Sam stagflation is what we had in the 1970s-1980s,till Paul Volker came on the scene.During 6/8 last recessions,prices rose.
This time,things could be somewhat different (patterns are often similar but not identical)in that quite a large part of the world has USA paper money 'relative insulation'.The oil exporters,much of asia too.That is relavent as in the Arab world,there are gigantic infrastructural projects demanding commodities.Huge new cities and a monster new Disneyland,need hard commodities.Then bring in China-massive unprecedented infrastructural spending by the govt.They have planned 50 new cities,averaging 10 million people.You cannot rebuild more than all the USA cities,without concrete,steel,copper,lead,aluminium....The chinese are spending 200 billion alone,on new power plants!Again,a trillion of so USA paper dollars already banked, to pay for it.
Consider too,while a western world depression would affect all,the asian world is a saver world.They do have the ability to live on accumulated 'fat' for quite some time as they can encourage spending internally,a la Korea 1998.That and the fact much of asia has relatively reduced its reliance on the green paper kingdom.
Sam,large increases in living standards for 3 billion plus people has never happened before.The relative commodity shortage is a new one, as the potential demand is literally impossible to supply,if one logically sustains the patterns of the last 10 years.
AI
