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I forgot to agree with your point about selling some in stages.
I would sell some in stages to de risk and shore up personal finances since I’m retired, however I would keep a large portion to reap the long term hopefully generational appreciation if the company and product fundamentals support it.
I’ve had ten baggers but no 25-100 baggers, so nwbo would be a once in a lifetime investment if it delivers on the promise of a game changing treatment for terrible diseases, and that would be the best return on investment much more than financially!
I certainly wouldn’t consider $34 per share to be a terrible fate, quite the contrary. It would be my best return ever by far.
The overreaction I referred to is violent price action that might drive the share price from $1 to $30-$50 in 1-3 days, and the reality that it would be some time before a valuation of over $30billion is well supported, unless a big buyout materializes. For one thing, an approval would be a strong catalyst.
So if dcvax is efficacious as we longs believe, Nwbo/dcvax would very likely get to $30+, and ultimately $60, $100, and beyond if not taken out by another player on the way. That’s all my opinion and isn’t investment advice and I have been wrong before and right as we all have as investors.
I beg to differ, in that digging below the surface, nwbo appears to be among the most knowledgeable in the field of autologous tumor lysate dendritic cell vaccines applied to GBM, and with the treasure trove of data collected from the phase3 and other trials, and their relationship with ucla, I believe they know the science as well or better than any organization in the world.
Yes, ten years would be a reasonable expectation however well worth the wealth creation if it comes to pass.
Heck, if I can spend over 12/13 years of share price going from low single digits to over $12 to $0.14 to $2+ to $0.68 currently, it should be a lot easier watching the sp go to $5-$10 initially and then onward towards $100+ over the next 10 years, God willing!
Completely agree she’s doing the most fulfilling and beneficial work for her skills, intelligence and compassion!
I may have misunderstood your question as what I think instead of what nwbo management would consider big enough?
I think nwbo management would have to seriously consider a $34 BO offer given where the share price is, management’s ages and positions in life, and ability to scale and market the dcvax platform to full potential. However, I believe LP would not agree to a BO unless dcvax would be in good hands with strong reasons to not mishandle the technology and opportunities going forward. Too many years of concerted effort has been invested in this mission to advance cancer treatment and patient quality of life, to achieve such a breakthrough and let it get into the wrong hands.
Good point regarding harmony and balance!
$34 per share is a lot better than we’re at now, and I wouldn’t blame anyone to cash out some shares even at a third or more of that price, or even cash out completely if that provides peace of mind.
In my opinion if dcvax results look shockingly good and there is good press that whips up a feeding frenzy, there could be a short term overreaction shooting the share price to $34 or a bit more. This has happened with other stock, rising irrationally for a day or three before sanity is restored
However, if dcvax is successful as a platform technology for a number of different malignancies, the long term potential can be over $100 billion to multiples of hundreds of billions.
At today’s number of shares outstanding (let’s say a billion shares) that market cap would put the share price in the $100 - $500 per share range or maybe higher longer term. This would put nwbo in the class of biggest pharma like a Merck or larger, and years down the road if ever.
Hang in there! Our time to be vindicated is coming, imho!
I committed to holding for the duration many years ago and will not be shaken out now for sure when we are waiting on TLD!
Even if the sp surges, I might sell a small portion of shares to shore up finances, and hold the rest for the generational wealth that may well be created!
A couple of times, management of companies sold us out cheap by agreeing to be bought out at a low share price instead of holding out for true value. I don’t see LP doing that and I believe LP won’t put a successful DCVax platform into risky hands that won’t develop the platform.
Go big or go home!
Hopefully we are truly close now! Thought we were there at least a couple or three times before.
I was fully convinced we were getting TLD by the SNO conference when LL was to deliver a presentation, and she canceled.
Stopped guessing after that and just biding my time until it’s finally announced.
Takes a lot of conviction and patience to wait with a large number of shares, especially as many as you’re holding.
Maybe tomorrow morning is it. One of these mornings will be!
We might be able to come to a workable arrangement, especially if you can help me re-learn golf, having not played for 40 years. I’m building on a golf course lot.
Hope I don’t wind up trying to rid the place of gophers like Bill Murray in Caddyshack!
Your wife sounds like she could be my wife’s long lost sister!
I feel your pain, also being reminded that I didn’t listen to her to sell when the sp shot up to over $2 the last time.
Also, I recently (last summer) sold our beautiful two story townhouse condo in South Florida because carrying costs became too high, which she didn’t want to give up. Now about 9 months later it’s worth 20% more and shooting higher each month with the craziness in Florida real estate.
So, you’re getting it for not selling nwbo to buy the beautiful townhouse, and I’m getting it for selling the beautiful townhouse instead of my nwbo shares!
I’m about to start building my dream home in Georgia ( we’re upsizing instead of downsizing in retirement) and the estimated cost keeps going up, so it would be quite timely if our nwbo investment comes in soon.
I don’t want to think about how much daily ridiculing and I told you so torture would result if nwbo is a bust!!!
Suffice it to say, Ohhhh, the humanity
All kidding aside it’s obviously much more important for all of us that dcvax succeeds in the battle against the scourge of cancer! We’ve all watched our love ones suffer and lost them too soon!
Spoken like a true Gordon Gecko!
The American Greed story could be the cabal of shorts, market makers, and the assorted payed to play characters!
It could end with AF schooling students of yellow journalism, prompting them one by one to “denigrate this pen!”
Yes, I tend to agree with your thoughts regarding LL not playing herself, and your alternative casting!
My wife hasn’t started denying that she knows me, however she regularly ridicules me as the guy who still thinks nwbo stock will rise, and who believes that they’ll finally unearth the treasure at Oak Island.
I have to admit, I’ve been watching the Curse of Oak Island for years and having just watched this week’s episode, it does feel more and more like the nwbo/dcvax journey!!!
Both journeys include years of unearthing breadcrumb clues and applying science and logic to reinforce what we believe and hope to be successful conclusions ultimately.
And both continue to provide enough “carrots” just what we are convinced to be a few steps ahead of us, such that we keep plodding along. Hmmm jackass comes to mind
Yet, call me what you may, I do still believe dcvax is efficacious enough to result in a new SOC and more, and that Rick and Marty will find some kind of treasure at Oak Island!
Would be nice to get some more Bobby dazzlers along the way!
Yes, Giamatti is one of my favorites and if anyone can reach deep and dark to play AF, he can!
The cast is coming together well and worthy of a blockbuster!!
Thank you for confirming the benefits of dcvax and the combo path extension.
Excellent casting!
I’ve been half kidding about doing the nwbo screen play and movie for years. Casting suggestions (subject to change):
LP - Meryl Streep
LG - Larry David
LL - as herself
Very interesting indeed!
Nwbo/dcvax appears to be in alignment with several dimensions of the oncology space that is emerging. Trial design, immunotherapy/personalized medicine, and business collaboration/M&A in pharma.
Coinkidink, I don’t think so
I hear you Pedes!
Linda L has stated that dc vaccine isn’t a cure for everyone (for some lucky souls it is) however everyone is living longer.
For GBM living longer is a big improvement over the SOC, even if it’s a few months longer, and I believe I remember 4 months of prolonged survival (or was it pfs?) is success for the dcvax-l phase3 trial.
So the dcvax-l trial can be successful if it prolongs most treated participants and effectively cures a subset.
Then the further improvements coming from combination treatments should improve survival further and cure more patients, and a broader cure combination may emerge. Probably different combinations for treating different types of malignancies may emerge.
Senti, iwasadiver, flipper, Gary, PM, ATLinsider, M, and others, do you agree with the above?
Oh I get it, 4-1-1 for information!!!
I have a magnum of champagne I’ve been saving and I’d love to pop it next week, especially if the sp gets anywhere near $9.00 !!!
Will this dream become a reality at long last?
We are often on different sides of postings, however thanks for the detailed response and your skill at communicating this information abstraction.
Now if you’d use your powers only for good
Would Advent be using equipment/subsystems that nwbo paid for at Sawston? Is the lease payment the only consideration documented?
Every time I drive past L&B in the last 10 years I’m always rushing to something and couldn’t stop to enjoy and reminisce
All true statements from Advent as far as I can see, however they are not counter to nwbo benefiting. I would also think that nwbo shares in the revenues produced in the Sawston facility in some way. Yes, I understand LP probably gains in multiple ways, so more power to Powers!
Sorry there’s a missing word. Should have been I do NOT think it matters re our investment.
Wiser words have never been spoken, always wash your tomatoes
I think it is the other way around, in that nwbo licensed or has agreement from UCLA to commercialize dcvax, however I do think it matters much for our investment.
Fuggeddaboudit !!! Geet ouda heere!
Mickey Blue Eyes, from Detroit — funny movie!
NJ sure has a lot of Italian restaurants per square mile, many decent to very good, but our homemade tomato sauce made from the (NJ) tomatoes our family jars each year is unbeatable.
Then again NJ has lots of all kinds of restaurants too! It’s a hard state to lose weight in!
Surprisingly, I found the Alpharetta Georgia area to have excellent restaurants of all types. I have yet to have anything other than a great meal there in three trips, however I’m sure I’m being brought to the better establishments most of the time. To my taste buds it seems like the ingredients are fresher or better than in NJ.
I’ve had excellent pizza in Georgia and NJ but the best overall pizza experience was at L&B Spumoni Gardens in my old Brooklyn neighborhood during my youth and young adulthood. I still get their spumoni ice , available at a local NJ pizza shop.
Time for a midnight snack!
I was born in Sicily actually and immigrated along with my Sicilian parents when I was 18 months, by ocean liner.
I’ve had a lot of cannoli in my life, usually after a lot of lasagna, and now I’m hungry!
Geee wizzz for once and for all can we bury this particular recurring item?
The vaccine is dcvax, period, exclamation point, and RIP!
PM, get used to the sound of a new handle, Rich Man!
Park Avenue benches, here we come!
Thanks for the detailed explanation M, appreciate it!
Absolutely, leave the gun, take the cannoli !
Just had my nightly doppio espresso, it would have been nice with a little sfogliatella or tiramisu, and cannoli is always a treat!
Buona sera
As well as illegal dumping of waste, you know, fuggeddaboudit !
Sounds to me like approximately 50 long term survivors total including from phase 3 trial and other, not just from the phase3 trial.
The specific example described isn’t dcvax per se, because he describes using the tumor genetic sequencing data to create the vaccine instead of using tumor lysate to convey to the partially matured dendritic cells the complete tumor cells components that the vaccinated immune system will target.
Same overall principle but different vaccine prep and targeting approaches. We know that dcvax is broader in targeting the tumor while the example in the Gates excerpt targets a finite set in practice and is difficult to keep increasing the set.
Dcvax production approach is not more difficult in priming the immune system against any and all tumor components, which is an advantage in fighting the tumor and in manufacturing the personalized vaccine for the specific tumor makeup!