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I believe the resource report,the main harbinger of growing wealth,is coming and sooner than thought;my grapevine tells me.
Less than a month I am hearing.
Now don't you just love grapes.I will be planting more coming spring.Sad thing is,I cannot find the great USA grape,the Concord.
I first bought in for $1.80.Then I added more at $4.70 and as we know,GORO dropped a lot below that.Now I am happy I paid $4.70.
I will add a little more to my position at this price,as it time,I suspect,$6 will take its place in the wish I got more at that table.
By end of this year we will know a lot more about production.I can wait.All promised has come and far better to timetable than most could dare to hope.
Capital Gold is subject now to dd by the major that allowed Brownlie and co to explore the property.Rio Tinto I recall,but I cannnot be bothered checking.Another miner ,at least,is also looking.
The details re when?Honestly,if anyone has has such inside info their duty lies in silence and suggestions.
If,as many believe,CG is to be taken over,profitably so for current owners,then some very good people,like Mr Brownlie,could need and want a new honme.
I believe if Brownlie comes on board full time.TRGD will begin its 3 rd,and most significant barnstorming run.
As it is,let cashflow and resource estimates be our guide.
So some owners still target a SP of $20.I admit I do,but only as a stage post on the way to $40.That pricing is really based just on one property still.When it reaches $40 I will remodel.
Yes PZG has a lot of land near surrounding SM.It has big potential well beyond SM
Near $5.70 Not bad for starters.We can discuss our stocks worth,in a years time.Then another year's time.Come to think of it,we can forget discussing value and just hold.Such a simple receipe for success.
Maybe so but if partners cannot meet contractural obligations,properties are very likely to return to us.
Meridian was very interested in Picachio for example.
Bobwins,is it fair to suggest relatively unknown juniors,are likely to have trouble gaining strong JV partners?
I do suspect events this year will strengthen TRGD's hand when choosing partners.
A great move.Well deserved.We are building a fine team.Let's hope the CG members come on board full time.
Whisper that the PZG resource update could be out early June.
Lots to add for the new report.
St Luis drilling coming soon.They had some bonanza grades when previously mining there.
TED BUTLER'S ARCHIVES
TED BUTLER COMMENTARY
May 5, 2008
Another Sick New Record
(This essay was written by silver analyst Theodore Butler, an independent consultant. Investment Rarities does not necessarily endorse these views, which may or may not prove to be correct.)
The engineered sell-off of gold and silver by the big commercial shorts continued over the past week. However, there were decidedly mixed results in the dealers’ attempt to force speculative long liquidation in each market, even though gold declined almost $50 and silver $1.20 in the latest reporting week (ended Tuesday). For positions held as of April 29, the Commitment of Traders Report (COT) indicated a further commercial net short reduction of 14,000 contracts in COMEX gold futures, but no liquidation at all in silver.
Over the past two COT reporting weeks, there has been a commercial net short liquidation of almost 20,000 contracts (2 million ounces) in gold on the almost $90 decline in price. But in silver, on a $2 price sell-off, there has been no reduction in the commercial net short position. In fact, the total net commercial silver short position increased by 2,000 contracts (10 million ounces). I don’t recall ever seeing such a large price decline in silver with no dealer short liquidation. What does this mean?
It means one of two things. Either the dealers will continue to press the price to the downside to hunt out speculative silver long liquidation, or that no further liquidation is possible and we will move up in price, perhaps sharply. It’s just my opinion, but I sense a big move up shortly.
Further, this gold liquidation cycle with no silver liquidation is reinforced in the behavior of the big ETFs in gold (GLD) and silver (SLV), as discussed in last week’s article. Since that article was written, there was further liquidation of the physical gold holdings in GLD of 350,000 ounces and an increase (as I wrote that I sensed coming) of 5 million ounces in the SLV. And yes, I still think the explanation lies in an outbreak of common sense, as more recognize the superior relative value of silver compared to gold.
I hope no one interprets my words of the liquidation in gold, both on the COMEX and in GLD, as me being bearish on gold because of that liquidation. That is definitely not the case. Liquidation shakes out weak hands, tech funds and other momentum traders. That strengthens, not weakens, the bullish case for gold. It’s not a case of gold being bearish, it’s just a case of silver being much more bullish than gold’s developing bullish structure.
The latest COT did establish one strong similarity between gold and silver that is not present in any other major market, namely, the outrageous level of the concentrated net short percentage of the largest traders. Even though, as predicted last week, the unusually large number of phony silver spreads that were liquidated would have the effect of boosting the reported concentrated percentages in silver dramatically, that doesn’t come close to telling the whole story. Yes, the silver spread liquidation did result in the largest one-week jump in the stated percentages of the largest short traders (big 4 from 38% to 44.2%, big 8 from 46% to 56.6%) to among the largest reported concentration percentages in history. But the real story is still the true concentrated percentages, once the remaining spreads are subtracted from total open interest.
In fact, the 8 largest traders in COMEX silver set a new sick record of concentration of 83% once the spreads are removed, up from 82% last week. In other words, the near-record reported net short percentage of 56.6% is understated by almost half again. Forget that no other market has, or has had, such a extreme concentration (save gold), no other market even comes close.
In terms of commodity law and common sense, there are no words that come to me that can fully describe just how extreme is the percent of short concentration in silver (and gold). Those that speak with me know I have trouble trying to describe its dimensions. I sit amazed every day that this is allowed to exist. I honestly don’t understand why the regulators and informed market observers are not making a big deal about it. Let me be clear - there is nothing more important in silver or gold.
So large is the concentrated short position in silver that I feel we have just witnessed the high-water mark, that won’t ever be exceeded. I say this for two reasons. One, the arrival of first notice day should reduce the number of shorts held by the big traders in the next COT report due to deliveries, as well should liquidation after the latest COT’s cut-off date. But the most important reason why I don’t think we will ever exceed the 83% mark of the latest report is that it is already so far above even the most extreme levels I could have ever imagined. Surely the regulators can’t be that negligent or incompetent to allow this to occur ever again.
The only mystic source I rely on certainly sees a major upheavel in 2008,severely disrupting international travel.
I merely make the jump to Iran,but then serious trouble is brewing there.The USA is not sending a second aircraftcarrier flotilla for a gas guzling contest.Iran's influence on Hezbollah-in Palestine,Lebanon,plus interferance in Iraq,can hardly be ignored.I believe an Israeli taskforce was stopped by the USA on the way to Iran,over Iraq recently.Probably a joint attack will occur .Hezbollah is well and deeply entrenched in Lebanon,literally.If small nuclear weapons are used there-or Iran,the repercussions in the Arab world will make Iraq looks a summer picnic,I fear.
Trouble with Nostradamus,he is so variously interpretable.Then again,the ancient Mayan calender predicts 2012 as the end of the world as we know it.
The bible saw this all coming in John's revelations.
Far from perfect but I still see a confluence of events moving us in 2008.
The cashflow and financials should come within a few months.The CG takeover could give our new staff greater motivation to join TRGD fulltime.That,and a stake in TRGD would be great.
If you add in my geo-political concern-the Middle East,you get a major spike in PM likely.I believe the current lebanon situation could be the final tilt-that dives a USA/Israeli strike on Iran.The consequences of that will be huge.As in Iraq,the consequences will be far worse than imagined.
Add in the tightrope of the world's financial/inflation/paper money printing game,allied with insurance cos having 43 trillion dollars exposed guaranteeing bonds -and you have more interesting times than men would wish on enemies.
Gene,my understanding is TRGD has a potential entitlement,if we wish.I do not believe it is for 30% though.I also think PZG would have done better to let TRGD handle negotiotions for that property.Rich/Ramario are great buyers.
The property concerned is small but very well located.
If CG gets bought out,there are 2 quality personel already linked to TRGD,that could want full time employment and a new place to wisely invest.
Suits me.I suspect it will suit us.
Gene your numbers for the past report are not quite right.You are right of course,in tems of what was published.I asked IRs many months ago about the quality of the 43101 compliance.He told me,for the asset initially disclosed to be classed as the highest class of 43101 (Sorry,forgot my terms)PZG would need a lot of infill drilling.The suggestion was maybe a doubling up of drilling-hence I have used 1/2 million ounces per drill hole,myself.
This issue is probably worth calling PZG IR again,for greater clarity.
Fine post.
You are right Sam.PZG does not seem to be behaving in accord with the JV agreement.The entry right to related proprty purchases is fairly common and I believe,a feature of the PZG/TRGD agreement.
PZG to gain a controlling interest in cashshort Mexoro.looks like a very good deal for both companies.More exploration potential for both,with the cash to drill,plus the ability now to restart existing,permitted mines.
Update re Mexoro.Looks like PZG will get a controlling share of a cash short Mexoro and the deal has very good synagies.
I do not think TRGD comes into the frame.
Metals Surge as Rationing Cuts Power at Biggest Mines (Update1)
By Saijel Kishan and Gavin Evans
May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Chile's worst drought in five decades and power rationing from South Africa to China mean the price of aluminum, gold, copper and platinum will keep climbing as the lights go out in the world's biggest mines.
Those governments are being forced to choose whether to reduce power to their 1.4 billion residents or curtail energy supplies to the world's biggest copper, aluminum, platinum and gold factories. The energy used by China's aluminum smelters each week could provide enough power for more than 2 million people for an entire year.
Runaway growth in emerging markets that's squeezing world oil supplies has led to electricity shortages, cutting output of commodities needed for ever-rising demand. Platinum jumped to a record in January after mines in South Africa closed for five days as utilities rationed power. Cobalt gained 58 percent in the past year as production growth in the Democratic Republic of Congo was limited by electricity supply.
``There will be a sustained level of risk from power shortages in the commodities markets,'' said Michael Lewis, London-based global head of commodities research at Deutsche Bank AG. ``We are pricing bigger supply losses as a result.''
Metals are headed for a seventh straight year of price increases even as the worst U.S. housing slump reduced consumption in the world's biggest economy. Investors added $40 billion to funds indexed to commodity prices in the first quarter, more than in all of 2007, Citigroup Inc. estimates.
Platinum, Aluminum
Platinum, used in jewelry and car parts, climbed 25 percent since the end of December to $1,911 an ounce in New York today, while aluminum gained 21 percent to $2,920 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. Copper climbed 26 percent to $8,410 a tons on the LME.
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the world's biggest publicly traded copper producer, Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, the largest in iron ore, and gold producer Newmont Mining Corp. all say power shortages threaten to reduce future production.
Rio Tinto Group, the second-biggest aluminum producer, cut output at its New Zealand smelter by 5 percent, or 1,400 metric tons a month, on May 1 because of power constraints caused by drought. Anglo Platinum Ltd., the world's biggest producer of that metal, said April 29 that first-quarter output plunged 24 percent to 428,600 ounces because of cuts in the supply of electricity to its South African mines.
Congo Cobalt
Congo, the world's largest source of cobalt used in batteries and jet engines, asked mining companies May 2 to cut electricity use after power-transmission cables were stolen.
Credit Suisse Group, Switzerland's second-biggest bank by assets, raised its 2008 cobalt forecast by 50 percent to $45 a pound on March 26 because of Congo's electricity shortages. The price was at $48.50 on May 2, according to Metal Bulletin data.
The mining industry and the analysts that follow it have underestimated the extent of supply disruptions from strikes and power shortages, Rio Tinto Chief Economist Vivek Tulpule said April 21.
``Those phenomena will persist,'' Tulpule said. ``It wouldn't surprise me to see prices for some of the base metals continue to rise.''
Smelting aluminum uses about four times as much power as for copper and more than twice that of zinc, according to Barclays Capital. About 80 percent of world aluminum smelting capacity is in nations at risk of electricity shortages, according to Citigroup.
Structural Challenge
``Problems in South Africa and China with electrical capacity are not just bad luck, but result from a lack of investment,'' said Kevin Norrish, commodity research director at Barclays. ``Energy availability in the next 10 years is going to be a very important issue to the mining sector. We see these as structural changes, not cyclical changes.''
China built 549.3 billion yuan ($79 billion) of generators and power lines last year, according to state officials. Accelerating demand will tighten the nation's power supply again within two years, according to Citigroup, which estimates shortages there cut first-quarter copper output by 40,000 tons, zinc by 125,000 tons and aluminum by 600,000 tons.
``We're not going to solve these power shortages without new facilities,'' said Evy Hambro, who manages BlackRock Inc.'s $17 billion World Mining Fund in London.
Electricity Supplies Thin
Electricity supplies remain ``tight'' in more than half of China, the nation's top economic planner said last week, adding that warm weather may cut hydropower output this summer. Energy shortages in South Africa, the world's largest source of platinum, may last seven years, state-owned utility Eskom Holdings Ltd. forecasts. Rationing there looks likely until new power plants start up in 2012, Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty said.
``We've been through a period of 20 years when there hasn't been much built in terms of new capacity,'' said Tim Barker, who helps manage more than $54 billion of assets at BT Financial Group in Sydney. ``We're probably reaping the reward of that lack of foresight.''
Eskom is cutting electricity across cities and rationing power to industry including BHP Billiton Ltd. and Anglo Platinum, which mines a third of the world's supply of the metal. South Africa produces 10 percent of the world's gold and 78 percent of its platinum.
Chile, the world's biggest copper producer, faces the risk of energy rationing after the worst drought in 50 years lowered hydropower reserves amid a shortage of natural gas for generators.
Copper Outlook
Copper may have further to increase. In inflation-adjusted terms, the price hasn't yet reached a record, according to Barclays. In real terms, the metal is trading close to levels last seen a century ago, when the U.S. economy was expanding and the nation was being wired for electricity.
China, which is making a similar transformation, is building power stations and transmission lines that are exacerbating deficits in metals supply. As much as 80 percent of China's grid investment is spent on copper, said Yuan Genfa, secretary general of the Shanghai Electric Wire & Cable Industry Association.
``Over 50 percent of China's copper use is electrical use,'' said Na Liu, director of Institutional Equity at Scotia Capital Inc. ``The electricity grid, for the most part, is copper wire.''
Chile may be forced to limit power use for the first time since 1999 because drought reduced water levels at hydroelectric reservoirs, said Mauricio Canas, an analyst at research company Penta Estrategia & Inversiones in Santiago.
Government policies put in place this year to ease power demand, such as lowering electricity voltage, may not be enough to avert rationing if the drought persists, Canas said. Codelco and Freeport, the world's two biggest copper producers, have mines in provinces vulnerable to drought-related rationing.
``There just hasn't been enough planning to accommodate the growth of Asia's economies,'' said Francisco Blanch, London-based global head of commodities research at Merrill Lynch & Co. ``To allow China and India to have a middle class, we need to go back to the drawing board and boost investments in power infrastructure. And if this doesn't happen, we're going to see even more brown- outs.''
To contact the reporters on this story: Saijel Kishan in London at skishan@bloomberg.net; Gavin Evans in Wellington at gavinevans@bloomberg.n
Well a major clearly wants in to PZG and its share of SM and I suggest,the huge Andean holding is wanted!This is likely to bode well for GGI too.
The big questions are:
How significant is this to the SP of PZG?
Seems to me it makes valuing PZG difficult presently.
More particularly,where is our TRGD?
Do note,clavo 99 has been linked to Mexoro's property.
What happens to the rest of SM(TRGD's ?)No mention of TRGD this far.
I cannot see TRGD wanting to have its 30% submerged.
Looks like the rationisation of holdings in the Sierra Madre is on the way.
I wonder what Rich has for us now?
May 5, 2008
Paramount Gold and Silver Corp. Enters Into Strategic Alliance with Mexoro Minerals Ltd. in Mexico
CHIHUAHUA, MEXICO--(Marketwire - May 5, 2008) - Paramount Gold and Silver Corp. (TSX:PZG)(AMEX:PZG)(FRANKFURT:P6G)(WKN:A0HGKQ) is pleased to announce that it has signed a Letter of Intent to enter into a strategic alliance with Mexoro Minerals Ltd. (OTCBB:MXOM)(FRANKFURT:OYA1). The strategic alliance contemplates both companies combining their mining and exploration expertise including resources such as management, personnel, exploration equipment and mining concessions to maximize shareholder value creating an exciting alignment of interest between the companies. Both companies operate projects in the Sierra Madre gold-silver belt in Chihuahua, Mexico. The synergy of this transaction will be evident as the companies work together in the Guazapares region. The combined position in the area creates a large land position allowing opportunities for exploration and development strategies to maximize shareholder value as per figure 1, which may be viewed at http://www.paramountgold.com/projects/san_miguel_maps.asp.
The companies will also combine Paramount's recently discovered "Clavo 99" with Mexoro's Encino Gordo project for a land package in excess of 1,000 hectares situated immediately east of Coeur d'Alene's Palmarejo Trogan Project. The location map, figure 2, which may be viewed at http://www.paramountgold.com/projects/san_miguel_maps.asp illustrates Paramount's 'Clavo 99' which trends north-northwest into Mexoro's Encino Gordo project.
In addition, the companies will establish an exploration team to co-develop Paramount's 86,000 hectare Andrea concession with the neighboring Mexoro Cieneguita Mine. Cieneguita was last in production by Glamis Gold Ltd. between 1995 and 1998 prior to its acquisition by Goldcorp Inc. Please see figure 3, the location map of Paramount's Andrea Concession and Mexoro's Cieneguita Mine at http://www.paramountgold.com/projects/san_miguel_maps.asp.
The agreement calls for Paramount to invest a minimum of $4 million and maximum of $6 million into Mexoro, fixed at a price of $0.50 per unit by June 23, 2008. Each unit will consist of 1 common share of Mexoro and one half warrant to purchase additional common shares at a price of $0.75 per share exercisable immediately for a period of four years from closing. Should Paramount subscribe for the maximum, it would receive 12 million shares and 6 million warrants in the offering. The closing price of Mexoro shares quoted on the OTCBB on May 2, 2008 was $0.59 per share. The Letter of Intent contemplates that Paramount will provide an immediate cash infusion into Mexoro in the amount of $500,000 in the form of a secured convertible debenture bearing interest at a rate of 8% per annum for a term of one year. Paramount will have the option to convert the debt into units as part of the overall financing. Paramount will retain the first right of refusal on all future financings of Mexoro for a period of four years.
Christopher Crupi, Paramount's Chief Executive Officer, will be appointed President of Mexoro upon completion of the financing and Mario Ayub will remain the Chairman of Mexoro. Paramount will have the right to appoint two members to the board of directors of Mexoro. Mr. Ayub may also be appointed to the board of directors of Paramount and will act as strategic advisor to Paramount. Mario Ayub is a chemical engineer and is a specialist in metallurgy. Mr. Ayub has served as President of the Chihuahua Mining Association from 2002- 2005 and from 1998 to 2002 was president of the National Miners Association of Mexico.
The companies will form a joint exploration and development management committee with the responsibility of reviewing and planning the exploration programs of both companies. Charles William (Bill) Reed and Barry Quiroz will remain Vice President of Exploration for Paramount and Mexoro respectively. Barry Quiroz is a geologist and has held a management position with BHP Billiton.
Christopher Crupi commented on the transaction, "Combining our exploration assets with those of Mexoro, particularly our San Miguel concessions in the Guazapares region, will give the companies significant property holdings for exploration in the mineral rich and prolific Sierra Madre gold-silver belt. Together, the companies control over 100,000 hectares within three historic mining districts and the combined exploration teams of over 100 people will be one of the most experienced in Mexico."
Mario Ayub, President of Mexoro, said "This transaction results in synergies on many levels. Paramount is a well managed and well financed company trading on senior exchanges. The strategic geographical positioning of our properties in relation to Paramount, coupled with our common vision of an aggressive exploration program in this prolific area provides the potential for significant success going forward."
So Clavo 99 is to be combined with other property is it?
Funny,I thought Clavo 99 was part of the San Miguel property JV.
Has SM been split up?
Where does TRGD,the seemingly forgotten 30% owner of SM,fit in this 'arangement'
Most interesting.
Paramount Gold and Silver Corp. Enters Into Strategic Alliance with Mexoro Minerals Ltd. in Mexico
CHIHUAHUA, MEXICO--(Marketwire - May 5, 2008) - Paramount Gold and Silver Corp. (TSX:PZG)(AMEX:PZG)(FRANKFURT:P6G)(WKN:A0HGKQ) is pleased to announce that it has signed a Letter of Intent to enter into a strategic alliance with Mexoro Minerals Ltd. (OTCBB:MXOM)(FRANKFURT:OYA1). The strategic alliance contemplates both companies combining their mining and exploration expertise including resources such as management, personnel, exploration equipment and mining concessions to maximize shareholder value creating an exciting alignment of interest between the companies. Both companies operate projects in the Sierra Madre gold-silver belt in Chihuahua, Mexico. The synergy of this transaction will be evident as the companies work together in the Guazapares region. The combined position in the area creates a large land position allowing opportunities for exploration and development strategies to maximize shareholder value as per figure 1, which may be viewed at http://www.paramountgold.com/projects/san_miguel_maps.asp.
The companies will also combine Paramount's recently discovered "Clavo 99" with Mexoro's Encino Gordo project for a land package in excess of 1,000 hectares situated immediately east of Coeur d'Alene's Palmarejo Trogan Project. The location map, figure 2, which may be viewed at http://www.paramountgold.com/projects/san_miguel_maps.asp illustrates Paramount's 'Clavo 99' which trends north-northwest into Mexoro's Encino Gordo project.
In addition, the companies will establish an exploration team to co-develop Paramount's 86,000 hectare Andrea concession with the neighboring Mexoro Cieneguita Mine. Cieneguita was last in production by Glamis Gold Ltd. between 1995 and 1998 prior to its acquisition by Goldcorp Inc. Please see figure 3, the location map of Paramount's Andrea Concession and Mexoro's Cieneguita Mine at http://www.paramountgold.com/projects/san_miguel_maps.asp.
The agreement calls for Paramount to invest a minimum of $4 million and maximum of $6 million into Mexoro, fixed at a price of $0.50 per unit by June 23, 2008. Each unit will consist of 1 common share of Mexoro and one half warrant to purchase additional common shares at a price of $0.75 per share exercisable immediately for a period of four years from closing. Should Paramount subscribe for the maximum, it would receive 12 million shares and 6 million warrants in the offering. The closing price of Mexoro shares quoted on the OTCBB on May 2, 2008 was $0.59 per share. The Letter of Intent contemplates that Paramount will provide an immediate cash infusion into Mexoro in the amount of $500,000 in the form of a secured convertible debenture bearing interest at a rate of 8% per annum for a term of one year. Paramount will have the option to convert the debt into units as part of the overall financing. Paramount will retain the first right of refusal on all future financings of Mexoro for a period of four years.
Christopher Crupi, Paramount's Chief Executive Officer, will be appointed President of Mexoro upon completion of the financing and Mario Ayub will remain the Chairman of Mexoro. Paramount will have the right to appoint two members to the board of directors of Mexoro. Mr. Ayub may also be appointed to the board of directors of Paramount and will act as strategic advisor to Paramount. Mario Ayub is a chemical engineer and is a specialist in metallurgy. Mr. Ayub has served as President of the Chihuahua Mining Association from 2002- 2005 and from 1998 to 2002 was president of the National Miners Association of Mexico.
The companies will form a joint exploration and development management committee with the responsibility of reviewing and planning the exploration programs of both companies. Charles William (Bill) Reed and Barry Quiroz will remain Vice President of Exploration for Paramount and Mexoro respectively. Barry Quiroz is a geologist and has held a management position with BHP Billiton.
Christopher Crupi commented on the transaction, "Combining our exploration assets with those of Mexoro, particularly our San Miguel concessions in the Guazapares region, will give the companies significant property holdings for exploration in the mineral rich and prolific Sierra Madre gold-silver belt. Together, the companies control over 100,000 hectares within three historic mining districts and the combined exploration teams of over 100 people will be one of the most experienced in Mexico."
Mario Ayub, President of Mexoro, said "This transaction results in synergies on many levels. Paramount is a well managed and well financed company trading on senior exchanges. The strategic geographical positioning of our properties in relation to Paramount, coupled with our common vision of an aggressive exploration program in this prolific area provides the potential for significant success going forward."
I cannot really follow your kind advice.
My chest is no boosting point so the mirror is best avoided.
I do want to pound ,but on my bank manager's desk,when our TRGD boat comes in!
Does that count?
Must be getting close to new assay news.
Wunsch,you seem a very lazy investor.You cannot have much financial involvement,I presume,or you would do some homework.
What PZG property do you refer?Which of the 4 others pretty much adjacent San Miguel.
Have a look on the Northern Miner map.If you do not have it,go to the PZG website.The maps are clear.
You might check out GGI too.Then again that would take some time.You seem content to moan rather that study and to contribute helpfully.
MM.Generous posts.I know you will have discussed our stock with many knowledgable people before making such comments.Please ignore the ill found criticism of you by those without the sense to realise what you are doing.
Sam stagflation is what we had in the 1970s-1980s,till Paul Volker came on the scene.During 6/8 last recessions,prices rose.
This time,things could be somewhat different (patterns are often similar but not identical)in that quite a large part of the world has USA paper money 'relative insulation'.The oil exporters,much of asia too.That is relavent as in the Arab world,there are gigantic infrastructural projects demanding commodities.Huge new cities and a monster new Disneyland,need hard commodities.Then bring in China-massive unprecedented infrastructural spending by the govt.They have planned 50 new cities,averaging 10 million people.You cannot rebuild more than all the USA cities,without concrete,steel,copper,lead,aluminium....The chinese are spending 200 billion alone,on new power plants!Again,a trillion of so USA paper dollars already banked, to pay for it.
Consider too,while a western world depression would affect all,the asian world is a saver world.They do have the ability to live on accumulated 'fat' for quite some time as they can encourage spending internally,a la Korea 1998.That and the fact much of asia has relatively reduced its reliance on the green paper kingdom.
Sam,large increases in living standards for 3 billion plus people has never happened before.The relative commodity shortage is a new one, as the potential demand is literally impossible to supply,if one logically sustains the patterns of the last 10 years.
The USA is in serious trouble,as is Oceania and Europe.
Check the food rationing already occurring in the USA.
Check the food price rises.
Check the official inflation lies.
Check the airline travel downturn.
Check the house foreclosures.
Check the banks refusing to do interbank lending.
And it has but started.
CPM says silver price will be strong late in 2008, early 2009
CPM Group forecasts that total silver supply, mine production, and fabrication demand will increase this year, as investors continue to be net buyers of 74.9 million ounces.
Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Wednesday , 30 Apr 2008
RENO, NV -
CPM Group's Silver Yearbook 2008 released Tuesday forecasts that net investor buying is expected to keep silver prices strong this year, although seasonal price weakness is anticipated during the second and third quarters.
The New York-based precious metals consultants predicted that higher silver prices are expected later this year and early in 2009.
SILVER OUTLOOK
•· This year total supply is projected to increase to 815.1 million ounce, a 3.9% increase mostly attributable to a sharp increase in mine production.
•· Total mine production is projected to be 557.4 million ounces, up 4.1% or 23.7 million ounces from last year. "Numerous major new mines, smaller mines, and expansions are underway around the world, which should boost production in 2008 and beyond."
•· Mine production in Peru could increase slightly to 112.9 million ounces this year. Silver mine output in Mexico is projected to increase to 104.5 million ounces in 2008. Australian silver production could rise to 65.1 million ounces. Silver output in Chile could total 59 million ounces. Silver mine production in Poland is expected to remain at 42 million ounces this year. U.S. silver mine output is projected to increase slightly to 38.4 million ounces. This year Canadian mine output is projected to increase marginally to 27.9 million ounces.
•· Total silver fabrication demand is projected to rise modestly by 2.2% to 740.2 million ounces in 2008. "While higher prices should be expected to restrain the growth of silver use in jewelry and other applications, the price effect may be relatively limited."
•· Demand for silver use in jewelry and silverware is projected to rise 4.6% to a total of 273.5 million ounces in 2008.
•· Silver use for electronics and batteries is forecast to rise to 125.8 million in 2008, up 5.3% from current levels.
•· Silver used for mirrors, brazing alloys, anti-bacterial medication, solders, biocides, and superconductors and other similar applications is expected to rise around 3% to 167.7 million ounces in 2008. The United States is expected to account for 3.1 million ounces of the projected 5.4- million ounce increase.
•· Investors are forecast to be net buyers of 74.9 million ounces of silver this year. "At relatively lower prices, silver could seem more attractive to investors. Going forward this could result in a decline of the gold/silver ratio to lower levels."
•· No significant sales of silver from government inventories are anticipated this year.
REVIEW
CPM's research found that the sharp increase in the price of silver last year "reflected strong investment demand, from many parts of the world and from many types of investors. ...Investors were buying silver for all of the same reasons they were buying gold: As a safe haven during times of financial market distress, as an inflation hedge, as a hedge against a falling dollar, and more. They also found silver interesting because it has stronger fundamentals behind it.
"Fabrication demand has held up well. Supplies are rising, but not so fast as to overwhelm the market. Inventories meanwhile are low in many markets around the world. Given the perception that silver's fundamentals were more positive than gold, some investors were buying silver for commodities-oriented reasons, as well as for all of the financial reasons mentioned above."
Meanwhile, CPM noted that, "humorously, some mining analysts lamented at the start of 2008 that silver prices had risen ‘only' 15.3% over the course of 2007, while gold prices rose 31.3% from start to finish last year. They overlooked the fact that silver prices had risen 45.5% over the course of 2006, twice the 23% increase in gold prices over the same time.
"And they overlooked the fact that the silver price averaged $13.45 in 2007," CPM added. "That was 15.9% higher than the $11.61 average in 2006. It compares to a 15.4% increase in the average gold price last year, from $606.67 in 2006 to $700.11"
The gyrations of the silver price over the past 15 months have reflected both silver-specific trends and broader financial market trends, according to CPM's analysis. "The increased demand for silver from investors, and the decline in sales of silver from long-term investors, has shifted the dynamics of the silver market, which has been reflected in the price of silver."
OTHER YEARBOOK RESEARCH FINDINGS
In 2007 total silver supply was 784.8 million ounces of which 68% came from mine production, according to CPM. It was the smallest increase in total supply since 2002, when silver supplies declined 19.6 million ounces.
World mine production of silver increased 4.1% to a record 533.7 million ounces last year, according to the yearbook. Since about four-fifths of world mine silver output is a byproduct, higher gold, copper, lead and zinc prices have increased production at these mines as well.
Silver use increased 0.9% or 6.3 million ounces to a total of 724 million ounces in 2007. Demand is rising in electronic components where silver is an alternative to gold, palladium and platinum. CPM suggested that next generation silver batteries may begin to emerge, which could lead to a sharp increase in silver use in these applications.
CPM estimated that four exchange-traded silver investment trusts held 230.4 million ounces of silver at the end of last year. Total ETF physical silver holdings stood at 230,386,911 ounces at the end of 2007. At the end of February 2008 total holdings increased to 236,604,557 ounces with two new ETFs holding 10% of the total silver ETF holdings.
Activity in the future and options markets among large non-commercial participants also indicated an increase in investment demand, according to CPM. "Non-commercial market participants have been increasing their gross long positions since September 2007."
However silver coin demand has remained relatively flat since the beginning of this decade. Global silver coinage during 2008 is projected at 16 million ounces, CPM said.
Silver bullion inventories rose last year with another 60.5 million ounces added. CPM estimates silver bullion inventories currently range from between 450 million to 550 million ounces.
Market silver inventories at the end of 2007 increased 15.2% to 153.6 million ounces, according to the yearbook. Reported inventories rose 33.1% to 384 million ounces in 2007. These include both market inventories and ETFs.
CPM estimated that at the end of 2007, government silver inventories declined from 63.7 million ounces in 2006 to 55.7 million ounces. "Out of 55.7 million ounces of government inventories in 2007, it is estimated that 19.1 million ounces are held by the non-RBI in India, 19.9 million ounces by the U.S. government, seven million ounces by the Mexican government, and the remaining 9.7 million ounces by other governments."
Meanwhile, CPM reported that the total volume of silver cleared through the London Bullion Market Association declined from 36.8 billion ounces in 2006 to 28.9 billion ounces in 2007.
Combined trading volumes for 2007 on the four major futures and options exchanges rose 11.9% in 2007 to 58.7 billion ounces, according to the yearbook. Silver Comex futures contract settlement prices rose 15% from the end of 2006 to the end of 2007.
Annual silver price volatility stood at 26.1% in 2007, down from 45% in the prior year. "Volatility is calculated as the standard deviation of the daily logarithmic price changes." By December 2007, the gold to silver price ratio was 55.3:1. During 2007 the price of gold rose by 31% while the price of silver was up 15%, according to CPM.
Mr Brownlie,from the Capital Gold site.
"JOHN BROWNLIE,
Chief Operating Officer and Director, has worked for us since May 2006 and is in charge of supervising the construction, start-up and operation of the mine. Mr. Brownlie provided team management for mining projects requiring technical, administrative, political and cultural experience over his 28 year mining career. From 2000 to 2006, Mr. Brownlie was a consultant providing mining and mineral related services to various companies including SRK, Oxus Mining plc and Cemco Inc. From 1995 to 2000, he was the General Manager for the Zarafshan-Newmont Joint Venture in Uzbekistan, a one-million tonne per month heap leach plant which produced over 400,000 ounces of gold per year. From 1988 to 1995, Mr. Brownlie served as the Chief Engineer and General Manager for Monarch Resources in Venezuela, at both the El Callao Revemin Mill and La Camorra gold projects. Before that, was a resident of South Africa and associated with numerous mineral projects across Africa. He is also a mechanical engineer and fluent in Spanish. "
I believe Mr Brownlie and our CEO have been friends for some time.Mr Brownlie can afford to be choosey and Rich only wants trustworthy,able people involved with TRGD.Our major weakness-lack of production experience is not countered.One might add,Mr Brownlie knows a lot of experienced miners so he can be a big help,as we need to bring in staff to run our mining operations.
Nice one MM(Though I have the mortgage has but a light grip)
When TRGD announces major developments,I believe such has to be included in forthcoming financials so very sensible to roll our some more numbers expeditiously.
May 1.May Pole dancing time.May celebrates spring.Spring is a time of new life and growth.Spring doth bring the matrimonial urges-let their be much growth a product of evening practice.
Why TRGD could be coming into a growing season too.Let Don do a little seeding for us.
A fine post.A very good summation.
In time GORO will make headlines-for production,for resources.I belie ve we can afford to be patient.Most of us have done our own calculations.
Greg McCoach sees $2,000 gold this year.
What would that do to GORO once we are producing?
Not For sale.
I suspect someone is shorting us prepatory to taking a serious position in our stock.
Thank you Shiester.It looks like the USA,canada,NZ all have silver shortages as silver is falling!
That strongly suggests the price is being made by the futures market.Real metal demand /supply will set the medium/longer term price.
I recall Doug Casey writing some months back.
"It happens slower than you think then faster than you think"
It is happening now and faster.
Check prices,check foreclosures,check rents,check the far ,check govt money production.
It was Bill Butler that wrote the first crucial element of freedom is a good currency.It was Von Misses that stated,all moves toward govt control are moves toward tyranny.
Welcome to tomorrow-and gold and silver's pre eminence.
New use for silver.Hopefully this will produce more serious demand.
"Mitsui Mining & Smelting Co. reported developing a silver-based diesel exhaust catalyst, replacing the more expensive metal. Palladium also declined. Mitsui, a partner in Japan's biggest copper smelter, plans to start selling the silver-based devices in Japan, the U.S. and Europe in 2012, according to a statement yesterday. Platinum has jumped 54 percent in the past year, partly on expectations that demand for automotive catalysts will rise as governments impose tougher pollution controls. Mitsui Mining follows Japanese automakers Nissan Motor Co., Mazda Motor Corp. and Daihatsu Motor Co., which last year announced plans for parts that reduce platinum usage to cut costs. Mitsui said the silver-based technology is for use in farming and construction machinery, rather than car engines. Consumption by automakers accounts for more than 60 percent of global platinum demand, according to estimates by Johnson Matthey Plc, which makes about one-third of the world's auto catalysts."
A question.How difficult is in now to buy silver and silver coins in the north america?
Are most of the dealers still short of stock?
Good points Silver and HJ.
GORO is still very underknown.
Just a small coterie of buyers and firm shareholders.
It takes very few shares to dent the share price of TRGD.Not many buyers currently,not a lot of shares trading.
I think back to a certain personality in the mining world and a few stocks he took stakes in.Looking at the charts,the share prices dropped,conveniently,just before he took his placements.
For all opinions re shorts and such,I like TRGD's fundamentals.That is why I remain.