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Once again, TA warned of this pennant fall out.
The stock price is still overbought after no news has appeared on the heels of such a sharp June rally. Demand has dried up. This has nothing to do with AZN or any other news. It is a classic rollover from a consolidation pattern due mainly to pressure from the IBB and market bears looking to short recent rallies.
It was hard to sell some at this stage, but today cast a bearish cloud over the near term. Today’s move has opened the door to more selling. Now it looks like we test the previously broken resistance (now support).
I’m afraid we’ve seen the highs (4.47 )before the announcement. It’s sad that the run up hype couldn’t force a closure the 4.50 gap and bulls couldn’t pull the pps up above the ice line. That’s not good if continuation is announced.
If anyone thinks yesterdays price behavior was meaningless, then you must enjoy giving back 50% of the recent rally.
"My guess is that they could be hedging against a continuation of Reduce-It, rather than an early stop for efficacy. Enough short-term traders are involved now that a continuation would result in probably a 15-20% drop in one day... at which time all of us real investors and the institutions would "back up the truck"."
They know that a continuation probably means a ‘lower low’ is in the cards for the first time since the low in 2014. That changes everything – technically and fundamentally. Technically, the trend is broken, the stock fails to close the 4.50 gap, and fails to reach the ice line. Bears will smell blood.
Fundamentally,.. no more ‘asymmetric investment.’ JL will tell you (as if he knows) the reason for continuation is not efficacy but events, but who really knows? With a board full of investors who have doubled down on this stock multiple times, will they risk it all on a pure binary final event laced with a new element of doubt? The game changes if continuation results. The risk of holding so many shares goes way up IMO.
JL - the history of the stock price speaks for itself. It very much reflected a different picture than the one posters painted with their fundamental dogma. They ignored TA warning signs.
FFS comes down on me, but I am not his adversary...My alias pays tribute to a historical trader who is given credit for being one of the original "technical traders"..It's just that technical trading like the rest of the stock market has evolved and is evolving with "quants" creating new algorithms daily; many of them designed the "counter trade" against unsophisticated technical traders.."Turtle Traders" point out that all technical trading systems are subject to "system extinction".
The real Jesse Livermore would have managed this trade differently than most on this board don't you think?
Kiwi -
Collective intelligence on investment message boards , where divergence view are be presented equally ....should generate better returns then following an opinion leader ( whether that leader is fundamentally or TA orientated )
This is not herd mentality .
Posters such as PY , who is short AMRN , actually are healthy for this board.
Considering ALL views , enables better decisions ...the research demonstrates this.
Kiwi - Why Ihub is good for you ...as long as you aren't swayed by "experts "
Not when it comes to investing/trading:
Herd Mentality is the Psychology That Leads to Big Trading Losses
Precisely why TA is so useful at deciphering whether a stock's price behavior reflects or refutes the optimism of the 'fundamental' crowd.
Here is an update to the charts I posted last Friday:
Weekly:
a hire low is under construction.
Intra-day:
As expected, a slump to the 38%-50% retrace level. A squeeze has developed with a rising RSI and MACD - presaging an upside breakout soon.
This could be the base needed to bust through overhead resistance.
I mentioned this before. Is there a chance they delay enough to reach the final event, then announce foregoing 80% finalization in favor of completion of the trial earlier than anticipated?
In the money calls. LOL
YIPPIE - Lol! Well, from your charts can't you tell us what happens tomorrow instead of wait and see what happens tomorrow?
Why would I do that when I'm liquidating in the money calls and looking for the best price? BTW, just so you know, I did sell this latest bearish lower high (calls and shares). I did so while everyone is scratching their heads wondering why the pps is falling with "no apparent reason"
KIWI -
FFS isn't an open higher but close lower then previous days action .... a short term negative .
Not sure how often that follows thru .
MACD I tend to find more of a slow moving confirming ...change of trend..indicator.
By the way ...IMHO none of these are bullet proof indicators ..at extremes I find them useful.
Thanks Doc!
Sentiment, thank you for the information. Very helpful
TradeStation Radar Screen with my own programming.
any positive PR could push the stock significantly higher and very quickly. Is that not a significant risk to short?
Yes it is, but in shorty's mind, the price doesn't telegraph that yet.
Think about where you would put your stop loss if you were short since $12.00. They won't capitulate until the down TL + the .32 cents level (where prices accelerated down) is taken out. Until then, they see lower lows on a weekly chart.
Thanks Mapman. I don't currently have a position but will be looking for an entry soon. FWIW, here is my assessment of its current technical stance.
First the long term picture (weekly chart).
It looks like a convergence of .32 resistance with the down TL could pressure prices sometime next week. Awesome weekly bar however. In fact, its weekly performance last week produced a pocket pivot (one of only 5 on the scan) with awesome rate of change in volume.
Neverthless, it needs to put in a higher low (red arrow above) first before serious takeoff in my opinion.
Next the daily chart:
The nice breakout of a squeeze pattern is threatening to fill the March 17th gap. Unfortunately however, triple resistance overhead could turn prices back before a confirmed down trendline breakout can ensue. This chart's expectations echo the weekly; a retest of the breakout will give us the needed weekly higher low.
Could we see prices continue to slice through this overhead resistance? Perhaps, but I don't think so. The intra-day charts agree:
A bearish MACD x-over combined with an overbought RSI, begs for a slump to the 38% - 50% retracement level. That's were I'll be looking to enter.
Wave volume confirms this:
We see a climax selloff, followed by a sharp reversal - but the wave volume is not equally strong (not all shorts have covered). I believe another retrace, as mentioned, is needed for them to finally cave in and push this stock higher in a serious way. That will hopefully coincide with positive news, adding gunpowder to the fire -->
Thanks Marzan, I've followed NWBO a little bit but can you give me a small fundamental summary of why the PPS bottomed out and what's on the horizon as far as catalysts?
Cheers,
FFS
Mapman,
This is not a very strong indicator. Here is some good information on island reversals:
http://thepatternsite.com/islandrev.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" >http://thepatternsite.com/islandrev.html[tag]Island reversals -
Thomas Bullkowski[/tag]
IMO, tho NWBO has shown a nice breakout from a bottom, it is up against some stiff overhead resistance. Will likely retreat before closing the 3/17/17 gap.
Sorry, you are correct. Nevertheless, CARA presents a good example of how far traders will sell a stock (in spite of a bullish breakout) when conditions are suddenly perceived to be negative. The 200MA is solid support.
Do we know if converted shareholders ever covered their hedged shorts? If not, perhaps they are covering these short positions with previously converted shares? That would answer why this tight consolidation with high volume and no price movement has ensued. Perhaps some have liquidated their equity position altogether in favor of December out of the money leaps (which have been unusually active)?
JF- fantastic post!
Announcement in the morning?
Similar to the Sept. announcement on the heels of a Holiday week, will the company make an announcement on the ensuing Monday after the Fourth of July- tomorrow?
Did the Holiday's enable time for necessary travel/meetings? Will there be a similar pattern?
We'll see.
Thanks Kiwi. Enjoy your day.
Raf, thank you for sharing that article. I talked my oncologist into an off label Rx 9 months ago when Zum had shared similar supporting research.
As a post colon cancer/hemi-colectomy patient, my digestive system is frequently hypersensitive and dysfunctional. Digestion is completely normal when on V however. I can eat anything. If I discontinue for a week, I notice a return of the former symptoms. But if I resume taking V the night before, they're gone the next day.
I agree with CB, patients on V will notice cause and effect changes to their overall health. R-It arm patient's will no doubt experience a mood elevation and better outlook on life; start exercising, etc. - all combining to magnify efficacy.
Serious? You missed the meaning of my statement. Tell me what would be more painful to you:
1- To be stopped out at 2.92 with a small loss
or
2- To be on the sidelines (because of your SL) and miss a 400% gain?
kiwi -
Since Joe Kennedy ( Amarin ) seems to want to reduce his exposure as evidenced by his decisions late 2016 ...maybe others might consider like wise .
HD -
the reason of the longer run-up: DM recommended the stop and it is at the Steering Committee now (which wasn't the case - or was a 1 minute meeting - at 1st IA)
We will know soon.
"Up almost 50% since my June " James Murphy " low buys"
Too bad you sold CB's "drool"
JF- mean no offense. Just get tired of your unsolicited cryptic interpretation of my posts from a negative slant. Clearly you don't like what I have to say so please start the new quarter with me on "ignore"
Thank you and
Happy 4th
Jf- maybe yah better pay more attention to the chart? You wouldn't be so angry w/ less shares than you used to have and perhaps wouldn't have said this:
"Be a dreamer for the hours of anticipation and the enjoyment of living in a wonderful fantasyland.
Be a hard eyed ruthless investor/trader so you can afford to be comfortable enough to dream. "
Don't misquote me (you seem to enjoy doing that). I didn't say your "posts" are "pathetic"
I said you "stupid little trading scheme using member's posts as a contrarian indicator" is.
Kiwi, count "LOL" also ;)