is making moves.
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I would expect it to. In fact, I think the last hour of trading is going to be a complete frenzy.
I hope this is the weekend and Monday we wake to a sweet sweetment.
Is it me or is volume looking relatively low given our expectations for the next week - and quite possibly this weekend?
Thanks Gmenfan, I missed you guys!
I have no idea how I'm going to be able to concentrate in class tonight after today's hearing. The anticipation is killing me!
I very much agree.
lol, couldn't agree more. There are going to be a few multi-millionaires in their late twenties vacationing in sin city pretty soon. And I am still in shock at the thought of it.
Sorry for my absence guys, I've been crazy busy with work and school but I've been following the case and checking up on the boards on a daily basis.
This is it! I called it months ago - JPM/FDIC would settle before it pays up the $4B. Now it looks like settlement will be on the menu at some point within the next week.
My heart and profound thanks go out to all of the longs who contributed their time, efforts and knowledge with the board. You know who you are - I need not mention names. We will celebrate in due time.
RR
Yeah, that's a little too close to be coincidental. Check out one of the theories floating around Yahoo! when you get a moment. It's pretty interesting and might have some validity. I posted the link below:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_W/threadview?m=tm&bn=86316&tid=351289&mid=351289&tof=7&frt=2
Dimon unloaded $120.5M in JPM shares on 02/03. Something is definitely brewing.
See here: http://biz.yahoo.com/t/48/3927.html
Well, we know the parties were on the verge of settlement at the exclusion of equity in December - and we know the parties were on the verge of settlement in March/April of last year. Now, the EC is in place to ensure that equity has a seat at the table and Judge Walrath has openly stated that she's ready to rule on summary judgment. Moreover, we haven't seen any frivolous motions filed by JPM in months - on the contrary, we've seen the judge openly reprimand them for filing so many frivolous motions and delaying these proceedings as much as they have.
IMO, this is the closest we've ever been.
Agreed. I believe we will see a stock swap here too.
The speculation is in the fact that we're not insiders and don't know for sure when the parties are going to settle. I agree with your sentiment and strongly believe we will see a settlement before summary judgment is issued - and her recent adjournment to Monday, March 8th coincidentally gives the parties one more weekend to reach some form of mutual assent. I think it's right around the corner but I'm open to a discussion as to why these sentiments may or may not be accurate.
Lets start a speculative discussion on the likelihood of settlement before Judge Walrath rules on summary judgment. I wish Bopfan would entertain the topic but she/he doesn't post on I-Hub. Mordicai, do you have any thoughts?
That's correct.
That's true. Good call.
Because this case means more than just dollars and cents. Her decisions can potentially affect the U.S. economy if any sign of instability is shown - i.e., the FDIC wrongfully seizing well-capitalized banks and wrongfully conveying them at fire-sale prices along with assets that belong to their holding company.
Who would invest in banks? What impact would this have on foreign investment into the U.S.? Lots of discussion points and I'm sure the Judge would rather grant a month-long extension to give the parties ample time to settle this themselves as oppose to considering those issues and attempting to answer them herself.
Exactly.
Good point, Uzual. I forgot to mention this in my post.
The FDIC is going to be responsible for the lion's share of the settlement - and JPM knows this. If summary judgment is decided, it is going to create a presumption that the FDIC wrongfully conveyed other WMI assets to JPM in its seizure and conveyance of WMB. This is a major point that will subject the FDIC to major liability. Its only natural for the FDIC to try and buy some more time while it figures out a way to minimize its exposure to the whole ordeal. The fact is, however, that the parties have already exhausted every tactic under the sun - both frivolous and legitimate - in pushing it out this far. JPM's stance in the last hearing clearly indicates that the parties are ready to deal. Moreover, the billing records and documents supporting/opposing the formation of the equity committee revealed that the parties were extremely close to reaching a settlement in December - however, the plans were foiled (to our benefit) with the formation of the equity committee and Judge Walrath's recent decision denying WMI's motion to dissolve it.
Based on your banner I'd say you're a real patriot and as such I suspect you share the same sentiment as most of us do towards JPM, FDIC and the other parties responsible for this financial debacle.
There is quite a bit of solid DD on this board. Its not so easy for us to just pick up and reference a document when most of us have been on the boards discussing hearings and analyzing documents for 6-12+ months. We understand that you're new to the stock and seeking some quick DD to support your position but that's like walking into a courtroom in the middle of a trial and expecting the parties to just hand over their discovery.
I would suggest looking at some of the posting history of some of the more well known, reputable members here - most of which only post when there's something worth posting about - then, set up a PACER account (https://ecf.deb.uscourts.gov/cgi-bin/login.pl)to to take a look at the docket (Index No. 08-12229) if you're willing to pay for it. In the alternative, you can try to become a member of the Ghost board (http://ghostofwamu.com/forum/) for access to their free document database. Sometimes people link relevant documents to their posts here too.
We now have an equity committee and summary judgment on a $4.4B issue has already been briefed and argued. The judge was ready to rule last week - with WMI and JPM demonstrating no real objection against her issuing the ruling - but the FDIC requested another month's time. Virtually all litigational delay tactics have been exhausted by JPM and the FDIC - and the courts have all left jurisdiction with the delaware court and our beloved Judge Walrath on key issues. Without going into why or how, I'm just going to say that alot of things are pointing towards March as a potential settlement period. If you're looking into getting into this stock, then I would suggest accumulating your position between now and then.
Good luck.
I'm not sure if I understand the question but it seems to me as though the FDIC is concerned with Congress making an example out of the WaMu debacle as the investigation continues and the media becomes more aware of what really happened. I'm not sure exactly how much of an impact these events are having on the FDIC's position within the core proceedings, but I have to believe the events are motivating them to settle. The last thing the FDIC wants is a judicial decision holding that the FDIC wrongfully transferred assets to JPM in its seizure and sale of WMB.
Here we go again, lol.
Nice try with the attempted legal interpretation but that doesn't apply. We're talking about a parent company NOT being liable for its subsidiary (the separate company) under the doctrine of piercing the corporate veil. The NOL issue has nothing to do with this and your theory is inapplicable here.
See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piercing_the_corporate_veil
IMO, this article is trying to position the correspondence between JPM and Santander in a wholly different light - and ignores the true significance of this email. They are saying the email raises potential antitrust issues whereas I say the email depicts JPM's attempts to thwart off potential suitors for WMI while WMI was looking for a buyer.
Exactly.
I've said that I think the FDIC is really holding up the settlement at this point. The FDIC is trying to push a bunch of things out into March - including the oral argument on its motion to modify the stay. If SJ is ruled on now, it would indicate that the FDIC wrongfully conveyed assets that belonged to WMI - and such an indication would result in liability to the FDIC.
lol, very much appreciated my friend but only if you let me pick up the first.
Thanks Sunshine!
That's correct. You've done your homework too, I see.
Cheers and good luck!
lol, no objections here either.
They've exhausted every tactic in the book and this is the end of the line. I think this will be over by or before April.
I side with Bopfan's valuation - which depends on how the settlement is structured - of $24+/share.
Do I get brownie points for suggesting that doctrine as a potential method of imputing liability to WMI?
Don't forget I also said the bondholders wouldn't be able to meet the applicable legal standard because of the lack of self-dealing on WMI's part.
We all expected this end result and I agree - shares for $0.19 is just ridiculous given what we'll be at in a month or so.
Good luck to all.
The FDIC knows its argument is moot and they never expected to argue the motion in the first place.
The FDIC knows its argument is moot and they never expected to argue the motion in the first place.
I wish I could listen in but I'm in the office. Is this the hearing on the objection of claims under which the bondholders claims against WMI are to be expunged?
Exactly.
From a tax perspective - and I believe Mordicai can correct me if I'm wrong on this - I believe the holding period for our WAMUQ will be tacked onto our holding period of JPM if a stock swap takes place - thus, those of us who have held for 1+ years can sell and merely pay the long-term capital gains rate (15%) as oppose to the marginal rate.
This is another possible scenario. I just don't think a straight cash settlement will happen. Dimon won't let go of that much money amidst a recession.
In short, a "cash" settlement would result in a halt to trading and the trustee contacting brokerage firms requiring them to report the names and positions of all WAMU stockholders - after which your shares would be exchanged for some monetary value in your account.
I highly doubt this will be a "cash" settlement. We will likely see a stock swap of some sort - under which the above scenario would apply, except our shares would be exchanged for some percentage of JPM stock instead of monetary value in your account.
Why am I not surprised?
Sleep is good, my friend, lol. This is like waiting for water to boil.
Good morning, knick. I honestly don't know. This is a straightforward issue and clearly established third circuit law is on her side, so I really can't say. I think her decision is ready to go but she's holding back on issuing it for some of the previously discussed reasons concerning potential settlement discussions going on between the parties.