why shouldn't Anavex react positively (or explosively) when others explode with some minimal P2 (or P1 in some cases) and wait for revenues. I fully expect it to react positively and explosively with the positive data...any suggestion otherwise is just that...a wish or opinion.
-vg_future
Bio, well expressed. I would make an adjustment in the timeframe of PDD readout (you mentioned it as well as an option if proper strings are pulled...case for which can be made). I think, Anavex has all the attention at this point (not that additional investor attention wouldn't be welcome) for the results to be announced. Making the headlines before or during the PD conference would be apt.....lot of following and attention if it comes during a well followed conference......any investor conference is bound to get the attention once the headlines are made during a big PD conference. In fact, Anavex will get overwhelming coverage and following even without any conferences once the big NEWS comes out.
JMHO,
vg_future
Talon38, well said. EOM.
-vg_future
Company update could include - key milestones (data readout, next steps), next steps/future, partnership updates, financial projections, etc....this tells me that the data or related info will come out before the conference.
Anyone spinning it otherwise is taking their chances with their opinions and analysis...NOT FACTS.
-vg_future
Expecting great next couple of weeks for Anavex, patients and the followers here. For all the reasons hashed out here number of times, I couldn’t think of a more perfect stage to reveal the data, path forward (PA, partners or otherwise) than the days leading to the upcoming PD conference. This is of course JMHO....but, no less than that of doctors’ or Investors’. Everyone is entitled to opinions, until Anavex reveals the facts.
vg_future
JWC3, I think you are being very conservative on the initial reaction. When stocks jump by over 30 to 40 on just phase 2 readouts in this arena, IMO the PA (which will be based on great readout) should result in atleast over a 30 bucks jump initially. My numbers could be conservative as well. Lot of potential and possibilities.
-vg_future
Can you state the reasons why TGD has to wait? Probably he waited for ops expiration in the month of Aug...how do we know. So, this ops expiraation theory is pure guess/opinion unless backed up by some solid reasoning. If Missling's is sorting out things (deals/approvals/results analysis), then he will just wait for them to be over ..... not for option expiration.
-vg_future
Excellent post Bio! Thanks for putting it together...well reasoned and very thorough.
Hope the woods get in our rear view mirror and further away starting next week.
-vg_future
More importantly, why is it bad that Anavex can/will make money/profits out of the SAS approval? It is good for the company, investors and most importantly..the patients (from treatment perspective and future cure/remedies perspective).
-vg_future