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McManus: best buying opportunity in over a year
April 18 (Bloomberg) -- Banc of America Securities LLC investment strategist Thomas McManus recommended investors increase their holdings of U.S. stocks and Treasury inflation- protected bonds.
He raised his recommended stock allocation to 60 percent from 55 percent, and increased his weighting in so-called TIPS to 15 percent from 10 percent. McManus recommended investors cut their cash allocation to 25 percent from 35 percent. The increase in his stock allocation was his first in more than two years, McManus wrote in a report distributed today by e-mail.
Recent declines, triggered by disappointing earnings from companies including International Business Machines Corp., have made stocks cheaper and dented some of the optimism among investors, he wrote. Still, his stock allocation is below average, said McManus, who is based in New York.
The decline in stocks last week ``is the best opportunity to invest in stocks in at least a year, but it pales by comparison to the opportunities we saw in late 2002 and early 2003,'' McManus wrote.
PKZ: S&P maintains positive outlook
PetroKazakhstan ratings not affected by court ruling and regulatory charges - Standard & Poor`s
/Standard & Poor`s, Moscow, April 15, 05/ -
Standard & Poor`s Ratings Services said today that the news of recent court ruling and regulatory charges will not affect its rating and outlook on Kazakhstan-based integrated oil company PetroKazakhstan Inc. (PKZ; B+/Positive/--). The ratings remain unchanged, as the freeze of PKZ`s 50% stake in Turgai Petroleum by a Kazakhstan court and various regulatory charges so far have had a limited impact on the company`s operations and financials.
Turgai is a 50:50 joint venture between PKZ and LUKoil OAO (BB/Stable/--),responsible for 24% of PKZ`s 2004 production. Standard & Poor`s believes that the conflict over Turgai and various charges reflect the risk of doing business in Kazakhstan, where tax, regulatory, and corporate governance environments are developing. Country risk is already factored in to the rating on PKZ.
PKZ`s strong financial profile and visible success in reserve replacement in 2004 could support an upgrade if the conflict over Turgai is settled without any material harm to PKZ`s business or financial profile, and as long as risks related to the local Kazakh business environment and regional politics are not viewed to materially increase for PKZ. By year-end 2004, PKZ had $243 million lease- adjusted total debt versus $199 million cash. In the worst-case scenario, if PKZ loses access to Turgai`s cash flows or has to pay high charges, the outlook may be revised to stable. Standard & Poor`s will monitor the situation very closely.
hweb: ERS
I picked up some more shares this morning at 4.29 and have another limit order waiting. Aluminum prices were very strong in Q1 which should bolster revenues and gross margins. It should be an excellent quarter with results due out in early to mid May.
Wow, RSGC down to .23, I should have dumped at the open in the high .30's. Q4 was disappointing, but the 6 month period is still impressive with huge y/y revenue growth. Maybe this selloff is overdone. Q1 will be out in a few weeks. I'm holding my shares and hoping for some profits in Q1.
hweb: GMAI
I already own a significant position and look forward to strong fiscal Q3 results in early May. The stock should rally nicely and the large short position could feed the rally with short covering. I'm not sure what downside the shorts are seeing in this one. The trailing PE is getting down near 7 and earnings should grow going forward.
lentinman: Rydex seems to offer a lot of interesting ETF's that I was unaware of. I'll have to look them over. Thanks.
lentinman: QQQQ
The QQQQ is the Nasdaq 100 ETF. Does that really have 'double beta' market volatility ? From where are you getting the beta for QQQQ ? Index PUTS on the QQQQ are somewhat more pricey than for SPY, but not too significantly.
PKZ developments late last week are certainly worrisome, but I'm holding onto my shares and call options. But I think PetroKazakhstan may have gone too far in filing suit against their joint venture partner, Lukoil, and are now facing the rath of the Russian giant. The fact that Kazakhstan is a former Soviet Republic may give Lukoil the upper hand in some respects.
Fortunately about 76% of PKZ's production is not tied in any way to Lukoil. Turgai Petroleum, the joint venture of PetroKazakhstan and Lukoil, which is at issue in their dispute, represented about 24% of PKZ's oil production in 2004 according to the annual report. It's important to keep that in mind when trying to evaluate this mess and the potential ramifications on overall production.
As for share buybacks, most notable was the 5% dutch auction buyback last summer, but additional open market purchases were made in accordance with their 4th quarter earnings press release - excerpt follows -
The Company's substantial issuer bid share tender, which ended on July 19, 2004, resulted in the repurchase and cancellation of 3,999,975 shares at C$40.00 per share.
The Company's Normal Course Issuer Bid program was renewed on August 13, 2004 and will terminate on August 12, 2005. Under the terms of this share repurchase program, the Company is able to repurchase up to 7,091,429 Class A common shares through the facilities of the TSX. In the third quarter of 2004, the Company repurchased and cancelled 1,257,500 shares at an average price of C$40.00. No repurchases were made in the fourth quarter of 2004.
At the end of the fourth quarter, the Company had 76,223,130 common shares and 2,086,656 options and convertible securities outstanding.
Additional repurchases and cancellations of 459,100 shares at an average price of C$42.62 have been executed in January 2005.
Overseas markets are weak with the Nikkie index down over 3% in early Monday morning trading. It will be interesting to see what happens on Wall Street tomorrow. I'm already looking for bargains especially in the o&g microcaps. ASPN, EGY, and KCS look especially attractive at current levels, imho. But if this recent selloff snowballs, much bigger bargains may lie around the corner. The illiquidity in many of our microcaps make them especially vulnerable to sharp drops even on light volume.
rrufff: TREK is delisting from the OTCBB but will remain a public company traded on the pink sheets. They no longer wish to file with the SEC. But management may have selfish motives and TREK's large o&g reserves could fetch a tidy profit if sold. I still own a small position, but sold about 80% of my holdings after they announced their delisting intentions. A reverse 1/100 split has been approved in a maneuver to reduce the shareholder count to a level at which a delisting to go non-reporting is legal. But hopefully they'll still issue earnings press releases. Their Q1 results should be excellent, and they'll probably still have to file a 10Q for that quarter.
lentinman: bearish forecast
Thanks for sharing your view in a more precise and mathematical manor. After all, forecasts are always subject to uncertainty, and without expressing things in a mathematical manor, a forecast cannot be properly judged. In fact a mathematician might say that a forecaster has not really made a forecast at all if the language is too couched and is itself subject to various interpretations. I'm not nearly as bearish as you are, though as I stated earlier I think the likelihood of a down market is greater than an up market at least till year end. But I've never felt that I can predict the overall market direction with sufficient certainty to allow it to significantly alter my long term strategy of remaining fully or nearly fully invested.
If I felt as confident as you about the strong downward bias of the market indices in the coming 18 months I would definitely raise cash and also put perhaps 5% or more of my portfolio in the SPY put options. If indeed you are correct and the S&P index has a 75% likelihood of falling at least a further 20% at some point over the next 18 months, then a 300% or greater gain could be realized by buying 'at the money' puts on the SPY ETF which mimicks the S&P500. At the money puts expiring in March '06 currently are quoted at about 5.4% of the index valuation, while puts out to December '06 cost about 7.6%. According to your mathematical depiction of the market's grim prospects, these PUT options offer an excellent risk/reward opportunity with perfect liquidity. Have you considered index PUTs as a means of hedging or profiting from a down market ?
cmk2735: Investorshub is great for scanning posts because it's generally very fast. I have no problem with the number of off topic posts, but frequently I don't read them. It takes only about a second to move onto the next post, or you can see them 10 at a time. Reading some of the longer ones can take a lot of time, but bypassing them just takes a second or a few seconds at the most.
Of course the most interesting and relevant posts are those that introduce or remind us of a good value microcap. When it comes to posting about a microcap some posts are more effective than others. It's always good to state or remind readers about the basic appeal of the stock - What's the price ? What's the PE ? What was EPS in the latest quarter and year ? What are the other main attractions ? A succinct summary of the type that hweb2 provides is what I like best. More detail can follow the summary as appropriate.
lentinman: How bearish are you ?
What are your forecasted lows for the market indicies this year and over the next 18 months ? What degree of confidence do you have in your predictions ? Do you exclude any probability of this being a significant bottom with an upswing the rest of the year ? With oil at $50 per barrel the PE's in the oil sector look too cheap, especially with profits increasing in the future. Isn't that a safe haven for investments ?
lentinman: Cash vs Stocks
I'm mildly bearish and am off margin, versus an average of 10%+ margin over the last many years. But I think predicting the market is very difficult and the 'experts' who go out on a limb to make precise market calls are generally proven wrong. The market timing letters tracked by Hulbert have a poor record. If I truly believed we were heading into an 18 month bear market, I would certainly take a significant cash position as well as a much bigger short position on selected stocks.
But with the Nasdaq at 1900, I certainly don't see the excesses of 5 years ago when the Nasdaq peaked at well over 5000. I'll be surprise if the Nasdaq gets anywhere near the 1100 low of October '02. If I had to make any predictions they would strongly reflect my uncertainty of how the market will play out this year and longer term. Momentum is always a factor and with the Nasdaq down over 12% so far this year, I'd probably guess that another 12% decline is likely by year end. But it's only a guess. To mathematically express my uncertainty, I'd have to say that there's a 70% of a further decline in the Nasdaq by year end, but a 30% chance of a rise. Perhaps only a 20% chance of a greater than 20% drop from 1908 where it closed Friday, and only a 10% chance of a greater than 20% rise over the remainder of the year.
So I'd rate myself mildly bearish, but with not much confidence that I can predict the market with any significant degree of certainty. As I've indicated before, I find it much easier to forecast the direction of selected stocks than of the market as a whole.
I think you're clearly right that it's very difficult to fight the overall market and make gains in a sharply down year. My portfolio suffered significant losses in both 2000 and 2002 which were very bad years for the Nasdaq. However I did gain 28% in my portfolio in 2001 with the Nasdaq down 21% that year. It was largely due to a big bet I placed on ESST, which was a leader in DVD chips, as DVD players were experiencing rapid acceptance by consumers. ESST looked like a sure bet in January 2001 at around 5 per share, and closed the year up around 300%. Some stocks do well in down markets, but there are fewer of them. But sometimes one can find obvious winners. I remember looking at ESST's PE of 5 with strong growth prospects and a healthy balance sheet with lots of cash, the stock trading at book value, and thinking it's too good to be true. Of course DVD players are going to get hot ! I made a large investment but should have bet the ranch ...
Lousy week for the markets
I'm not nearly as bearish as some here and remain fully invested, though off margin and 4% short. A major selloff Monday is possible though improbable in my opinion, though I wouldn't be surprised if the downward momentum continues a while longer. My guess is the Nasdaq goes down another 3% next week as compared with 4.56% this week .... but it's tough to predict with any significant degree of confidence.
NEW YORK, April 15 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell to 5 1/2- month lows on Friday after disappointing results from IBM heightened concern about a U.S. economic slowdown and sparked worry about the upcoming slew of corporate earnings. The Dow and S&P closed at their lowest levels since early November 2004, while the Nasdaq closed at its lowest since October 2004.
Dow Jones industrial average - For the week, the Dow was down 3.57 percent, or 373.83 points, its worst since March 2003.
Standard & Poor's 500 - For the week, the S&P fell 3.27 percent, or 38.58 points, its worst since August 2004.
Nasdaq Composite - For the week, the Nasdaq was down 4.56 percent, or 91.20 points, its worst since August 2004. Source: Reuters Station
lentinman: RSGC
We don't have long to wait for the 10K. Hopefully the pessimism has been overdone, and your purchase today will be proven as excellent contrarian timing.
hweb2: Congrats on ANTP
It's also one of my larger short positions. Unfortunately only about 4% of my portfolio is short, but it's been very profitable in this down market. But 4% is not enough to change the big picture. TZOO and TASR have gotten well deserved haircuts and it's been rewarding to be on the short side. SIMC also corrected sharply and I was lucky to find a few shares to short over 7.
But more generally the action in the other 96% of my portfolio has been depressing as of late.
sleestack76: RSGC
I've turned a nice winner into a loser with this stock ... I'm in at .53 from before the takeover announcement. It sounded scammy and I should have taking profits when the stock ran over $1. It was a quick double for me, and lentinman's rule would have worked well in this case. In fact, I should have sold it all given the shady nature of the deal. I'm pessimistic about the 10K, given the poor action in the stock and the rather suspicious takeover proposal from another highly suspect company. But I'm holding my shares and hoping for the best ....
Picked up some IMPL at 7.10
Trailing PE is now 7 and a NasdaqSC listing should happen within the next 2 weeks. Their growth initiatives should push EPS to well over $1 this year, fully taxed and diluted. The Nasdaq listing will permit a much broader investor base. But I'm eager to buy more in the 6.50 range if someone is desperate to sell ...
hweb2: ELTK
I'm watching ELTK and may buy some shares, but tending towards caution on a one quarter turnaround. Especially in the tech sector, Q4 tends to be strong followed by weakness in Q1. Also, their Q4 profits are still small relative to their losses through the prior 9 months, and some of the profits may year end 'window dressing'. But I agree the stock could zoom back over 6 if they show further sequential improvement in Q1. It will be very interesting to see the results. But the EMS sector has been weak lately with big pullbacks for midcap stocks like FLEX, as well as microcaps like SGMA and SIMC.
EGY -.18 at 3.47
Wow, I never thought it would get this low. A lot of the o&g microcaps are weak today, even with oil up and the AMEX Oil index up a small fraction. We need some good earnings reports in the next few weeks !
Another bad day
Nasdaq down over 1%, but plenty of my holdings are down over 5%. At last check, PKZ down 5.6%, IMPL down 7.8%, MUSA down 7.1%, BWLRF down 8.2%, ERS down 8.1%, MPAD down 8.6% RSGC down 8.1%, and the list goes on ... illiquidity in some of the thinly traded microcaps is definitely an issue on days like this. But of course, buying opportunities can be found by those with cash ...
PKZ testing December low of 31.35
Trailing PE is now 5 ... stock is now around 32, down from a high of 46.92 in February due to conflicts with joint venture partner Lukoil. Both companies have filed lawsuits against each other. I'm betting we're near the bottom and bought some more November call options. The calls are very active, especially the November 35's with over 640 contracts traded. It will be interesting to see how this plays out ... I'm hoping their claims cancel each other out.
Stanu78: MDF taxes
The 10K has a footnote indicating that MDF still has $18.5M in NOL's left at the end of 2004 that expire in various years. That's about $11M less than at the end of 2003. Roughly $3M was applied against 'would be' taxes in 2004, and the other $8M was accrued as a deferred tax asset on the balance sheet.
Therefore, the most likely accounting treatment would be to expense taxes against their newly created deferred tax asset on a quarterly basis, and probably in Q4 recognize a further tax credit based on expectations of future profitability. So no taxes will actually be 'paid' to Uncle Sam, but tax expense will show up and get charged against the deferred tax asset. However by year end, the expense will likely be offset by a new tax credit charged to their remaining $18.5M of NOL's.
However, there are various accounting treatments of this situation as I understand it, and it could be they will leave the deferred tax assets on the balance sheet and reduce their $18.5M of remaining NOL's on a quarterly basis. In this case no tax expense will show up on the income statement. That's evidently what the CEO implied. We'll have to wait for the Q1 earnings report to find out. The good news is that they still have plenty of NOL's.
Knowledge: GFRP
It definitely could zoom if they issue a PR and depending on how it's worded. But being OTCBB, it won't get the visibility of a listed stock. Will they be issuing a PR ?
roguedolphin: FC
The first I heard of it was when I saw the earings report this morning. I was hesitant to buy due to the seasonality factor, but nonetheless an impressive turnaround. It will be interesting to see next quarter's results. I got lucky and picked up 1k shares at 3.10 and flipped them at 4 just an hour later. Now it's back in the 3.20's ....
Knowledge: GFRP
GFRP looks interesting, but but operating income was down to 162K in 2004, from 440k in 2003 on increased expenses. Excluding the currency gains, EPS of only about .09 for the year by my calculation, and that's untaxed. So not super cheap at $1 on the ask, but down near the bid, it may be a good buy. But they need to keep expenses in line with revenue growth.
lentinman: CSTL
Excluding the tax benefit, EPS of .24 for the year with the stock at around 3, not a bargain imho. Fully taxed EPS of about .15, so arguably the stock is a bit overpriced with a PE of 20.
Marvelmeister: PKZ
I'm overweight in PKZ so I can't add, but did 'rollover' my May 35 Calls to November ... selling the May's at a loss and paying a premium for another 6 months time. The seemingly constant disturbing news is hopefully frivilous, but certainly unpleasant and not helping the stock. But the weakness in the entire energy sector has me hunting for other bargains, like KCS, which I just bought more of. Good luck with PKZ.
Bargains in the oil & gas sector
I just picked up some shares of KCS at 14.33 ... lots of bargains in the oil & gas sector. The stocks are correcting sharply as the price of oil has dropped to a mere $50 per barrel. I think oil could drop to the mid 40's, but that's still hugely profitable ... the lower these stocks go, the bigger the bargain long term, imho.
hweb: FC
I was also debating whether to buy at the open at 2.80, but was concerned about seasonality, but aware that most investors don't bother to analyse that stuff ... I delayed but then bought a 1000 at 3.10 a few minutes after the open. Now it's at 4.05. I should have bought a ton !
Knowledge: MPAD
Strange action in the stock this morning ... first it trades as high as 8.50, then crashes to 5. I picked up some shares at 6.05, and am hoping for more in the 5's. Fully taxed and diluted EPS of .19 with guidance for sequential growth in Q2. Backlog down 4% from the peak, but still huge ...
FC +1.10 to 3.40
Interesting turnaround story ... reports EPS of .19 for the quarter versus a loss a year ago. It appears to be a seasonally strong quarter, nonetheless an impressive turnaround ...
SALT LAKE CITY, April 12 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- FranklinCovey (NYSE: FC - News) reported net income before preferred stock dividends for the fiscal 2005 second quarter of $7.1 million, a $6.9 million improvement compared to $0.2 million in net income for the second quarter of fiscal 2004. The Company reported earnings of $0.19 per share (basic and diluted) after accounting for preferred stock dividends for the quarter ended February 26, 2005 compared to a $0.10 loss per share after accounting for preferred stock dividends for the second quarter of fiscal 2004. The Company also reported its tenth consecutive quarter of significant improvement in its operating results with a $6.9 million increase in operating income to $7.9 million for its second quarter ended February 26, 2005, compared to operating income of $1.0 million for the comparable quarter of the prior year. The Company's year-over-year financial results during the quarter were influenced primarily by the following: (1) a $3.8 million increase in sales (5% growth rate), with a 400 basis point gross margin improvement (60.7% compared to 56.7% for the same quarter last year) resulting in a net $5.4 million year-over-year increase in gross profit with gross margin improvement accounting for $3.1 million of the increase, (2) a $0.6 million decrease in selling, general and administrative (SG&A) costs including store closures and recapitalization expense, and (3) a $0.9 million decline in depreciation and amortization expense.
For the first two quarters of fiscal 2005, the Company reported a $11.6 million improvement in net income, with $8.6 million of earnings before preferred stock dividends ($0.16 earnings per share after preferred stock dividends) compared to a loss of $2.9 million before preferred stock dividends ($0.37 per common share loss after preferred stock dividends) for the first two quarters of fiscal 2004. The Company reported a $11.4 million improvement in operating results with operating income of $10.2 million compared to an operating loss of $1.2 million for the first two quarters of last year. The Company provided the following details underlying the continued improvement of operating and net results during the second quarter and first two quarters of fiscal 2005.
Revenues: Total sales for the second quarter of fiscal 2005 increased $3.8 million compared to last year's second quarter. Organizational Solutions Business Unit (OSBU) sales grew $6.6 million or 26% for the second quarter of fiscal 2005 to $32.0 million compared to $25.5 million for the same quarter last year. The Company's efforts to grow its domestic and international organizational training and consulting solutions over the past several quarters has led to three consecutive quarters of growth in OSBU sales. These growth initiatives have contributed to sales growth in both international and domestic revenues.
Sales from the Consumer and Small Business Unit (CSBU) for the quarter ended February 26, 2005, declined $2.7 million to $50.5 million compared to $53.2 million for the same quarter last year. Retail store sales accounted for $4.6 million of the CSBU revenue decline and were $28.1 million during the quarter compared to $32.7 million (5.4% comparable store sales decline) for the same quarter the prior year. There were 23 fewer domestic stores open during the quarter compared to the second quarter last year; these stores accounted for $3.0 million of sales in the second quarter of fiscal 2004. The retail store sales decline was primarily attributed to the smaller number of stores open in the quarter and to a 41% decline in PDA's and related products sold during the quarter this year compared to the same quarter last year. Consumer Direct sales grew 3% to $16.8 million compared to $16.3 million for the same quarter of last year. Sales of products through the wholesale channel to office superstores, increased 34% to $4.9 million compared to $3.7 million for the same quarter last year.
Selling, general and administrative expenses: SG&A costs decreased slightly by $0.6 million during the quarter, including additional costs associated with the recapitalization plan approved by shareholders, costs associated with changes in the CEO's compensation, costs associated with store closures and increased commission costs associated with increased training sales. SG&A as a percentage of sales declined as sales grew and efforts to trim expenses continued. Store closing costs are included in SG&A expense and have a one-time impact in the current period, but decrease costs going forward. The Company had 23 fewer stores open at the end of the quarter compared to the same period last year. The Company anticipates that it will close additional stores as future analysis demonstrates that operating performance may be improved through further retail store closures.
Depreciation and amortization: Depreciation and amortization expenses continued to decline during the second quarter of fiscal 2005, reflecting lower, more focused and better-managed capital expenditures and the effect of certain assets becoming fully depreciated. The Company reported a decline of $0.9 million in these expenses during the second quarter and $2.3 million during the first two quarters of fiscal 2005, compared to the respective periods of the prior year.
ZEUS a favorite of top investors at Marketocracy
Marketocracy is a website that allow members to create and manage their own mutual funds. ZEUS is in the steel sector and has a trailing PE of 3. The stock has been weak on concerns of another boom to bust cycle in the industry ....
Best increased holdings by +15% Rest decreased holdings by -20%
The Best Investors have been making money on ZEUS for over 2 years. At the beginning of Oct.'03 through Jan. 23, '04 the Best more than double their position in ZEUS as the price rose from $3.90 to $7.90. As the price jumped to $12.95 in mid-Apr. they increased their position another 51%. In Jul.'04 they started taking profits, selling 45% of their position as ZEUS hit $20.09 and then another 22% through the end of the year as ZEUS peaked at $26.51. This year the Best have been buying ZEUS again, adding 72% to their position between Jan. 1 and Mar. 11 as the price dropped to $21.95 and then another 50% as the price dropped to $17.76 on Apr. 8.
lentinman: I appreciate all your effort and hard work at keeping this forum focused on value. We all benefit by that. I certainly do. There are countless other message boards for promoting non-value stocks and this board would lose readership and merit if we allowed those types of stocks to be discussed here.
But perhaps there might be some merit in creating a few more message boards under the 'VM' banner that specialize in certain types of stocks. Value midcaps, book value plays, turnarounds, story stocks, pinks, etc. I personally think the name 'VM ZIP CODE CHANGERS', though humerous, also lacks dignity and clarity. Perhaps that's why some posters are reluctant to post there.
RRainman: TMFZ
TMFZ remains my favorite play in the mortgage sector, and I'm banking on the widely held view that mortgage rates will remain reasonable and not rise much beyond 6% by year end.
TMFZ, now trading around 2.80, earned .55 per share, fully taxed and diluted last year for a trailing PE of about 5.
EPS grew 267% in 2004 to .55 from .15 in 2003
Company is growing geographically and primarily sells mortgages into the ALT-A market niche which is less interest rate sensitive than the primary market.
Company plans to apply for a Nasdaq or AMEX listing this year as per the CEO's remarks on the most recent earnings conference call.
larrybaz: MPAD
I was impressed by the record quarterly EPS of .19, though of course it would have been nice to see the backlog also rise to a new record. Even so the book to bill was only a bit under 1, at .92 and the backlog dropped less than 4% from the record level on 11/30/04, the end of their fiscal year. Furthermore they state that the order volume is expected to rise sequentially in Q2. Any semiconductor company would be envious of a lull in order rates that only dropped the book to bill down to .92.
A few more positives -
Another record quarter, both in terms of EPS and revenue, beating a seasonally strong Q4.
EPS of .19, up 90% from .10 last year.
Gross margins up to 38.5% versus 31.7% last year.
A major customer is cutting inventory, hence the drop in orders, but that is expected to taper down in the 2nd half.
Company guidance for higher revenues, and presumably higher EPS, in the the 2nd quarter.
EPS should still approach $1 for 2005, for a forward PE of around 8. The trailing PE is now a mere 12, cheap for a Company with y/y EPS growth of 90% in the most recent quarter and 161% in the last fiscal year.
TGB: Copper price forecast remains strong
Prudential lowered their future price estimates, but they remain high for the next 4 years ... TGB looks real cheap at 1.28, if their forecast is on target ... copper hit a 16 year high yesterday.
May copper gave back 2.9 cents to end at $1.496 a pound, effectively erasing the previous session's 1.8% gain. The contract reached the richest price seen for the industrial metal in 16 years on Monday, moving to within pennies of its all-time high.
But overnight, Prudential Equity issued a research note saying the bull market in copper is likely to have run its course in 2009. Accordingly, Prudential lowered its copper price estimates for 2007-2008 to $1.50 from $1.75 a pound and for 2009-2010 to $1.08 from $1.75 a pound.
stock_peeker: ZEUS
The steel sector is being hit today, but for no obvious reason that I can find. MUSA is also down significantly and ZEUS is right around the October support level. Earnings are due out in about 2 weeks. Should be solid, though down sequentially. Steel prices have been creeping down, but more slowly in the last few months than at the end of 2004. Last week the CRUSPI steel index actually had an uptick. I'm holding my shares but not buying any more at this time ....
PDGE backlog up from Q3
Backlog up to 38.8M versus 36.6M at then end of Q3. That's impressive given the hurricane effect on Q3. Pretax income was also down only 13% from Q3 which is excellent considering that Q3 benefitted greatly from post hurricane cleanup work. Obviously the 40% tax rate impacted the bottom line, but that was expected. Looks like an excellent report.