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EZEN breakout +.17 to 2.04
Earned .13 excluding a tax benefit in 2004 and guided for .23 in 2005. Renewed microsoft license and reported record orders for the beginning of 2005. This rapidly growing Israeli software company could gain more attention with the likes of ELTK, also based in Israel, soaring on huge volume.
ERS should have a solid quarter. Q4 results are due out this week. Stock is now trading around $4.50 versus EPS of .14 in Q3 and .36 through 9 months. Easy comparison for Q4 with .08 last year. Aluminum prices were significantly higher in Q4 than Q3 and continue to make new record highs which should boost their gross margins. Stock will hopefully soon exceed its 52wk high of 5.
ACSEF is another Israeli company that had a big spike up last week on huge volume, but then gave most of the gains back. It could spike again, especially since it's fallen most of the way back and looks cheap compared to ELTK ....
EGY -.20 to 3.70
I'm surprised to see it trade this low after the successful placement of the 1818 Fund shares. It looks like it may retest the December and January lows of 3.60, but I doubt it goes much lower ...
SEMI down 1.00 to 4.90
Disappointing Q4 results of .05 and weak forward guidance ...
MIAMI--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 28, 2005-- All American Semiconductor, Inc. (Nasdaq:SEMI - News), a leading distributor of electronic components, today announced its results for the year and quarter ended December 31, 2004.
Net sales for the year ended December 31, 2004 were $409.4 million, up 31% from net sales of $311.5 million for 2003. Income from operations was $8.2 million for 2004, compared to $3.6 million for 2003. Net income was $3.2 million or $.78 per share (diluted) for 2004, compared to $546,000 or $.14 per share (diluted) for 2003. Net income for 2004 includes other income of $1.1 million on a pre-tax basis ($627,000 on an after-tax basis or $.15 per share (diluted)) as a result of our prevailing in a contract litigation.
Net sales for the fourth quarter of 2004 increased 16% to $100.5 million, from $86.9 million for the same period of 2003. Income from operations was $1.4 million for the fourth quarter of 2004, up from $1.2 million for the fourth quarter of 2003. Net income was $203,000 or $.05 per share (diluted) for the fourth quarter of 2004, compared to net income of $245,000 or $.06 per share (diluted) for the same period of 2003. The decline in net income reflects an increase in interest expense of $295,000 on a pre-tax basis ($167,000 on an after-tax basis or $.04 per share (diluted)). The increase in interest expense resulted from an increase in the Company's average outstanding borrowings during the fourth quarter of 2004 compared to the same period of 2003.
Bruce M. Goldberg, President and Chief Executive Officer of All American, stated, "During 2004 we grew our sales by more than 31% and further expanded our presence overseas where we continue to see opportunities for growth. In the second half of 2004 industry conditions began to soften. Based on current market conditions and our sales results thus far in 2005, we expect that softness may continue through part of 2005."
New Home Sales still booming -
Meanwhile, new-home sales in February soared by 9.4 percent -- the biggest increase since December 2000-- as still-attractive mortgage rates lured buyers, the Commerce Department said in a separate report.
The over-the-month increase boosted sales of new homes to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.2 million. Sales posted solid gains in all parts of the country in February. The pickup comes after sales dropped by 8.6 percent in January as bad weather kept house hunters and prospective buyers indoors.
Home sales, which posted record highs last year, are expected to slow this year as mortgage rates move higher. Still, analysts believe the housing market should remain in good shape.
The median sales price of a new home -- where half sell for more and half sell for less -- rose to a record high of $230,700 in February.
hweb: GMAI
I'm astounded that GMAI continues to lanquish even after that very positive update from Management. However there are plenty of skeptics as evidenced by a substantial short interest equal to about 36% of the float. But the short interest hasn't risen since November, and some strong Q3 and Q4 results could trigger some short covering. And the Company is truely international now, so I they're less vulnerable to a domestic slowdown in the auction business. I bought a bunch more around 10 .... hopefully we're near the bottom.
MSGI: AHOM
The EPS was impressive, but of course the balance sheet is rather depressive. $250M of long term debt, but at least it's at fixed interest rates or they'd be in serious trouble. The debt dwarfs their net income of $13M for the year, and amounts to about $15 of debt per share. Huge negative shareholder equity if you exclude the 'goodwill' on the balance sheet.
What will happen in a few years when the debt comes due ? Who knows ? But investors will be fixated on the EPS, imo, and a refinancing is a long ways off ... so I picked up a few shares this morning. Bobwins had an interesting post about pressures on profits they'll face this year, but they sure know how to cut expenses. The stock could run higher if they can keep up their margins ...
TCHC raises guidance
Of course their guidance assumes no more hurricanes in Florida this year where they do most of their homeowner's insurance business. Higher rates are helping them .... stock up 1.25 to 14.20 on EPS guidance of 2.80 for 2005 ... forward PE of 5.
hweb: ACSEF
Impressive breakout. I'm selling shares gradually into the strength. Sold at 6.20, 6.40, 6.65 and waiting on 6.90. Hope it goes much higher, as I still have the bulk of my shares. Now one of the top percentage gainers on the Nasdaq and could attract more low float traders. Also an Israeli Company, just like ELTK .... but ACSEF seems a much better value though I'm hoping it looks expensive by later today. Maybe the Israeli stocks are attracting investor interest ....
Bobwins: IMPL
I see the bid/ask at 6.68/7.20 with no volume so far today. Translated to IPII, pre-split, that's the equivilant of 1.67/1.80 versus yesterday's close of 1.77.
NASDAQ closed under 2000
Today's 1989 close also marks a break under the 200 day moving average for the first time since October. It will be interesting if the market can quickly recover ... or head still lower. Perhaps just a trading range, pending first quarter earnings which start getting reported in just 3 weeks ...
OT: Markets are closed this Friday for the holiday.
http://www.nyse.com/Frameset.html?displayPage=/about/1022963613686.html
hweb: TPPP
The stock sure looks cheap, but I've been burned by this one before. In 2003 they also had a strong 4th quarter, only to be followed by a loss in Q1, breakeven in Q2, and a huge loss in Q3 partly due to a large restructuring charge. So Q4 may just be year-end window dressing. The year as a whole was not so great. Hopefully they've turned the corner this time, but the jury is still out ... if they do post some decent results for Q1, then the stock should quickly go over $1.
CHAR +.29 to 2.54 new 52wk high
Looks like this undervalued oil microcap is finally getting discovered. A new 52wk high on 5x daily average volume. Impressive EPS of .09 in Q3, and should get much stronger in Q4 and going forward based on increasing production and much higher oil prices. Huge reserves in Kazakhstan. Seems well positioned for a listing upgrade later this year. Q4 results due out on 3/31.
TMY another Kazakhstan oil play has been flying since the move to the AMEX yesterday, but I've taken profits in that stock. CHAR looks like a super bargain by comparison.
stock_peeker: GFCI
I picked up a few more shares at .35 ... I don't believe a thing the Company is saying, but maybe by some miracle a small part of their story is true. But it's a trading vehicle for many and I wouldn't be surprised to see it zoom at some point in the next few months, perhaps on another earnings PR. Strictly gambling money, though, but the huge volume suggests a possible bottom.
IPII to start trading as IMPL tomorrow
POMPANO BEACH, Fla., March 22 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Imperial Industries, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: IPII - News) announced today that a reverse stock split of the Company's common stock at a ratio of one-for-four will now become effective after the close of business on March 22, 2005, rather than March 18, 2005 as previously announced. The delay is due to a miscommunication from the Company to The Nasdaq Stock Market.
The Company's common stock after the reverse stock split will continue to trade on the OTC Bulletin Board adjusted for the reverse split on Wednesday March 23, 2005 under the new trading symbol IMPL.
hweb: great call on ELTK ... I saw your earlier post but unfortunately didn't buy any shares ... it suddenly surged at 10:30am, and is now up 40% in 40 minutes on huge volume of 1.7M. WOW, that's 100x average daily volume already !
mikeo56: IPII
The reverse split was the only thing I asked about and our conversation lasted perhaps 30 seconds. They should be out with 4th quarter earnings on or slightly before 3/31 according to what they told me a few weeks ago.
IPII reverse split update
I just spoke their CFO ... the reverse split got delayed due to some paperwork issues, but he thinks it will happen tomorrow. They are awaiting confirmation from the OTCBB and hope to put out a press release later today once the new split date is definite ... it should be tomorrow, or very soon thereafter.
ZONS 8K filing - reduced 2005 expenses
Stock is now down near $3 after a nice turnaround year in 2004 with EPS of $0.32 versus $0.11 in 2003 ... 8K filing is good news for another year of lowered Sarbanes Oxley expenses ...
On March 2, 2005, the Securities and Exchange Commission further extended the compliance dates for Section 404 of the Sarbanes Oxley Act of 2002 for non-accelerated and foreign filers. The Company, being a non-accelerated filer, now has an additional year to comply with the internal control over financial reporting requirements. In the Company’s annual filing on Form 10K dated March 4, 2005, the Company estimated spending $400,000 to $600,000 during 2005 on the implementation of Section 404. The deferral could significantly decrease these estimated 2005 expenses.
hweb: DTRX
Stock closed at 3.75, up an impressive 68% on the day. But I don't think that makes investors who bought at the day's high of 9.50 very happy ! Certainly a huge pullback from the high, on relatively thin volume of 16k. The stock does zero volume on most days, but maybe it's starting to get discovered. It's on my watchlist for now ...
GFCI now at .38
LOL, I guess the Company is waiting for lower prices before they kick in their newly announced share buyback program ...
GMAI gives strong guidance
I picked up a few more shares this morning. The stock has been weak, and it seems to be unjustified based on the Company's update this morning. Looks like fully taxed and diluted EPS could approach $1.40 for their June fiscal year. Stock is trading at around $10.
WEST CALDWELL, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 21, 2005-- Greg Manning Auctions, Inc. (Nasdaq: GMAI - News) announced today its recent Bowers & Merena coin auction, held as the official exhibition auctioneer at the Baltimore Coin and Currency Show on March 10-11, 2005, realized total sales of $4.7 million. The Company's worldwide stamp auctions have also produced strong results, with an H.R Harmer auction posting $2.4 in sales on February 22-24, 2005.
In Europe, Kohler Auctions of Wiesbaden and Berlin realized $3.5 million between their January and March 2005 auctions, and Corinphila Auctions of Zurich, Switzerland conducted a single-owner auction that realized $1.1 million on January 15, 2005.
The Company's recently acquired John Bull Stamp Auctions in Hong Kong will hold its first sale under GMAI ownership on April 8-9, 2005. This inaugural auction, comprised of 1,630 lots, is expected to realize sales of more than $1 million, including a single-owner auction of the renowned Edward M. Gilbert Hong Kong collection. This auction is expected to be the strongest in John Bull's rich 30-year history.
Laurence Gibson, Managing Director of John Bull, also announced that Ian Hui has joined the firm and will manage the day-to-day operations in Hong Kong. Mr. Hui has more than 10 years experience in the auction field, with a strong background in Asian philately. Mr. Gibson stated, "We are extremely pleased that Ian has joined GMAI to manage our office in Hong Kong. Having spent many years in the business in Hong Kong, as well as the United States, Ian maintains strong relationships with collectors and dealers of Asian philately. He is well qualified to continue the superb tradition of customer service that is a hallmark of our company."
On April 7-9, 2005, Bowers & Merena will be the official auctioneer at an exhibition sponsored by the American Numismatic Association in Kansas City, MO. This auction is expected to realize sales in excess of $5 million. Greg Manning Auctions' quarterly sales of collections and dealers' inventories will include a seven-figure auction in June, following a March 19, 2005 sale that realized well over $2 million. In addition, Kohler Auctions in Germany and Corinphila in Switzerland have significant multi-million dollar auctions scheduled in May and June. In the U.S., a large 5,000+ lot Ivy & Manning stamp auction will be held on May 17-20, 2005. Nutmeg Stamp Sales have been offering more than 14,000 lots per month and are currently preparing a single-state revenue stamp auction comprised of more than 10,000 lots to be offered in June 2005.
Greg Manning, First Vice Chairman, CEO and President, commented, "Our fiscal third and fourth quarter activity is, as anticipated, extremely robust in both of our core competencies, coins and stamps, reflecting the strength of our overall business as well as the global marketplace. In addition to our live auctions, Internet-based coin auctions at Teletrade have continued their successful schedule of three auctions per week, with up to 1,000 lots per auction. Based on our recent and upcoming events, Greg Manning Auctions is well positioned for strong future growth. Our challenge today, which we are meeting successfully, is not selling material, but rather finding enough to satisfy the unprecedented demand for quality individual coins and stamps, as well as collections."
Bobwins: TGB
Thanks for your input. I bought some more shares this morning at 1.19. It looks like we're at or near the bottom with significant support around this level. Volume is strong today, and I think the stock will be showing some nice gains between now and mid-May when they report fiscal Q2 results. Copper prices have risen higher than most expected and the record molybdenum prices are like icing on the cake !
2morrowsGains: STV
I've been in and out of this stock for several years and it's been a big winner for me, even with some disappointments along the way. Last year's Q4 was a big disappointment and caused the stock to tank, but will make for an easy comparison. But the year over year comparison will be weak. I think that's pretty much expected. I'm glad they're holding their first ever conference call, and will hopefully be giving some strong forward guidance. That's what's been driving the stock higher lately, imho. We know the backlog is huge and growing, but in the construction business, cost overruns are common and gross margins are what determine the bottom line. I've taken some profits in the mid 7's, but am holding most of my shares through the earnings report next week. 2005 could be a banner year and will hopefully well exceed the EPS of $0.84 reported in 2003.
larrybaz: SVLF
The financials are complex with lots of debt, but TBV of around $2.50 and trading at $1.50 ... timeshares are gaining popularity and with a trailing PE of just 4, I think it's an excellent speculative buy. I've been in it for several months and tripled my position this morning, but still under 1% of my portfolio. Too risky for a sizable position, but I sure want a small piece of the action !
SVLF posts solid earnings
EPS of $0.11 for Q4 and $0.35 for the year versus a stock price of $1.40, for a trailing PE of 4. Silverleaf Resorts owns and operates 13 timeshare resorts. TBV is over $2.50 per share, but beware of the large amount of debt and leverage in the balance sheet, though common in this type of business …
DALLAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 18, 2005--Silverleaf Resorts, Inc. (OTC:SVLF - News) today announced its financial results for the quarter and year ended Dec. 31, 2004.
Total revenue for 2004 increased 9.5% to $183.7 million from $167.7 million in 2003. Vacation interval sales increased $14.5 million, or 11.7% over 2003. For 2004, net income was approximately $13.8 million, or $0.35 per diluted share, on approximately 39 million weighted average common and common equivalent shares outstanding. For 2003, Silverleaf reported a net loss of approximately $13.9 million, or $0.38 per diluted share, primarily as a result of a $28.7 million first quarter 2003 increase to the Company's provision for uncollectible notes.
For the quarter ended Dec. 31, 2004, total revenue was $45.3 million, an increase of $6.2 million from the same period in 2003. Net income for the quarter was $4.3 million, or $0.11 per diluted share, compared to net income of $907,000, or $0.02 per diluted share, for the same period in 2003.
Based in Dallas, Silverleaf Resorts, Inc. currently owns and operates 13 timeshare resorts in various stages of development. Silverleaf Resorts offer a wide array of country club-like amenities, such as golf, swimming, horseback riding, boating, and many organized activities for children and adults.
lentinman: thanks for your analysis. I expected there would be underperformance of stocks with a large number of shares outstanding, but I'm shocked by the magnitude of it, especially considering that these were stocks that you bought based on strong fundamentals. Of course it's a small sample in a relatively short time span, but nonetheless highly significant, imho. It's definitely a factor I'll be watching more closely in the future.
lentinman: large number of shares outstanding
I have no rule about not buying microcaps with a huge number of shares outstanding, however it certainly raises a red flag, and I like to fully understand the reason for the large share count and whether further dilution is likely. Overall, I won't be surprised if you find that on average these stocks underperform, but often fundamental research can weed out the losers. I'll be interested in your analysis, and as always, appreciate your time and effort.
Bobwins: TGB: what are your thoughts ?
The stock has been weak lately, but is showing strong support around $1.20. Mining startup costs were fully expensed in fiscal Q1, the December quarter, so that's out of the way. The price of copper continues to make record highs, as does molybdenum. It seems that they should be reporting impressive results for their March quarter, and going forward. I have to believe the stock will rally ahead of the mid May earnings report and/or thereafter. Or is the market fearful of a sudden dramatic drop in copper prices ? From what I've read, the price will decline, but not much until the 2nd half of the year, and even then only to levels that would still be very profitable for TGB. Is this an excellent buying opportunity ? Or are there any demons lurking ? The recent sale of stock and warrant units hasn't helped matters, but a strong Q2 should nonetheless be the catalyst for a nice rally, imho.
TGB seems a bargain at 1.25
Here are comments from the well respected 'BI RESEARCH' newsletter from their 1/12/05 issue .... and the price of copper has risen substantially since then, now at $1.54 per lb, versus around $1.40 around the newsletter date ... his EPS estimate of $0.40 to $0.50 may be a bit optimistic, but even at $0.30, the forward PE is only 4 ....
Taseko's giant, open-pit Gibraltar copper mine is now in full production with the moly circuit now restarted. It typically produces 1 million pounds of moly a year at little incremental cost. Moly, which was at $25 a pound at the time of our last issue, is now at $33 a pound. Next comes reactivating the SXEW plant, and then the new refinery… and Prosperity. Taseko's stock price has held up better relative to its high water mark of $2.30, but still is surprisingly meager relative to the $.40 a share I think it can make over the next year (PE less than 4!). The story here is also unchanged. While the exchange rate vs. the Canadian dollar has not helped here either, the differential is not as bad and the economics are very strong, especially with 1 million pounds of moly to come out of this project in the next year at almost no incremental cost. It is used as the lubricant in the molds steel is poured into so when you flip it over the steel will fall out, and steel production is through the roof largely due to the coming of age of China. However, moly prices may stay higher because the vast majority of moly comes from copper mines and other mines as a byproduct, as is the case with Gibraltar. So the only way to produce more moly is to produce more copper or whatever is the primary metal of the given mine. Thus a moly deficit is not easily corrected on the supply side. And given the way things are in China, only a recession is likely to take the steam out of demand for steel, and thus moly. One thing that will help the stock is when the Company sits down with analysts and finally gets the economics out on the table for all to see and work into their models. This is expected to happen in January. This is one of our best Buys for the year ahead. TGN could double or triple based on my belief they can earn $.40/share next year.
In fact, I selected Taseko as my top pick for 2005 for Dick Davis Digest's annual issue on that- "For 2005 I think my favorite would have to be Taseko Mines ($1.53). When copper prices were US$.61/lb. Taseko bought the giant Gibraltar copper mine for a song. Today copper is around US$1.40, and the economics of this mine, which produces about 70 million pounds of copper and a million pounds of molybdenum a year, are... substantial. At an operating cost of US$.90 - $1.00 a pound (depending on the value of the Canadian dollar), the copper earnings power of this mine is about $.25. There are about 100 million shares diluted. But that's not the only metal. Even more exciting, while everybody is watching copper, molybdenum (used in steel production) has been going up sharply from its historical level in the mid-single digits, where it was originally just a nice sweetener to the picture, to over $30/lb. recently. That works out to about $30 million in revenue with little incremental cost to operate the moly recovery circuit. So altogether Taseko could make as much as $.40-.50 a share at current prices… and it trades at $1.50 a share. Meanwhile Prudential is calling for $1.50 copper in 2005 rising to $1.75 in 2007. Moly has to come back eventually, or does it? It is almost always a secondary product of a mine primarily for copper or some other metal. You can't just open another moly mine, you have to mine more copper to get more moly... the demand side rules and China is using a lot of copper and moly. Taseko also has plans for a copper refinery to improve its operating cost by $.15 a pound, and then it will turn to activating its Prosperity gold/copper deposit. A lot to like here…"
EGY: I bought some more shares at 4.10. Downside risk at this price seems very minimal, but lots of upside potential. Clearly some shares are being flipped today, causing downward pressure, but that should quickly subside and allow an uptrend to commence, imho.
arnie70: BWLRF
Breakwater has been very disappointing, now trading at .46, only in the middle of its 52wk range of .25 to .64, even as ZINC has been making new record highs. I'm holding all my shares and will add if it goes still lower. Unfortunately I'm averaged in at .60 for a nearly 25% loss. I still believe the stock will rebound sharply at some point and that EPS of .09 is still possible for this year. See my post 6255.
EGY 1818 Fund shares successfully placed
It's good news that this huge overhang of shares has finally been placed ... hopefully we'll see an uptrend in the stock from this point on ...
HOUSTON, March 17, 2005 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- VAALCO Energy, Inc. (EGY) , announced today that the 1818 Fund II, L.P. sold 35,898,695 shares of common stock of VAALCO in a series of block trades. The Company trades on the American Stock Exchange. These shares are all of the common stock beneficially owned by the 1818 Fund II, L.P. The shares sold by the 1818 Fund II, L.P. represent approximately 63.9% of VAALCO's outstanding common stock after the trade. Following the settlement of the trades, VAALCO will have outstanding approximately 56.2 million shares of common stock, approximately 5.3 million employee options to purchase shares of common stock, and no shares of preferred stock or warrants to purchase common stock.
VAALCO does not anticipate that any person will own 10% or more of its outstanding common stock following settlement of the sale by the 1818 Fund II, L.P.
In connection with the settlement of the sale by the 1818 Fund II, L.P., Mr. Lawrence Tucker, Mr. T. Michael Long and Mr. Walter Grist will resign from the Board of Directors of VAALCO. The remaining members of VAALCO's Board of Directors intend to appoint their successors who will stand for election at VAALCO's annual shareholders meeting on June 8, 2005. VAALCO does not anticipate any other changes in its Board of Directors and executive management in connection with the sale by the 1818 Fund II, L.P
lentinman: Value Microcaps statistics
I often check the ratio you refer to ... reads/posts. It's impressive that it's generally over 100 to 1. That's another great feature here at investor's hub ... getting all those message board statistics. Number of posts is trivial, but number of 'reads' is 'insider information' that I appreciate seeing. It will be interesting if the ratio increases over time.
hweb: ETEC
Thanks for catching my mistake. I jumped to conclusions too quickly when I saw the word 'charge'. In reading the footnote more carefully, it appears that you're absolutely right, the charge to income would have occurred in an earlier period when they created the inventory reserve. Oh well, I thought I had found an extra 159k charge, but turns out it's only 16k.
Nonetheless, a very cheap stock, that seems to be getting cheaper every day. I now have double the shares I had the first time around and a move back to $2 in the next few months would be great. I just hope the selling isn't a harbinger of bad news. A 10% owner, but non-officer, sold 74k shares in January and early February, but that was with the stock at double the price it is now. There's been no selling since then. The good news is that institutions have taken an interest in the stock, with institutional ownership up 50% or 156k shares in the last quarter.
hweb: ETEC
Somebody is unloading a lot of shares, but I'm happy to be accumulating. Got filled at 1.40 and 1.35 today. I browsed the latest 10Q some more and found they also had a $159k inventory writedown in Q3. So fully taxed (35%) EPS would have been $0.066 in Q3 rather than the $0.01 reported, were it not for the 2 one-time charges. That's EPS of nearly $0.23, fully taxed and diluted, through 9 months. That's .31 annualized, for a PE of just over 4. They don't get any cheaper than this ... here's the SEC excerpt on the obsolete inventory writedown from footnote 5 of the December 10Q ....
The Company disposed of $159,000 of old and obsolete inventory during this quarter of which $143,000 was charged against the inventory reserve and the remaining $16,000 was charged to the cost of revenues.
ARSD +.17 to .58
A new 52 week high on strong volume. Earned .08 last quarter. Maybe the stock is getting attention ahead of their 10K filing. Trades on the pinks, but files with the SEC. I imagine they'll eventually be moving to the OTCBB. Looks very cheap with an impressive financial turnaround through 9mos of 2004.
otcbargains: ATVE
I bought more shares today at .19. I'm surprised to see the stock closed unchanged today, after the excellent news that the Cratos Tech. acquisition has closed. ATVE had EPS of .013 in Q3, and that gives their '05 guidance of .06 to .07 real credibility. I'll continue to accumulate on any further weakness. Management seems to be making some wise moves that will payoff quickly.