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1Q to 2Q:
MC went from $3.6 million to $23.0 million!!! The increase was due to dilution of shares from 36 million shares to 120 million shares!!! HJOE was a great bet at MC=$3.6 million,not at $23.0 million. Who can tell me otherwise??
ps-Followed J.W. Roth of Accredit Members for multiple years since he left INMG back in 2006.....if he is still actively involved in HJOE: BE CAREFUL and Vaseline ready.
Spot price: to $88.70 per tonne on Thursday
http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/08/30/us-markets-ironore-idINBRE87T0VX20120830
Click,click,click,........
Cash $266K(from $3259K 9/2011)
A/R $5200K(from $2389K 9/2011 and % owned by his tribe)
Note Payable $202K
Tax Payable $1085K(aysi only??)
Account Payable $3358K(likely write-off and aysi only??)
The company is running out of cash and needs infusion of capital ASAP!
Or
Putting it politely,the balance sheet can not take any more hit from
1 Continued investment to any project: Indonesia,$100k/year to his grandson,.....;
2 Increased A/R;
3 Increased inventory built-up;
4 ..........
ps-Make sure aysi did not become a sink(dump ground) for Gene's personal liabilities!!
Spot price:$US90.30 per MT on Wednesday
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/breaking-news-business/fortescue-unhappy-with-iron-ore-price-20120830-2530b.html
I was hoping eps=$0.04,not $0.01,for the 4Q!! I'm certain 3Q eps was an aberration,not the trend,and this baby still is too wild for me own and sleep well at night. Shares count increased 5.6% y/y,a bit much for my taste and stomach.
"fallen to around $90 spot, $86 futures.."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/835821-iron-ore-crash-worsens
3 Sell Signs(that served me well on AYSI)
By Rex Moore | More Articles
January 3, 2009 | Comments (0)
Most loyal Fool readers know how we feel about selling. If you've found a great company with top-notch management and a strong competitive advantage, the best time to sell is almost never.
But that doesn't mean we hold on blindly. Things change, even with the greatest of companies. That's why we're constantly evaluating our stocks and watching for the danger signs that can torpedo our portfolios.
Today, I'd like to share three rules for selling, as set forth by Fool co-founder Tom Gardner for his Motley Fool Stock Advisor members.
1. Selfish management.
Tom calls this the "worst possible development" for any of his companies. If the executive team starts worrying more about lining its own pockets than creating value with the business, it's time to let go. For clues, keep an eye on excessive compensation, active insider selling, declining market share, and aggressive accounting. A classic example of the latter occurred at Cendant a number of years ago under a previous management team -- which, at the time, was one of the largest cases of accounting fraud ever.
2. Competitive disadvantages.
Competitive advantages lead businesses to high returns on capital and equity. They could result from many things -- for instance, UPS's (NYSE: UPS ) and FedEx's (NYSE: FDX ) distribution systems, or Amazon.com's (Nasdaq: AMZN ) and Priceline.com's (Nasdaq: PCLN ) online brands. Though different in nature, these advantages all allow higher returns than most competitors. But if a company in your portfolio is facing weak pricing power, a declining customer base, and lower market share, it's likely operating at a competitive disadvantage.
3. An unstable financial model.
First, let's think of strong companies with stable models, such as McDonald's (NYSE: MCD ) , Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG ) , and CVS Caremark (NYSE: CVS ) . They're known for stable or rising margins, tight control over working capital, steadily increasing sales, and loads of cash from operations. Companies that aren't following suit in two or more of these categories are showing us a big red flag.
What about valuation?
Obviously, a stock carrying a sky-high valuation is a candidate for selling. But this is the toughest call of all. If properly valuing a company is so easy, after all, everyone would be rich ... happily buying low and selling high. So tread carefully here; it takes many accurate valuation-based sell calls to make up for just one missed multibagger.
The three sell signs I've outlined above aren't too hard to spot. Tom and his brother David have employed accurate selling and buying guidelines on their way to outstanding performance in Stock Advisor -- since inception, their recommendations have averaged a gain of 7% versus a 22% loss for equal amounts invested in the S&P 500.
"Credit-default swaps on Rio jumped 15 basis points to 155 in Sydney yesterday,......Rio has $21.7 billion of bonds outstanding, including $3 billion of sold on Aug. 21, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The debt load has increased from $14.3 billion of bonds as of June 30, 2011, the data show.
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (FMG), Australia’s biggest seller of junk bonds, has $7.04 billion of notes outstanding, while BHP owes $23.3 billion to bondholders......."
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-08-28/rio-risk-soars-to-june-high-as-iron-ore-drops-australia-credit
Australia's minister declared the mining boom is over....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/19388451
Spot Price: $97.50 - $3.5 = $94.00 per MT!!
"...Faced with a lack of buying interest, sellers of foreign
iron ore cargoes to China slashed prices a further $3-$4 a tonne
on Tuesday, according to Beijing-based industry consultancy
Umetal.
That followed a nearly 4 percent drop in the price of
benchmark 62-percent iron ore IODBZ00-PLT to $97.50 per tonne
on Monday, the lowest since November 2009, based on data from
information provider Platts......"
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/28/markets-ironore-idUSL4E8JS1EN20120828
"..Prices would probably find support at about $70 per tonne,
said a trader in Singapore, less than double the production cost
of top miners Vale SA, Rio Tinto Ltd and BHP Billiton Ltd .
BHP Billiton last week shelved two expansion plans worth at
least $40 billion, blaming soaring development costs and falling
commodities prices....."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/27/markets-ironore-idUSL3E8JR1AL20120827
"Going forward, therefore, those who invest in iron ore should do so in the full knowledge that supply will meet demand in due course and that the scarcity pricing that we have seen over the last 10 years is unlikely to be repeated."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/827881-a-look-at-rio-tinto-s-iron-ore-exposure?source=yahoo
"buy contracts at below $90/dry mt.."
http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/Metals/8666860
"Iron ore spot and futures markets in China have been dropping quickly, and the drops are not yet reflected in the major producers' earnings estimates......"
http://seekingalpha.com/article/819961-iron-ore-falling-off-a-cliff
"Iron Ore Declines Below $100 as Growth Slows in China"
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-08-24/iron-ore-drops-below-100-as-slowing-growth-in-china-cuts-demand
"Total excavator sales fell 24 percent from a year earlier.."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-24/caterpillar-cuts-china-production-as-digger-slump-reaches-mining.html
"Go West,Young Man!"
It is very impressive to see djrt took on the opportunity/risk by the horns and completed its first major expansion in years,without external funding like dilution/private placement/anything at the expense of current shareholders;also the management proved "it has what it take to win," under adverse condition;win-win for everyone and a great success story!
Western states are untouched:
The hard work/sacrifice positioned the company for the next leg up: access to a long-awaited market,lucrative and SIZABLE!!
A bit more feedback on the latest ER:
Double digit organic topline growth: HUB-II anchor/addition is secured and working!
SG&A: capped below 50%: the management team was financially disciplined and the "penny-pinching" is likely to be the new norm!Two hubs separated by thousands of miles,did not impose noticeable impact on the SG&A!! Wooowww.....impressive!!!
Gross: 51% and should go back to 55% norm soon,I hope.
Outlook for djrt should be profitable the next 2 quarters and break-even for the year of 2012. This should mend the balance sheet from POOR to FAIR!!
EPS expectation:
2013 $0.02
2014 $0.04
2015 $0.08 w/HUB-II fully extended
or
Stock price of $1.00 in 3-5 years!!
ps-Diultion concern: changed from likely to unlikely.
Death clock started clicking for the unprepared........
Forward looking in the world of iron ore:
"...Australian National University researcher Luke Hurst suggests this underestimates the impact the rapidly developing African iron ore industry will have on the world market.
China has been building iron ore capacity in Africa to reduce its dependence on Australia and Brazil. There are about 30 iron ore projects planned or under development across the continent.
Hurst has analysed 17 of the most developed, which are divided into 27 production expansion phases. If only the six projects already under construction or firmly locked in are developed on schedule, there would be another 31 million tonnes a year of capacity by 2018. If the 10 medium-risk ventures, including Rio Tinto's Simondou project in Guinea, are developed, there would be an additional 166 million tonnes of capacity. If all 27 projects are developed, it would add add 481 million tonnes a year of capacity by 2018, roughly the level of Australian production now. Many of these projects have low production costs and high grades....."
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/little-hope-in-the-long-term-for-iron-ore-prices/story-e6frg9qo-1226438059976
What's the implication on Aussie iron ore miners and its supporting industries?? And why there was no funding.Period.
Miners' capital expenditure had(happening now) to be cut and fast!! Iron ore pricing model for 2018 and beyond had to be lowered between $60-$100 per MT,assuming China can maintain its 7% growth rate. Headwinds are building for iron ore miners/supporting industries: BRAKE,de-leverage BIG TIME,CANCEL ALL EXPANSION,and FIX BALANCE-SHEET!!
Long term concern for AYSI:
Window of opportunity,once every few decades,coming to an end!! What has Gene done for the company(balance-sheet and cutting-edge product line) to weather through the next few decades?? Not very much.
Short term concern:
AYSI bloated fixed cost structure and half-pint "BIG PROJECTS," would likely spin out of control soon. I predict BK is on the horizon: within 3Q-4Q,50% chance likely.
Investor concern:
AYSI will be the "sacrificial turkey" for Gene to sink all liabilities;while he hopes the "fire-wall," will hold for his personal "BIG PROJECTS!". It just that simple,if think like a crook.
You guys waited longer than I have,you deserved it!! I won't be far behind. The company is worth at least $2.5 million and it is still cheappppppp......
Not for much longer comes next week!! We got our self a fat one.
It's nice to see this baby is being powered by a V-8,no longer by a L-4,and the next 3q should be very interesting......seeing Jarret family's involvement is priceless....any thing below $0.05 pps is CHEEEEEAAAPPPPPP!!
Thanks for the pr.
http://gspawn.com/dale-jarrett-stops-by-the-shop/
Here we go again.............
http://www.alloysteel.net/media/pdf/AYSI-Q1-2012.pdf
"".....The Company has during the quarter and up to the date of this announcement, funded the expansion from cash flow whilst it sought alternative funding opportunities. To date, the Company has been unable to finalise external funding (either debt or equity) on terms that are satisfactory to it and its major shareholder due to unacceptable requests for personal guarantees.
Given the erosion of gross margins referred to above, the Company is evaluating whether it can continue to fund the Indonesian expansion without external funding. The Company is presently evaluating all available options. Currently, budgeted costs for completion of the stage 1 facility are approximately USD 6million.
Barry Woodhouse, Director and CFO stated, “Despite the Company recording higher sales for the quarter compared to same period last year, overall profit was down as a result of continuing Gross Margin pressures. It is clear that this is an unattractive paradigm. Bringing the Indonesian facilities on line as quickly as possible is a strategic imperative at this stage.” ......""
ps- As long as the naked emperor is in charge,who in their right mind would be involved with Gene: NO ONE!!
f&&k me once,it is your fault;
f^^k me twice,it is my fault;
f**k me multiple times,need to the head(BIG) examined.
More tailwind: 48%(millennial) vs 29%(baby boomers) favor organic food
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/trouble-in-aisle-five-bih4~TLWSbeaAGgnbVztGg.html
Did a quick tally,someone drove up the stock price,with less than 80k shares purchased above $0.20 pps. Last batch of shares traded below $0.20 pps was on 7/16/2012,after ???? scooped up all the shares below that price......a SLICK FISH is here in the pond and to stay.......size,duration,and intention are all unknown.
ps-big fish and no fundamental(being naked) do not mix well for minnows!!
Water under the bridge,GONE,move on. I'm pretty sure there are more 10-baggars out on the field WAITING for pickin........keep on TRYING and stay FOCUSED!
ps-ameh:high risk: Kyle is way too smart/"Wall Street" for any of us.
Never felt right with Kyle,former healthcare fund manager,and "business model of 1%-2% net at best" he represented; therefore "watch and no touching!"; also their style is Too "Wall Street" for me to sleep well at night!!
There is an "old sore thumb" stock flirting at me,no makeup,no body,and no.....; but its kind of cute(beer goggle) once you are used to it,and started liking it more and more;it may just pull itself out of the dump and ?????? The stock is our "old flame":djrt.....coming to life and sexy?????
ps- Problem: without beer goggle,I still like it: LOVE!!! I'm in trouble. I guess it is my term to be the "Sugar Daddy!"
I'm clueless and way off on this one too.....my fundamental approach has limitations but it protects me from the downside....I respect your 2 1/2 year duration and played the role of MM...I hope WFCF and others can make up for the shortfall soon!!
Fish that got away: PSGY;IVDN;.....but too few to mention!!
ps-I still got my rod,plenty of bait,and a stack of "kitchen pass!"
This was written by Tim many moons ago:
".......As we move into the future, our continuing promise to our shareholders is simple:
1 We will diligently work every day to increase the profitability and value of your company and thus your shares. Remember, Dale, Ned and Glenn are significant shareholders and only gain if the share price increases so we're all working toward the same goal.
2 We will treat our stock, and yours, as precious and avoid unnecessary dilution of that stock
3 We will continue to resist the temptation to divert excessive capital, that could be used for growth, into short term stock promotions that only provide temporary gain. Instead we will focus on true growth that will result in sustained increases in share price......."
http://www.racingadventure.com/investor-relations/
ps- So far so good,the company has expanded and NO DILUTION YET!! NOT BAD for a company with MC<$1.0 million...If this is NOT VALUE,I don't know what is!! Ccccchhhhhhhhheeeeeaaaaapppp ......... even to a scavenger buyer like me,low of the lows.
Another tailwind is brewing: Animal Rights Legislation S. 3239
http://www.freeslo.com/news/national/item/618-alert-egg-prices-to-quadruple?
ps- More boots on the ground.Is this why IMI acquired ICS(60% interest)????
A trophy catch again this week:
BS Five Rivers Cattle Feeding - Kuner Feedlot
Producer #: 120514010449
State: CO
Supplier Type: USV Plus Feedyard
This location is approved for:
NHTC - (Initial Approval: 6/21/2012)
Source and Age - (Initial Approval: 6/21/2012)
2011
JBS Five Rivers - Gilcrest Feedyard
Producer #: 110908092819
State: CO
Supplier Type: Finishing Yard
NHTC - (Initial Approval: 9/29/2011)
Source and Age - (Initial Approval: 9/29/2011)
ps- This dynamo(Pacman) just keep on moving(gobble up)!!
At one point today the stock was "stolen":
Bid $0.013,Ask $0.020 134.2K ..... WOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWW .... chhhhheeeeaaaappppppp!!
How time flies!!
PITTSBURGH, Aug. 24, 2011 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Innovative Designs, Inc. (IVDN.OB) has begun production/assembly of its new Insultex House-Wrap here in the United States. Insultex House-Wrap differs from any other wrap available in the building industry as it offers an R-Value of nearly 3, along with functional drainage. Innovative Designs, Inc. CEO Joseph Riccelli commented, "Insultex House-Wrap will revolutionize the building industry when it comes to vapor barrier protection. We are proud to be able to have our Insultex House-Wrap assembled here in the United States. Interest in the Insultex House-Wrap is astounding with inquiries from not only here in the U.S., but other countries."
and according to page 9,the latest Q
"In February 2012, we announced in a press release that our House Wrap product had drawn the interest of several large home builders and that samples had been sent to them for evaluation. In order for such home builders to buy our House Wrap it must have an ICC certification. ICC is the International Code Council. We are in the process of having a testing machine built that will ensure the House Wrap complies with ICC standards. We expect the testing machine to be completed in June, 2012. We are also in advanced discussions with a large nationwide retailer to sell our House Wrap. We are using an independent sales force experienced in this industry...."
Joe is clueless about what need to be done!!
Can you trust the progress report,which version?
Can you trust the test result,if/when there was one??
Can you trust Joe?? Period.
Million dollar question:
Can Joe creates more mirage keeping the faithful intoxicated and never realizing the emperor has no cloth??
ps-Without fundamental,the bubble always pop!
Holding the bag.........or get out before others did!! I smell blood and fear on this wounded prey and its faithful shareholders: BLOODY SWEET!! Feeding of the almost dead is my game;I'm the low of the lows.
ps- This vulture buyer believes the stock is worth no more less than $0.10 pps in the next 2 Q,subjective to my bias of course,and always.
Any guess for the oversea write-off?? One of the driver for the filing delay,66% likely;a new CPA firm,33% likely;anyone(other than the tribe) can only bear Gene's smell for few quarters before freaking out!!
ps- Smell test beats any other test!! 100% likely.
Quarter ended 4/30/2012-
Sale $45K
SG&A $194K
Net loss -$184K
Position:
Cash $54K
A/R $37K
Inventory $629K
Current liabilities $332K
Long term portion on note payable $353K
Quarterly Outlook:
July 31 2012:loss of -$175K
Last quarter: loss of -$66K
Likely Scenarios before End of 2012:
Issuance of more stock
............
............
Current business model is flawed and unsustainable!!!
ps-PR of Insultex for construction industry is for the naive,a pipe dream!! 66% likely.
"..What if Insultex has the same slow start just like the Arctic Armor had?? And how likely,based on Joe's track record?? How big a $$$$ HOLE and how many years LONG???.." My concern back in 9/2011
Forward looking "crude estimate" for the balance of 2012
2Q:
Sale $0.91 million,net income -$100k,55% gross,65% SG&A;
3Q:
Sale $0.95 million,net income -$100K,55% gross,65% SG&A;
4Q:
Sale $0.96 million,net income -$100k,55% gross,65% SG&A.
or
For 2012: EPS=-$0.02 based on 24 million total shares.
Any net income below -$100k loss per Q,I would take as a plus....if there was no dilution in 2012.....this company is CHEEEEEEAAAAAPPPPPP!!!
MC is down below $10.00 million ..........
I like your work and the company progress.Thanks.
An expert gold bug is all excited about the scale of protein demand(soft commodity) that no one had seen before...as hundreds of millions people rising out of poverty.....daily diet eating of 2000 calories from 800 calories ..........
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/5/23_Donald_Coxe.html
ps-Since 2008,I believe soft commodity investment is better than hard commodity investment;and according to Jim Roger,agriculture investment is asymmetric bets!! Proof in the pudding: Leucadia National purchase of 79% of National Beef Packing for $868 million!!
"Be fearful when others are greedy;Be greedy when others are fearful!" Warren Buffet
Bid $0.02,Ask $0.03........investors are turning their backs on the stock!!
Last and only concern after reviewing latest 10Q,as a fundamental investor:
Top-line seems weaker than I expected;and everything else at/above my expectations. A great price at $0.03,a steal at below $0.3!!