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txs for your kind words!! .. yes.. I am back here and holding long... cheers!
hi mehedi!
I guess this rally started on the Jan 2nd based on the end of tax year but now it is related to the news about new NOL regulation (5 instead of 2 years) ... this can be very significant for companies in BK....
WMI market value - even at 0.08 - is still very low $136M compared to the possible upside comming from 5 years of tax benefits that are worth Billions..
... you add the 4.4 B cash now + undetermined (botom almost 4B as per last A/L report) + possible $B results from sueing FDIC ... compared to 8B in debt (less than 1B in 2009) to be paid up to year ...2049...
.. with bumps on the road but I think this will keep climbing over the next days/weeks...
Hello everybody... I am still holding
... through this tough storm..
... besides the pps evolution ( quite discouraging and stressfull) nothing significant has changed in the last weeks ...
... these processes take time to mature...
... I keep holding my position and I will stay in WAMUQ over 2009 which will be a great year for us ...
Once again thanks to all for your continuous insights .. even to the pesimistics ... everything contributes.
Cheers and very happy new year.
The "debtot" is the shareholder representation .. so shareholders are not set appart of the agreement ....
... unless the creditors could force a liquidation or a restructring model that wipe out previous shareholders replacing them by the creditors...
... which is not the case because WMI has cash to pay the debt due for years... so creditors cannot force it unless WMi fails to pay any debt tranch at any due date.
On one side 2B is a lot!! ..
On the other side and almost independently of this being worth X or Y these days ... it seems to be a one more grey area of the clumsy and unclear Purchase Agreement bewteen JPM and FDIC .. which opens legal doors to challenge it's validity...
... selling something that you neither own nor are entitled to sell is a fraud .... again and it seems that is what FDIC did... if the "whole bank" Purchase agreement included something that FDIC was not authorized to sell ... the actual owner must be compensated by the seller...
.. the question is if it is still owned by WMI or not.
WMI paid around 6B for Providian 3 years ago.
Correct phrase .. "until the judge approves it"...
... instead of "until the US Trustee approves it"... (in your last paragraph)
.. WMI want's to speed up and the "US Trustee" doesn't want it to speed up...
... but it's the judges who decides.. not one of the parties.
Cheers..
yes, .. this is the way I see it too.
cheers!
I somewhere read that this was either "owned" or at least "managed" by WMBank... ( anyone else recalls this?)
... it's likely one of these grey areas of that absolutely messy and clumpsy "seizure and sell-off" so badly documented..
... but from the document I guess it's at least an important area of litigation...
cheers.
Page 22 of the package in the linked pdf.. Second document exhibit A (page 11 out of 12)...
Schedule A: WMI Affiliates
"in fact direct or indirect subsidiary of WMI and not direct or indirect subsidiary of WMB"
there it is ..
...
Providian Services Corporation
Providian Services LLC...
30th Dec. hearing..
unless something happens earlier !!
Not such a bad day and it was just for seconds that it didn't end at 0.27...
15:59:20 .... 150,700 shares at 0.027 ...
and then 6 second later the usual micro orders for 380 and 560 shares at 0.026 (more than 3% difference in the closing thanks to our MMs play )...
don't worry too much about your entry points.... if you wait it will climb..
.. cheers.!!
chivalri this can be big!!
good finding ...
... and it's in the document that was pre-agreed by JPM ..
however somewhere I read that Providian operations were "managed" by WMBank...
... likely this is going to be one of the many grey areas of what was "really seized and sold to JPM" by FDIC in the "Whole Bank" Purchase Agreement...
... the more we learn the less clear is what is owned by whom ....
let's see how it evolves..
cheers and again ... great finding!!
mehedi, .. it's not a lot of activity ... about $400k traded and 15M shares out of 1.7B shares ....
.... it's not that different from most days !!..
Cheers!!
Indian,
you may be right or just half right, as a matter of fact I don't think WMI will sue JPM, but I see very likely that they sue FDIC ... specially with the comming change in the US administration.
I am not sure about your reasons for being so positive about it. It's clear that your "private business course on 1957" was very good. Can you please share why are you so positive?
Cheers..
I am holding long too.
The A/L shows to me:
1.- No risk of liquidation. Cash and cash equivalent supports very long term debts as well as attorneys fees.
2.- Plenty of "undetermined" value in subsidiaries. (Visa an Renaissanse are examples).
3.- Plenty of "cash equivalent" indexed to current market value. Current cash avalilable doesn't force any hurry to sell-off at current market value.
4.- NOL just adds up.
Besides it:
I am almost sure we will see soon WMI sueing FDIC (contract breach) asking for a billionare compensation. Only this action will feed wirelines and put this situation on the spotlight with a likely very positive impact in pps.
Of course we have the buyout option but I see it more likely once WMI has sued FDIC.
Conclusion: WMI is worth by far more that current 50M$ market cap.
We may suffer for a while with the pps manipulation , but .... who is not suffering these days? ( ask around Palm Beach ).
let's take it easy.
Cheers and Merry Christmas ... an outstaindingly HAPPY NEW YEAR!!
Why this pesimistic mood all around?
Nothing has changed in the last days, except:
1) that we do know that the 4.4B are generating interests ( which is good)
2) that WMI has decided to delay the order to move these 4.4B out of JPM accounts ( which seems to be neutral, but it's significant that the decision to delay it was WMI's decision)
3) That JPM and FDIC have to share with WMI the stolen data ( which is good).
4) We learned that Barclays need to buy a significant amount of shares.
5) We know that FDIC have to pay WMI aprox. 50M$ as result of a previous liquidation
6) We have seen that part of the attorney's focus is to analyze a possible litigation against WMI for contract's breach. There are succesfull precedents with billions in compensation.
- The A/L may come today or delay until end December. We knew it. The delays are painful but at least I counted with it.
Under the past and current low $volume trading patterns the daily pps evolution with regards to this stock potential is meaningless.
Until news come nobody should expect a major pps increase.
I am where I was:
- Liquidation is not an scenario for me since weeks ago.
- Creditors cannot force any damage to common or pref shareholders since WMI can pay for several years the amounts due to creditors.
- Key shareholders are there ( well, now we know Barclays need to buy).
- Judge position seems to be aligned with WMIs proposals
- This company's current market cap is around 50M$, ... I am sure it's worth significantly more.
Guys....It's about time, ...
one possible scenario is that the A/L is not that positive as we expect it to be... I recognize this as a possibility ... this is the risk and the pps can go even lower as reaction ... but how much lower and for how long?... will this company be worth much less than current market cap?
... I am not talking about flippers and MMs game .. this is heaven for them. .. or the ones jumping from this opportunty now to another one ... I do respect them and it seems to be playing well for them. I tried this jumping approach in the past with very diverse results.. here I decided to stay long.
I am talking as someone who can wait - if needed, because it can also fly in the next minutes, ..and will wait...
Let's try to touch ground with our mood and be realistic about timming .. this can take time and possibly some more frustration to cope with .. but nothing has changed negatively.
Cheers to all of you!!
and by the way MANY THANKS FOR THE CONTINUOUS FLOW OF INFORMATION AND INSIGHT that you all share here. I really appreciate it.
We are ok, .. where we expected to be today.. aren't we?
- Leaving apart that the 4.4 motion was delayed "until WMI decides" but .. once they are producing interests this is not so relevant.. the most important topic for 16th was the court orders to share computer data as we expected. And we got them.
.. in the past days no significant news ... the previous 8k gave us the "bottom=accounting books value of assets" (the 7.xB) .. now we are waiting for details about the assets which will give more realistic market values...
... hopefully no more significant delays about this asset valuation..
in the mean time trading as usual with low $ volumes, MMs playing within the spread and the usuall micro-orders at the bid...
we are just ok .. let's just see the info flow... and hit the newswires..
besides it, any day/week we will wake up with the news that WMI sued FDIC for contract breaking in the seizure ( as per the attorneys detailed work reports this is seems to course they are planning ) asking for billionare compensation.. this is a long term shot to get it won ..but once it's triggered and just because of it's started ... it will add value to WMI..
we will have fun..!! good luck guys..!!
Glup.. I was convinced today is 16Th..!! txs
Court doc 425 "Notice of agenda of maters scheduled for hearing on Dec 16th" .. filed on Dec 12th.
There are more topics than the 3 ones I listed. The ones about exchanging information are these ones:
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229081211000000000009.pdf
III Contested items going forward:
- points 8 & 9. (pag 5)
it may also be important the point 7 ( it's also contested )
Today's hearing most important topic:
The 4.4B are delayed until WMI decides. The A/L are for 19th. But as far as I recall there are 3 topics to be convered today:
- Dell's motion ... not too relevant
- Tranfer agent topic.. not too relevant
- Approval and formal "enforcement" by the judge of the agrements about "electronic data exchange" between JPM and WMI and between FDIC and WMI. THIS ONE IS IMPORTANT.
If by any chance there is not agreement about it, then we may have more delays in the whole process.
If it gets approved, then the process will speed up. This is important for short medium term pps.
... and WMI will be able to gather the details about the money "rush" of deposits that, in principle, precipitated the seizure by FDIC.
This may be important in building the case of WMI litigation against FDIC for "contract breach" and/or further investigation by authorities about any possible fraudlent manipulation previous to the seizure.
I think this may be important for medium/long term pps.
Any news from court about this topic??
is it worth just $50M as per current pps?
... unlikely ...
Bonderman resignation and delay
After reading last hours posts two thigs are more clear for me than yesterday:
- Judge position/perception: WMI is viable/liquidation our of her current expectation. She is supporting WMIs moves and running expenses.
- TPG ( someone asked about it ) is still loaded, otherwise they would have to informed to court etc as per the Transfer restricitons/Nol preservation Order.
NOW SPECULATION:
- Bonderman:
It's unlikely that he resigned by chance the SAME DAY day WMI decides to delay the ruling on the 4.4B.
In my opinion it's lileky that Bonderman took a personal involvement in the decision to invest many $B in WMI. For TPG to recover reasonably part of their investment, the common pps should climb at leat to $5-7. For Bonderman's personal prestige and ego any deal much below this is ashaming.
On the other hand current WMI situation and market conditions make it very unlikely that someone pays more than $2-3pps. Even considering the NOL. Only a positive outcome of a very long term litigation against FDIC could make pps go much higher.
Maybe Bonderman can wait so long, but maybe others in the WMI board as well as most shareholders are not willing to wait so long.
I always thought that a buyout in the range of $2-3 pps ($4-6 B$) wouldn't be easy to accept by TPG/BOnderman. However it would be a very succesfull outcome for many other - even pre BK - investors.
It may be that there is a conflict in the board about what is acceptable or not. Some of them willing to avoid long term legal war in this turmoil, others willing to cash as much as possible in the short term and move on to new waters.
As speculation, my reading of this resignation is positive for those investors who would be happy with $2-3 pps. If the board is considering something like this .... he just would not like to be part of it, so he resigned. In the future world of free opinions he will be free to critizice the board and save face.
- 4.4B delay:
In principle I didn't like it at all. It's good that the interests demostrate this ownership. It's true that it does not matter too much in which bank account it is, provided it produces interests. It's somehow relaxing that the delay was proposed by WMI. But these 4.4B are the cornerstone granting that liquidation is out of scope. And it would have been much better having this ownership signed by the judge.
Some posters here and in Yahoo (*) understand that this helps to stay in good terms with JPM . And they relate it to buyout conversations. But negotiations can fail, delay, get contested by FDIC, rejected by JPM board, etc , etc ... and I WOULD RATHER HAVE THE 4.4B OWNERSHIP SIGNED BY THE JUDGE than having a "possible sign that there are negotiations"
------- In conclusion:
1.- I did't like the delay but I am holding 3M shares by today because the current price is ridiculous. If it get closed to 0.02 before 19th I will load more.
2.- I see more risk now that with the 4.4B signed by the court.
3.- If there is a buyout it will be in the 2-3$ pps range. I don't count with more and I will not wait to see if it goes above that. I would be delighted with that outcome.
4.- If 19th hearing gets delayed ... the pps may get tough for us and heaven for MMs during many trading days. Unless an insider starts generating sustained buying pressure this is going to be frustrating. And we will have to wait pretty blind.
5.- If 19th hearing shows positive A/L balance, then there may be buyers besides JPM and I see a buyout likely in days/weeks. Anyway if we have to wait, it's going to be easy whatever the pps. In the mean time WMI can move on building a B. Plan and restructuring with the mind set in getting out of BK in case buyouts don't materialize. I will be a happy waiting camper.
6.- If 19th hearing shows negative/neutral results I will stay drunked all over christmas period.
(*) Some posters in yahoo and iHub with positive interpretation of the 4.4b delay have all my respect based in their previous opinions. I hope they are right again. If the simultaneos resignation and 4.4B delay are related it's a good sign. But we don't know yet if they are related or not.
Viva .. I don't think charts are meaninfull here.
... this is manipulated with these micro-orders at the bid and besides it ... charts require volume to make statistics valid and then get meaning ... and here anyone investing or disinvesting 50k$ in a shot (1.8M shares) breaks any barrier..in a minute.
just an opinion...
Kind words ..txs!! and cheers!! eol
Ok.. you convinced me ... I am hoping for a miracle!! and I owe you a beer!!!.. and I need another one ( or dozen ) to stop getting so serious.
warm cheers!!
Miracles don't happen!!
at least I have not seen anyone or read about any credible one.
I know you used the word "miracle" as an expression of future hope I share your feeling .. but words are treacherous.
Justice is another thing ... in many countries - US among them for sure (*) - it works fine ... but it takes time ... sometimes .. too long time if you cannot hold or you have better investments opportunities.
This is bussines... and it's about probabilities we can assume based in the data and facts we have, ,,,
DumbIndian may be right saying we don't know about some key facts so we may be blind ... or he may be wrong and the data we have are reasonably fine and it's all about getting the BK court process progress and then WMI communicating "court and/or IRS supported facts".
In weeks only several tens M$ have been traded. WMI generates daily interests income that you can compare peer to peer with daily trading. I see the judge - who knows more about BK that we altogeher - authorithing serious (compared to trading $ volume) expenses and transfers to subsidiaries. TPG and others invested B$.
I understand this is heaven for flippers and MMs making money in the spread .. the lower the pps the higher the spread.
For those who can wait - and I can - this is about the best investment - not miracle - opportunity I have found in my life. I don't see so often multipliers in the range of x10 in weeks-months or x100 in months-years.
It's not written in the stone - again Dumb may be right. But it's worth the risk ... if you can wait.
... in the mean time .. I make my life on my job, I can wait and I loaded more today... and by the way .. I don't consider this a lottery... lottery is not an investment .. this is an investment .. risk/reward balance... by today in my opinion liquidation is not an option .. therefore it's not a lottery.
* About justice timming: BK key decisions cannot delay but days/weeks .. max months.. I can hold these periods to make serius money// litigation against FDIC about the seizure may take years .. I don't plan to wait so long for my investment to pay off but I am sure we will read in the future about this wrongdoing. But I don' count on it for business.
Frustrating day .. stormy weather .. but the world keeps rotating...
Cheers!!!
error in my previous post
3rd paragraph .. I wrote $1B, I meant $1
I guess the safe play is to wait until 19th for that.
In the orgininal filing the non cash assets were $27B (subsidiaries, public securities and real state). I always considered conservative to assume 70% erosion... which gives 8.1B. Plus the cash .. around 12.5B. Minus 12.5 - 8 = 4.5B -> pps -> aprox. $2.5
Even more conservative: 80% erosion -> aprox. $1B
This excludes NOL as well as long term possible litigation compensations.
Below you have the list of the original WMI subsidiaries. Of course you have to take away the WMBank and WMNfsm related ones.
I do not know about remaining real state properties. But likely WMI still owns properties bought many many years ago and the book value ( reflected in 8k) of these ones is likely to be well below current market value.
I hope this helps.
Cheers.
WASHINGTON MUTUAL, INC. DIRECT AND INDIRECT SUBSIDIARIES
110 East 42nd Operating Company, Inc.
620-622 Pellhamdale Avenue Owners Corporation
Accord Realty Management Corporation
ACD2
ACD3
ACD4
Ahmanson Developments, Inc.
Ahmanson GGC LLC
Ahmanson Insurance, Inc.
Ahmanson Land Company
Ahmanson Marketing, Inc.
Ahmanson Obligation Company
Ahmanson Residential 2
Ahmanson Residential Development
Bryant Financial Corporation
California Reconveyance Company
CCB Capital Trust IV
CCB Capital Trust IX
CCB Capital Trust V
CCB Capital Trust VI
CCB Capital Trust VII
CCB Capital Trust VIII
Clayton Blackbear, Inc.
Commercial Loan Partners L.P.
CRP Properties, Inc.
Dime Capital Partners, Inc.
Dime Commercial Corp.
Dime CRE, Inc.
Dime Mortgage of New Jersey, Inc.
ECP Properties, Inc.
The E-F Battery Accord Corporation
F.C. LTD.
FA California Aircraft Holding Corporation
FA Out-of-State Holdings, Inc.
Flower Street Corporation
Great Western FS Corporation
Great Western Service Corporation Two
H.F. Ahmanson & Company
H.S. Loan Corporation
Harmony Agency, Inc.
HCP Properties Holdings, Inc.
HCP Properties, Inc.
HFC Capital Trust I
HHP Investment, LLC
HMP Properties, Inc.
Home Crest Insurance Services, Inc.
HS Loan Partners LLC
Irvine Corporate Center, Inc.
Ladue Service Corporation
Long Beach Securities Corp.
Marion Insurance Company, Inc.
Marion Street, Inc.
Mid Country Inc.
Murphy Favre Housing Managers, Inc.
Murphy Favre Properties, Inc.
NAMCO Securities Corp.
Nickel Purchasing Company, Inc.
Norstar Mortgage Corp.
North Properties, Inc.
Pacific Centre Associates LLC
Pacoima Investment Fund LLC
PCA Asset Holdings LLC
Pike Street Holdings, Inc.
Plainview Inn, Inc.
Providian Bancorp Services
Providian Leasing Corporation
Providian Mauritius Investments LTD
Providian Services Corporation
Providian Services LLC
Providian Technology Services Private Limited
Reverse Exchange Corporation
Rivergrade Investment Corp.
Riverpoint Associates
Robena Feedstock LLC
Robena LLC
Savings of America, Inc.
Seafair Securities Holdings Corp.
Second and Union LLC
Seneca Funding (UK) Limited
Seneca Funding LLC
Seneca Funding Management LLC
Seneca Funding Trust
Seneca Holdings, Inc.
Seneca Newco LLC
Seneca Street, Inc.
Sivage Financial Services LLC
Snohomish Asset Holdings LLC
SoundBay Leasing LLC
Stockton Plaza, Incorporated
Strand Capital LLC
Sutter Bay Associates LLC
Sutter Bay Corporation
Thackeray Funding Corp.
Thackeray Funding Partners
Thackeray Holdings Corp.
University Street, Inc.
WaMu 1031 Exchange
WaMu Asset Acceptance Corp.
WaMu Capital Corp.
WaMu Insurance Services, Inc.
WaMu Investments, Inc.
Washington Mutual Asset Securities Corp.
Washington Mutual Bank
Washington Mutual Bank fsb
Washington Mutual Brokerage Holdings, Inc.
Washington Mutual Capital Trust 2001
Washington Mutual Community Development, Inc.
Washington Mutual Finance Group LLC
Washington Mutual Life Insurance Company of California, a Stock
Insurer
Washington Mutual Mortgage Securities Corp.
Washington Mutual Preferred Funding LLC
Washington Mutual Trade Service Limited
Washington Mutual-Seattle Art Museum Project Owners Association
Western Service Co.
WM Aircraft Holdings LLC
WM Asset Holdings Corp.
WM Citation Holdings, LLC
WM Enterprises & Holdings, Inc.
WM Funds Disbursements, Inc.
WM Marion Holdings LLC
WM Mortgage Reinsurance Company, Inc.
WM Specialty Mortgage LLC
WM Winslow Funding LLC
WMB St. Helens LLC
WMBFA Insurance Agency, Inc.
WMFS Insurance Services, Inc.
WMGW Delaware Holdings LLC
WMHFA Delaware Holdings LLC
WMI Investment Corp.
WMI Rainier LLC
WMICC Delaware Holdings LLC
WMRP Delaware Holdings LLC
Yellowstone Venture, Inc.
WAMUQ: WASHINGTON MUTUAL, INC. DIRECT AND INDIRECT SUBSIDIARIES ...
Chapter 11 Filing said they had $32Bil
in Assets and this looks good to me ...
WASHINGTON MUTUAL, INC. DIRECT AND INDIRECT SUBSIDIARIES
110 East 42nd Operating Company, Inc.
620-622 Pellhamdale Avenue Owners Corporation
Accord Realty Management Corporation
ACD2
ACD3
ACD4
Ahmanson Developments, Inc.
Ahmanson GGC LLC
Ahmanson Insurance, Inc.
Ahmanson Land Company
Ahmanson Marketing, Inc.
Ahmanson Obligation Company
Ahmanson Residential 2
Ahmanson Residential Development
Bryant Financial Corporation
California Reconveyance Company
CCB Capital Trust IV
CCB Capital Trust IX
CCB Capital Trust V
CCB Capital Trust VI
CCB Capital Trust VII
CCB Capital Trust VIII
Clayton Blackbear, Inc.
Commercial Loan Partners L.P.
CRP Properties, Inc.
Dime Capital Partners, Inc.
Dime Commercial Corp.
Dime CRE, Inc.
Dime Mortgage of New Jersey, Inc.
ECP Properties, Inc.
The E-F Battery Accord Corporation
F.C. LTD.
FA California Aircraft Holding Corporation
FA Out-of-State Holdings, Inc.
Flower Street Corporation
Great Western FS Corporation
Great Western Service Corporation Two
H.F. Ahmanson & Company
H.S. Loan Corporation
Harmony Agency, Inc.
HCP Properties Holdings, Inc.
HCP Properties, Inc.
HFC Capital Trust I
HHP Investment, LLC
HMP Properties, Inc.
Home Crest Insurance Services, Inc.
HS Loan Partners LLC
Irvine Corporate Center, Inc.
Ladue Service Corporation
Long Beach Securities Corp.
Marion Insurance Company, Inc.
Marion Street, Inc.
Mid Country Inc.
Murphy Favre Housing Managers, Inc.
Murphy Favre Properties, Inc.
NAMCO Securities Corp.
Nickel Purchasing Company, Inc.
Norstar Mortgage Corp.
North Properties, Inc.
Pacific Centre Associates LLC
Pacoima Investment Fund LLC
PCA Asset Holdings LLC
Pike Street Holdings, Inc.
Plainview Inn, Inc.
Providian Bancorp Services
Providian Leasing Corporation
Providian Mauritius Investments LTD
Providian Services Corporation
Providian Services LLC
Providian Technology Services Private Limited
Reverse Exchange Corporation
Rivergrade Investment Corp.
Riverpoint Associates
Robena Feedstock LLC
Robena LLC
Savings of America, Inc.
Seafair Securities Holdings Corp.
Second and Union LLC
Seneca Funding (UK) Limited
Seneca Funding LLC
Seneca Funding Management LLC
Seneca Funding Trust
Seneca Holdings, Inc.
Seneca Newco LLC
Seneca Street, Inc.
Sivage Financial Services LLC
Snohomish Asset Holdings LLC
SoundBay Leasing LLC
Stockton Plaza, Incorporated
Strand Capital LLC
Sutter Bay Associates LLC
Sutter Bay Corporation
Thackeray Funding Corp.
Thackeray Funding Partners
Thackeray Holdings Corp.
University Street, Inc.
WaMu 1031 Exchange
WaMu Asset Acceptance Corp.
WaMu Capital Corp.
WaMu Insurance Services, Inc.
WaMu Investments, Inc.
Washington Mutual Asset Securities Corp.
Washington Mutual Bank
Washington Mutual Bank fsb
Washington Mutual Brokerage Holdings, Inc.
Washington Mutual Capital Trust 2001
Washington Mutual Community Development, Inc.
Washington Mutual Finance Group LLC
Washington Mutual Life Insurance Company of California, a Stock
Insurer
Washington Mutual Mortgage Securities Corp.
Washington Mutual Preferred Funding LLC
Washington Mutual Trade Service Limited
Washington Mutual-Seattle Art Museum Project Owners Association
Western Service Co.
WM Aircraft Holdings LLC
WM Asset Holdings Corp.
WM Citation Holdings, LLC
WM Enterprises & Holdings, Inc.
WM Funds Disbursements, Inc.
WM Marion Holdings LLC
WM Mortgage Reinsurance Company, Inc.
WM Specialty Mortgage LLC
WM Winslow Funding LLC
WMB St. Helens LLC
WMBFA Insurance Agency, Inc.
WMFS Insurance Services, Inc.
WMGW Delaware Holdings LLC
WMHFA Delaware Holdings LLC
WMI Investment Corp.
WMI Rainier LLC
WMICC Delaware Holdings LLC
WMRP Delaware Holdings LLC
Yellowstone Venture, Inc.
Your concerns about A/L.
The 8k filing does include preliminary A/L besides operating income and expenses. You are right about it.
However when looking into a Balance Sheet you have to consider the accounting rules which dictate how value assets and liabilities.
Basically the key-core accounting rule that matters in this discussion is that the BS has to be conservative: "assets must be valued in the books" at its worst case valuation (lowest value) and liabilities at its worst case valuation ( higher value).
The value of the debt seems to be clear and neat... the 8B. Only 1B due during 2009. So creditors cannot force a liquidation.
The value of assets is obviously less clear. The cash is clear: above the well known 4.4b. The stake in public securities at market value. The stake in private companies at the original investment value - unless there are obvious reasons for the auditors to devaluate it (*). The real state at original investment value (*). .. etc..
(*) Very often the value of assets in accounting books is underestimated, since an investment made 5 or 10 years ago under normal conditions has higher value. But this cannot be reflected in books until it's sold out. Beaware that WMI owns many subsidiaries that are operating normally and some of these are significant. It also keeps real state properties, the ones not in WMB hands.
In summary: the 8K describes the very bottom possible valuation. Not necesarily the real value.
Then you must add the NOL value.
The original 1.9B have been taken by the FDIC and they will not come back to WMI. I am almost sure about it.
A final comment:
WMI as holding company is operational. Some posters consider that a holding company does not produce revenue or it's not operational. This is wrong. Basically the P/L of a holding:
- Has P/L (profit and loss) as consolidation of it's subsidiaries.
- Disinvests in what they consider non-strategic subsidiaries and reinvests in others that they define as strategic. These disinvestments produce either profit or loss in the holding books ( here the difference between book value and market value is important ).
Any change in the P/L produces value or decreases value for shareholders either through dividends or through retained profits or accrued losses.
So the ultimate value of WMI ( leaving apart NOL in a buyout ) has to do with:
A) A/L balance as per potential perceived market value of assets ( not as per book value )
B) The potential urgency or not urgency to have cash at hand to pay debt. If there is not any urgency to pay debts - seems to be the WMI case - then the disinvestments will be done at favourable prices.
C) The perception by analists and shareholders of the future strategic B. Plan - where they plan to disinvest and where they plan to invest - of the WMI holding. This may or not include an strategic move to sue FDIC for a potentially fraud seizure asking for billionary compensation.
A) ... hopefully by 19th/12 will be more clear
B) ... it seems that cash can support debt payments for several years .. hopefully to be fully confirmed on 16th/12
C) This will take longer and working seriously on this as well as communicating this credibly requires to have A) and B) settled.
THE KEY QUESTION IS:
with today's pps value this holding is valued around 50-60M$. Do you think this is a realistic value for this holding?
I personally don't think so.
ABOUT SHORTING:
The stock is been manipulated. Anyone analizing L2 and orders strings over the last weeks can see it. I did and some other posters too. For me this is a fact.
Why?
Here I am not sure.
The first cosideration is that manipulating it is damm cheap for players that do not pay brokerage commisions. Normal $ volume is below $1M per day these weeks. So manipulating this is not high risk for players like MMs.
Ok .. it explains that it's easy to manipulate, but this does not explain why? My possible explanations are:
I think it helped to cover cheaply previous short positions of Millons of shares. This is likely over.
I also think it helped the ones paying MMs to load shares at extremelly low prices. They can wait until A) B) and C) evolve.
And finally, in a stock under $0.1 the spread is often very big ( many times 4%) and it allows MMs and brokers to make business flipping in minutes within the spread. They have visibility at any time of demand and offer beyond what is visible in L2.
I agree with you that at this specific time it's unlikely that someone keeps selling short. But the previous 3 reasons may be enough to justify the manipulation.
Cheers!
GarryDenke...I don't follow you here.
Your link is the original 20th/Oct objection from the FDIC.
And that's precisely the sort of arguments that the FDIC may use and likely have been trying to use to preserve their "maybe existing" rights over the money and anyhow to delay the judge decision.
I don't see how that links to the WMIs attorneys statement that you smartly identified (*) about the WMI cash been part of what FDIC sold to JPM.
FDIC was appointed as receiver of WMB and as such it had power and was entitled to transfer in exchange of 1.9B as many assets and liabilities of WMB as they wanted.
But they were not at all empowered or entitled to include in that sale WMI assets. If they did so and if JPM really understood so - which by the way, seems not to be tha case - then the whole deal between JPM and FDIC would have been a fraud.
This money, was "deposited" in WMB accounts by WMI. This money was not "injected" into WMB balance sheet as either loan, or equity ( both cases would have produced an equivalent cash asset for WMB in the balance sheet).In the moment when this FDIC objection was filed, WMI had not details of the accounts where the money was, because they had not access to the records yet. Today, this is not the case. The accounts are clearly identified and listed now(**).
(*) From a previous post I understand that this wording about the cash by WMI attorneys was just a mistake. But if by any chance the FDIC really intended to include in the sale of WMI assets then they would be doing a fraud. And frauds can be undone by judges. By the way, again this seems not to be the case. The P&A Agreement between JPM and FDIC does not mention it, and it seems that a WMI attorney recoginized to a poste in yahoo that this was a typing or cut&paste mistake.
(**) At the end of the motion presented by WMI asking for more time to sell their positions in a couple fo securities, WMI lists all the bank accounts where their money is. This list includes now many WMB accounts, with the account number and the type off account - basically deposit accounts. All parties know by now exactly in which accounts the 4.4B are.
GarryDenke is on something.
First point, there is not any known hearing delay (yet!). But ..
Garry, you are right, once I read your post I checked these two wordings and they are significantly different. Then I jumped into the original FDIV-JPM P$A Agreement and I found nothing that suggests that the purchase agreement includes "WMI cash".
I did the reading fast, but focused in the definition of "Assets" (Article I, Definitions)as well as "Assets Purchased by Assuming Bank" (Article III, 3.1). I also reviwed rapididly other possible items relevant to your topic.
As far as I could see nowhere in the document specifies that the P&AA includes within the transaction the sale of WMI cash.
NOW, comming back to the two docs in your post:
- Both are written and filed by WMI attorneys
- The one from 26th/11 does not mention the WMI cash
- The one from 8th/12 mentions the WMI cash
Why would WMI's attorneys write that the WMI's cash was part of the deal in such a explicit way??
In principle it seems that if it's true - again, after my reading I think is not correct - it would be bad for WMI ....
unless ... ( and maybe this is the point ) either JPM and/or FDIC are now arguing that this was "implicitly included" or something similar to delay the 4.4B issue. .. but here comes the nice issue ... in case they manage to make a point:
either:
JPM convincingly claiming that they assumed this money was part of what FDCIs old them under the concept "whole bank"
or:
FDIC convicigly stating that this money was part of the deal, and that this was its intention...
then they are IN FACT demostrating that the deal is A FRAUD. Because FDIC was receiver of WMB and therefore it was neither entitled nor authorized to negotiate anything but WMB stuff, and they would have commited to transfer to JPM something they have not any right to transfer or negotiate about.
In my country, anyone selling something that it's not its property or it's not entitled to sell ... is making a FRAUD... and the consequences are (besides the seller going to jail) :
- either the deal is undone, the goods sold go back to the owner (WMB back to FDCI in this case, but without the 4.4b that go to WMI), and the buyer gets compensated for the hassle and costs involved (JPM in this case). Anyway the 3rd party (WMI) recovers it's assets (the 4.4B) that should have never been part of that deal.
- or the deal goes on as commited by the seller ( JPM gets the bank with the 4.4B) but the seller (FDIC) MUST compensate the 3rd party (WMI) poping up additional 4.4b plus, interests, plus eventual compensation for damages, etc...
So there are 4 scenarios:
1- It becomes clear that the 4.4B were not part of the deal.. back to WMI
2- It comes up that FDIC sold to JPM something that FDCI was NOT entitled to sell. which is FRAUD .. and the deal is undone.
3- It comes up that FDCI sold to JPM something that FDCI was NOT entitled to sell. which is FRAUD .. and the deal goes on but FDIC has to compensate WMI...
4.- Secenarios 2 and 3 are so ashaming and unbearable for JPM and FDIC that they go for fair WMI buyout.
Therefore WMI's interests are pretty shielded anyway.
In my opinion the most likely outcome is 1. But it if they got trapped in their "convincing arguments" about the 4.4b being part of the deal, then maybe they just cannot go back these arguments.
The most beneficial would be either 2 (but WMB+JPM integration is so mature that undoing it could be impossible to execute and too to costly in money and image for both: JPM and FDCI) or 4.
Guys, .. we know there must be a reason for WMI accepting the 4.4B delays .. and there must be a reason for WMIs attorneys changing this wording, they are not kids, ...
... maybe there are other reasons I fail to figure out, but ...
.. any thoughts?
... or it's just that now you are conviced I am crazy and I read too much scicience-fiction?
Dumb, do you really belive that once again - likely hundred of times today and thousands over last weeks, ... about 10 secs after a buy at 0.033 (ask) for 200k shares comes a 100 shares order at 0.0315 (bid)?
It's going to be tough until firm news come.
My opinion after analizing L2 evolution these weeks it is clearly that we have mainly professional buyers taking positions as cheap as possible and we have mainly amateur/retail normal investors selling out of depair or looking for eoy taxes reduction from losses.
The reasons for this thinking are mainly two:
- For weeks MMs have often been placing micro-orders (100 to 500 shares) at the bid almost inmediatly - 10 to 30 secs)after orders closed at the ask. ... thanks to it most of time - by far - the last pps is at the bid ... therefore capturing normal "market price orders" at the bid
- When volume is high like yesterday the bid is "hiden", it does not show up visible in L2, while the ask is visible in L2. There were moments yesterday when the bid at a given pps was apparently ver small and millions of shares were closed at that bid price whithout eroding the apparently small bid.
The ask is almost always visible for hours with big volumen and it's obviously and clearly ready to chase the bid. This is exactly what is happening right now. Yesterday was the same after the initiall rally.
SO, IT'S GOING TO BE TOUGH UNTIL NEWS COME, BUT I AM CONVINCED THAT PROFFESIONAL PLAYERS ARE EITHER CONVERING SHORT POSITIONS AND/OR BUYING FOR LONG AT AS CHEAP PRICES AS NORMAL INVESTORS LET THEM.
WM Inc. BK filing shows as it's address 1301, 2th AV, Seattle, WA.
but the court where it filled the case was in Delaware. I recall that at the beggining of all this, this was decided and agreed among parties since most of WM Inc business was based in Seattle.
Do you think this can be a problem, a source of delay or a matter for further litigation about it?
No, it doesn't include it.
It's just a requesto to have more time to sell the couple of positions in securities that they didn't convert into cash yet. These two are the only two remaing ones.
In BK the debtor must play safe and sell its positions in securities and convert them into cash or goverment backed securities. WMI did so with most of the ones they have when it filed for BK, but two of them. WMI assumption for these two is that with more time they can sell these two assets at much better price than if they have to rush to sell them off.
It's for the good of debtor as well as creditors - whose representantive have been consulted and agrees with the delay.
So if this is not contested by any party in the next week - unlikely - then WMI has 60 more days to get a better deal for everyone's benefit here.
Nothing to do with the 4.4B or the NOL or even the 19th assets/liabilities discussions.
Cheers.
The one who filed for BK is W. Mutual Inc.
Delay.?. it would surprise me.
We are getting used to it, but this time ??
- The last delay was long enough to settle many things
- They have agreed in how to exchange information WMI-JPM & WMI-FDIC. The very first exchange of info would be focused in the WMB accounts holding the 4.4B.
- The filing for the Sec is needed.
- Based in the 8k expenses there are already quite a number of people working on it for weeks now.
- Precisely because of the EoY period another delay would again be long.
I just, simply could not understand WMI accepting or proposing more delays ...
unless there is a real buyout negotiation behind the scenes. ..I know, Iknow we have speculated a lot about it and it did not showed up .. don't jump on me!! .. but it's just common sense that if WMI is ready for more delays to get their money back there must be solid reasons..
... leaving apart the buyout topic .. this time it would surprise me to see another delay in the 4.4B topic.
With the link.. NOL & Banks..
sorry! I forgot to paste the link:
http://209.85.173.132/search?q=cache:sVcT3Il5i_oJ:www.mondaq.com/article.asp%3Farticleid%3D67740+%22net+operating+loss%22+bank+holding+company+acquisition+irs&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us
Info about NOL & Banks..
it mentions without naming it the case of Wachovia in the first Q&A.