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Concerns:
In term of organic growth: Can it be profitable for the reason(2 Q),not just half season(1 Q)??
How much cash drain by the new product,for compliance testing(mildew and fire) and marketing fees(ads and trade shows)??
But the BIGGEST challenge is
Inventory valuation 3Q:
2010 $936K($936K+ $87K deposit)
2011 $790K($550K+$238K deposit)
or
Inventory is DOWN 16%,3Q 2011 vs 3Q 2010;Joe is cutting back on his organic business!! NOT GOOD.
Average cost of imports jumped 16%(Bloomberg)
I believe the organic growth for the season will be CAPPED below 5% at best but NOT ENOUGH to cover the added cost!! Joe need to raise $100K ASAP,just to cover his "money making" season!!
ps- Running on 1 out of 4Q is problematic;adding a new non-related product without a strong balance sheet,most likely making it even worse!! 50%/50% this season ends below expectation.
ER is out........top-line $1.1 million,cost 86%,SG&A 22%,......top-line growth 5% Q/Q......The current business model is flawed!! This stock is worth at 2009 price,$0.07 cents that is!!!
ER is out.....Sale was $39K with $5K from raw Insultex.....write-off was $13K.....private borrowings of $80K... balance sheet: $20k cash;$34k a/r;$550k inventory;$240k deposit.
Joe is out of cash and balance sheet needs infusion of capital: shares dilution soon?????
This baby has been in base building mode since the latest ER(eps=$0.014),is about to BREAKOUT!! Easy money ahead for the long and short term players,80% chance that is,and there just NO SUPPLY of shares for sale!!!
Too optimistic: "...High Profit Margin and low SG&A equates to $$$ profits imo...."
Typically it takes up to 2+ years for manufacturing to achieve its ROI target;this is why IVDN stock price would be most vulnerable going forward!!
As a scavenger buyer,I'm just as excited as you are;but more because I see likely trouble ahead,Joe does not have the balance sheet to get out of it,except dilution galore assuming he botched. Investors standing on the sideline would be better off just wait and keeping powder dry;Why pay more and bear the risk of the new venture,if you can get it cheap later,33% chance the new venture will be challenged and money pit!!
This company survived so far because of low SG&A.....with an added manufacturing operation,the business model most likely changed.....and the effect on SG&A may be front-loaded and high during the first few quarters of production....I believe the new venture is of high risk and distracts Joe from the core business of ONLY brand building and marketing..........NOT MANUFACTURING IN THE USA...a kiss of slow death!!
Licensing out for royalty should be the way to go and to shore up its balance sheet.....IVDN balance sheet may fall to the victim....and the price to be paid is ??????? I'm too sacred to guess!!
"little company on steriods from hank"
I agree and most likely this is just the beginning! 80% chance that is!!
That was a great buy! Hank,this company has been improving fundamentally since our early purchases,going forward may just be the beginning of a well run company; Nice to see there is a change of heart.
167 shares at $0.02................Ouuuuchhhhh!!!
I'm seeing a 66% chance of same old same old! With higher cost,SG&A,.....drought quarters are here to stay....if Joe botched 4th Q again,the MC most likely would be down below $1.00 million.....head winds are everywhere and management are just simply overwhelmed and inflexible........I'm a scavenger buyer and I'm patient!
MM VERT is asking $0.10 with 8500 shares offered! I believe there is a 33% odds that ask price will be down to $0.08 pps in the near future...as pinkie stock tanks.....
At $0.08 pps,it is a good bargain!
At $0.06 pps,it is a great bargain!
Reality is that Joe is the company,as time goes by,he seems more of a liability than asset! He can do what ever he wants and there is really nothing we can do about it. Again,I put this company on my radar and wait,as I anticipate and keeping my powder dry,hoping management's change of heart is remotely likely and within 2-3 years.
DJRT is another fish that I'm tracking and it has the same issues,as I patiently waited since late 2010.
WARNING:
This company is in technical default and it has been practically written off by investors for the last few years......NOT for the faint of hearts!
We all believe this company is financially challenged but it can go on for another few more years,capping losses of $150k per year! As the boss becomes tired,takeover by the oversea supplier would be a natural,the question: how do you and I benefit??
Again,I do believe this dog would not BK any time soon and,just may be,Joe would add new blood and relinquish his control of the company!! Until then,I just simply wait and see,no skin in the game yet.
Another dog I'm checking for flee is MRFD,defaulted recently and has a similar high return potential.This company has the management,caught with its pants down in the last economic down draft,but does it have the expertise to restructure itself and not f%%kup again??? The CEO is 72 years,I believe he is fighting for his life on this one and would not go down easily!!!
ps-Will Joe ended up like MRFD before he took drastic change!! Yes,I believe he would.
With all known risk out in the open and a 25% chance of high return likely,This company is cheap! Based on MC,each store is about $20k,using 72 stores,and with debt of about $500k per store!
The company is no longer $0.25 pps,as the price drops further,you may have to create a firewall between the present and the past,to help you on calculated bets! At $1.00 pps,I expect close to perfection;at below $0.10 pps,mine standards are down to a likehood of change,period!!
Again,I'm a junkyard stock buyer and seeing ghosts in these vehicles does not help,irrelevent really.
ps-I'm like a scanvenger,feed off other people mistakes and try to not be eaten.
"With the completion of the Insultex(R) House-Wrap and word from our sales representatives on interested new accounts across the country for our Arctic Armor products, anticipation is running high on future sales. After months of communication, we have received verbal acceptance of our Arctic Armor products into one of the largest and well-known clothing retailers in the United States,..."
The above goodwill should be a backstop supporting the stock above $1.0 million MC,but I believe lack of inventory(or give out credit) would impede sales; Inventory for Arctic Armor is around $0.5 million,down but cleaned up! Also,in the current housing market: "No credit,No sales!" Credit cycle up to 120 days are the norm.Ouuchhhh.
Also,the CEO has been repeatedly jumping the gun too soon! He has used up 80% of his creditability among the royal investors.Not good as the gap widens.
Therefore,I believe future investors(who are patient) have a 33% odds buying shares when MC=$1.00 million!! It is perfectly ok if I missed the boat,again,I have 2 other fishes to catch and all of the same size. The low ball price that I intend to pay is contingent to structure change by the management and does not guarantee success.
ps-From an importer's view and I would paid around $500K for the Arctic Armor line!!
Dear Profit:
As the world economy tanks and no job creations in the US,I'm certain to see forced changes in this company,within the next 2 years. Why: The US retail market slowing,the dollar tanking,raw material and foreign labor going through the roof,a/r up another 30 days late likely......or headwind galore particularly to those with weak balance sheet!! I believe the stock price can go lower,33% odds,as the company sales floundering due to a lack of inventory,and I'm patient...
Medium Risk and High Reward when price is down below $0.10 pps!!!
There are few silver linings if you were correct
1 CEO controlling interest down below 50%,new blood more likely;
2 MC down around $1.5 million,urge to change more likely;
3 Stay focus,e.g. dropping "House Wrap",more likely;
I'm a distressed nano company chaser and the sweet smell of IVDN blood turns me on!! With SG&A around $150.0k in the past consecutive quarters,It is your move Mr. CEO!! Any bad move,Check Mate,and you are kicked upstairs!!!
PS-Backstop: Arctic Armor brand has a intrinsic value around $500K I believe. Medium risk is from a likely event of share dilution,up to 5 million shares!!
"......For the three months ended March 31, 2011, the registrant had sales of $539,261 with cost of sales and services of $277,692 for a gross profit of $261,569......for the three months ended March 31, 2010, the registrant had sales of $598,637 with cost of sales of $285,886 for a gross profit of $312,751....."
The revenue decreased and cost was inelastic,not a good sign;The business model does not work with stagnant sales,and BIG CHANGE is a must! 2 cents worth of recommendation: shrink number of classes and pack each class like a sardine can,like what airliners have done to survive!
I believe more dilution is coming at your expense.
".....The revenues in q1 starting in 2005 have been: 221k, 151k, 321k, 417k, 447k, 599k, and 539k. The overall direction is steadily rising with a curve ball thrown in now and then...."
The SG&A in every q1 since 2005 were: 284k,273k,399k,458k,366k,366k,418k;
Unless there is a fixed linkage of SG&A to sales at 50% and less,the management is marginal at best,and likely resulting more share dilutions soon! The CEO,the driver of the company,is where the problem lies! His track record lacked CFO sense and his actions seemed to be afraid to cut his bloated cost structures,which is sinking the balance sheet,with the growth of the company stuck in reverse again and again,as 10+ years of time have gone by!!
Nice break down of 1Q numbers! Unless the management cut SG&A down to 50% of sales,the game is over for the company! Time to look for a new CEO.
I'm a prospector of penny stock and have this stock since 2008,and I believe it is a golden nugget,but size unknown!
I love your investment philosophy: "Go for the GOLD!"; This one should do the trick,and WELCOME abroad.
"What's wrong with this picture?"
Nothing!! I guess investors of DJRT knew the price of everything and value of none. At shares of $0.06,CHEEEEEEAPP...............
Million dollar question:
Does emperor have CLOTH?? To the new longs,you got BALLS and good luck,you are going to need it!!
Dear Frank:
The company has been a value buy since 2008 for me and I believe it is in the process of becoming a growth company,with higher multiples tha is. In the presentation,the new CFO Terry Stoke, should further INMG growth strategy! The next thing to look for is the 4th Q eps and I had a feeling it's going to be above expectation!!
Investor Presentation - Feb 2011
http://www.imiglobal.com/downloads/IMI-Investors.pdf
INMG...$0.2488,easy money is here!
It has been base building since 2008 and I believe the stock is about to "POP" soon in the early part of 2011!
Dear Gi*****:
I'm too cheap to have signed up for the fancy services! I can be reached at greasemonkeyshoes@yahoo.com and provide mine penny's worth of guess work: biased of course but with a 50%+ chance being close to reality!
It is nice to see price stability of a Form 15 company. The million dollar question: does anyone knows the quality of the Acroplate out on the field?? If NO,you are just kidding yourself. Your odds are just as good as "rolled the dice!" Good luck to you.
My posting at Yahoo,many weeks ago
Scenario 1:
aysi.PK would continue operating but the ownership of existing shareholders is under siege and shareholder ownership is likely be made smaller,if not irrelevant: Either through technical BK or capital infusion favors a "White Knight!" And the white knight is most likely be Gene's other company,which has royalty fee claims against aysi.PK and ready to go! Reality check: Gene's has the controlling interest;Gene is the board;Gene is the management;Gene's shadow company can be the creditor and has a lien on the aysi.PK if need be,superseding shareholders' claim! Worst part: His other company can suspend the licensing and use of ACROPLATE to/by aysi.PK!! When will he show his TRUE COLORS?? Remember: Gene is smarter and more selfish than any of you and he can eat his young(YOU) at will!!
Scenario 2:
"A hole in the ground!" by King Cozzi.
Scenario 3:
Sub-standard quality and customer returns galore! End game: Go to Scenario 1 and consolation prize "NO foul play!!"
Clarification:
66% BK meant 66% chance the shareholders got a BIG SCREW!! The likelihood of aysi.PRIVATE is high and the question is: WHAT CAN YOU DO ABOUT IT??? Bend over.....enjoy.....PAIN....BLOOD.....THIS IS THE REAL WORLD......MOMMMMYYYYYYYYYYYYY!! I CAN'T TAKE THIS ANYORE!!! Ouuuccchhhhhhhh.......
Response: "Somebody should give these guys AYSI's number... "
But Gene wants all! And shareholders have rolled over and played dead!! Gene thinks he can get away,again and again,as he has for years in the past. To stop him cold,I believe among PR releases,there were plenty of lies,making the management liable under Section 18(a) and an easy way to insure shareholder protection for further abuse,e.g. if he decided to go PRIVATE at shareholders expense!
Or call
"The San Diego securities lawyers at Virginia H. Gaburo & Associates represent individuals and brokerage firms throughout southern California in securities law matters. When you retain our services you can expect highly personal services from an experienced attorney who will aggressively represent your interests and pursue your claim or defense. Call us at 858-546-0183, or filling out our intake form."
References:
Section 18(a) applies to claims for materially fraudulent statements in a company's SEC filings that caused an investor to invest. Section 18(a) provides for a private right of action for actual purchasers or sellers of the security at issue. The plaintiff must prove that he or she did not know that the statement was false or misleading, that he or she actually relied on the statement when buying or selling the security and that the price of the security was affected by the fraudulent statement. Any person who made a false statement or caused it to be made, as well as aiders, abettors and control persons can be held liable. Good faith is an affirmative defense to a claim under Section 18(a). The burden is on the defendant to prove that he or she acted in good faith with no knowledge that any statement was false or misleading.
I'm pretty sure the numbers are
For 3Q
eps=$0.005 or half a cent per share per quarter;
For Year to date(Jan-Sep)
eps=$0.01 or 1 cent.
And
$0.233 is the stock price.
"New Normal"....gold just hit above $1420!!
Thanks to QE2 and the Fed: No wonder Tea party is going after your AS$S......as the average Americans are loosing theirs!! When will this MADNESS stops?? aysi.PK suppose to be a hedge to all this Mess...Sad,Sad,and Sad.
On September 27, 2010, Alloy Steel International, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an Indemnification Agreement with ............... Barry Woodhouse, Chief Financial Officer of the Company .........."
Same time as the Form 15-12g filing date. Is Barry the NEW LAP DOG of Gene,a master builder of house of cards????
Shareholder Action Plan
The lessons here are several:
If a company you own announces plans to deregister, don’t panic. If the fundamentals are intact, the shares are probably worth owning. Even in the less liquid pink sheets, shares of firms with improving fundamentals will appreciate. However, you should call the firm immediately to assess their plans for ongoing communication with outside shareholders. Ask the same questions we did of Southern Energy Homes—which gave the right answers. If you receive answers that indicate communication will be lessened, there may be some governance issues relating to the treatment of outside shareholders. For example, we would find it difficult to own shares of a company that provided only an annual report and had no annual meetings or election of directors.
Make sure the fundamentals are intact. Use the deregistration announcement as an opportunity to perform a thorough review of company prospects. Often a firm will deregister to help hide a deteriorating financial condition, bad accounting or other ailments
Fortune favors the bold. To be a successful investor you must have the courage of your convictions. That means if you’ve done your homework, don’t be afraid to step up to the plate, especially in the face of consensus opinion that’s going the other way. "
Courtesy of John Deysher (Complete Article Link http://www.aaii.com/commentary/articles/200601_stockstrategies.cfm )
Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire Carlos Slim, the world’s richest man, ........................ Currency devaluations “will not succeed in any way and they will pressure commodities,” he said.
From FT:
Another commodity with price going through the roof besides iron ore
"The cost of tires, gloves and condoms is set to rise following a 65 per cent jump in the price of natural rubber in the past year."