Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Goal/challenge:
Eventually hit $4.0 and becomes margin-able: capital formation,new source of ammunition.
Odds and bases:
25% chance,subjective,within the next 5 years. Bases: Management(focused),management(industry leader),and management(25%+ net income margin w/NOL);no dilution period(capped at 21 million shares);sense of fair play built into the company culture,a rarity;other macros: high barrier to entry;fragmented market;paradigm change inside/outside of the supply chain;world's new order;........
Why:
so I can acquire,2-5% ownership per year of selected nano stocks,using "2008 INMG template" as soon as 2015!!
Just may be,James O’Shaughnessy(Guru with 30%+ ROI),watch out!!
Thanks for providing liquidity in this stock!! Wish I can join you,but I'm a terrible trader;O.K.,I'm a pack rat.
This dynamo has so many tricks under its sleeve,I almost stopped guessing how far it might go,judging strictly by the stock fundamental!! Technically it has build great niches with diversified basket of value-added portfolios,thru its amazing platforms(USVerified,WhereFoodComesFrom,..),that can be leveraged and monetized multiple times,within the premium protein segment of "US Food Basket to the World";or more specifically: adding value at every levels to the US-rancher-packer-distribution-consumer supply chain to the world!!
"..What if Insultex has the same slow start just like the Arctic Armor had?? And how likely,based on Joe's track record?? How big a $$$$ HOLE and how many years LONG???.." My concern back in 9/2011
Today with the 10K: How many more quarters does Joe need to
1. Stop the sale drop;
2. Grow the sale by 15%;
3. Get a resolution on HouseWrap: Troy Horse for shareholders so far;
4. Extend selling season from 1(quarter) to 2 per year;
5. Access to commercial lines of credit;
6. .............
Again,Joe missed 2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,and most likely 2012-2013 too,90% chance.
or
Dead money looking 2 years out!!
"..Indonesia will oblige mining companies to process metal ores locally from 2014, including copper, iron ore, nickel and bauxite, according to a ministerial decree that confirms a timetable in the nation’s 2009 mining law...."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-10/indonesia-to-ban-exports-of-metal-ore-from-2014-ministry-says.html
ps- Will the new master(Indonesia) eat the old master Gene for lunch,at a cost around $5.0 million dollars and more??
"..The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates to ship dry commodities, fell again on Thursday(1/26/2012) as the fall in iron ore spot trade continued to depress rates,..cost of shipping commodities including iron ore, coal and grain, fell 31 points or 3.95 percent to 753 points and was at its lowest since Jan. 6, 2009. It has now HALVED since the start of the year."
http://www.blackseagrain.net/photo/baltic-index-falls-to-753-points
A replay of 2008 at work???? 66% chance.
"(Gene is)Buying loyalty with your money," I posted on Yahoo 12/11/2011 based on
".......Director Compensation......Beginning in the fiscal year ending September 30, 2011, the Company will pay a director’s fee of AUD $75,000 per annum to each non-employee and non-executive director........" See page 3
http://www.alloysteel.net/media/pdf/AYSI-AGM-Information-Statement-2011%5B1%5D.pdf
Instead of me sounding like a broken record,repeating why: get out now;buy it back when form 15-12g is lifted or when Gene is reigned in!! It just not worth it. Again,AYSI.OB was my flagship,had big hope,down graded the investment,when it became obvious the company hinged on one man,GENE: out of control and red flags abound!And triggered the "sell signs."
My sell rules: "3 Sell Signs" by Motley Fool:
"...No. 1. Selfish management........Tom(author) calls this the "worst possible development" for any of his companies. If the executive team starts worrying more about lining its own pockets than creating value with the business, it's time to let go. For clues, keep an eye on excessive compensation, active insider selling, declining market share, and aggressive accounting. A classic example of the latter occurred at Cendant a number of years ago under a previous management team -- which, at the time, was one of the largest cases of accounting fraud ever....."
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/01/03/3-sell-signs.aspx
Just simply waiting for the 10K. Happy holidays to everyone!
Happy Holidays to you Hank!
A big revenue driver at work for SAV:
http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2011-08-11/pdf/2011-20281.pdf
ps- Sir Winston Churchill said: The Americans Will Always Do the Right Thing…After They Have Exhausted All the Alternatives.
"".....In last PR on Q3 results they said: "Since early July 2011, conditions have improved and the order book has strengthened remarkably." Seems to be a bit of wishful thinking, and I am being charitable there...""
I have to agree with your "I am being charitable there!" Unless form 15-12g goes away,be critical of the company and limit your exposure!
I believe Tim tried but the capital market was practically dead and never recovered since 2008! I like the company only because MC is cheaper than its tangible assets,big alpha,if it didn't go bk within the next 2-3 years. Again,I'm a scavenger buyer and I don't mind the odds of 25%(bk) vs 10 baggers(ROI),and my entry for the cheap stock is 1Q 2012,likely one of the most challenging Q in DJRT history. DJRT: a Man or a Jr??
Merry Christmas to everyone(still in the game and waiting for next BIG KILL)!
3 Sell Signs:
".....1. Selfish management.
Tom calls this the "worst possible development" for any of his companies. If the executive team starts worrying more about lining its own pockets than creating value with the business, it's time to let go. For clues, keep an eye on excessive compensation, active insider selling, declining market share, and aggressive accounting. A classic example of the latter occurred at Cendant a number of years ago under a previous management team -- which, at the time, was one of the largest cases of accounting fraud ever....."
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/01/03/3-sell-signs.aspx
ps- Be grateful the stock has not gone down to pennies yet! This article was posted on Yahoo:AYSI back in 2009/2010,as the emperor changed its CPA,again and again!!
From 8K filed on 12/14/2011:
"....Adrian Vazquez, M.D., resigned his positions as Chairman of the Board, President and a director of Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc...."
I got a bad,bad,bad feeling that the coming ER is BAD,BAD,and BAD;realization that the business model is flawed ever since the beginning,is not helping the management;and a likely share dilution as the next option,if not the only option,to save the balance sheet at current shareholders expense,again!
A simple answer to a simple question,is NO!
Balance sheet improvements stopped dead on its track since 2010;DJRT would be most vulnerable,as expansion proceeds and expenses mount,as a going concern;excess to new capital would be difficult;and dilution of shares,high cost to shareholders,might not be avoidable!
MC>$5.00 million
There are better bargains!
MC<$0.75 million
Backed by 15 cars plus parts,driving platform,management know how,goodwill..IT IS CHEAP!!
At $0.03 pps:
Risk estimation vs ROI expectation:
25% vs 3 baggers;
I believe the risk of belly up is 25%(subjective) but ROI can be 10x,higher than risk-adjusted 3x! WARNING,this is a SPECULATIVE GRADE STOCK and use the money that YOU CAN LOSE.
17000 shares sold at $0.026;based on this price,MC is down to $637K,that is very very cheap!!
Bid is down to $0.0251,would anyone sell?? Uncertainties and nervousness are on the horizon and time for Tim to tell us more about the big plan for 2012!
I believe the proper question is "Will Dave be down under and find out about the elusive truth from Gene/Barry and salvage his reputation?" And stop hiding behind his ZZZZZ-SCORES....it is becoming comical!!
What is odds Barry would be in charge of the annual meeting??
66% chance!
For the IMI Global latest and fun:
http://www.facebook.com/pages/IMI-Global-Inc/450899230130
Management discussion of 3Q was brief and lacked discussion of revenue short fall and why?? My concern: Is Tim "gun shy",worrying about the weakened balance sheet,"All or Nothing" risk of running 2 hubs on vapor??
Motivation to the crews: Chance to compete,head to head, against Richard Petty driving school,the number 1 top dog!! What you all have waited for!!
To the team: Stay focused(pinch pennies on cost) and keep on creating "life-time experience" for your customers safely!!
Relax,this has nothing to do with Gene and his company!
What's going on elsewhere and matter to our financial health??
http://market-ticker.org/post=197702
In 2010,25% increase of dates was announced for 2011,and sale has been flat so far,one more quarter to go.
It has been announced,50% increase of dates for 2012,mostly thru its new hub operation,what is the likely top-line increase for 2012??
As customers cut back,the headwinds are blowing stronger than as ever on the company. Solution: No new cars,pack all 15 cars like sardine cans,to BREAK-EVEN and NOT LOOSING MONEY,a tough challenge for 2012!!
A touchy question to Gene by Dave:
".........
2) In responses to shareholder questions in August of last year, the company said,
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We are dealing with new technology that has required numerous adjustments to our manufacturing process (to improve efficiencies and quality) which has led to downtime, limiting our capacity.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Was this new technology related to the company’s thicker Super Arcoplate? Has the number of adjustments required diminished, or is this still limiting your capacity? .............."
This one is too close to pinching his nerve and the most likely reason Gene will not respond and ignore Dave's request. Why: I believe SuperAcroplate never made it out of the door,66% chance,it just that simple.
ER is out........
Net income is $11K vs $161K(3Q,2010).
I believe the 4Q would be below prior year numbers and the whole year 2011 income would be negative,90% chance!
I still like the expansion plan for next year: fast death is better than slow death!! Just joking......but be prepared for waves of likely share dilutions(balance sheet needs about $500K for the planned capital expenditures!!)
How his mind works,66% chance.......family suffers,90% chance....it just that simple(when you broke trust).
http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/3884691/?playlist_id=
"It takes one to know one."
Resources:
http://www.blogger.com/profile/03826060555883105968
Disclosures:
I may just be an "ambulance chaser" on this easy feed,and taking on Gene in legal claims,??% chance..but only pps is down to pennies and "a smart arrangement" with attorney is reached!
Beside being an "objective" messenger,I'm a scavenger buyer, "lowest of the lows!" I smell blood,time to get out of my hole,filled with dead bodies and maggots!!
ps-One of the tool that I might have is to have a lien on his visiting grandson's car: I can play dirty too!! Grandpa Gene.
Had Alan sold all his stocks(or partial),walked away with your hard earned money,with insider information and at shareholders expense,it is fraud!! He should be the weakest link to bust: there is no honor among thieves. It just that simple(to bust Gene,and he knows it).
I believe the purpose of the meeting is to develop a "Pearl Harbor file!" But after the fact. I would like to see his face,if one of you smart ones,brought in an attorney at his "Dog and Pony Show!" and serve him!!
I hope the boyzzz are not turning into crying babies!! STOP DREAMING AND DO SOMETHING,before Gene swallows you all,and this time is FINAL!!!
THE END.
Recourse:
http://www.talbotolivier.com.au/services...
ps-I'm just a messenger since 2008/2009,delivering "HOW NOT TO BE THE TURKEY!"
"Kostecki Café" is hilarious...I swear,it is not a joke...
Truth starts to come out,are you ready boyzzzz:
http://www.alloysteel.net/media/pdf/AYSI-AGM-Information-Statement-2011%5B1%5D.pdf
My favorites and why the emperor has NO CLOTH:
"......Royalty License Agreement......Fiscal Year End Royalty Expense
2010 $479,000
2009 $174,000
2008 $260,000......"
"...."Kostecki Engine".....In addition, Kostecki Engine provided certain machining, manufacturing and automotive maintenance services to the Company during 2008-2010.
The aggregate amounts paid and/or accrued in connection with the services described above in the relevant fiscal year are listed below:
Fiscal Year End Amount
2011 AUD $1,551,000
2010 AUD $866,000
2009 AUD $10,000......"
"....Sponsorship of Western Speed Racing....in an amount of $100,000 per year from February 2011 for a period of three years, subject to an annual review. Brodie Kostecki ......is the grandson of Gene Kostecki...."
"....Kostecki Café, an affiliate of Mr. Kostecki, provides refreshment and meal services to the Company on standard terms and conditions and at market prices......"
Great question! I have another one: 15 cars enough??....2012 will definitely be a challenging and interesting year for management and investors too!! Fasten your seat belts and enjoy the ride.....
Based on past earning report,3Q always outperformed 2Q;I was a bit surprised to see a gap between "reality and hope" or my number was about $100K off!!
A likely source and for a great reason:
"....increased to $460,400 from $376,700 in the same quarter last year due to increased investments in promoting the Where Food Comes From program...."
Again,I believe INMG is a high growth company,with professional management and execution;a gold nugget and sizable!
"..Q3 net income up 93% to $204,000 from $106,000..."
I was hoping a bit more!
A word to Gene/Barry:
Stop this madness....let the skeletons out of the closet....go back to what worked well before and regroup...before it is TOO LATE ...life time REPUTATION and WORK RUINED!!
Dear Dave: Great effort again but the odds are NOT in your favor,and I wish I'm off on this one.
We got ourself a "ten bagger" in the making!! 66% chance in 5 years.
We would know for sure around 4/15/2012. The million dollar question: Is Tim ready for the big time? A company in the past only moved at the speed of a turtle,with a stomach of a rabbit,and possibly a mindset as you described!! But the risk of your conclusion: You might be looking at the company thru a rear-mirror view with a thinking inside-of-a-box!
I'm not saying there wouldn't be any "growing pain" and "blowouts"; But for those seeking alpha,buying before 1st Q 2012 ER might be a great entry point,at $0.03 pps! For the faint of heart,chasing after ER,paying a bit more but safer bet,might be the way to go.
Historically the 1st Q has been problematic in term of sales,sales,and sales or,with ugly ratio and loss,a big drag. The Las Vegas addition is a smart move and strategically motivated,a bit overdue,but better late than never!
If Tim can run an "above average" operation,the company should finally
1 Sees top-line increase of 20% going forward;
2 Levers its 10-old infrastructure platform;
3 Capitalizes and monetizes its brand on a national level,with added small incremental cost;
4 ....
Tactical challenges
1 Double actions turned into double troubles;
2 Lost of grip on cost structure and blowout;
3 .....
But at $0.03 pps,this stock is looking pretty and just may be,a worthwhile candidate for me,as a long investment.
It just getting better and better!!
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-21/shrinking-beef-supply-spurs-record-prices-as-sales-decline.html
ps- I assumed there is a strong correlation between beef price and the need of beef value-added services.
Net income estimate and probability for 3Q,2011
$200k:90%(probability);
$250k:80%;
$300k:75%;
$350k:66%;
$400k:50%
or
Breaking new high of $0.40 pps: 66% probability!! Only 6 weeks to go for an easy 33%+ gain of paper profit!!!
What if Insultex has the same slow start just like the Arctic Armor had?? And how likely,based on Joe's track record?? How big a $$$$ HOLE and how many years LONG??? Joe's track record: Struggling and getting by...sold more shares.....another $100k borrowed...another year gone....continuing the "same old,same old!!"
Remember: stock price was $0.50 in 2008 and dropped $0.10 per year ever since. Can it be SAVED by Insultex.....we shall know in 1 or 2 Q.