is... a buy and hold investor of dividend US and Canadian stocks
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
one of these articles mentions RIM (Research In Motion).. as a former cult stock. Not so bad, eh?
Fanny has made a similar post, but I must emphasize that I am not Fanny. I am in Toronto, Canada. I have even posted my real name. I am simply a past investor in uWink that made some dough. Hence I like to follow it and provide information, usually from my technical experience and sometimes from my trading experience, that is helpful.
I post to educate myself, try to help others, and learn. That is it. I don't have an axe to grind. uWInk is at a price point now where for those that are long getting out really does not have any great benefit, so if you want to stay in, you can't be blamed. But, in the past I have used the ST trading strategies descirbed and been glad I did it afterwards, so I always mean what I say and think it is good advice. If uWink does well, I will not be bitter at all, in fact I will be happy for all. I have already made my money.
Lastly, I am not very good at lying or being devious. If I am it is all in fun. I would not be able to post with another alias because of that. I even tried just a little while ago and was caught immediately, so don't worry about it. I did not know it was against the rules. Now I know.
if we "knew" Brian, we would all be millionaires. What is it you think you"know" about uWInkand where has it gotten you so far?
At least we have the courage to form an opinion, act on it, and walk away with something.
I think that a share like uWink will be slowly sold off over time because of the financial condition of the company, not moving with the swings in the market. As an OTC stock I can see how this would happen. Traded by humans, orders faxed in etc. The last real dump was after earnings, and it took several days to occur. This would not happen if it were electronically traded.
Also, it seems to move in a preset trading range for periods of time, then abrubtly drop. One can observe this by looking at the Money Flow Indicator, which accurately plots the flow of money out of the stock and predicts an impending drop.
Just my .02.
I don't know much about how the MM work though.
btw panzer there is usually some reason why the market does what it does, it is just not always obvious. If there is no reason for a downward chart like uWink's, the problem is usually financial. It is just not obvious until hindsight. I got fooled as well.
and we got the head of IR saying everything is fine.. some basic math gives reason to doubt.. obviously Dennis thought everything was fine at .85, that is all.
well I guess it is not really that funny, especially when companies like Nortel go from $120/share to .25/share (pre-R/S) as it is now.... it is just beyond belief.
anyway I am not trying to beat up the company just trying to predict what is going to happen because I am interested that is all.
At least PKG has rules. Everybody has rules and we all break them, because we are all human.
My point? First of all, to be funny. We (most of us) live in the USA, a country that allows open criticism of it's head of state. How many times have I seen Bush ridiculed on Saturday Night Live? or elsewhere.. what was that movie that that guy made... does this represent what people really think? Of course not. He is a very smart man. It is a credit to your country that that movie even got made.
Anyway, it similarly allows a noname guy like me to poke fun at a senior officer of a publicly-traded company, although I do not like the personal aspect. Never met the woman.. so I don't know her and perhaps should stay away from poking fun at her. Probably a very nice lady.
But, there is a serious interpretation that is useful. She is the head of IR. Now, my skeptical, devious mind tells me that this is like a VP of BS, merely toting the company line and quoting a bunch of BS from company financial statements and MD&A to those who call. What else can she do? Serious questions would go direct to the CFO. Hence my prediction that he will parachute from uWink Air. Serious questions answered off the record and honestly would not result in an answer in print anywhere. It may result in a Sell order...
But if that is the case, you would think that Dennis would not make the mistake of buying at .85 when it goes quite a bit lower. Think about it.. it is kind of funny.
So it is really how you look at it. In this US of A, might I suggest that we take such postings as all in fun?
are you "viable".. is that like "spongeworthy"?
"viable posting history"? ROFLMAO.. just what is viable and what not?
forget it, after all you are a "lurker".. hehehehhe lolololol... ol.
Catch this definition:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cult_stock.asp
Cult Stock
What does it Mean? A classification describing stocks that have a sizable investor following, despite the fact that the underlying company has somewhat insignificant fundamentals. Typically, investors are initially attracted to the company's potential and accumulate positions in speculation that its potential will be fulfilled, providing the investors with a substantial payout.
Investopedia Says... While most of these cult stocks promise they will be the next big story after they make a new discovery or get the newest contract from the government, most do not provide investors with anything other than the story. Furthermore, these stocks typically generate very little, if any, revenue at all.
For example, many micro-cap biotech stocks are cult stocks. While they promise that they are going to be working on a miracle compound or drug, most of them do not have any source of income as they slowly burn away their initial capital in research and development.
However, some cult stocks do occasionally make good on their stories to become successful. For example, Research in Motion was once a widely followed cult stock that had a great story that attracted many investors, but no revenue. Fortunately, its BlackBerry PDA device became a runaway hit, which elevated the cult stock to its multibillion market capitalization status.
also entertaining:
http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/5/apple_stock_cult_threatens_sai
and:
http://www.forbes.com/investoreducation/2007/05/21/rimm-goldcorp-guess-pf-education-in_jo_0521investopedia_inl.html
so the question is:
Will uWink "make good"?
ok let's have some real discussion. You have me going now. I just looked at the web site again. They seem to have removed the 1.6 M figure I just quoted. Can't find it.
I also can't find a price or any hint at a pricing scheme on the Tech page. That stands to reason. I can't see them publishing prices here. This is not tiddlywinks. They would keep the price list closely protected. I have seen one once. At Baan. A list of packages with associated technology and components. Nothing to do with development cost and not even related to the components themselves. Completely driven by value/ functionality to the customer. Guessing:
- central database/ registry 1-5k
- self-service ordering and self payment (POS). Major application.
- digital entertainment (game library). Another major application, completely independent from the POS system.
- branding/ promotion/ advertising. I could see them offering this for free. The sponsors that advertise pay for it, like any media site. In saying that, I am not sure whose content or brand they are trying to promote: the customer's or a paying advertiser that is not the customer.
- table, screen, and content display tool. This is a common application, in fact there is tons of that stuff around.
QSR looks like something that is not an enterprise system that you could just order. They would have a price list for that.
So here is my take on how uWink would market these applications:
They would basically have two major applications for sale: POS and gaming. Each customer would have to buy the central registry or database as a base component and then select one or both of those two major applications. Customers may already have a POS system.. that is a common application, which makes the gaming a major draw. The major selling feature. A new restaurant would be a great sale, because they would have nothing.
The branding/ promotion/ advertising I may throw in for free but I am not sure who is paying the tab. If the people sponsoring the media are paying for the advertising it could be free to the uWink customer, which makes it a great sweetener in a deal. This is the way any great web site works (Google). It is free to users, the advertisers are paying the freight. Make sense?
The content display tool would be for a nominal fee. This would be a throw-in. Quite frankly that software is very common and the main reason for buying would be if you wanted a completely uWink restaurant. For instance, there is a package in Toronto here called Silverware. See it in restaurants all the time.
The QSR is I believe intended for a quick turnkey sale. No training, support.
The only other thing on the Product page is the Hardware/ Architecture page, which just is a selling point.
So we are looking at a POS/ Gaming sale with Gaming as the strong selling point, the differentiator... with supporting applications and a nice media package thrown in for free that generates tons of revenue. Make sense?
I am not surprised the franchising details are no longer there, as they chose not to emphasize it. But, If someone wanted to spend 1.6M I would guess they would still entertain that. They did not rule it out. I am sure that figure was there on the old page.
One other observation on your post is that we are no longer talking about banking institutions having to lend to restaurant operators or franchisees. We are talking about Corporate IT spending. This has been hurt by the economy as well, but it is a different mechanism.
The figure that uWink has on it's web site right now for the capital needed for a franchise is 1.6M. I have it from a friend that used to be an accountant at O'Tooles that a figure of 300-400k is more realistic for a franchise. that leaves the reality that 1-1.2M is for technology, or the licensing portion of the investment. that would be for the whole works (all applications).
The new reality is that they will likely offer the pieces of the whole separately, which will allow it to fit available budgets easier. Various packages could go for 100k and up, depending on what the customer wanted. They may already have a POS system and just want gaming, etc.
I am not too intimate with the corporate spending cycle, but I would guess that budgets this year are under pressure. There may be some dribs and drabs, but anything big would not happen until early next year, when new budgets become available. I would think that budgets are confirmed in January and maybe some announcements would be possible as early as February. Once again, I am just guessing,as I do not have extensive sales experience.
Personally, I think that is too late for the company to be financially comfortable in it's current form. We will see.
well, that is all I have for today. EOM.
What about YOU buying the company Raw? After all, you could afford it.. that would be great! You could be the new president, CEO, and any other title you feel like.
We could fire Nolan and then hire him back as a consultant. Give his son a job in his current role, as he seems like a good bloke. The rest of the current staff, let them go as they are "boffins".
boffin - Wikipedia
In the slang of the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa, boffins are scientists, engineers, and other people who are stereotypically seen as engaged in technical or scientific research. The word conjures up an image of men in thick spectacles and white lab coats, obsessively working with complicated apparatus. Portrayals of boffins emphasize both their eccentric genius and their naive ineptitude in social interaction. They are, in that respect, closer to the "absent-minded professor" stereotype than to the classic mad scientist. Alec Guinness's character in the film The Man in the White Suit (1951) is a classic example of an eccentric and obsessed boffin.
We could hire Robert Moss as the Finance guy. If we don't, he will buy uWink from us anyway.
I could be the VP Sales and Transportation. In addition to hiring the Inside Sales team, I will be responsible for keeping the company cars fully gassed and driving them when necessary. The other thing I will enjoy doing is attending all the parties and walking around with fancy suits while making great promises about all the sales I have in my Sales Funnel.
We will have to work our of your house for awhile. The development team (all 4 of them) we will put up in your garage. We will tell them that it will be good to get back to "the good old days". The only issue I foresee is that there may be vapor clouds present around your house for some time. I can supply vapor detectors around the premises in order to warn us and to make sure no one is overcome. What we will do is feed the development team an endless supply of pizza until the Vapors go away. Should only take a few months.
Ever considered this? Let's see, Dennis Nino bought a bunch of shares at .85. I seem to remember a statement from him.. "there is nowhere to go but up" or something. Well... he is related to Nancy Nino.. brother.. who is married to .. ?
Now we had a statement from Nancy Nino about cash flow.. and 12 months.. uWink had enough cash to last 12 months.
So if Dennis bought at .85 and was so completely wrong, and obviously gets scoop from Nancy...
WHAT POSSIBLY CAN NANCY NINO KNOW?
lol
Interesting viewpoint "take off or go to a big zero". And unique to this (the software) business. Representative of the challenges all investors face in this sector when looking for a product-oriented company to invest in.
The basic problem is that uWInk must make an investment up front in order to hope for a return down the road. This is extremely risky. Many technology companies prefer to simply rent out there people (do consulting work). They make a nice fat margin with minimum overhead.
The main problem in this business is estimation. Ever asked a programmer how long it will take to write a piece of code? Ever get an accurate answer? I have moved into Engineering (bricks and mortar) businesses and have found a refreshing change. The companies I work for now can say with near certainty what their income will be next year, and can manage development or deployment.
uWink is typical in that the people running the place must do everything in the large. Large salaries, lots of hype, etc. If they were a restaurant company living within their income they would be a great business. It is unfortunate that they are not. They will pull in roughly 3-4M a year on those restaurants. If they were able to exist within that framework, I would say they make a hell of an investment...
The problem faced by the investor is what are they really worth? Who knows? Who can say? Even when a deal is announced, you can usually et a sense of how it affects the financials based on the dollar value of the deal. Because of the lack of this information it is doubly difficult to assess their potential.
In light of that, I suggest the best thing to do is to go with the current trend until the financial situation resolves itself, which will be mid-Nov, when the next financials are released.
Until then, Stockman, let me modify your statement "this will either take off or go to a lower value in mid-Dec.. possible mid-Oct". About as good as you are going to get it. Can't go to zero unless they are completely out to lunch and can't pay their people, or the ST debt people come and take the furniture. Then there will be no place to sit!
I agree with you but wish to add this viewpoint: while cost justification is necessary for any industrial software I don't think it will be the driving factor IMO. Software can be purchased on the basis of reducing cost (ROI analysis) or increasing revenue. Since this software is unique and the mission of the company is entertainment, I don't think cost is the primary driver. Cost justification is nice for the executive inside the company, the product champion or sponsor, as an additional benefit But he/she will primary sell it for the opportunity to add revenue, not reduce cost.
It depends on the nature/ purpose of the software. There is lots of software that operates out of the public eye that does wonderful things. That kind of software will not be bought without a business case justification. However, uWink's stuff is customer -facing and revenue-generating. Different ball game. Chilis is looking at how much revenue it adds, and if it brings in customers. Cost reduction is a side benefit that is more of an issue for the workers than anything else. It is also more of a benefit in Silicon Valley where labor may be scarce to begin with.
The revenue potential or draw is dependent on the quality of the product, something I can't judge.
I have evaluated lots of software in terms of ROI as the product champion.
thanks for providing those rules... good information. I always wondered how this would have to happen.
Yes, but that would be expected. THe stock would be worth more in someone else's hands that could leveage it. I seriously think that in different hands, uWink could do really well. Maybe not Chilis, but seriously what if the company could duplicate the restaurant model across the country? The SG&A would disappear into the corporate mass of the buying company. The restaurants would be immediate revenue.. The borrowing capacity of the buyer would provide the leverage that uWink needs to replicate it's technology profitably.. as the restaurants are profitable.
Someone could pony up up to a buck a share for uWink right now and make it give them immediate ROI in excess of 30%.
I am so full of thoughts and ideas....
Ever consider this? Chilis could just buy them out... why not? They probably have the money, all it would take is a couple of million. To control they need 50% + 1, which at this price is only maybe 2.6 M. There are only about 3 institutional shareholders, they could easily approach them. Then buy on the open market. Maybe they have to state their intentions at some point.. so what? Trim the fat.... make their restaurants the only one with the technology, a huge differentiator. Hell Robert Moss could buy them and I believe he has said as much. In fact, right here:
I bought UWNK shares at the top, and have continued to buy them up to about 6 months ago. I find myself now in a position where I could afford to buy the company, but frankly they are not worth 10c.
To make it even sweeter, they have no debt! Debt is a poison pill that usually makes a takeover difficult.
I once worked for a company in the transportation business. They had a problem that required a technological solution. If you want to know, it was in Yard Management. A PITA in transportation and a money-saving app. After much digging (there was nothing on the market) I found a beautiful solution at another company. Not a competitor, but a blue-chip company in another market. I thought.. beautiful.. I would make my mark. To my chagrin, they would not do it. Reason: they wanted it for themselves, nothing else. They did not want it getting out there for competitive reasons. The license fee income meant nothing to them. Likewise, why should Chilis support uWink when they could have it for themselves?
This goes beyond normal business reason. Why should Chilis not take this for themselves if they can? They know that uWink needs a deal... they will use this to their advantage in their negotiations. why not go all the way?
btw the usual dynamic is this: the customer wants the vendor's development resources to be dedicated to them, not to another customer. They want exactly the functionality they want.. why not just buy them?
In it's current position, uWink is exposed to every blue-chip vendor or large customer that decides they want them.
Just a thought...
don't speak too soon Raw.
- what about the 600k spent on MV?
- what about the ST debt they seemed to have accumulated lately..? If I remember correctly it is 1.2M.
As a result of that, I think they may only have .5M - 1M of Working Capital (or even less) after this next quarter.
what about having a "float"?
!!
see next post.. made a mistake..
I know. I was just agreeing with you. Comparisons to pre-split are kind of a mute point now. Anyway, all I was saying that the fact that the price only went down .03 is meaningless. This volume occurred at a much lower price, hence effectively it was a major drop.
I have not looked today...
Just chatting really.
Little hard to make ourselves heard above the din.
well that is fine... and I don't give a sh__. Usually when I post I am looking for discussion. It is not to pick a fight with anyone and I very rarely challenge or pick a fight with anyone.
Now the same can't be said for those that disagree with my perceived negative posting. I get attacked as soon as I post. So I say what I do... which Netman has well documented.
Just remember who is challenging whom here. And since when does any small investor have Perfect Information upon which to base a decision? Let's face facts, none of us (Pro or Con) can be successful repeatedly without some luck, exceptional brains, guts, control of emotions, and trading skills. Certainly not with Perfect Information. It does not exist.
The problem with Netman's post 18226 is his assertion that all the imperfect information the negative posters use to validate their opinions is BS. Maybe it is not. Who is to say? That is a double standard. The other problem is his statement that Pro posters are held to be 100% accurate. They are not. It is just an opinion. They assume, falsely, that their information is 100% accurate when it isn't and then accuse anybody questioning it as being inaccurate. That is ignorant. Certainly one can't have the premise that company-published information or company websites are by definition the truth. What is the truth? Why has the market fallen so much in the last few days? Why did Nortel go from $120/share to $.26? Because there is alot of BS information out there to be consumed by hapless ignorant investors and the best we can do is to be aware and somewhat skeptical... hence why don't the Pro posters got off of your high horses!!
One other thing about this: there are other stocks out there. I have to compare this with what else is available at that price. The best stock wins. So my opinion on uWink is not really important or definitive. It is neither good or bad. It is just discussion.
you are right.. it depends how you see it. if I had lots of funds and felt like making SURE I was in.. I may play it Net's way. It is hard to tell, because I have had to be careful! I don't have the funds to be any other way....
I guess from my point of view it is like trying to find a bottom, and that is a hard thing to do. Really, with uWink at this point if you are long, you may as well stay in. I am not sure I could handle selling at this point. And they are not out of business or anything. If they had debt, that would be a different story...
my point is that pursuing my strategy here:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32303193
Is just the best play regardless. That is all. It is not throwing in the towel....
I don't think uWink is dead... just trying to find the bottom and protect capital.
yes. I would think that that one order was a bundle of orders. .42 is the price that matters today. the fact it only went down a few cents on paper is meaningless. this was a major dump.
true. good points. I have an image of an executive who is just generally full of sh__. All executives are full of sh__. It is a job requirement. The basic need to maintain a hopeful positive image in a short time frame. Usually 3 mo - 1 year. Enough time to at least plan a successful departure. One of my issues is the inability to create this false aura. At Nortel you had to be in a position for 2 years before you could move on. In that time, given software development cycles, you could pile up one massive load of crap before pronouncing success and moving on to the next plum job. Guys like me that really wanted to get something done had to do the cleaning up.
I was in a meeting once with an executive speaking. The Big Boss was in town. He compared him to a Parade Horse. He said, and I quote, "these guys are like Parade horses, they leave one massive load of cr__ behind them. And this guy ___ , he is one hell of a parade horse". <laughter> That was Baan and I am not kidding.
Yes Nolan is unique.
The companies I have worked at did not generally have a history of failed deals.. just the above. Just alot of talk. Successful talk as well.
In this business there are very few people who really make it big. It is really difficult as an investor to pick a winner. You really have to have your own beliefs. There is just too much crap, IMO.
But I was not there, you were, I cannot judge.
raw, one thing... when I worked in s/w companies for 10-15 years... I heard it all. What you heard at that party is likely B/S. That is the perfect opportunity for them to blow their horns.. that point does not rate compared to what else you are saying.. executives always talk it up at a party.
IMO
I find volume really interesting. In looking at it, that occurred at one big block trade at 3:20 or something.
I am not sure how these MM work, but maybe they bundle up all the orders and do one big trade with a slice for themselves? It was likely not one buyer/Seller.
Also, I would guess that the trading happens in a trading range more than if it was electronic, maybe for the simple reason it is humans setting prices. But, I don't do lvl 2 screens, really don't know.
Lastly, my ignorant (truly) opinion on the delay from yesterday and today is the simple fact that the orders have to be faxed in or something and are not electronic. They must be processed, bundle together or something. I know in Canada they send a fax.. a "pink sheet".
That is all I know. Interesting day.
all true. They will survive. Also, they have no debt...
the restaurants are indeed profitable. I see the concept of a software vendor with revenue-generating restaurants (that also provide at est facility) as very exciting. I don't quite understand why they are using their cash for heating fuel. Wood is cheaper.
The problem is their SG&A. Falling sales at Woodland Hills is not heartening either.
Realistically, when compared to other vendors they are not very far along in their sales efforts.. just an observation IMO.
btw, I meant to say "sell" on the next uptick. I was typing over lunch at work.. had to hit the "Boss" button. ... lol.
out of gas, EOM.
Interesting discussion. I wish to clear up a few things, but please continue....
- me and Fanny are not the same person. I do not know of him/her.
- I am here to comment and will fearlessly make predictions of events and/or stock price movement. I find it fun, and why else are we really here? If you can't get in/ out of something, why bother?
- I make predictions without facts to prove them, only evidence to support them. Hence my opinions can always be attacked. Example: CFO will quit./ Has not happened yet. No direct evidence really.
- I do not simply cut and paste facts unless the author expresses my opinion better than I do.
- I base my opinions on facts, but clearly profess to not be able to be 100% accurate. If that were the case, I would be rich.
- I have been wrong. Example: I liked uWink prior to the second restaurant opening. I was wrong. Raw was right in that instance. He said price had expectations of restaurant opening price movement built in. He was dead right. I will admit when I am wrong.
- I have been mostly right about the downward direction of this stock for the past year. Dead right. I hope to predict a bottom that is profitable for all.
- I am here to generate discussion such as above. Example: sometimes Executives are supposed to and expected to buy stock. Turns out I was correct, as supported and provided references on by Greenband.
- I may not know uWink as Netman does, but I know the software business pretty well.
- Netman has courage for standing up for what he believes in, believing in uWink, and should not be ridiculed for that.
- I can be viewed as the Devils's Advocate here, representing a healthy skeptical point-of-view, befitting this stock over the last year.
aah Netman, I was trying hard to ignore you but I see that you miss me and so I must Needle you again.
Did you notice the stock having trouble over the last few days again? Well, if you had taken my trading advice you would be that much further ahead.. The low today was .42, well within the range I quoted in this below post:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32303193
where I recommended a trading strategy that would have seen you improve your Personal Average Cost position, and Net $1000 (excuse the pun). Now, alas, because of your myopia and misplaced faith in Uwink, Ulose again. U are screwed yet again. You must buy on the next uptick. I fear another opportunity for U has been lost.
The Money Flow Indicator has worked yet again.
btw, nice article. Go uWink Go.
Happy to contribute yet again.
this is actually the only board I am on... so it is hardly random. Likely because I did well on the first runup. Now I am a lifer. I know you all appreciate my insights...
well then I really don't understand why you have the Mark Twain quote in your post. As per usual..you are so indirect I really don't know what your point is. Why don't you just come out and say it? You say you "take someone else's word".. then you make that quote.. so what else is a reader to assume other than you are taking Chris' word? really...
well if you would stop talking about it maybe I would too.
Well I am really smart, right more often than I am wrong, but wrong sometimes.. and I always say exactly what I mean. And I run nothin'. what does that make me.. ? None of the ... below.