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asuhowe, sorry for the pain today. i can only speak of my own experiences in cortex over years, and they have been very positive for me. maybe just pulling up a google chart and seeing how it seems that every time the sky is falling, cor finds a way to bounce back.
at the end of 2002 everyone thought cor was dead and buried, .70 -.80 for most of the last half of 2002, and 1st quarter of 2003. then over 4 in sept 2003.
the last 10 years are riddled with these spikes in Cor, the trick is to get in, or dollar cost avg down, if possible, during the "getting creamed" days/weeks.
this time they are getting creamed with money in the bank to give themselves some time to regroup.... i love that fact.
Best of luck on this difficult day.
I so agree, but it is so hard to do. They just did their pipe, 18 million or so in cash, almost zero debt, and they have other compounds to expand on. Buying cor when it gets creamed is the best way to play it, weather averaging down, or getting in.
I have been buying all morning. Some on this board thought I was nuts for selling at 1.70, but I got in early this year at 1.14 when everyone thought Cor was a bust. Cor is not a bust this time around either, imho, and I think these are going to look like fire sale prices in the not to distant future. These clouds will pass, imho......
I saw that 141 million in cash and 110 million in debt. Leaves 31 million positive. Also saw 2.43 cash/share, but no shares published where I looked, so I just divided the 141 million by 2.43 and got near 58 million shares with 31 million cash after debt. Not bad, but I don't know their burn rate.
Like I said I don't know CRGN well enough, but you certainly have called it correctly a bunch of times.
I do know COR pretty well, at least I have never lost money in it, in over 15+ years, although I have had to hold it a while before I sold a few times. I can't even count the times I've owned it. This year I have booked approx 49% profit on COR before this mornings buying spree. I bought a good bunch at 1.14 early this year and sold at 1.70. Maybe this time the odds will catch up to me.
Cor has 18 or so million cash, just did a pipe, near 0 debt, and a fairly slow burn rate and other products to push in their pipeline.
Anyway, thanks again and good luck to both of us!
Good Points All, Aiming4. They can and will push other options/compounds in the coming days/weeks/months, with the money they now have after the financing.
I think it was barron's, (not sure,) that had a great recent story on why it was not wise, or at least what had happened to, companies that went after the FDA's review board complaint process. It was not pretty for those companies, so going forward it may prove wise cor doesn't go down that path.
I have been buying all morning and think I am right about where I want to be with Cor for now.
GLTU and once again sorry for the rough morning....
Likely another good call, I don't know the company well enough to hang and got out. I have been buying COR all morning however.
Hello Aiming, It's not a loss until you sell. I know it's a hard day, but no way I would sell in here unless I needed the cash for other things, a legit concern. Cor has done this countless times over the years, then one day, the clouds clear, they are talking about a better mousetrap, and the price recovers. That's the time to sell. jmho......
nakedmouse, sorry for your paper loss, but if news of this had leaked, it would have dropped like a tank the last couple weeks. this is typical bio investing, imho
I just added maybe 20k shares at .65, are you kidding, this is a FIRE SALE......
I am in buying Cor with both fists, adding as it drops. Cor is still in one of the best positions I have seen it in all these years, on a bad news day. They just put money in the bank.
sold at the open for 1.04, huge volume in first minute....
CRGN just dropped to .92, so I picked up some more. Interesting morning.
GLTU
Thanks Dew, Do you think the 48% pre market haircut is justified? Seems harsh to me as they now have cash going forward and other products to "push" to the media in the days ahead...
I just began a small 8k share position this morning as I think Cor is a great buy under a buck, ADHD or no ADHD.
Thanks again.
I bought a little Cor under a buck as well, 18 million in the bank, a little over a million/mo burn rate, and plenty of time to "push" other pipeline candidates, which they have.
Hello tonyvanw, I agree the news release I read looked like in one sentence they said the company completely withdrew its app. And then the next sentence seemed to reverse that????
I have started a small COR position again this morning, as I think under a dollar is a great deal for COR, now with 18 million or so in the bank and plenty of time to push other products before going back to the markets to get more financing.......
BP deals may not look so good, but this has been the carrot on the end of the stick for years.
I think COR bounces back, but it will take time.
I bought the 2100 shares they had at 1.00 even, of course cheaper now.
Cor is getting hammered as well this am, so I am looking to get back in over there as well. Been in and out of that one for 15-17 years.
Sorry Aiming4 and Cor Longs. Cortex has a way of bouncing back from these setbacks, if you can resist the urge to sell when it is bottoming out.
I will be looking to buy again.
Take care and sorry for the rough start to your day.
At some point this will become a buy again, any idea of the downside?
CuraGen Drug Fails Midstage Study
Thursday October 11, 7:41 am ET
CuraGen Drug for Cancer Treatment Side Effect Fails Midstage Study, Program Discontinued
BRANFORD, Conn. (AP) -- Biotechnology company CuraGen Corp. said Thursday its drug candidate velafermin, aimed at preventing mouth ulcerations in cancer patients, failed in a midstage study and that it's discontinuing its development.
The drug was being tested as a treatment to prevent oral mucositis, a condition in patients undergoing chemotherapy treatment. The lining of the throat become damaged by the treatment and ulcers can form.
Based on the Phase II clinical trial results, the company said it will discontinue the drug's development. It will focus on developing belinostat, aimed at treating solid tumors and malignancies. That drug candidate is now in Phase II clinical trials.
Shares of CuraGen fell 14 cents, or 9.7 percent, to $1.31 in premarket trading.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071011/curagen_study.html?.v=1
I missed what is going on this morning, just see it at a buck pre market. Ouch and sorry for the longs.
I chickened out and was one of the sellers near the low the other day at 1.37 a .20 point haircut from my most recent purchase.
When I read you first post, I just figured I was one of those ones that sold out too early.....
My cyto position has gone from the smaller range into the "larger" range for me over the last week as I have been building.
Congrats on the Snus, I have been in and out of that one many times, 10-25k shares at a time, below .60 is a gift in that one imho, based on their cash alone.
Glad you are still monitoring this one surf. Interesting action before tomorrow's Bio conference.
Thanks again.
Yikes, I guess that gym g nailed it that folks are taking/giving up positions waiting on this news:
"We look forward to reporting top-line efficacy and safety results in mid-October, which we hope will confirm the data observed previously with 30 mcg/kg velafermin in our first Phase II trial for the prevention of severe OM."
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070806/nem096.html?.v=10
Hello Surf, Another good call on this one. What are you thinking on the up side for GNTA this time around? I have a fair amount of this one now.
It does seem to be falling off the edge of the earth on not much going on, so maybe news on Thursday night/Friday morning will give it some life.......
Good call on the CRGN, I am still in, but you nailed it!
Thanks again.
hello surf, i was wondering if you are still holding/adding to our cyto position. This one had been so beaten down the last several months, I couldn't resist taking a position in it today, nothing too serious. I am guessing there a lot of folks waiting to hear what they have to say on Thursday, or are selling in advance of not expecting much.....
Hello gfp927z, Do you an idea of how much the pilot trial in Europe might cost? I am trying to keep my eye on cor's burn rate, recently posted here from a R&R Oct. 1st, 2007 report as:
FINANCIALS
Cash (pro forma) $18MM
Burn in next 12 months $16MM
I have no way of knowing the accuracy of the R&R reported report, or if the European trial was included in these estimates, but for my own investment use, I am going to assume the report is somewhat accurate, and the European trials were not included in the burn rate.
I guess one could also wonder if R&R just used the trailing 12 months burn rate and then just regurgitated it, and should Cor not have to burn through the millions if took to appease the FDA's request for more data, then the burn rate would actually be less going forward. Arggg. I haven't spent enough time on this.....
Anyway, I want to error on the side of caution, and deduct the estimated cost from the remaining estimated cash levels as time marches on, for my own personal "estimate".
If for whatever reason, Cor does not have either streaming revenue from a BP deal, or a generous upfront from anything they have in their arsenal, well, I want to be prepared by mid 08.
Thanks for your thoughtful posts.....
Thanks for that gym g, I had missed that one. That may help explain the recent strength.
Hello Surf, I was wondering what you are thinking about the current chart for CRGN as it sits just below that 1.57 mark for the second consecutive close? It seems relatively strong in here to me, but I value your opinion and was hoping to get your thoughts.
Hope you are on an extended "surfing" weekend, and thanks again!
Hello Surf, I have been following this one for a while and building a position, and I am curious why you choose this morning to buy more? Have you been building a position for an event, or maybe you just like the chart
Thanks if you have time to reply....
Nice bounce this am, 6.5% EOM
Thanks Surf, I was able to grab a bunch of that DYAX at 3.74 pre market before it shot to 4.05. It will be interesting to see how the morning goes....
Take care and thanks again.
Hello Catty, I am already out, which likely means the price will take off. Yahoo showed them with no debt as of june 30, 07, but with only 1.15 share in cash, vs, 5.50 share price..... And I don't have time to figure cash burn rate, so I sold already.
Surf thinking they may need to go to the market and issue new shares was enough for me to keep watching it with a zero downside. (of course that means a zero upside as well if it takes off....)
GLTU and thanks for your posts.
If this is a legit R&R release, then it looks like either a BP or pipe within maybe 6-8 months at the cash burn level cited, depending on how close they want to cut it:
FINANCIALS
Cash (pro forma) $18MM
Burn in next 12 months $16MM
Keeping an eye on that burn rate should priority number 1 for many on this board in the coming months after that last pipe, imho,...If outlays, delays, requests for more info, new hires, or anything that burns cash, increase rapidly for any reason, then duck!
Hello jddividends, Please know that I sold out of a lot of my positions to raise cash, cor being one of the positions, because I am uneasy holding a lot of stock this, and most Octobers.
So what happens today, Oct. 1st? Well of course the market takes off....
I used to really have a hard time selling because I would not have tolerated it very well if the stock then raced off into the sunset. These days I can take a profit much easier and really truly wish the buyer of my shares well with their new investment.
My Cor profit was approx 49% before commissions, and there was a lot of those, because I was buying in small 1-3k lots for several weeks as an attempt not to run the price up against myself. I do this often in thinly traded stocks that I am interested in.
So I took 49% profit, but I could have had a near triple had I sold after the hold was lifted. So, I am not sure how smart I was in the overall scheme of things...
OT, did you ever look at the old JDN realty, it was bought out by DDR and soared, I just mention it because of the dividend in your user name..Private reply would be great, as I am interested in dividend paying stocks as well, and likely more so, as those are where serious money belong IMHO....
Take Care and thanks for your thoughtful posts.
1.81, They are running for cover! Good Call.
I would hate to be short in this one today....
I had just 10k in for .5951, and they filled it, once I called and they checked the routing, at .59 even.
I think I may hold these for a while. I had traded in and out a bunch of times last week. I just kind of go with my gut on this one and play some.
GLTU
Order just went through, I had to call my broker as the stock was trading for several minutes below my ask. He put me on hold and said he would check the routing. All of a sudden BOOM, a ton of pent up orders went through, mine included, at about 1% less than what I put it in for.
I am guessing they had some kind of bottleneck that they have now fixed.
I have order in this morning, has not executed yet.
I think that surf mentioned he was in before the fall, or just lost all interest in it....learned some lessons, and moved on.
Not sure how much more it falls before it comes out with a strategy, and if Bayer keeps any interest in it at all, well than, that would certainly be viewed as positive since sonus announced they fully expect bayer to bail.
I was trying to find any info on if Bayer had to pay a fee to exit the relationship, but was unable to do so...
GLTU
Hello Surf, I was wondering if you know off hand an approx burn rate for BPA? I took a small position in it this morning and find the stock interesting.....
I didn't catch the conference replay, so I was wondering how far along the Phase III trial they have progressed. Seems like I read something about them just starting, but I need to go back and look....
Thanks as always for any help.